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Tiwariji

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They should seriously consider disbanding the team behind this project. Nothing these people have touched have worked out in the last 20 years.

> This was the second failure of the system in the last two years. Of the three tests of the ITCM conducted since 2020, two have failed and one achieved ‘partial success’. During the first trial on October 12, 2020, the system deviated from the pre-coordinated flight path prompting the mission team to kill the missile mid-air to prevent damages to human habitation as the same engine had failed to function. The second trial on August 11 last year though was ‘partially’ successful as the engine performed as expected but the missile system could not travel the desired range reportedly due to some issues with the control mechanism.

Absurd how they took 2 years to carry out 2 tests and they failed every time. Shows how incompetent the team is if they cant even reverse engineer a decades old russian engine.
Rather then relying on reverse engineering . Its time to collaborate more with private player like paninian and fund them . It might bring success . Reading article seems like like they have good talent pool .


 

Blood+

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Its more than adequate. Paki tanks are ... lets just say I doubt how much of their tank fleet is operational. and the chinese armour is of dubious quality from some testing. people say export tanks vs chini tanks but the same thing had been said of russi maal too.
Well, their ZTZ-99A tanks are actually quite good (in many ways, even better than T-90S) as they come with upgraded armor packages, a better gun than its predecessor that can handle the more modern APFSDS rounds (depth of penetration reported to be around 320 mm of RHA equivalent at 68 degrees from the vertical plane at 2 km) and upgraded electronics suite. But their numbers are rather limited and are not part of the ORBAT of the formations designated for Indian theater.
 
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jai jaganath

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They should seriously consider disbanding the team behind this project. Nothing these people have touched have worked out in the last 20 years.

> This was the second failure of the system in the last two years. Of the three tests of the ITCM conducted since 2020, two have failed and one achieved ‘partial success’. During the first trial on October 12, 2020, the system deviated from the pre-coordinated flight path prompting the mission team to kill the missile mid-air to prevent damages to human habitation as the same engine had failed to function. The second trial on August 11 last year though was ‘partially’ successful as the engine performed as expected but the missile system could not travel the desired range reportedly due to some issues with the control mechanism.

Absurd how they took 2 years to carry out 2 tests and they failed every time. Shows how incompetent the team is if they cant even reverse engineer a decades old russian engine.
Oh so missile test failed
So there was no news regarding it in media
I think we should not nirbhay program due to stfe
Rather induct nirbhay in huge nos with Russian engine and parallel development of stfe should be done
Even engine for bhramos is imported I guess
 

mist_consecutive

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You have made some excellent points that I wanted to highlight, infact we are largely in agreement.

Any formidable airforce, be it the USAF or the PLAAF, has a light to medium weight single engine fighter jet in its fleet in massive numbers which forms the backbone of its fleet.
For the USAF, its the F-16 of which they operate 900+ examples, the PLAAF operates 500+ J-10.
The Tejas Mk1 and Mk1A are good multirole fighter aircraft which have proven their A2A and A2G capabilities during exercises like Gaganshakti, but I fail to understand why is the aircraft only being looked as a replacement for the Mig-21 fleet and not as a fleet backbone.
This is the perfect example of short sightedness and its funny that forum members support this short sightedness.
We need a medium fighter to be our backbone of airforce. But we need to understand why a light fighter (Tejas Mk1A) won't be ideal. We need to strike a balance between these factors -
  1. Operational cost
  2. Payload capacity
  3. Endurance (with the payload)
  4. Combat Range
  5. Power o/p (proportional to radar, EW, and other equipment power)
  6. Upgradability (small jets have less space & flexibility for upgrade)
LCA Mk2 fills the gaps of Mk1A, and being made in the same philosophy of low-cost, medium-weight multirole fighter like F-16, Gripen, and J-10, it is ideal for being the backbone of IAF, and IAF agrees with the same.

Also, the notion that LCA Mk1/1A is a replacement of Mig-21, has been dropped long ago. Tejas exceeds and outperforms Mig-21 in many aspects, and IAF realizes that. The proof is while Mig-21 was a point-defense air interceptor, being deployed at frontline combat airbases, Tejas is being deployed at 2nd-layer bases (Deesa AFB, Jodhpur AFB), and also a plethora of A2G smart munitions like Hammer is being integrated into Tejas.

You thinking the MMRCA acts as a buffer for development of Tejas variants and AMCA shpws how little you know of the MMRCA timelines, even if the MMRCA is signed tomorrow it won't be atleast till 2025-26 that the first aircraft is rolled out of the production line, also the production rate is not going to exceed more than 14 jets per year since IAF can only induct a limited number of jets into its fleet every year.
If IAF is really worried about its dwindling squadron strength, then it won't stop the Tejas Mk1/1A order at only 123 units.
I was talking in the past tense. If we had the MMRCA order completed even by 2017-18 we would have started receiving them and by 2025-26 we would have got ~40+ jets which would have slowly revived IAF.

Bold This argument completely escapes me. What about the timeline ? You think ordering MMRCA will be slow while making Tejas in-house will be somehow very quick while in real life it has been shown to be opposite ? Yeah let's say we order another 100 LCA Mk1A, it will start only after all existing Mk1A order will be completed (when is that ? 2030 ?). By that time why not start making Mk2 itself ?

The UPA deal for 126 Rafales was valued at $14 billion back in the day, and this is just for the barebones aircraft excluding any kind of technology transfer, maintenance packages, support packages, logistics packages, weapons systems, simulators, India Specific Enhancements, etc.
When you factor in all these variables, the cost ballons to excess of $25 billion and still you will be doing licensed assembly with little to no technology transfer (France will never give you the "know-how" and "know-why" for the Spectra EW suite, RBE2-AA radar, Meteor, no matter how much you pay them).
The entirety of the Indonesian AirForce is of 224 aircraft, IAF alone has more Su30 MKI in service, so I call BS on this comparison parameter.
Egypt gets funding from the other Arab states which explains their expensive acquisitions, India does not have that luxury.
With MMRCA, IAF has to commit 3-4 years worth of its CAPEX money to only MMRCA leaving 0 aside for Super Sukhoi upgrade, S-400 acquisition, MRSAM acquisition, Tejas Mk1A acquisition, C-295 acquisition, Refuellers, AEW&C, ISTAR, etc. amongst many of IAF ongoing military programs.
Can the IAF afford to do that, the answer is a big NO.
As I already stated in my previous reply, I am not bullish on Rafale. Any MMRCA would have done (sans Russian).
Also, the Indonesian defense budget is also like 1/8th of ours, so my argument stands. If a country can buy Rafale selling palm oil then so can we.
And what ? Egypt gets funding from Arab ? For doing what exactly, Pyramids ? Israel can afford 50 F-35s while having 1/3rd our defence budget, Australia can afford 50+ F-35s while having 1/2.5 times our defence budget, but yeah all these countries are funded, and not because they are serious about defense, which GoI/IAF is clearly not.

I would rather have an Indian baniya attitude rather than being broke.
What you actually mean is you would rather get defeated and humiliated rather than spend money where it is required.
 

mist_consecutive

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Man what are you talking about?

1) GoI hasn’t forced 500+ LCA on IAF
2) MMRCA demand has been upheld by IAF and GoI has allowed them to go for RFI after the GoI (MoD) granted AON for it
3) who is buying 100++ 4.5 gen fighters off the shelf in this day and age? Anyone that can buy in those numbers either buys their own or is an oil producer

I’d love to see the evidence that the GoI has forced LCA on IAF, the IAF in the last 5 years has HALVED their commitment to LCA MK.2

besides, other than 126 MMRCA what has IAF proposed since 2001 to replace the 10s of squadrons of MiG 21/23/27, Jags etc that have gone out of service and the M2K/MiG29s that are soon to follow post 2030?

either way, IAF’s big brain thinking has led to the scenario where they’ll be inducting the same amount of fighters in the next 10 years as the PLAAF inducts in 1.5 years

IAF and Indian generals can point fingers all they like but ultimately they are the ones that create force modernisation plans and allocate resources. Civilians only get involved at the last stage. They’ll give IAS guys cr@p all day long but these geniuses can’t even figure out how to procure the basics like clothing
GoI hasn't forced, but it is hunger tactics. Get LCA or get nothing tactics from GoI.

GoI has allowed going for RFI but putting stringent conditions like >50% indigenous content, or make-in-India is essentially killing the program, perhaps intentionally.
This has happened in the past as well, when IAF struggled to negotiate MMRCA post-2014 which demanded Dassault set up a supply line in India in collaboration with HAL, which Dassault straight away denied, and hence negotiations failed.

So IAF can move forward with MRCA as much as they want but if such unrealistic conditions are maintained it is akin to bureaucratic sabotage which is unsurprisingly very common in our Indian ecosystem.

So according to you the reason why GoI has started ignoring IAF because UN generals has stolen Modi buffalo from his backyard. Or GoI simply hate them for no reason.

Pious UN generals have crossed all limits and GoI forced to come into action. Things would be catastrophic in future if GoI hasn’t streamlined Generals.
Too much generalisation, but largely you are correct.
 

vishnugupt

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This is not generalisation bro. I like India politicians (old politicians) for not demonising institutions.
Chandigarh lobby is a real term and it exists, but where??
Had it been some other country there will be a inquiry and we would have find it right under UN generals nose.
In another words, our generals has de facto became Chandigarh Lobby. Their actions largely benefiting themselves and Dalals rather than country.
 

Knowitall

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OT but it's amusing that as IA is finally embracing IBG, the US Army is moving back to divisions as they have concluded BTCs are not optimal against "Peer threats".
Because IBG's lack the strength and equipment to make deep punches into the enemy territories.

The recent Russian-ukraine war has made it extremely clear that IBG's simply lack enough equipment firepower and manpower to sustain deep piercing attacks while also sustaining the rate of losses incurred.

There was a good video and I'll post it here once I find it which extensively talked about how Soviet division's were extra beefy to sustain significant losses and still maintain combined arms and maneuver operations deep into the enemy territory something the Soviets had mastered by then.

The Russians military reforms over the last few years saw the downsizing of these units to match the European model of lean forces due to budget and industrial constraints.

The result was an absolute cluster fuck in wartime as the Russian BTG's simply did not have enough equipment or manpower to sustain losses and and hold the frontline at the same time.

The lack of a proper war and doctrine school is evident in IA as rather than reasearching and creating doctrines for our operations we are busy jumping into the latest trend that simply do not match our environment.

The next Indian conflict will be an extremely high intensity conflict with India most likely fighting on two fronts with a well trained and equipped enemy working in tandem with significant manufacturing and manpower capabilities to back up the frontline.

Worse IBG's in their current form with the T series of tanks and BMP IFV's will be extremely prone to high losses throughout the conflict.

This combined with the lack of absolute air superiority in any conflict will result in an attrition style conflict eventually with no proper outcome.
 

AUSTERLITZ

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Because IBG's lack the strength and equipment to make deep punches into the enemy territories.

The recent Russian-ukraine war has made it extremely clear that IBG's simply lack enough equipment firepower and manpower to sustain deep piercing attacks while also sustaining the rate of losses incurred.

There was a good video and I'll post it here once I find it which extensively talked about how Soviet division's were extra beefy to sustain significant losses and still maintain combined arms and maneuver operations deep into the enemy territory something the Soviets had mastered by then.

The Russians military reforms over the last few years saw the downsizing of these units to match the European model of lean forces due to budget and industrial constraints.

The result was an absolute cluster fuck in wartime as the Russian BTG's simply did not have enough equipment or manpower to sustain losses and and hold the frontline at the same time.

The lack of a proper war and doctrine school is evident in IA as rather than reasearching and creating doctrines for our operations we are busy jumping into the latest trend that simply do not match our environment.

The next Indian conflict will be an extremely high intensity conflict with India most likely fighting on two fronts with a well trained and equipped enemy working in tandem with significant manufacturing and manpower capabilities to back up the frontline.

Worse IBG's in their current form with the T series of tanks and BMP IFV's will be extremely prone to high losses throughout the conflict.

This combined with the lack of absolute air superiority in any conflict will result in an attrition style conflict eventually with no proper outcome.
Not true.What the americans are doing are reinstating divisions over their existing brigade combat teams with additional logistics,maintainence,command and control and fire assets.The BCT is 2500-3000 men.The russian BTG is less than 1000 men.The IBG is 6000-10000 men.They are basically smaller mobile divisions.The indian IBG is not similar to the btg or bct,its conception is similar to american general mcgregor's 'breaking the phlanx' concept of 'battlegroups'.
 

abingdonboy

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They should seriously consider disbanding the team behind this project. Nothing these people have touched have worked out in the last 20 years.

> This was the second failure of the system in the last two years. Of the three tests of the ITCM conducted since 2020, two have failed and one achieved ‘partial success’. During the first trial on October 12, 2020, the system deviated from the pre-coordinated flight path prompting the mission team to kill the missile mid-air to prevent damages to human habitation as the same engine had failed to function. The second trial on August 11 last year though was ‘partially’ successful as the engine performed as expected but the missile system could not travel the desired range reportedly due to some issues with the control mechanism.

Absurd how they took 2 years to carry out 2 tests and they failed every time. Shows how incompetent the team is if they cant even reverse engineer a decades old russian engine.
This is the mentality of losers.

imagine thinking you can be 100% successful all the time

the lack of risk appetite is one of the key reasons why india lags in R&D
 

abingdonboy

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GoI hasn't forced, but it is hunger tactics. Get LCA or get nothing tactics from GoI.

GoI has allowed going for RFI but putting stringent conditions like >50% indigenous content, or make-in-India is essentially killing the program, perhaps intentionally.
This has happened in the past as well, when IAF struggled to negotiate MMRCA post-2014 which demanded Dassault set up a supply line in India in collaboration with HAL, which Dassault straight away denied, and hence negotiations failed.

So IAF can move forward with MRCA as much as they want but if such unrealistic conditions are maintained it is akin to bureaucratic sabotage which is unsurprisingly very common in our Indian ecosystem.



Too much generalisation, but largely you are correct.
MRFA deserves to be killed, it will never succeed even with full GoI backing

and you still haven’t addressed the point that IAF’s LCA MK.2 commitments have halved in the same period.

IAF is the one playing games and putting a gun to their heads saying give me what I want or….
 

abingdonboy

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This is not generalisation bro. I like India politicians (old politicians) for not demonising institutions.
Chandigarh lobby is a real term and it exists, but where??
Had it been some other country there will be a inquiry and we would have find it right under UN generals nose.
In another words, our generals has de facto became Chandigarh Lobby. Their actions largely benefiting themselves and Dalals rather than country.
These are the kind of clowns that make it to the top, after a certain point it’s just careerism and about protecting their own interests.

Why is it surprising that this would translate into policy especially given how dirty the world of arms procurement is. How many of these generals have kids studying in top American/Western universities where tuition is >$50,000/annum?

this is the elephant in the room that no one seems to want to talk about every time these RFIs get floated
 

abingdonboy

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Not true.What the americans are doing are reinstating divisions over their existing brigade combat teams with additional logistics,maintainence,command and control and fire assets.The BCT is 2500-3000 men.The russian BTG is less than 1000 men.The IBG is 6000-10000 men.They are basically smaller mobile divisions.The indian IBG is not similar to the btg or bct,its conception is similar to american general mcgregor's 'breaking the phlanx' concept of 'battlegroups'.
America’s primary weapon since WW2 has always been aerial supremacy. This enables ground campaigns to be successful.

IAF offers no such window
 

mist_consecutive

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MRFA deserves to be killed, it will never succeed even with full GoI backing

and you still haven’t addressed the point that IAF’s LCA MK.2 commitments have halved in the same period.

IAF is the one playing games and putting a gun to their heads saying give me what I want or….
Well as I mentioned in my earlier posts if MRFA gets killed (it is being strangulated by GoI) then we will be taking a gamble that we won't be in a war for the next 8-10 years till LCA (both Mk1A and Mk2) get rolled out in sufficient numbers. And anyone following geopolitics can clearly point it out as a very risky gamble.

and you still haven’t addressed the point that IAF’s LCA MK.2 commitments have halved in the same period.
?? I think IAF Chief already clarified that this is not the case. Anyway, I cannot find the source you are talking about, can you point me in its direction ?

Even if he did say that, I don't think we will be buying any foreign jet after MRCA (if it even happens), so rest easy. The lifespan of ACM is around 2-3 years so he will be long gone when LCA Mk2 comes into production.
 

abingdonboy

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Well as I mentioned in my earlier posts if MRFA gets killed (it is being strangulated by GoI) then we will be taking a gamble that we won't be in a war for the next 8-10 years till LCA (both Mk1A and Mk2) get rolled out in sufficient numbers. And anyone following geopolitics can clearly point it out as a very risky gamble.



?? I think IAF Chief already clarified that this is not the case. Anyway, I cannot find the source you are talking about, can you point me in its direction ?

Even if he did say that, I don't think we will be buying any foreign jet after MRCA (if it even happens), so rest easy. The lifespan of ACM is around 2-3 years so he will be long gone when LCA Mk2 comes into production.
Again the fallacy that MRFA is a quick solution, it cannot possibly deliver until almost the 2040s now


And IAF’s halving of LCA MK.2 numbers:


How anyone can justify this is beyond me. The end result is the IAF will barely be 10-20% larger than the PAF come 2030 and on a tactical scenario actually inferior to the PAF in strength as IAF’s numbers have to be split on 2+ fronts.
 

Whitecollar

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Again the fallacy that MRFA is a quick solution, it cannot possibly deliver until almost the 2040s now


And IAF’s halving of LCA MK.2 numbers:


How anyone can justify this is beyond me. The end result is the IAF will barely be 10-20% larger than the PAF come 2030 and on a tactical scenario actually inferior to the PAF in strength as IAF’s numbers have to be split on 2+ fronts.
I guess this was the reason GoI was mulling over procurement and setup of S400 on Indian soil since so many years. Now that they've setup a relatively good AD setup, they can watch IAF do all sorts of nautanki, get exhausted and finally agree to procuring MK2 & MK1As. As a lollipop, another 36 Rafales in F4 config will be ordered and there will be a win win situation. But rather interestingly, it is not IAF but both IA & IAF behaving the same way most of the times. Are they really banking on delay tactics till 2024 and assuming that BJP will step off leading to their old ways of "phoren maal lao jaldi jaldi" again??
 

Knowitall

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Not true.What the americans are doing are reinstating divisions over their existing brigade combat teams with additional logistics,maintainence,command and control and fire assets.The BCT is 2500-3000 men.The russian BTG is less than 1000 men.The IBG is 6000-10000 men.They are basically smaller mobile divisions.The indian IBG is not similar to the btg or bct,its conception is similar to american general mcgregor's 'breaking the phlanx' concept of 'battlegroups'.
American doctrine is extensively based on complete air dominance and superiority with overwhelming CAS for group support while the Russian doctrine focus heavily on armoured breakthroughs backed by superior artillery and missile strikes.

India lacks in both departments by a significant margin and does not posses any major tech advantage either with BMP's being the mainstream units for mechanised forces which are just pure shit.

T-90 is the only modern tank in the arsenal but without proper upgrades over the years it too will face serious challenges in front of ATGM's units and fortified positions.
 

abingdonboy

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American doctrine is extensively based on complete air dominant and superiority with overwhelming CAS while the Russian doctrine focus heavily on armoured breakthroughs backed by superior artillery and missile strikes.

India lacks in both departments by a significant margin and does not posses any major tech advantage either with BMP's being the mainstream units for mechanised forces which are just pure shit.

T-90 is the only modern tank in the arsenal but without proper upgrades over the years it too will face serious challenges in front of ATGM's units and fortified positions.
The T90 was junk when it was bought and that remains the same. It didn’t even have decent TI sights or credible night fighting capabilities forget about AC and any other creature comforts for the crews.

the Russian medium class MBT concept has long since been a liability especially with the auto loaders which make them highly prone to cooking off from even light damage.

that IA bought these by the 1000s as Arjun was demeaned says it all.

I doubt even the IA themselves thinks they have decent local superiority hence why india acts so meekly with its neighbours and why since 2001 large scale armoured thrusts have basically not even been considered in retaliation to the numerous provocations.
 

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