Estimation of Indian Nuclear Arsenal.- Present and Future

[LETHALFORCE]

We will not have too many excesses if we consider 20kg 90% HEU blankets with 5kg trigger. In ten years we will produce 280 warheads with 300000 SWU/yr.
However there are excesses I have chosen to ignore to arrive at this figure. I am using a shp of Arihant which is double the current value. I have assumed we will operate Arihant in a profile similar to the American submarines. They are known to run through their fuel quicker than anyone else in the world through aggressive maneuvers. The final reactor vessels of Indian submarines are expected to produce 180 MW as opposed to 90MW quoted. This is expected to be peak power which will be available for sudden maneuvering when being tailed. This deliberate lax counting will also ensure the estimates are not over the top if we operate newer vessels with higher enrichment factors for U-235. So even the most aggressive usage is accounted for by these estimates. I am quiet confident on the numbers.

The TN weapons are being build like the Russian and American weapons. We are not going to use depleted u-235 from the numbers. So our designs must be fairly close to w-88 warheads in terms of weight to yield ratio with HEU blankets. 475KT for a 350 to 400 kg TN weapon. This also means our missile development of ICBM's is complete with Agni VI. Agni VI all composite will be MIRV and will have a global reach. It's equal to the best in the world. We also have the option with HEU of using the initial HEU for only the trigger then replacing the depleted u-235 blankets with u-235 as time goes by. The nuclear arsenal will get stronger as years roll by. The possibility of a cap and reduce is gone.

when AGNI MIRV arrives we will smaller more compact warheads. I don't think we will exceed 200kt for AGNI.
Your number 475kt is IMO excessive especially when we are using MIRV on AGNI which has excellent CEP.

 

[Yusuf]

when AGNI MIRV arrives we will smaller more compact warheads. I don't think we will exceed 200kt for AGNI.
Your number 475kt is IMO excessive especially when we are using MIRV on AGNI which has excellent CEP.

W88 is as small as it gets and packs the punch. I am pleasantly surprised that someone thinks our bombs have the same level of sophistication as the US. Western intel does not think so.

 

[olivers]

when AGNI MIRV arrives we will smaller more compact warheads. I don't think we will exceed 200kt for AGNI.
Your number 475kt is IMO excessive especially when we are using MIRV on AGNI which has excellent CEP.

475KT is the yield for a MIRV W-88 which weighs 350kg. It uses 90%HEU blanket. So depending on the blanket our MIRV payload will vary from 200kt to 475KT for the same weight. It will also be variable yield using the booster canister to set the yield before launch. There is no other way to explain the HEU numbers. We are building a First world nuclear weapons program. Best in the world. We don't what a depleted uranium blanket in the long term. For now it will be 200KT. With only the triggers being 90% HEU. As we get more fissile material we will replace the depleted uranium with 90% HEU for the 475KT yields. Packing more bang for the buck as we move towards 2020. Also MIRV requires more compact warheads with bigger bang. Please note the weight of the warhead and not just the yield. If we don't want these weapons the HEU capacity expansion does not make sense. Having a 1000 TN warheads with 5kg HEU and depleted uranium blanket vs 200 TN with 25kg of HEU. I think it's the latter. Both yields will weigh the same. So the no of missiles is equal to number of warheads. This is why I have suggested the 475kt yield. Maybe we are not that good even that the yield will be closer to 300 or 350kt for HEU blanket.

W88 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[LETHALFORCE]

W88 is as small as it gets and packs the punch. I am pleasantly surprised that someone thinks our bombs have the same level of sophistication as the US. Western intel does not think so.

look at the CEP of our missiles last few all under 10. The Indian program does not
view the West as an adversary so not much attention is given to the program? Any
country that can send a rocket to the moon and launch 10 satellites in one shot
has automatically proven capability.

 

[Yusuf]

look at the CEP of our missiles last few all under 10. The Indian program does not
view the West as an adversary so not much attention is given to the program? Any
country that can send a rocket to the moon and launch 10 satellites in one shot
has autommatically proven capability.

Saar you are mixing sophistication of nuclear weapons with missiles.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

475KT is the yield for a MIRV W-88 which weighs 350kg. It uses 90%HEU blanket. So depending on the blanket our MIRV payload will vary from 200kt to 475KT for the same weight. It will also be variable yield using the booster canister to set the yield before launch. There is no other way to explain the HEU numbers. We are building a First world nuclear weapons program. Best in the world. We don't what a depleted uranium blanket in the long term. For now it will be 200KT. With only the triggers being 90% HEU. As we get more fissile material we will replace the depleted uranium with 90% HEU for the 475KT yields. Packing more bang for the buck as we move towards 2020. Also MIRV requires more compact warheads with bigger bang. Please note the weight of the warhead and not just the yield. If we don't want these weapons the HEU capacity expansion does not make sense. Having a 1000 TN warheads with 5kg HEU and depleted uranium blanket vs 200 TN with 25kg of HEU. I think it's the latter. Both yields will weigh the same. So the no of missiles is equal to number of warheads. This is why I have suggested the 475kt yield. Maybe we are not that good even that the yield will be closer to 300 or 350kt for HEU blanket.

W88 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I am assuming this would also mean a SLBM MIRV coming in the future similar to Trident where
most of the w-88 are used.

 

[olivers]

W88 is as small as it gets and packs the punch. I am pleasantly surprised that someone thinks our bombs have the same level of sophistication as the US. Western intel does not think so.

We had an obscure article on India defense magazine in 2009. The device tested in Pokhran was a variable yield warhead with a lot of modification on the w-88 design. So it was the best of it's class when it was tested. Now the western intel is right in one aspect. They are not extensively tested so they don't have to believe you. The HEU figures are so mismatched I had to adjust my calculations. Even with western intel figures we are talking 100 TN devices with depleted uranium blankets by 2020. Our fission device capability is well known. It's thousands of devices already if we choose to go down that path. I am not sure we want that many FBF's. They are a stopgap for the real buildup of HEU. So even today we have global deterrence. The good global deterrence is being build.

With 90% HEU blankets we will be close to the 475Kt yield. Our designs are good. The enrichment capacity in 1998 was not to our current levels. Which explains the decision to not use 90% HEU blanket. We just tested the device with the trigger, reduced depleted blanket. We even dug out the last device which had an alternative design which was supposed to be the sixth shot.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Saar you are mixing sophistication of nuclear weapons with missiles.

you are right I am really suprised the direction this thread has taken incredible. I am still puzzled how all
this will be achieved without a test?

 

[Yusuf]

I am assuming this would also mean a SLBM MIRV coming in the future similar to Trident where
most of the w-88 are used.

But off course. That is the aim.

 

[olivers]

I am assuming this would also mean a SLBM MIRV coming in the future similar to Trident where
most of the w-88 are used.

I think this is the real focus of the missile program now. Agni V was a distraction. To take attention away from the real developments. It was also given a lot of publicity. The real focus of DRDO is elsewhere.

 

[olivers]

Presently, he is leading three major system developments; A2p, a technologically challenging state-of-the-art system; a 5,000 km canister-launched A5 system; and a 6000 km A6 system with multiple warheads (MIRV) capable of launching both from the ground and underwater.

This was the slip-up which was covered with all this public jubilation over A5. Note our ranges are for a notional payload of 1 ton. It will always be 1 ton until the government of the day gets some ..... All that additional lead must be polluting the fishes of the Indian ocean. We should consider environmental reasons for a full test soon. :evil:
More tea leaves from earlier.

Also note of the three systems specified. A2p was Agni IV, 5000Km canister launched A5 is done. Well the A6 is all composite and the final variant. Will we house all of these missiles? I am not sure it depends on the cost. Arihant will be equiped with the final missile as opposed to a marge ring steel version. So it's the final missile in our ICBM series. It's already done in my opinion. A IV test used an all-composite design. A-V used a heavy A-III steel 1st stage and all others were composite. So A VI is all composite. So take your pick. Your three stages work. The large composite motors work in A V second stage. We don't know if the first stage was also composite motors with only a A-III steel body. So all of these are interchangeable. Dr Saraswat is on record staging this in an interview. We can upgrade AIII to be an Agni-V. There was also the important tea leaf which they disclosed. AV gives us the capacity to scale and so on. I don't remember his exact words. So basically the land launch of AIII/AIV/AV/AVI is a done deal. Total tests of all these systems will be around 12 or 15 with the Armed forces involved.

It's similar to how manufacturing works. The washing machine models of IFB. All of them are made in a similar way. Then they add or subtract a few components to achieve production efficiency. 60c water heater vs 90c water heater. More modes for washing etc. The base drum and the components remain the same. So the same thing applies here. Standardize the Agni series AIII to AV. Different stage materials give you different range and possibly price. You choose how many of each you want. If the threat profile changes you upgrade the cheaper missiles by swapping out the stages.

We have different components all tested together in AV except for the steel first stage. All composite was tested in A IV. So you know these components all work in final assembly. The only test we have not done or at least we have not disclosed is AVI configuration of all-composite. It's a mere technicality.

Once we canister launch A5 even that is out of the way. Underwater launches are similar to this canister launch and ignition will be above the water surface. These testes of AVI/AV/AIV underwater will not be on television. Our undersea launches are not public launches. So we will not hear about it for years. Then we will have a K series expose when a future threat is looming large.

 

[sukhish]

I have a question, how much of the weight will be reduced by using composites in the first two stages, as I know in the latest Agni-V test, the first two stages still used miraging steel and only the third and fourth stage used composite motors. if the latest agni-V weigh 50 tons, by how much it will come down to ?

 

[just4nikhilesh]

this a real bad news for both china and pak

 

[arnabmit]

I have a very noob question...

Can't nukes be tested guised as conventional weapons by scaling down proportionally all the components?

I mean, take a 400kg warhead, reduce the size of every component 10 times, and test it. The result can be extrapolated later to arrive at the performance of a full sized warhead.

 

[Yusuf]

I have a very noob question...

Can't nukes be tested guised as conventional weapons by scaling down proportionally all the components?

I mean, take a 400kg warhead, reduce the size of every component 10 times, and test it. The result can be extrapolated later to arrive at the performance of a full sized warhead.

Sub kiloton tests. Can be detected

 

[Decklander]

Sub kiloton tests. Can be detected

CTBT does not include sub KT nukes and testing of sub KT nukes is allowed afaik.

 

[Yusuf]

CTBT does not include sub KT nukes and testing of sub KT nukes is allowed afaik.

Agree but its frowned upon as will be considered a nuke test which will mean lot of stuff we have got for maintaining moratorium will be lost. India did conduct sub kilo test as using it for simulation

 

[bennedose]

I have a very noob question...

Can't nukes be tested guised as conventional weapons by scaling down proportionally all the components?

I mean, take a 400kg warhead, reduce the size of every component 10 times, and test it. The result can be extrapolated later to arrive at the performance of a full sized warhead.

Actually bombs are tested full size without the fissile material. In a nuclear bomb that contains Plutonium (Pu) the Pu core may be about the size of a tennis ball and weigh maybe 7 to 9 kg. That tennis ball has to be compressed to a ping-pong ball size using and explosion. When it gets compressed to ping pong ball size a nuclear chain reaction occurs causing a huge explosion.

If the explosion is efficient the yield may be about 20,000 tons of TNT - easily detectable
If the explosion is inefficient it may be just 2000 or 5000 tons of TNT (a fizzle) but also detectable

For simulation some other metal - like iron can be used instead of the Pu or Uranium core and then checked later to see if it has been accurately compressed to ping-pong ball size or smaller - which means that the rest of the bomb is working OK and will do the compression job as required.

But I don't think is possible to use a 900 gram mass of Pu instead of 9 kg. There is a lower limit below which a nuclear explosion will not occur. I believe the US has made bombs with as little as 2.5 kg of Pu. Less than that - you don't get an explosion and you will never know if the bomb will work when scaled up. Having said that another thing that can be done is to compress a small mass of some other material or a subcritical mass that will not explode. But as it gets compressed it will send out a shower of neutrons (subatomic particles) which as necessary for a nuclear explosion to occur. One can calculate and predict the efficiency of a real bomb by measuring how many neutrons are produced in a test explosion and extrapolating the results to a bomb that contains a much larger amount of Pu or Uranium.

Here is a simple explanation
Hydrodynamic Tests: Not to Scale - FAS Strategic Security Blog

Hydrodynamic Experiments

Every year, the United States conducts "hydrodynamic" experiments designed to mimic the first stages of a nuclear explosion. In tests, conventional high explosives are set off to study the effects of the explosion on specific materials. The term "hydrodynamic" is used because material is compressed and heated with such intensity that it begins to flow and mix like a fluid, and "hydrodynamic equations" are used to describe the behavior of fluids. In one type of hydrodynamic test, researchers build a full-scale primary—the first stage of a modern nuclear weapon—but the plutonium is replaced with a metal that has similar density and weight, but is not fissionable. The device is then fired, revealing information on the design's behavior from the high-explosive detonation to the beginning of the nuclear chain reaction.

You may find the following link useful but it's more technical
Nuclear Weapon Hydrodynamic Testing

 

[Broccoli]

The TN weapons are being build like the Russian and American weapons. We are not going to use depleted u-235 from the numbers. So our designs must be fairly close to w-88 warheads in terms of weight to yield ratio with HEU blankets. 475KT for a 350 to 400 kg TN weapon. This also means our missile development of ICBM's is complete with Agni VI. Agni VI all composite will be MIRV and will have a global reach. It's equal to the best in the world. We also have the option with HEU of using the initial HEU for only the trigger then replacing the depleted u-235 blankets with u-235 as time goes by. The nuclear arsenal will get stronger as years roll by. The possibility of a cap and reduce is gone.

India is not going to produce anything close to W88 and it's "prolate pit" without testing. Sophisticated thermonuclear weapons are order of magnitude harder to get right than conventional fission weapons, and something like W88 is even harder to do... to public knowledge only China and US have thermonuclear weapons with prolate pit's. Though PRC weapon (DF-31 RV) is probably closer to W87 since it's pit (Pu or HEU? not known) is rumored to be squeezed with insensitive high explosives (IHE).

You are ripping these estimations about Indian weapons out of your "rear area", if we look Indian tests there is no evidence what would suggests something like W88.

 

[sayareakd]

My wild guess is that we have about 360+ nukes of different type and roughly double the number to be made in short notice (one month or more).