This option makes sense only if there are some minor concessions that the govt can brush under the carpet like the current buffer zone nonsense where they can deny stuff saying we were never there anyways. In such case things would stay pretty much the same as of now.
For modi to open his batua there would have to been a decent loss that we would have to face. In that case even 200 rafales would not be worth it as our policy makers would shut down the door of challenging china for the next 200 years or so which is not worth it.
The only reason GoI is acting parsimonious is that they think IAF is crying wolf. They think the requirements for MRCA are extravagant spending at best. When a reality check happens, such misunderstandings will shatter.
(I cannot really blame illiterate IAS babus for thinking such, even fanboys on this forum advocate for 500+ LCA completely missing the point of manufacturing capabilities and deadlines).
And for policymakers shutting the door, nope, that is never going to happen. It will only solidify our resolve to kick down China.
Acquisition of Gripen or F-16 would have killed the Tejas Mk2 program for good, might aswell curtailed the Tejas Mk1 at 40 units with no Tejas Mk1A being ordered.
Also, do you think the Gripen E and the F-16 Block 70/72 is going to come cheap, the Gripen-E costs $85 million unit cost, the F-16 Block 70/72 has a similar unit cost and given the past experience with ToT, it would merely be licensed production which would be what India would be doing.
Mirage 2000 was a better option, but UAE wasn't willing to sell any and we already have seen how expensive it is to upgrade the Mirage to IAF standards.
So, the Govt had no option other than to put all its faith and money into the Tejas Mk1 and Mk2.
I do not agree LCA program would have been killed. In fact, MMRCA would have given us a comfortable buffer time to develop Tejas and AMCA. Now delays in the Tejas program might mean a massive defeat and loss of territory for us.
Also, this argument about cost and how India cannot afford Rafale is
bullshit. Indonesia and Egypt are not particularly shining stars of the economy, and they can afford it comfortably. This is just Indian baniya attitude of "Why buy 40 Lakh Skoda, when Maruti Suzuki comes at 8 Lakh" attitude.