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Chinmoy

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Here is my thinking on very casual level....we are no first use country which means we should be ready to retaliate as fast as we can at first signs of launch by enemy or first hit, this means we can't have policies or systems based on keeping warhead separate from missile (only reason for this would be we have less reliability in our missiles for some reason)....also it introduces errors into system? With solid fueled missiles, warheads are generally mated based on other countries nuclear arsenal but its possible electrically switches are not live?

It just does not add up using common sense for me for being a no first use country...but who knows the exact details
Recently because of the Indo-China conflict, we have seen the A5 TEL whose picture has been deliberately released. Now if (!) that missile has been mated with a Nuke warhead, you can't expect it to remain like that for ever.
NFU doesn't mean we would keep our land based nukes mated with missiles 24/7. Its not like that even a rogue state like Pakistan would fire a nuke upon you without any reason unless LeT or HM gets control over them. So when a war scenario occurs, depending upon the threat perception, you start mating the nukes. For this very reason war games do happen from time to time.
Crossing nuke threshold for any nation is not just a decision taken at a whim. Else NoKo would have nuked America a hundred times by now.
 

Chinmoy

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bro the laser takes exactly 38 sec ( from 0:23-1:01 ), isn't it too slow/weak that too its stationary.
if it moves it will very difficult. however along with other sensors and soft kill may lead to hard kill

however i believe it will lead to mission kill
now question arises how would it act if there r multiple drones??
That's a 5kW system and it would take that much of time. More powerful 10 to 100kW system are in making.
 

Chinmoy

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Yeh kya banaya hai yaar..Itne time main to drone do baar bomb daalke chala jayega..
They don't work alone. They do work in conjuncture of jammers. Unless and until you are using a military level drone, which are GPS guided, these cheap drones require constant control from ground based system. Jammers actively jam those signal from control stations and the laser do the rest.
 

omaebakabaka

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Recently because of the Indo-China conflict, we have seen the A5 TEL whose picture has been deliberately released. Now if (!) that missile has been mated with a Nuke warhead, you can't expect it to remain like that for ever.
NFU doesn't mean we would keep our land based nukes mated with missiles 24/7. Its not like that even a rogue state like Pakistan would fire a nuke upon you without any reason unless LeT or HM gets control over them. So when a war scenario occurs, depending upon the threat perception, you start mating the nukes. For this very reason war games do happen from time to time.
Crossing nuke threshold for any nation is not just a decision taken at a whim. Else NoKo would have nuked America a hundred times by now.
Lot of pics are revealed in a controlled manner, more so when it comes to military related things much less strategic stuff....what you say is certainly possible but keeping warheads isolated makes everything from theft to human errors more likely vs mating it but not necessarily activating it.....it is very unlikely that warhead is stored seperate in a silo deployed missile for instance or even mobile...just imagine the logistics and staff and equipment necessary to mate it....activated status probably not but mated most likely in my opinion
 

FalconSlayers

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1625498265838.jpeg


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no smoking

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Lot of pics are revealed in a controlled manner, more so when it comes to military related things much less strategic stuff....what you say is certainly possible but keeping warheads isolated makes everything from theft to human errors more likely vs mating it but not necessarily activating it.....it is very unlikely that warhead is stored seperate in a silo deployed missile for instance or even mobile...just imagine the logistics and staff and equipment necessary to mate it....activated status probably not but mated most likely in my opinion
Mating the warhead to the missile and keeping it in war ready mood is much more expensive and complicated operation than separating them. That means after certain period of time, you have to take down the warhead and do thorough maintenance of the warhead, then again putting it back. Since the warhead has been kept in service status, some of components need to be replaced as the service environment is much hash than the storage room specifically designed for these warheads. By repeatedly dissemble and assemble these warheads, you actually shorten the life of them or reduce the reliability.
 

omaebakabaka

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Mating the warhead to the missile and keeping it in war ready mood is much more expensive and complicated operation than separating them. That means after certain period of time, you have to take down the warhead and do thorough maintenance of the warhead, then again putting it back. Since the warhead has been kept in service status, some of components need to be replaced as the service environment is much hash than the storage room specifically designed for these warheads. By repeatedly dissemble and assemble these warheads, you actually shorten the life of them or reduce the reliability.
This idea of keeping warheads separate in silo based missiles is just not practical and counter productive in many ways, I don't think this has any truth unless you can point to some official docs in solid fueled missile era....activation is a different thing and most likely most are probably not in ready to fire state. Most silos are not manned by many people and neither do they have warhead storage places nor has that kinda training or equipment to do that in short notice. This is just speculation on my side...
 

no smoking

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This idea of keeping warheads separate in silo based missiles is just not practical and counter productive in many ways, I don't think this has any truth unless you can point to some official docs in solid fueled missile era....
Well, if you expect Chinese government coming out to say that they separately store their warheads, don't hold your breath. This is the conclusion based on over 40 years observation, which is agreed at least by Pentagon report:

The Pentagon’s 2020 China Report – Federation Of American Scientists (fas.org)

Regarding Chinese silo based missiles, well, you can get the same conclusion from logic: So far, Chinese has around 20 silos of which the locations are public information. There is no doubt they are on the top of US strike list. Considering US submarine launch their missiles from west Pacific, say somewhere east to Japan, it takes less than 4 minutes to reach these DF-5s, far less than the Chinese nuclear force system reacting time.

So, these DF-5s are doomed no matter what Chinese does. Now, you can make your calculation: If you keep the warheads mated, every two US missiles can destroy one DF-5 with one warhead (or even 3 warheads). It will cost only 40 US missiles to wipe roughly 10% Chinese nuclear force which can reach US homeland, good exchange rate to US. But if Chinese stores the warheads nearby, but more 3 km away, that means US will need to double her strike missiles to get the same result.

So, Chinese choice is obvious.

activation is a different thing and most likely most are probably not in ready to fire state.
As long as you are not keeping them in well protected storage room, they are getting running out of their life much faster.

Most silos are not manned by many people and neither do they have warhead storage places nor has that kinda training or equipment to do that in short notice. This is just speculation on my side...
Take China as an example, one DF-5 missile bridge has 1000-1200 man, managing around 8 missiles. Considering 10 people for one shift in the silo, 3 shifts for one silo, so totally 240 peoples for controlling missile launch. What is the job for other 760 people? Being guard?
 

omaebakabaka

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Well, if you expect Chinese government coming out to say that they separately store their warheads, don't hold your breath. This is the conclusion based on over 40 years observation, which is agreed at least by Pentagon report:

The Pentagon’s 2020 China Report – Federation Of American Scientists (fas.org)

Regarding Chinese silo based missiles, well, you can get the same conclusion from logic: So far, Chinese has around 20 silos of which the locations are public information. There is no doubt they are on the top of US strike list. Considering US submarine launch their missiles from west Pacific, say somewhere east to Japan, it takes less than 4 minutes to reach these DF-5s, far less than the Chinese nuclear force system reacting time.

So, these DF-5s are doomed no matter what Chinese does. Now, you can make your calculation: If you keep the warheads mated, every two US missiles can destroy one DF-5 with one warhead (or even 3 warheads). It will cost only 40 US missiles to wipe roughly 10% Chinese nuclear force which can reach US homeland, good exchange rate to US. But if Chinese stores the warheads nearby, but more 3 km away, that means US will need to double her strike missiles to get the same result.

So, Chinese choice is obvious.



As long as you are not keeping them in well protected storage room, they are getting running out of their life much faster.



Take China as an example, one DF-5 missile bridge has 1000-1200 man, managing around 8 missiles. Considering 10 people for one shift in the silo, 3 shifts for one silo, so totally 240 peoples for controlling missile launch. What is the job for other 760 people? Being guard?
No sane person plans a nuclear scenario like you are saying, the whole point is to be ready against your 1st and 2nd likely opponents. What do you achieve by keeping warheads without delivery vehicles? 3 km radius would be destroyed and highly contaminated. I am not sure what you are even trying to say here....Chinese are idiots but not to that level
 

Chinmoy

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Lot of pics are revealed in a controlled manner, more so when it comes to military related things much less strategic stuff....what you say is certainly possible but keeping warheads isolated makes everything from theft to human errors more likely vs mating it but not necessarily activating it.....it is very unlikely that warhead is stored seperate in a silo deployed missile for instance or even mobile...just imagine the logistics and staff and equipment necessary to mate it....activated status probably not but mated most likely in my opinion
If you have followed the nuclear program or IGMDP, you might have noticed that the missiles are displayed only on shows. Leave alone missiles, even the TELs are shown only on public show. Never ever have any pic or video emerged showing these things inadvertently. Unlike US or western nations, we don't believe in capturing mugshots with nukes.

Coming to next point on security regarding theft. I have already stirred up a storm here once saying that I've seen the silos myself, so I am not going to say anything like that again. But when it come to enter a nuke storage facility in India, even the authorized personnel has to follow strict protocol. So it is easier to steal a mated nuke missile then a standalone warhead in storage facility.

Now coming to technical part. Self life of a solid fueled missile is around 20-25 years in a enclosed Silo or in a cannister. But you have to replace the nuke warhead after every 10-15 years. So opening a hermetically sealed cannister after a duration would bring down the self life of missile itself along with high possibility of accident.
On other hand, the electronics on a missile which comprises of battery and firing circuit has even shorter life span. Once you put a missile in cannister, you have to arm it prior for firing. This in itself presents a greater danger of unwanted accident in case you have to dismantle the missile later on. Coming to nuke warhead, there is a phenomenon called ENDS (Enhanced Nuclear Detonation Safety). In it, you have to physically arm a nuke warhead. It is in practice with NATO forces. I can't say for sure what we call it, but we have a similar procedure.
 

omaebakabaka

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If you have followed the nuclear program or IGMDP, you might have noticed that the missiles are displayed only on shows. Leave alone missiles, even the TELs are shown only on public show. Never ever have any pic or video emerged showing these things inadvertently. Unlike US or western nations, we don't believe in capturing mugshots with nukes.

Coming to next point on security regarding theft. I have already stirred up a storm here once saying that I've seen the silos myself, so I am not going to say anything like that again. But when it come to enter a nuke storage facility in India, even the authorized personnel has to follow strict protocol. So it is easier to steal a mated nuke missile then a standalone warhead in storage facility.

Now coming to technical part. Self life of a solid fueled missile is around 20-25 years in a enclosed Silo or in a cannister. But you have to replace the nuke warhead after every 10-15 years. So opening a hermetically sealed cannister after a duration would bring down the self life of missile itself along with high possibility of accident.
On other hand, the electronics on a missile which comprises of battery and firing circuit has even shorter life span. Once you put a missile in cannister, you have to arm it prior for firing. This in itself presents a greater danger of unwanted accident in case you have to dismantle the missile later on. Coming to nuke warhead, there is a phenomenon called ENDS (Enhanced Nuclear Detonation Safety). In it, you have to physically arm a nuke warhead. It is in practice with NATO forces. I can't say for sure what we call it, but we have a similar procedure.
It was just my speculation based on the silos I have seen, how can someone steal a missile in silo? This is not like robbing a bank or cash truck and later on hide it....you need special equipment to install or deinstall a silo missile. There is simply not that kind of space in silos and those who man it are extremely trained in procedure to follow launch procedures than repair or install of anything....for this only special military or manufacturing teams do the job. There could be large warehouses where they stock missiles like in underground bases where warheads may be stored but these are bigger installations where a whole military unit may guard it. Installing warhead is a specialized task and not for few people that are stationed at the silo.....are you speculating or you have first hand info?
 

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