I disagree with you IAF not ordering more than 6-7 squadrons. I think we will see at least 14-15 squadrons of Tejas Mk2 for no other reason than to maintain air combat patrol on 24/7 standby. Tejas is the cheapest way of maintaining onboard air patrol along the borders of Indo-Pakistan and Indo-Chino. This way, it preserves the airframe life of Su-30s, Rafales, and the AMCAs without burning a lot of money in operational expenses and maintain combat readiness.
There will only be 7-8 sq of MK2 unless IAF gets a sanctioned fighter sq strength of more than 42 sq or cancels MRFA (unlikely to happen) or MK2 replacing squadrons of MK1 or MKI (also unlikely to happen)
Sq strength of MK2 was to be 6-7sq but there's a gap of 1 sq because of alleged cancellation of 21 MiG-29 deal. The gap "could" be filled with MK2 in future. (Total sq were to be 10 but later reduced to 7 because of 2 Rafale sq and 1 MiG-29 sq).
A fleet of max 42 fighter sq (unless GoI/CCS sanctions more sq)
13 MKI (272 airframe)
6 LCA MK1/A (123 airframe)
2 Rafale (36 airframe)
6 MRFA (114 airframe)
2+5 AMCA (120-125 airframe)
1 MiG-29 (21 airframe, deal cancelled)
=> 35 sq
Space is left for 7 MK2 sq (or 8 if MK2 is to take place of the 21 MiG-29). The 10 sq of MK2 was to have around 201 fighters according to ACM RKSB, if we assume a similar ratio, it comes at around 140-160 airframes (7-8 sq)
Sanctioning of additional sq is a possibility but as per the current scenario it is limited to just 7-8 sq.
272+123+36+114+125+160 ≈ 830 airframes in total (including the trainers)