there’s nothing stopping IAF to raise more squadrons. All it has to do is ask MoD to raise more squadrons so they can buy more LCAs which I think GoI will agree to because it means supporting the Indian defense industry
Let's take this in context of IN and see the existing example-
"There is nothing stopping IN to build more carriers, DDG, FFG. All it has to do is ask MoD to raise the sanctioned fleet numbers so they can build more hulls. GoI will agree because it means supporting Indian defence industry"
There are other factors such as budget limitations and sustainable production.
And GoI/CCS hasn't sanctioned any more hulls to IN right now. The reason for my pessimistic post.
It could change going in the late 30s as the budget increases to a healthy amount. But late 30s is >>decade away. No point in discussing something that "might" happen in 15 years. 1st batch of MK2 will have 7-8 sq and that's what we know. And IAF is more likely to increase the number of AMCA sq. 15+ sq of MK2 is just a dream for now.
China is literally adding atleast 100 new airframes of fighters,transport,helo etc every year...i honestly dont know how IAF ,GOI or MOD thinks 42 will be enough...i get that it takes guts to do what they do but there is no substitute for numbers unless we wanna end up like ukraine
Money, industrial base, requirement, sustainability etcetera are some of the factors that you have to take into account.
Money- IAF' budget is limited, it can't simply give an order just to increase production rate. The LCA assembly line will be running at 16/annum for MK1A but has a capacity of >20/annum. It's not just the cost of labour (hours) that will increase but IAF has to pay for those additional airframes too, and the increase is in 1000s of cr, ~350/each is just for the basic MK1A airframe and related subsystems, it doesn't even include the AESAR and other sensor upgrades over MK1, and the increase isn't just in the procurement cost but maintenance too. The cost of maintenance will increase with the increase in number of airframes, + the cost to arm them with additional missiles + taxes. It's a chain reaction, the increase in production will trigger a heavy increase in expenditure which IAF can't afford right now.
Industrial capability, requirements and sustainability - *currently* we can only produce MK1A class of fighter jets and related subsystems, what's the requirement of such new frames? Is it in several hundreds? No, it is in just ~80 ballpark (including trainers) which IAF has ordered, and increase in number of MK1A squadrons is inversely proportional to the number of MK2/AMCA squadrons because all those have to come out of the same 42sq figure. First and last airframes of MK1A have to be delivered in 2024 and 2029 respectively for which the production has to start several months ago, IAF & HAL have agreed upon the 16/annum figure because it is sustainable for this time period. Doubling the production rate (which will cost 10s of 1000s of cr in a small time period) and your last MK1A airframe would be put on the jig by 2026 (First in 23). What will the line do after it has started the assembly of last MK1A? It will run dry. And production of MK2 will be open for the pvt sector to bid for, meaning a successive order for the >32/annum line isn't even "imminent". If HAL losses to a pvt sector, the production line will run dry for *several* years. And all that investment will be unproductive for those years (not just the machineries but the trained workforce). => unsustainable.
Large scale production "right now" is financially unfeasible and unsustainable for the aforementioned reasons. There is nothing that will give you result next year, it will take some years till we have an airframe that can be produced in >>100 strength (140-160 MK2) and the budget to finance the production.
Our current infrastructure can support a production rate of more than 90 airframes (of fighters, helis, transport etcetera)-
>12/annum (Nashik) running dry
>20/annum (Banglore) will cost a fortune to produce at this level with current budget.
30/annum for helis (current) + 30/annum recently inaugurated. Total 60/annum in the two lines, this is sustainable.
+ pvt sector would be producing transport aircrafts like C-295 in coming years..
A full fledged production line for CATS Warrior is also to be set up in the later half of this decade.
And PRC doesn't have the capability to deploy fighters in 500 strength (which is huge in itself) in the himalayan theatre either.
Initial batches of MKIs will start to retire towards the end of this decade. All 272 will not be upgraded to SuperSu standards.
Initial batches of MKI won't be retiring this decade, not even close. Those MKI will be stretched to late 30s, 8000hrs life isn't just to dump when you don't even have a replacement ready. MK2 isn't a replacement for MKI class fighters, so idk what's the point of mentioning that?
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