Estimation of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.- Present and Future

[CCP]

You are trying to prove something without offering any arguments. If your objective is to shout, then you sure achieved your objective.

I have not seen any viable argument from you except the same tired arguments offered by American establishment after 1998 testing.

My stand is against nuclear weapons if you read my posts. I believe that nuclear weapons will only bring misery to the world. Nothing good can come out of this devilish desire to kill humanity.

"I can confirm India has TN warheads up to 200KT. These will work". nice argument.

 

[bose]

1.You need success at least once to possible simulate it at your "supercomputers".

2.How can you confirm 200kt and outside world can not detected the earthquake of it?
List of nuclear weapons tests of India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

BTW, we have to test each rifle after produce, how can you said "India does not need testing to refine its nukes."

This Chinese Genius is back with a bang !!

so wikipedia is the source for argument ...

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Does not matter. India is MORE LIKELY to have higher yield warheads than the lower yield ones.

The strategy of India is based on smaller number of higher yield warheads.

I am sure for a country that has been to moon and mars this should not be a surprise?

 

[LETHALFORCE]

India had at least 100kt yield in 1998. Also hinted at computer simulated testing.

'We have an adequate scientific database for designing ... a credible nuclear deterrent'


http://www.cnn.com/TECH/computing/9805/14/india.nuke.computers/index.html
Computer simulations can substitute for nuclear tests

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Supercomputer simulates nuclear explosion down to the molecular level

 

[CCP]

This Chinese Genius is back with a bang !!

so wikipedia is the source for argument ...

Well, much better than your defence minister friend's source or your mother's friend's son's source.

 

[CCP]

India had at least 100kt yield in 1998. Also hinted at computer simulated testing.

'We have an adequate scientific database for designing ... a credible nuclear deterrent'


CNN - Computer simulations can substitute for nuclear tests - May 14, 1998
Computer simulations can substitute for nuclear tests

If you read the link , you should find:

"That's nothing new. The United States, France and other nuclear countries have long used computers to simulate the action of nuclear weapons, feeding in data obtained from actual bomb tests.
The United States, which has conducted more than 1,000 nuclear weapons tests since World War II, now uses its data in supercomputers that process more than a trillion operations a second -- powerful enough to simulate how different components of a nuclear weapon will behave."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, you need at least success once before you able to simulate.
BTW, even US having problem on that kind of simulation.

 

[bose]

Well, much better than your defence minister friend's source or your mother's friend's son's source.

What happens if the defense minister's friend edit the same wikipidia ??

 

[CCP]

What happens if the defense minister's friend edit the same wikipidia ??

Do it then.

 

[bose]

Do it then.

so wiki is not a source to believe ...

 

[CCP]

so wiki is not a source to believe ...

OK, lets believe your defence minister friend's source.

 

[sgarg]

If you read the link , you should find:

"That's nothing new. The United States, France and other nuclear countries have long used computers to simulate the action of nuclear weapons, feeding in data obtained from actual bomb tests.
The United States, which has conducted more than 1,000 nuclear weapons tests since World War II, now uses its data in supercomputers that process more than a trillion operations a second -- powerful enough to simulate how different components of a nuclear weapon will behave."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, you need at least success once before you able to simulate.
BTW, even US having problem on that kind of simulation.

India has conducted 6 tests so far and Indian scientists feel confident in designing warheads based on data collected from these tests.

What is your problem? You are arguing needlessly about yield of tests. The yield of a test will be kept low for obvious reasons. India does not have vast unpopulated areas.

Even if TN device did not achieve full secondary yield (as alleged by Americans) in 1998 test, this does not mean scientists could not fix the problem. You are clutching at straws.

The possibility is India's entire arsenal is composed of higher yield weapons (boosted fission and TN). No sub-kiloton weapon at all.

 

[CCP]

India has conducted 6 tests so far and Indian scientists feel confident in designing warheads based on data collected from these tests.

How can you collect data for TN from the failed TN test.

What is your problem? You are arguing needlessly about yield of tests. The yield of a test will be kept low for obvious reasons. India does not have vast unpopulated areas.

No, India does have enough space, and at the failed test"Two stage thermonuclear device with fusion boosted primary, intended for missile warhead; test design yield 45 kt, with a 200 kt deployed yield."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_India

So, " India does not have vast unpopulated areas" is not a good story.

Even if TN device did not achieve full secondary yield (as alleged by Americans) in 1998 test, this does not mean scientists could not fix the problem. You are clutching at straws.

Again,"with a 200 kt deployed yield."

How can you" fix the problem".LOL

The possibility is India's entire arsenal is composed of higher yield weapons (boosted fission and TN). No sub-kiloton weapon at all.

What are you joking about?
If you never conducta success TN test , means your can have only fission bomb that yield under 25kt and sizes are not good for missile warheads.

 

[Known_Unknown]

How can you collect data for TN from the failed TN test.

If failed tests did not yield any data, then how do you suppose successive tests could ever be successful? I'm not just talking about the nukes here, but any product that has ever been put into production. If a car fails a safety test, does that mean the designers were able to collect no data from the test? Then how do they know what to fix to make the car pass successive tests? To assume that only a successful experiment yields data to improve the design would be to not have even the faintest idea of product design and development.

In the case of the nuclear program, even if we assume that the TN design was only partially successful (according to western critics, the 2nd stage of the TN design failed to ignite), Indian scientists would have known what *did not* work, and then subsequently using computer simulations, finalized designs to a higher confidence level of success. It could be said that India's TN bombs have not been tested as extensively as the Chinese ones have, however that hardly matters unless Chinese leaders are willing to call India's bluff in the event of a nuclear showdown.

Somehow I doubt Xi Jinping or anyone else would prefer to test your theory by putting millions of inhabitants of Beijing or Shanghai at risk.

 

[CCP]

If failed tests did not yield any data, then how do you suppose successive tests could ever be successful? I'm not just talking about the nukes here, but any product that has ever been put into production. If a car fails a safety test, does that mean the designers were able to collect no data from the test? Then how do they know what to fix to make the car pass successive tests? To assume that only a successful experiment yields data to improve the design would be to not have even the faintest idea of product design and development.

You do need to pass successive tests, right?

In the case of the nuclear program, even if we assume that the TN design was only partially successful (according to western critics, the 2nd stage of the TN design failed to ignite), Indian scientists would have known what *did not* work, and then subsequently using computer simulations, finalized designs to a higher confidence level of success. It could be said that India's TN bombs have not been tested as extensively as the Chinese ones have, however that hardly matters unless Chinese leaders are willing to call India's bluff in the event of a nuclear showdown.

There happens if only 2 models exist, one of them will certainly work, and you tried one of them.

Somehow I doubt Xi Jinping or anyone else would prefer to test your theory by putting millions of inhabitants of Beijing or Shanghai at risk.

Well, I just state a fact and not assume anything here.

You assumed a lot , and I doubt Modi prefer to test your theory by putting billions of inhabitant of India in risk.

 

[Known_Unknown]

You do need to pass successive tests, right?

Successive tests were simulated on supercomputers, obviously. Ideally more blast data would be useful, however zero data existed before the first test, yet it was partially successful. So with the data from the test, the design can be refined further.

There happens if only 2 models exist, one of them will certainly work, and you tried one of them.

The successive models/designs were simulation based.

Well, I just state a fact and not assume anything here.

You assumed a lot , and I doubt Modi prefer to test your theory by putting billions of inhabitant of India in risk.

I assumed nothing. I just questioned whether your "doubt" regarding India's TN design is strong enough for the Chinese leaders to act in a risky manner during any nuclear showdown. Modi doesn't have to test any theories, we know that nuclear war between India and Chinese will be devastating for both. It's YOU who seems to doubt that.

 

[CCP]

Successive tests were simulated on supercomputers, obviously. Ideally more blast data would be useful, however zero data existed before the first test, yet it was partially successful. So with the data from the test, the design can be refined further.

First know car only needs pass test on computers...

The successive models/designs were simulation based.

Then it can only working digital world.

I assumed nothing. I just questioned whether your "doubt" regarding India's TN design is strong enough for the Chinese leaders to act in a risky manner during any nuclear showdown. Modi doesn't have to test any theories, we know that nuclear war between India and Chinese will be devastating for both. It's YOU who seems to doubt that.

Nuclear war can only cancel India from the earth.
Lets see what do you have to hit China right now? India is covered by Chinese short/mid range missiles.

 

[Known_Unknown]

@CCP As you are well aware, India has been making steady progress over the past few years. We have increased the range of our ballistic missiles to over 5000 km and are deploying SSBNs as well. By 2018-19, we will have a 8-12000 km range Agni VI as well. If you weren't so spooked by India's progress, you and your fellow Chinamen would not be here in the first place!

 

[CCP]

@CCP As you are well aware, India has been making steady progress over the past few years. We have increased the range of our ballistic missiles to over 5000 km and are deploying SSBNs as well. By 2018-19, we will have a 8-12000 km range Agni VI as well. If you weren't so spooked by India's progress, you and your fellow Chinamen would not be here in the first place!

Yeah, still importing everything.

 

[sgarg]

You do need to pass successive tests, right?

There happens if only 2 models exist, one of them will certainly work, and you tried one of them.

Well, I just state a fact and not assume anything here.

You assumed a lot , and I doubt Modi prefer to test your theory by putting billions of inhabitant of India in risk.

@CCP, life is about compromises. You are correct theoretically that a weapon has to be tested thoroughly. However nuclear weapons fall into a different category.

India has decided to build warheads based on refined designs in the absence of actual testing. India is confident about its ability. You can call it a risk but that is your view.

Israel is rumoured to have more than 100 warheads. How much testing Israel has done??

India's space vehicles reached moon and Mars on first try. So the situation with atom bomb is not as bad as it sounds.