Civil war in Ukraine

[arpakola]

The junta complains !! of massive shelling of positions of Ukrainian armed forces under the Starognatovk.
Apparently most of those killed fell on the label hit gunners VSN
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Battery of howitzers D-30 APU fires.

21 killed at a time is not very weak, but besides that 5 was killed near Mariupol and fuck knows how many on other sites. 300 you have to understand yesterday was well over fifty, if you still can't count.
Remarkably, the attempts of the junta to step up here fighting, the losses of the parties in mutual shelling here was quite moderate, but after failing the APU to capture the New Lase and the ensuing fighting, the increased tensions, and the amount of losses that were clearly not in favor of the APU. It is highly likely that if not a bad idea to try to take the New Lase, a lot of people still would be alive.
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Yesterday, while in Minsk negotiations were held http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/2357759.htmlin the Donbas again gushed out blood.

1. According to official figures for yesterday, DNR 1 killed (woman killed by a sniper) and 12 wounded (5 soldiers and 7 civilians - mostly due to attacks).

"One person was killed and another 12 wounded in the DPR as a result of shelling by the AFU in 24 hours. The woman died from a sniper's bullet. Reported the transfer to the district of Donetsk 50 Ukrainian military snipers. Mat tonight fired six social facilities. The APU in the last days was released on the territory of the Republic of 350 rounds. Invaders during the day, was carried out 30 attacks on human settlements DND. Under the blows of the army of Ukraine fell Donetsk (Petrovsky and Kuibyshevsky districts), Gorlovka, Dokuchaevsk and Uglegorsk, settlements zaytsevo, Aleksandrovka, Kulikovo, Froze, Golmovsky, Black Grave mound, the New Type, Old Type, White stove. Fire impact was coming from the positions of the APU from n of the village, Novotroitsk, Starognatovk, viktorivka, Traniee and the Food. Mat pulled to the front lines of new units a total of up to 460 people. In A. p. Granite (12 km from Telmanovo) installed arrival up to 90 people of staff of divisions of Marines, 120 people from the airborne division. There's also marked the arrival of two companies of up to 250 people. In addition, in Granite exploration DNR has identified 5 new tanks, 2 armored personnel carrier, BMP 5, 2 howitzers D-30."

The APU does a rainy day yesterday - 7 200 and 300 17-x under the Volnovaha (not counting the other sites, where a minimum was 5 deaths and 15-20 wounded http://dnr-news.com/dnr/24557-pod-mariupolem-pogibli-pyat-boycov-vsu-donbass.html). The details of the fighting and shelling near Volnovakha is not yet known, with one side likely that the junta was trying to conduct a reconnaissance in force, but apparently there's just artillery VSN successfully worked. The defense Ministry mournfully reported that "large losses".

2. The Russian foreign Ministry today once again noted that the junta continues to concentrate troops at the front lines with offensive intentions.
The junta responded by criminal case https://russian.rt.com/article/111557 against Deputy head of the Russian foreign Ministry.
The Americans rather trite indicated that the junta executes Minsk, and Moscow is not, so to speak demonstrating that the opinion of the Kremlin on the topic of what is actually on the contrary, Washington is not very exciting.

3. Plus more on the topic of losses under the Volnovaha. 17 avgusta there was the car accident. Injured 8 people.

4. Plus it's worth noting that one of the suspects in the destruction of a Malaysian "Boeing" captain Voloshin decided to publicly defend himself, supposedly was not shot down "Boeing".

SU-25 is not designed to targets such as Boeing.
First, we fly below. Secondly, tell that to climb to such a height can, but even if you can, then the speed with which you will be flying the aircraft at a given altitude will be insufficient. Thirdly, the rockets that are "refined", we have, but we never with themselves to sortie did not take.
According to preliminary data of the investigation, the explosion occurred near the cockpit, in close proximity to the pilots. Our missiles with thermal homing head. I mean, if this missile and flew in this plane, she would have gone specifically into the engine and not in the cockpit.
In General, this is nonsense.
Importantly, we did not perform flights on 17 July 2014. We didn't have weather. Elementary. But nobody even thinks.
Because the aircraft can perform takeoffs and landings at a certain meteomedia. It is a measure of cloudiness, visibility, horizontal...
Yes, Boeing was flying. But, sorry, the "Boeing" and means much cooler than the su-25. Boeing landing can go without visibility stripes. And we can't – only when visual sight, while hers was not.
It was raining, it was overcast, 10 points, the sky was completely closed by clouds. We could not fly.
I understand that the Russian media just decided to make me a specific victim.
As it became known, against me made man, a former soldier, who testified that, well, I was doing that day flights, I was fitted with missiles of this type, and I was told certain things, literally say, "It was not the plane". And yet, later in the evening, I was told that "there was nothing to fly."
The name of this person Agapov. At first his face was concealed, surname not indicated, and opened it in the spring.
This man served in our part. As I know, served in the same squadron as a mechanic armament. Performance reviews about this man not the most flattering. And he gave against me false information.
While nominally, this person shows some true things: what was the flight of three aircraft, two of which were shot down. That day I came back upset. Yes, this situation happened, but this situation was 23, six days have passed since that moment, as brought down "Boeing"!
Yes, indeed, I saw him take down two of the aircraft, I got upset, of course. And so, this man was framed the events of the 23rd such event on the 17th.
Further. People who believe his words, though, would have thought he was an ordinary soldier, how could he know what I was going to talk to the commander?
The unit commander is the person Here... imagine that I am now fit and will start with the President to talk without an appointment. Yeah I don't let us near him! Here is the same principle we have in the army.
Just like the commander of the soldier is not suitable. Only in reporting lines. That is, he has his direct commander. If he wants to ask any question, either to listen or to talk, he should approach his commander to negotiate with him. If the commander is unable to resolve the issue, then he turns to the senior chief.
And this man says that, well, he was a witness of our with the commander of the conversation. Yes he was not physically able to be a witness to this conversation, even if such a conversation was. This is the first.
And secondly, on the airfield, where we were based at that time, the commander was absent. He was at the airfield our permanent home.
...Agapov says that initially he was against "all this". But at the same time he was a mechanic armament, he hung weapons, ammunition on the plane – that is, he was directly involved in everything.
If I'm not mistaken, in the 20's of December he fled Ukraine, moved to the territory of the Russian Federation.
How they found him, he reached out to them – I can't say. But he knowingly gave false information about me.

PS. Here it should be noted that the testimony Voloshin at odds with the testimony of witnesses who observed the attack positions VSN the day of the catastrophe "Boeing", as well as witnesses who saw the plane coming away with the wreck. What Voloshin decided to bring in the light suggests that the testimony Agapova attaches considerable importance and trying to disavow, especially in the middle of October to announce the results of the investigation on the "Boeing", so we will see and hear a lot of statements and justifications.

5. It is also worth noting that once people strelkov created the Union of veterans of the war in the Donbass, quite urgently have any spoiler led Boroday. Apparently, the antagonism will continue, which will lead to the fact that instead of one veteran's organization, there will be a few - 2-3 large and several smaller ones.

 

[Akim]

In Zaporozhye overlaid tires and set fire to the monument to "Victims of fascism"

Not in Zaporozhye - in Melitopol.

 

[Akim]

Opened its first logistics center at 0 km at a checkpoint Zaytsevo.(Donetsk region)

 

[soldier of Putin]

The chocolate seller gets a rap on the knuckles from Frau Bundeskanzlerin Merkel.


Greek debt crisis, EU migrants crisis, falling markets....it's all too much for Merkel

News article: Merkel Tells Poroshenko to Cool It, Respect Minsk II Ceasefire

Look at Poroshenko's face. Soldiers are dying every day and he laughs. Soldiers lives mean nothing to an oligarch like himself. Ukrainians are better off immigrating to Russia. Ukraine and its oligarchs are not worth fighting and dying for.

 

[pmaitra]

With your permission, I'm not going to retell it. The attitude of the dominant. Very similar to how the Americans are Europeans. Only on a more primitive level. citizens of the USSR/Russia never treated as equals to the citizens of India and Southeast Asia.

You have a tendency to seek out the negatives. You even posted a picture from a Russian city that was flooded. Your mind is filled with filth, and you seek out filth, and you post filth. Primitive level is a term best used for the Kiev regime. USSR is the only developed country that treated India as equals. Every other developed country treated India with disdain and with condescension. Radio show? Pffft. I know way too many Russians personally to buy your drivel.

Attitude of Russians towards Indians? How about I tell you the attitude of East Ukrainians towards the Galicians and Lvovians? In the year 2008, I met a young man from Donetsk (initials: A. S.). I asked him, "so you are from Ukraine?" He responded with emphasis, "I'm not Ukrainian; I'm Russian." (Note: I did not ask him whether he was Ukrainian, I just asked him whether he was from Ukraine.)

Later that day, we went sailing together. He isn't the only person from Ukraine that I know.

Anyway, I will expect more delirium, are there will be even less birch trees left to extract barks, boil in water, and drink from. See below.

 

[pmaitra]

Ukraine Reaches Agreement With Creditors - But the Figures Don’t Add Up
Ukraine secured only half the write-off it wanted and the amount involved doesn’t seem enough to fill the hole in its IMF programme.

Alexander Mercouris | Russia Insider

Owes $72 billion in total - will collect $22 billion in revenue in 2015

An announcement on 27th August 2015 has confirmed that Ukraine has reached a restructuring deal with its private creditors.

However, as the article from the Financial Times attached below makes clear, it is far from certain that the deal comes anywhere close to meeting Ukraine’s needs.

On the face of it the agreement looks like a bad deal for Ukraine.

Ukraine was demanding a 40% haircut. It got only 20%.

Ukraine’s creditors have also agreed to delay bond (ie capital) payments on the remaining debt for four years, though Ukraine will have to continue to make coupon (interest) payments at a slightly higher rate during this period.

In return Ukraine has agreed to a GDP linked security that will pay its creditors a percentage of its economic growth after the debt repayment holiday ends in 2019. It seems 40% of any economic growth over 4% will have to be used to pay off debt. This will be on top of any regular capital and interest payments that fall due.

That suggests a very heavy period of debt repayments after 2019, after the four year bond payment holiday ends, and when the IMF programme also ends.

Not surprisingly the Financial Times reports worries amongst financial analysts that this may be too heavy a burder for Ukraine to bear.

Judging from the last paragraph of the Financial Times’ article, Ukraine may be hoping to overcome this problem by further borrowing in the capital markets.

It remains to be seen whether lenders, once they have done the sums, will be prepared to lend it extra money.

The agreement still needs some creditors to agree. The pressure on them to do so will however be so great that it is a virtual certainty they will do so.

The agreement does not cover the $3 billion payment on the eurobond held by Russia, which matures in December.

What are the implications of this agreement?

Firstly, though the IMF is backing the agreement (it has no other choice), it is far from obvious that the sums add up.

The IMF’s latest programme assumes a reduction of Ukraine’s total debt repayments over the duration of the programme of $15 billion.

The Financial Times says the total amount of debt at issue in the negotiations is $18 billion, and says the value of the haircut is $3.6 billion (20% of $18 billion).

TASS says the total amount of debt at issue in the negotiations is $19.2 billion, and says the value of the haircut is $3.8 billion (20% of $19.2 billion).

TASS may be giving the more accurate figure. The Financial Times also says the total value of the write off is “close to $4 billion” - which seems more consistent with TASS’s $3.8 billion figure than the Financial Times’ $3.6 billion.

There is no information on how much Ukraine will save as a result of the cancellation of the interest payments for the debt that is subject the haircut. Nor do we know how much relief it will get from the four year bond payment holiday.

However, on the face of it, whether the haircut is worth $3.6 billion or $3.8 billion, the sums look too small to come anywhere close to hitting the $15 billion debt reduction target the IMF was looking for.

Ukraine’s demand for a 40% haircut by contrast would have written off £7.2 billion if the debt is $18 billion, or $7.68 billion if it is $19.2 billion, which together with cancelled interest payments and the four year bond payment holiday might have brought the debt relief target of $15 billion within sight.

More clarity will be provided as more information becomes available. However the Financial Times’ pessimism about the sustainability of what has just been agreed tells its own story.

If the $15 billion debt reduction target is not being achieved, then unless the West provides more money or Ukraine’s economy suddenly improves, the IMF programme will fail.

Why did this agreement take so long to agree - especially given the immense pressure from Western governments on the creditors to settle - and why is it so unfavourable to Ukraine?

Firstly, it is important to say that it was not because the creditors anticipated that in the absence of an agreement the IMF would pull the plug on Ukraine - forcing Ukraine to settle on their terms.

As we have previously reported the IMF - under political pressure - has said it will support Ukraine regardless of whether it comes to an agreement with its creditors or not.

Nor is it likely that the creditors thought that if Ukraine defaulted they would get all their money back through credit default swaps. These were unlikely to come anywhere close to compensating the creditors fully for the money they would have lost.

The creditors held out because what Ukraine was demanding was completely unreasonable.

Ukraine’s debt is not unsustainable. The Financial Times says the total amount Ukraine must pay on its debt (public and private) is $72 billion.

This ought to be perfectly sustainable for a country that is the second biggest in Europe, has a well-educated population of more than 40 million people, and which is blessed with an abundance of natural resources, large industries, a lengthy coastline, and some of the most fertile agricultural land in the world.

By contrast Greece, with a total debt of $350 billion, is a small country, has a population of just 11 million people, has very few industries, and few natural resources.

Parallels people make between the situations of Greece and Ukraine are simply wrong. Greece’s debt is obviously unsustainable. Ukraine’s debt is not.

The reason Ukraine is failing to pay its debt is not because its debt is unsustainable. It is because Ukraine is chronically mismanaged and insists on waging war rather than restoring its economy by making peace.

The creditors therefore question why they should be asked to agree to huge haircuts when - provided Ukraine ends the war and sorts out its problems - it is perfectly capable of paying them the money it owes them.

The Financial Times explains the creditors’ position clearly:

“Bondholders had rejected Ukraine’s assertion that they must take a 40 per cent upfront loss, arguing that the country’s problems were mutable and that a temporary freeze in debt payments would be a better solution, delaying a final deal until political and economic problems calm.”

Ukraine did not help its case by acting as if the creditors were under some sort of moral duty to write off the debt; and by constantly complaining that it was spending more on debt payments than on defence - leading to the inevitable suspicion that it was intending to use any money saved on debt payments to fund the war.

The result is what looks like an unsatisfactory outcome both for Ukraine and the IMF. Given the political pressure they will doubtless press on with their programme, but the sums do not look like they add up.

Recent news of the deterioration of Ukraine’s economy anyway calls the IMF’s whole programme into question. Even if a much bigger haircut had been agreed it seems unlikely the sums offered are anywhere near enough to turn Ukraine’s economy round.

It seems only capital controls are preventing the Ukrainian currency’s complete crash, and without a political breakthrough leading to an end the war there must be a question over how long the situation can hold.

In the short term this unsatisfactory agreement must however increase the possibility that Ukraine will look for some way to default on the $3 billion eurobond it owes Russia, which matures in December.

The Russians have categorically ruled out any restructuring of this debt, a position they have just reiterated.

Given the financial pressure they are under following an agreement that fails to meet their needs, there must now be strong pressure on the Ukrainians to default on this debt, and certain comments made by Yatsenyuk suggest as much.

As I have discussed previously, if Ukraine defaults on this debt bitter legal disputes will follow, with the Russians insisting that it is public debt and the Ukrainians arguing - implausibly - that it is not. These disputes alone might suffice to derail the whole IMF programme.

Regardless of what happens to this particular debt, Ukraine’s position, following what looks like a deeply unsatisfactory agreement, looks grim.

From the Financial Times:

Ukraine has secured an agreement to avert default and restructure billions of dollars of government debt in a deal that could see international investors write off close to $4bn.

Creditors, including San-Francisco based Franklin Templeton and Brazilian investment bank BTG Pactual, have accepted the proposal for a 20 per cent haircut on $18bn of theembattled country’s bonds as well as delaying debt repayment by four years.

In return they will receive a GDP-linked security that will pay holders a percentage of Ukraine’s economic growth from 2021.

However, questions remain over whether the hard-won deal, which is supported by the International Monetary Fund, will result in solvency for the country, as conflict with pro-Russian separatists imposes a heavier than expected toll on the economy.

“Ukraine could face further liquidity issues when the IMF programme is over so the extension of debt repayments is crucial,” says Vadim Khramov, strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Under the plans agreed by Ukraine and creditors, bond repayments will be extended by four years while coupon payments will be slightly higher than the current 7.2 per cent average at 7.75 per cent. A GDP-linked warrant will be provided from 2021 to 2040 that will pay out up to 40 per cent of the value of annual economic growth above 4 per cent, although total payments will be capped at 1 per cent for the first four years.

The haircut on government bonds could mean immediate debt relief of up to $3.6bn. However holdouts on some bonds are expected by analysts, including Russia’s $3bn bond due to mature in December.

Kiev’s deal to restructure its $72bn government debt burden follows months of negotiations with investors who hold close to $9bn of Ukrainian bonds.

Although the creditor committee of Franklin Templeton, T Rowe Price, BTG Pactual and TCW have agreed to the plans with the Kiev government, other bondholders will need to be persuaded of a deal in order for a majority to agree relief on each bond.

Once the plans are submitted to Ukraine’s parliament, a prospectus will be published in mid-September and bondholders will vote on the restructuring proposal. The timing means that repayment of a $500m bond due on September 23 will be suspended while creditors consider the plans.

In August officials from Kiev, including US-born minister of finance Natalie Jaresko, flew to San Francisco, home city of Franklin Templeton, for emergency meetings as an upsurge of fighting with Russian-backed separatists controlling breakaway eastern regions of Ukraine focused attention on the deal.

Bondholders had rejected Ukraine’s assertion that they must take a 40 per cent upfront loss, arguing that the country’s problems were mutable and that a temporary freeze in debt payments would be a better solution, delaying a final deal until political and economic problems calm.

Relations with private sector creditors had soured since spring as the two sides clashed over the question of whether investors must write down their holdings in order for Ukraine to meet the terms of the IMF’s four-year $17.5bn bailout, designed to take the country’s debt below 71 per cent of GDP by 2020.

Earlier this year Ukraine took the highly unusual step of passing a bill in parliament that allows the government to halt payments on some foreign debts by declaring a moratorium, a term described by one international credit lawyer as “a polite word for default”.

The IMF alluded to the uncertainty in early August when it reiterated that although it expected Ukraine’s debt operation to be completed, it was willing to support the country even if debt discussions failed and a moratorium was imposed.

However, the repercussions of Ukraine defaulting on its debt would have been severe.

Ukrainian bonds, issued under English law, contain cross-default clauses that mean missed payments on one can trigger default on all, allowing bondholders to demand repayment, drag a country into lengthy legal battles and exacerbating existing economic problems.

S&P, the credit rating agency, said that a sovereign default would also worsen already tight liquidity in Ukraine’s banking sector, triggering panic-driven deposit withdrawals.

If Ukraine succeeds in a debt restructuring it could plausibly return to international debt markets within a year, said Yerlan Syzdykov, head of emerging markets debt at Pioneer Investments. The country has said that it plans to come back to the market by 2017.

Market prices for Ukrainian bonds have recovered in recent weeks as hopes rose that the country would avoid default, with a Ukrainian $2.6bn bond due to mature in 2017 trading at 57.4 cents on the dollar ahead of talks, up from 39.5 cents in March.​

 

[pmaitra]

Russia Won’t Take a Haircut on Its Ukraine Loan as West Wants
And why should it? The west continues to pretend that since private creditors are taking a haircut on their loans so should Russia - but Russia is not a private entity and meanwhile western institutions and states are refusing to take a haircut themselves

• A reminder - by the terms of the agreement Russia could have called in the loan a year ago - but opted not to

(Zero Hedge) | Russia Insider


Annoyed

This article originally appeared at Zero Hedge

War-torn Ukraine has reportedly reached a restructuring deal with a group of creditors headed by Franklin Templeton, according to the country’s finance minister Natalie Jaresko. The terms of the agreement call for a 20% writedown and a reprofiling that includes a maturity extension of four years and an across-the-board 7.75% coupon.

President Petro Poroshenko hopes the restructuring deal will save the country billions on the way to helping Kiev adhere to the terms of its IMF bailout. Here’s more from Bloomberg:

The 49-year-old Ukrainian leader, elected last year after becoming a billionaire in the chocolate business, was racing to reach a comprehensive accord with creditors before a $500 million bond comes due next month.

Ukraine will temporarily suspend payments on that bond and a 600 million-euro ($677 million) note due in October, the Finance Ministry said in today’s statement. The country has a further $4 billion of payments scheduled by year’s end.

A final agreement requires the approval of 75 percent of bondholders of each note at a meeting in which at least two-thirds of them are represented. Ukraine’s debt contains cross-default clauses that mean missing a payment on one results in default on all.

The government earlier threatened to declare a debt moratorium to push negotiations along.

Franklin Templeton, which owns about $7 billion of Ukrainian bonds, were joined in the talks by fellow creditors BTG Pactual Europe LLP, TCW Investment Management Co. and T. Rowe Price Associates Inc.​

Went up on the news

One person who will not be accepting the new terms is newly-minted bond vulture Vladimir Putin who, back in March, threatened to undermine negotiations with other creditors by holding out on some $3 billion in 2-year notes Moscow bought back in 2013 to help out then-President Viktor Yanukovych. “Russia won’t participate in Ukraine’s debt restructuring,” Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Bloomberg by telephone.

Jaresko said she’s “offering Russia a restructuring opportunity that is the same as everyone else’s” which she figures is “the best way to depoliticize” the issue and “for us to all move forward together.”

That, apparently, is not in the cards, but there is still a distinct possibility that everyone will move backward together. Just ask Poroshenko who told a crowd on Monday at a ceremony in central Kiev to mark 24 years of Ukrainian independence from Moscow that:

“We have to get through the (coming) 25th year of independence as if on brittle ice.

We must understand that the smallest misstep could be fatal. The war for Ukrainian independence is continuing.” ​

And then there’s this, via Reuters:

Seven Ukrainian servicemen have been killed and 13 wounded in fighting with pro-Russian separatists in the past 24 hours, military spokesman Oleksander Motuzyanyk said on Thursday.

The casualties were the highest daily losses for the Ukrainian army since mid-July, as violence continues to test a six-month-old ceasefire deal.​

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s central bank took the country 300 bps “closer” to ZIRP, slashing rates 300bps to only 27% citing, amusingly, “a fall in inflationary risks.”

Needless to say, the situation in Ukraine is a very, very long way from stabilizing and as we’ve detailed extensively of late, there’s a non-zero possibility that one or more of the country’s unofficial militias (whose leaders have been the subject of not-so-flattering comparisons to a certain fascist political movement that attempted to take over the world in 1939) will attempt a military coup even as the separatists push for autonomy.

Summed up in one picture…

* * *

Here’s Goldman’s take

Main points:

1. Finance Minister Jaresko, in a special government session called today, announced that Ukraine has reached agreement with the ad hoc creditor committee on a bond restructuring deal.

This deal includes a 20% nominal haircut, a coupon of 7.75% (up from 7.25% previously) and a maturity extension of 4 years for each bond.

It also includes GDP warrants that pay out over the period 2021-40 if growth exceeds 3%, subject to nominal GDP exceeding US$125.4bn (the IMF’s projection for 2019 GDP). Minister Jaresko argues that these deal parameters are consistent with the IMF’s three objectives for the debt operation.

2. While the 20% nominal haircut was reported in the press last week, in our view the coupon increase to 7.75% and the 4-year maturity extension are likely more favourable than market expectations for a lower coupon and longer extension.

3. In order for the restructuring to take place, bondholders will have to approve the exchange offer on a bond-by-bond basis with a sufficient majority and subject to a minimum quorum. In our view, given the attractiveness of the offer relative to market expectations, the risk of a holdout scenario is relatively low.

4. Based on our estimates, the deal parameters imply average bond prices across the curve of 57 cents at a 14% exit yield, 63 cents at a 12% exit yield and 70 cents at a 10% exit yield.

Our base case remains for a 14% exit yield, based on our estimated fair value as a function of Ukraine’s macro fundamentals and also consistent with past episodes of restructuring. These estimates assume zero value for the GDP warrants, likely a conservative assumption.

5. In addition, given that the same parameters apply to all bonds on the curve, this deal favours lower-coupon bonds over higher-coupon ones. The relatively shorter maturity extension than expected, in our view, favours the front end over the long end of the curve.

Based on our estimates, at a 14% exit yield, the premium for the shortest-maturity (2015) bond over the longer-maturity (2023) bond should stand at 12 points. At a 12% exit yield, it should be 10 points, and at a 10% exit yield, 5 points.

6. Russia has said that it will not participate in the bond exchange. Minister Jaresko has reiterated that Ukraine will not treat Russia differently from other creditors.

Thus, how Ukraine and the IMF (which likely views the Russian-owned bond as official debt) will address the issue of this bond maturing in December remains an open issue and should, ceteris paribus, require a higher exit yield.

7. While the terms of the debt restructuring will likely satisfy the IMF’s criteria, in our view, the question of the sustainability of Ukraine’s debt remains open.

As we have argued previously, this will likely hinge on the willingness and ability of the Ukrainian authorities to follow through on structural and governance reforms and on developments in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine.

Relative to the IMF’s forecasts, our macroeconomic outlook for Ukraine is considerably weaker in the medium term, with trend growth of around 2% during the structural adjustment and the Hryvnia weakening in our projections to UAH 30 vs. the USD.

In our view, under this scenario, questions of debt sustainability may well resurface in the coming years. Uncertainty about the outlook as well as the geopolitical conflict, in our view, is an additional reason why we argue for a higher exit yield of 14% than consensus market expectations (which we estimate stand at around 12%).

 

[Akim]

Forget about my VW Golf. Your chocolate seller is playing golf with your economy.
See this: http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/civil-war-in-ukraine.61895/page-770#post-1070669
Soon, it will be time to go back to Russia and beg.

You get a rating of "unsatisfactory". Prime responsible for the economy. You are my eyes constantly trying to cheat. In supermarkets foods to eat, petrol gas stations have, electricity in the house, tap water flows, there is a job, wages are paid regularly In September it will increase +300 grn. Pension paid regularly. Money migrant paid regularly. Dollar depreciates, benzin prices have fallen by 50 kopeks. Vegetables and fruits are cheaper. Meat slightly risen in price, cheese prices have fallen, cheaper milk, but kefir has risen in price.Electricity went up, but I put a dual circuit electric meter, and it now considers separately the "day-night" (night rate 2 times cheaper). The average comes out to 250 grn./months. Hot water is expensive, but I have a boiler of 75 litres for hot water and I don't pay at all.
I'm not the Minister of the economy - I don't have to worry about macro issues.

 

[pmaitra]

You get a rating of "unsatisfactory". Prime responsible for the economy. You are my eyes constantly trying to cheat. In supermarkets foods to eat, petrol gas stations have, electricity in the house, tap water flows, there is a job, wages are paid regularly In September it will increase +300 grn. Pension paid regularly. Money migrant paid regularly. Dollar depreciates, benzin prices have fallen by 50 kopeks. Vegetables and fruits are cheaper. Meat slightly risen in price, cheese prices have fallen, cheaper milk, but kefir has risen in price.Electricity went up, but I put a dual circuit electric meter, and it now considers separately the "day-night" (night rate 2 times cheaper). The average comes out to 250 grn./months. Hot water is expensive, but I have a boiler of 75 litres for hot water and I don't pay at all.
I'm not the Minister of the economy - I don't have to worry about macro issues.

So looks like Ukraine is doing great. So, relax and make merry. You have nothing to worry about, until the time comes to pay back the borrowed money.

 

[Akim]

So looks like Ukraine is doing great. So, relax and make merry. You have nothing to worry about, until the time comes to pay back the borrowed money.

Of course. Russian loan obtained from private foundations. :If the IMF acknowledges his debt to the state will have to pay.3 billion is a large sum?

 

[pmaitra]

Of course. Russian loan obtained from private foundations. :If the IMF acknowledges his debt to the state will have to pay.3 billion is a large sum?

$3 billion is nothing because Kiev regime won't pay it. It will simple borrow from IMF and give to Russia. That debt of $3 billion still won't go away. Then there is $4 billion due by year end.

Write down the numbers and add them up.

 

[Akim]

$3 billion is nothing because Kiev regime won't pay it. It will simple borrow from IMF and give to Russia. That debt of $3 billion still won't go away. Then there is $4 billion due by year end.

Write down the numbers and add them up.

You are a great economist to give a personal assessment? Some say "bad", others say "good". Live your life! The life of a common man.

 

[pmaitra]

You are a great economist to give a personal assessment? Some say "bad", others say "good". Live your life! The life of a common man.

Not me alone, but the news articles that I have posted. Even the western news articles are struggling to be optimistic about the Kiev regime.

Look, if you are confident that everything is fine, my comments or these articles that I have posted should not worry you.

 

[Akim]

Not me alone, but the news articles that I have posted. Even the western news articles are struggling to be optimistic about the Kiev regime.

Look, if you are confident that everything is fine, my comments or these articles that I have posted should not worry you.

I now personally have to do? Lining up for free soup? There's no DNR/LNR.
Why you talk about the economy of the country and ride on Golf?:blah:

 

[soldier of Putin]

There's no DNR/LNR.

There isn't? Gee. I guess the 2,600 soldiers must have been killed by ghosts then. BTW, Akim, do you happen to have a relative fighting in Donbas?

 

[Akim]

There isn't? Gee. I guess the 2,600 soldiers must have been killed by ghosts then. BTW, Akim, do you happen to have a relative fighting in Donbas?

You jammed? You must understand I'm not interested. I'm not interested to communicate with robots. @pmaitra - not a robot. It's just wrong thinking. However, his reasoning is much more diverse than yours.

 

[soldier of Putin]

You jammed? You must understand I'm not interested. I'm not interested to communicate with robots. @pmaitra - not a robot. It's just wrong thinking. However, his reasoning is much more diverse than yours.

It is disrespectful to the 2,600 families who lost their sons, husbands, fathers, nephews, cousins, uncles to say DNR / LNR do not exist. Had you lose your relative in Donbas, how would you feel if some guy comes up to you and says DNR / LNR do not exist, that your relative died for nothing.

 

[bhramos]

"New You" Ukrainian girls, threatening to "cut-virus", appeared on the Internet

 

[Akim]

It is disrespectful to the 2,600 families who lost their sons, husbands, fathers, nephews, cousins, uncles to say DNR / LNR do not exist. Had you lose your relative in Donbas, how would you feel if some guy comes up to you and says DNR / LNR do not exist, that your relative died for nothing.

How can you know? You didn't bury friends and fellow officers. Nobody lives in Donetsk? My father now lives in the occupied Donetsk. My home is located in Leninsky district of Donetsk city. You're not worthy to know my emotions!!!!

 

[soldier of Putin]

How can you know? You didn't bury friends and fellow officers. Nobody lives in Donetsk? My father now lives in the occupied Donetsk. My home is located in Leninsky district of Donetsk city. You're not worthy to know my emotions!!!!

You are in Donetsk? I thought you are in Odessa. Speaking of Odessa, big fire there today. Another oligarch battle. If you are in Donetsk you would realize Donetsk will never go back to Ukrainian rule. Even if Ukraine manages to take back Donetsk by force, Russia would take Donetsk back by force, using air power if necessary. And if you think you've seen Russian military in action, you ain't seen NOTHING yet.