Countering cold start: Military to adopt new war concept

[Neil]

there is nothing such as madrassa.

if i reply in your way i might get infractions.even though i have a very good reply for your post in my mind.

oh my bad...its madarsa ...

bwahahahahahahaha.... I 'm scared to death....!!

 

[SilentKiller]

Pak army is not anymore suppose to fight with india..

the first layer of defence will be made around the indian border by the common pakistanis.

PA would be more of an overkill against IA

 

[SilentKiller]

Public debt.
So india has 299 billion in debt but its economy is much larger than pakistan.
At least here i guess pakistan will surely catch up with india very soon!!
:thumb: pakistan

28 India 299,200,000,000 31 December 2012 237 21

32 Pakistan 162,000,000,000 21 May 2013 est. 893 67.5

 

[farhan_9909]

Those are just speculations.

Anything to do with our nukes are mere speculations. The same is for your industry.



Not all of the plutonium produced is used in bomb making.

They are not.because i am quoting your nuclear scientist claim now.the western sources might speculate..and i agree about that part..but your nuclear scientist which infact was involved in your nuclear program said they were dud.so i believe in your nuclear scientist more than anyone else

So he clearly said the test failed.



Pokhran-II thermonuclear test, a failure | The Hindu

Speculation and and more speculation. For all you know all your reactors are producing less than 20Kg each. All your reactors are small. Even our reactor Dhruva is said to be a 100MWt reactor and produces less uranium than you have claimed above. Your reactors are of 50MWt range.

less than 20kg each is a joke.reactor designed in the 90's and a reactor made operational in 2012.as i said earlier the capacity of Atleast the 4th khushab series reactor is no less than 50-60kg per year.any i will post about this later..i had searched alot about a older western source which claimed that the 4th reactor could be the reason of pakistan aim of developing thermonuclear weapons.i dont remember the article title but it was posted in pakdef and if you know the older site is dead now.

Even I can speculate and claim we have multiple PHWRs creating more plutonium than you can imagine.



More or less. But all for 20kT class weapons.

we had the capability upto 40kt in 98..we now spend upto 2.5billions usd on our nuclear program each year.we have the surplus plutonium,we have the site and the know how.for cities like mumbai and delhi...Pak must have warhead in excess of 200kt.smaller warheads of 50kt size could be for the rest of the country.in 2020 pakistan nuclear arsenal if it add 26 warheads per year and add to this new reactor.if an average for this decade pak manufacture 35 warheads per year..by 2020 we will have upto 400-500 warheads from tactical nukes to massive megaton warheads

50MWt with the latest said to be another 50MWt reactor. All the Khushab reactors.

A 50MWt reactor should deliver around 10Kg of weaponized Plutonium.

Comparatively DHRUVA is a 100MWt reactor and produces around 20Kg of plutonium, 26 according to official sources.

All your reactors are based on the Khushab-1.

Khushab-1 | Facilities | NTI


This should give you an idea.

Also,
Khushab-3 | Facilities | NTI

for this i will post an extract of ahmad...in my next post

You are making a lot of mistakes. I already told you, a 20kT weapons will make only a 350m crater, that's smaller than my entire apartment complex. Sure, there are around 350 families in my complex so the death count would be rather high for the small area of damage, but it won't take out the whole city.



Yes, we have a large population, even in the cities. However you are underestimating BMD, CMD and also the resilience of our buildings to a nuclear attack of such tiny magnitude. There were people in Nagasaki who were close to ground zero and survived because they were held in concrete prison cells. The people who died were living in wood and paper houses which caught fire after.

what about the radiation?indian cities are very dense populated.i am not underestimating indian BMD..i dont even consider them as something worth worrying.beside this as said earlier less than 50kt wont be used against indian cities

You can't nuke 50 cities of India. You don't have such capability. And we don't need to nuke even one city of Pakistan, we only need to take out power plants and water systems using conventional weapons and watch Pakistanis kill each other instead.

50 cities were my estimation..i am sure they will nuke upto 150-180 cities of india.
please take out them.than we will what can pak take out in return

You need much more than 15-18Kg.[/B]

how much?30kg per warhead?for a country tha has the capability of producing upto 176kg of weapon grade plutonium per year and might increase to upto 300kg per year before the end of this decade

Nuclear winter will work only if you nuke a lot of places with a lot of bombs. That means around 20000 or 30000 nukes. Have you even gone through the number of nuclear tests conducted throughout the world? Read about it and you will understand that even a combined Indian+Pakistani arsenal won't take out India.

Pakistan alone will produce twice the present indian warhead stockpile within this decade alone

Anyway, we produce a lot of tritium for thermonuclear bombs.
India can be largest supplier of tritium: Kakodkar - Indian Express

i am sure you know as well.we have tritium production facility since 80's and each khushab series reactor have there own

You see, we need a small fission bomb to trigger a larger fusion bomb. While you are busy producing and using up all your plutonium for fission bombs, we may have already moved towards bigger things.

western sources claim that the reason behind 4th khushav series reactor is the pakistan aim for thermonuclear weapons

And this, to help you understand what the previous link means.
Tritium from Power Plants gives India an H-bomb capability

For all you know we have enough tritium to make both US and Russia jealous.

Ah we are producing tritium from the past 3 decades.imagine how much we will have.
i had heard that a slight amount of tritium can increase the yield by almost 300%

Also note that the 50MWt for Khushab is just for thermal power, while most of the Indian reactors list their electrical output. In other words, your reactors are tinier than you think. Meaning the Russians are currently building 2 1000MWe reactors in Tamil Nadu right now while your Khushab reactors 1 through 3 are around 15MWe reactors. See the difference.

khushab series reactor ranges between 50-70mw.though the 4th one seem to be off 150mw..but it doesnt matter.look for my next post

For reference let me give you an example of another reactor in comparison. We made a test FBTR reactor which feeds on plutonium. It was a 40MWt reactor with an electrical output of 13MWe. It needed 50Kg of weaponized plutonium and was made in 1985. We are currently building a second PFBR of 500MWe capacity. So you can only imagine how much weaponized plutonium it will need. Btw, the bye-product of this reactor is more plutonium.

India built 50 reactos or 1000 it doesnt matter to us.india has 1 trillions warhead it doesnt matter to us.

our goal is to have 500 warheads uptil 2020-25.

Reactor under construction in Pakistan

Chashma II
Chashma III
Pakistan nuclear fuel complex is a mix reactor which will produce yellow cake uranium as well as generation of 1000mw of electricity

Deal signed with china
Kanup II 1000mw

Deal to be signed within few months with china
A new series reactor..the first one of 1100mw.for more detail read the article recently posted by me in pakistan section

 

[farhan_9909]

first we will make you bankrupt, then cut your country in style. We are doing as plan.

how will you bankrupt us?our defence budget is 2.4% of our GDP compared to india 2.2%

so we are not over spending..the nuclear program budget is only less than 1% of our GDP.

unlike indian we never bow to anyone when our country is invaded.we will fight till the last of our breath.

please no more hollow threats. bring it on.i am sure alone from bannu thousand will join to kill the slaves.i mean the official slaves of muslims

 

[farhan_9909]

first we will make you bankrupt, then cut your country in style. We are doing as plan.

how will you bankrupt us?our defence budget is 2.4% of our GDP compared to india 2.2%

so we are not over spending..the nuclear program budget is only less than 1% of our GDP.

unlike indian we never bow to anyone when our country is invaded.we will fight till the last of our breath.

please no more hollow threats. bring it on.i am sure alone from bannu thousand will join to kill the slaves.i mean the official slaves of muslims

 

[JBH22]

how will you bankrupt us?our defence budget is 2.4% of our GDP compared to india 2.2%

so we are not over spending..the nuclear program budget is only less than 1% of our GDP.

unlike indian we never bow to anyone when our country is invaded.we will fight till the last of our breath.

please no more hollow threats. bring it on.i am sure alone from bannu thousand will join to kill the slaves.i mean the official slaves of muslims

you are suffering from senile dementia.

You never bow to anyone?? then how about drones shoving up hellfire missiles in your a$$es daily.

What about East Pakistan, fighting to the last man.

Russia had to spent around 50.8mio dollar daily on fuel only for the war with Georgia, how is Pakistan going to sustain such fuel imports??

Get to facts not on your delusion or wishful thinking

 

[farhan_9909]

So i got it from Ahmad bhai..i hope you know who he is.

It does not matter whether a reactor is 50 MW or 100MW or above to be suitable for producing weapon-grade plutonium or Pu-239. Obtaining this isotope depends on the burn-up rate of the reactor and the fact that it has to be a natural uranium fuelled heavy water moderated plutonium production reactor design like the one in Khushab. India's two dedicated plutonium production reactors were 40t MW CIRUS and 100 MWt Dhruva. All Khushab reactors are again between 40 and 70 MWt.

Normally such reactors are operated at burn up rates of 500 to 1200 MWd/ton, which ideally produces weapon-grade plutonium-239 and lesser of the other plutonium isotopes. Even if a power reactor of 1500 MW is operated at these rates, it will also yield weapon-grade plutonium-239. Low burn ups however require much more fuel as the time the fuel is irradiated or burnt in the core of the reactor is much less and therefore it has to be replaced with fresh fuel relatively quickly as compared to high burn up rates.

A power reactor for example normally runs at burn ups of 33000 MWd/t and a breeder reactor is an entirely different class of reactors that Pakistan does not have, nor has India succeeded in running one as yet. Breeders have no moderators and run at very high burn-up rates and have different core designs altogether.

Breeders produce more fuel than they consume. Plutonium production reactors are heavy water moderated and produce only 0.9 kg of fuel per ton of uranium fuel at low burn up rates. Breeders also use MOX fuels and production reactors use natural uranium fuel.

A reprocessing plant cannot change the isotopic content of the spent fuel from a reactor but only chemically separates and recovers the weapon-grade plutonium from other isotopes and unburnt uranium.

The fourth Khushab reactor appears to be identical to the earlier second and third and will most probably be a their duplicate copy. It is fairly simple and easy to replicate what you have already made once you gain the experience and know-how. That was the significance of the first Khushab reactor which must have been far more difficult to build as the nuclear and engineering infrastructure in Pakistan was still not very well developed in the 1980s.

Thanks to the vision of Munir Ahmad Khan who began work on K-1 along with the heavy water plant in 1986 against teeth of opposition at home, several infrastructure projects were also launched in PAEC such as HMC-3 which have now contributed to the relatively fast construction of the second, third and fourth reactors.

The fourth reactor is yet another indication that Pakistan has finally realized the importance of accumulating plutonium stocks to match India in developing advanced, compact and miniaturized warheads for ballistic and cruise missiles, especially if you want to go for MIRVs and Submarine based nuclear deterrent. HEU does a much smaller bang for a buck compared to plutonium.

It shows we can build our own reactors and don't rely on any external help. This should place the metallurgist A Q Khan at rest who does not tire blaming PAEC for not building their own reactor in 50 years.

Institute for Science and International Security › ISIS Reports › Pakistan › Pakistan Doubling Rate of Making Nuclear Weapons: Time for Pakistan to Reverse Course

Pakistan appears to want warheads small enough to fit on cruise missiles it is currently developing. It also may want larger yield (50-100 kiloton) fission weapons that can cause far more damage to Indian cities than its current relatively low-yield weapons. In addition, plutonium-based fission weapons could enable Pakistan to build deliverable thermonuclear weapons (i.e., hydrogen bombs). Thus, the recent activity at Khushab should be viewed as further evidence of an accelerated nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan.

 

[JBH22]

Pictures of so called Al Bakistanis who do not surrender because of their religion as per farhaan words of wisdom.

1971 War

[video]https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRbOYL1l_JOsSOoo7MAzWkfhkHfgP0LK q0T3W93jakkf8VOjxQn[/video]

Kargil War

 

[Prometheus]

we do as well as much necessary

Upgraded variant of yarmook is in development.

meanwhile we are also producing Rockets of a-100 MRL locally apart from exporing

i am sure your figure is wrong..1000 rockets per year is a wrong figure..

Pakistan isnt producing any rockets ...its producing big rocks to throw at the mighty Indian army , pak doesnt have any money to give salaries to its army personnel. I am sure the Pakistani general seeks to counter cold start with civilians throwing big rocks at the indian army since there wont be a Pak army to fight Indian armed forces ....I would say its a good investment ! its what your brothers in Gaza are doing =))

 

[farhan_9909]

you are suffering from senile dementia.

You never bow to anyone?? then how about drones shoving up hellfire missiles in your a$$es daily.

What about East Pakistan, fighting to the last man.

Russia had to spent around 50.8mio dollar daily on fuel only for the war with Georgia, how is Pakistan going to sustain such fuel imports??

Get to facts not on your delusion or wishful thinking

Well Pakistan has almost secured a 15billions dollars deferred payment oil agreement for Saudi arabia already

Talking to an indian about a war is wasting your time.

east pakistan turned into bangladesh because of our leaders..the bangladesh themselves wanted to get seperated.otherwise even in 1965 india could enter the forces in and seperate the bangladesh..but that was not possible..

well we will what happens in the 2015-16 war

 

[farhan_9909]

Pakistan isnt producing any rockets ...its producing big rocks to throw at the mighty Indian army , pak doesnt have any money to give salaries to its army personnel. I am sure the Pakistani general seeks to counter cold start with civilians throwing big rocks at the indian army since there wont be a Pak army to fight Indian armed forces ....I would say its a good investment ! its what your brothers in Gaza are doing =))

what kind of reply is this?

should i post the news of world 1/3rd of poors are in india?if you want to.

dont derail the thread atleast

 

[JBH22]

Well Pakistan has almost secured a 15billions dollars deferred payment oil agreement for Saudi arabia already

Talking to an indian about a war is wasting your time.

east pakistan turned into bangladesh because of our leaders..the bangladesh themselves wanted to get seperated.otherwise even in 1965 india could enter the forces in and seperate the bangladesh..but that was not possible..

well we will what happens in the 2015-16 war

Of course the break up of your country was done by your leaders, they are such incompetent.

But still you did not answer how are you going to finance that war??

Begging from KSA for 15billion loans?

But why 2015 your pathetic army fought four wars and still could not do anything thing.inspite of your theories of 1p0rki=10IA soldiers

let me enjoy my pork chops with some beer

 

[p2prada]

They are not.because i am quoting your nuclear scientist claim now.the western sources might speculate..and i agree about that part..but your nuclear scientist which infact was involved in your nuclear program said they were dud.so i believe in your nuclear scientist more than anyone else

So he clearly said the test failed.

Pokhran-II thermonuclear test, a failure | The Hindu

No, he didn't say the test failed, he said that the test was not fully successful. The objective was 45KN, the govt line is 45KN was achieved. His line is half was achieved. Whatever the case he was generating media support against signing the CTBT claiming more tests are needed. Whatever is the truth, Sanathan succeeded in forcing the govt to reject the CTBT.

less than 20kg each is a joke.reactor designed in the 90's and a reactor made operational in 2012.as i said earlier the capacity of Atleast the 4th khushab series reactor is no less than 50-60kg per year.any i will post about this later..i had searched alot about a older western source which claimed that the 4th reactor could be the reason of pakistan aim of developing thermonuclear weapons.i dont remember the article title but it was posted in pakdef and if you know the older site is dead now.

It doesn't matter. You wanna go against physics, go ahead. How much uranium do you think a 50MWt reactor needs and how much plutonium will be made. I already gave you figures for the FTBR, 50Kg Plutonium for a 40MWt reactor.

Its like saying you put 3 litres of fuel in your car and it will go 1000Km. It is a 50MWt reactor, don't expect it to do the work of a 500MWt reactor.

It doesn't matter if the reactor was made in 1950 or 2050, a 50MWt reactor will use 50MWt worth of fuel. If you think a 50Kg Uranium fuel designed for 25 years will deliver 60 Kg of Plutonium every year, then you are all eating grass.

I don't know the capacity of the 4th reactor, if you have info post it. Nevertheless satellite photographs show it is of the same size and design as the other three.

Institute for Science and International Security › ISIS Reports › Pakistan › Construction Progressing Rapidly on the Fourth Heavy Water Reactor at the Khushab Nuclear Site

In addition to the fourth reactor, the Khushab site includes two reactors similar in shape to the fourth one, a heavy water production plant, and an original, nominal 50 megawatt-thermal (MW-th) heavy water reactor completed in 1998. The completion of the fourth Khushab reactor would constitute a significant increase in Pakistan's ability to make plutonium which appears related to its goal of building a large number of smaller nuclear weapons.

we had the capability upto 40kt in 98..we now spend upto 2.5billions usd on our nuclear program each year.we have the surplus plutonium,we have the site and the know how.for cities like mumbai and delhi...Pak must have warhead in excess of 200kt.smaller warheads of 50kt size could be for the rest of the country.in 2020 pakistan nuclear arsenal if it add 26 warheads per year and add to this new reactor.if an average for this decade pak manufacture 35 warheads per year..by 2020 we will have upto 400-500 warheads from tactical nukes to massive megaton warheads

You are overestimating your capability. Even the US and Russians had a large number of huge reactors for this work. The Americans built 6 250 MWe reactors in the 40s for their project compared to one 10MWt research reactor followed by the 3 and now 4 15MWe Khushab reactors.

what about the radiation?indian cities are very dense populated.i am not underestimating indian BMD..i dont even consider them as something worth worrying.beside this as said earlier less than 50kt wont be used against indian cities

Yes radiation is dangerous, but not if it is treated in time. Civilians in the immediate vicinity will die. The real killers of a nuclear attack is injuries, debris and disease that follows after.

Anyway, your nukes will be far too weak and inferior to affect the whole country.

As an example, there have been 2000 nuclear tests in the world from subkiloton explosions to 50MT explosions that shook the earth, involving subterranean, surface, under water, over water and space tests. Where is the fallout?

Nuclear Fallout

50 cities were my estimation..i am sure they will nuke upto 150-180 cities of india.
please take out them.than we will what can pak take out in return

You will make 150-180 350m craters in India, enough to take out apartment complexes involving at best around a few million deaths including fallout, disease and lack of medical treatment. A far cry from the billion deaths you claimed.

You are trying to bring in superpower level destruction to the subcontinent with our tiny, minuscule arsenals.

You are incorrectly comparing the effects of 150 low yield fission bombs to even 50 thermonukes India may drop on Pakistan.

As a matter of fact, it all depends on the yield of the bomb. For eg: with a 20kT explosion there would be many people who would experience radiation sickness. With larger bombs of the 100, 200kT and more radiation sickness will be moot. Burns will be more dangerous. A 1 MT explosion should kill a lot of people at a very wide radius, primarily through burns from the firestorm, even upto 30 or 40Km, but the structural damage will only be a few broken windows and maybe a few scratches on living tissue.

Ultimately the effects of fallout isn't as drastic or dangerous as the effects of the immediate blast and release of radiation.

There is also the rule of 7 where, 90% of the radiation is gone in the first 7 hours. And the fact that higher the yield, lesser is the fallout.

how much?30kg per warhead?for a country tha has the capability of producing upto 176kg of weapon grade plutonium per year and might increase to upto 300kg per year before the end of this decade

Where will you get Plutonium to feed your reactors?

Pakistan alone will produce twice the present indian warhead stockpile within this decade alone

3 or 4 15MWe reactors against multiple 220MWe, 700MWe and 500MWe reactors that India has.

What about tritium, the main component required for thermonukes. Don't forget we plan on being a surplus exporter of tritium.

i am sure you know as well.we have tritium production facility since 80's and each khushab series reactor have there own

You barely had one or two reactors at the time.

western sources claim that the reason behind 4th khushav series reactor is the pakistan aim for thermonuclear weapons

Not with another 15MWe reactor.

Ah we are producing tritium from the past 3 decades.imagine how much we will have.
i had heard that a slight amount of tritium can increase the yield by almost 300%

Huh... And here we are talking about exporting surplus tritium.

No, you don't have thermonukes. Only fission devices. Your facilities are too small for thermonukes.

India built 50 reactos or 1000 it doesnt matter to us.india has 1 trillions warhead it doesnt matter to us.

our goal is to have 500 warheads uptil 2020-25.

Yes, 500 20kT bombs. Anyway, that's an ass-pulled number, admit it. It is not official.

Let's not forget we will have a full fledged BMD by then with thousands of SAMS. Let's not forget that we are looking at deterring China as well, which means we will have enough protective firepower to potentially neutralize your entire arsenal.

Also let's not forget that our 150-180 cities will be all the more bigger and we will have even more cities to boot, in the next 10-15 years.

Is your hate so blinded that you would risk annihilation at the expense of temporarily wounding us?

Even 500 bombs won't take out the country.

Reactor under construction in Pakistan

Chashma II
Chashma III
Pakistan nuclear fuel complex is a mix reactor which will produce yellow cake uranium as well as generation of 1000mw of electricity

Deal signed with china
Kanup II 1000mw

Deal to be signed within few months with china
A new series reactor..the first one of 1100mw.for more detail read the article recently posted by me in pakistan section

All under IAEA safeguards. So none will be used for weapon production.

Your only military reactors are the ones at Khushab.

 

[rock127]

Pakistan isnt producing any rockets ...its producing big rocks to throw at the mighty Indian army , pak doesnt have any money to give salaries to its army personnel. I am sure the Pakistani general seeks to counter cold start with civilians throwing big rocks at the indian army since there wont be a Pak army to fight Indian armed forces ....I would say its a good investment ! its what your brothers in Gaza are doing =))

Soon they would be left with stones/rocks the way their economy is going down.

 

[p2prada]

So i got it from Ahmad bhai..i hope you know who he is.

I don't know who he is, but he doesn't explain anything about your overestimated claims of 170Kg production.

Institute for Science and International Security "º ISIS Reports "º Pakistan "º Pakistan Doubling Rate of Making Nuclear Weapons: Time for Pakistan to Reverse Course

This merely supports my theory that you are making 20kT class weapons. The fact that you will need to scale up is a moot point, since you want that capability, not necessary that you have it as you claimed you have been doing for decades.

 

[JBH22]

@Kunal Biswas why you deleted his post.

I could not read it,see this guy is here to entertain us don't give him infractions

 

[Singh]

@Bhadra If CSD is intended to deal a crippling blow to the PA, why not use a barrage of conventional missiles instead of risking the lives of Indian troops?

My understanding.

Pakistan has no way of knowing if the Indian Ballistic Missiles flying overhead are nuclear tipped or not. And their response might be to fire nuclear tipped ballistic missiles

What will bring Pakistan quickly to the negotiating table will be a significant capture of their territory or massive damage to their military operational capability both of which CSD aims to achieve.

CSD will be India's version of a limited professional war.

 

[sayareakd]

Pakistan did not have a "No First Use Policy". Pakistani nuclear weapons would be used, according to Director-General Strategic Planning Division (SPD) Lt-General (retd) Khalid Kidwai, only "if the very existence of Pakistan as a state is at stake". This was detailed by Gen. Kidwai as follows:

Nuclear weapons are aimed solely at India. In case that deterrence fails, they will be used if
a. India attacks Pakistan and conquers a large part of its territory (space threshold)
b. India destroys a large part either of its land or air forces (military threshold)
c. India proceeds to the economic strangling of Pakistan (economic strangling)
d. India pushes Pakistan into political destabilization or creates a large scale internal subversion in Pakistan (domestic destabilization)"

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/pakistan/doctrine.htmm

 

[TrueSpirit]

My understanding.

Pakistan has no way of knowing if the Indian Ballistic Missiles flying overhead are nuclear tipped or not. And their response might be to fire nuclear tipped ballistic missiles

What will bring Pakistan quickly to the negotiating table will be a significant capture of their territory or massive damage to their military operational capability both of which CSD aims to achieve.

CSD will be India's version of a limited professional war.

100% true. Ballistic are not the de-facto war-fighting armaments. Instead, cruise missiles, aerial bombardments & long range rackets are preferred for such purposes.