Civil war in Ukraine

[sorcerer]

When you bring > 60% of your Army for military exercise surrounding a single country, as close as 30 km from the border, pushing not the only army but navy and air force as well, it is not a "peaceful exercise" anymore.

Russia still may not invade, it can all be a demonstration of power so that Ukraine backs off from cozying up to NATO, but the threat is definitely directed as well as intended.

The sad part is does Russia need to put out such a large show just to persuade UKRAINE to back off from NATO which is as russia say 9 hours drive to Kieve?
then it does not look good on Russia.

The game of bluff is at large here

 

[mist_consecutive]

Russian army is 1 M troops. Where did you get info about 600k troops brought for military exercise surrounding a single country?

Wikipedia (can be wrong, but then again I don't have information on my fingertips) says the Russian Army (Ground Forces) have 280k active troops.
Current Russian troop concentration near the Ukrainian border crosses 150k currently, which is around 53% of total Russian troops.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

Someone said it right, "All Wars are Banker's Wars",

Never heard a truer thing in my life. Every single catastrophe and devastation has a cartel of bankers behind it orchestrating it to supplement their finances.

 

[Flash12]

Yeah, but if there is an intention or plan to invade another country, usually some excuses or lies are concocted to justify that invasion. No one vehemently and repeatedly states that they are not going to invade, because otherwise if they do, they are immediately branded as liars and deceivers at the international stage. Invasions are always given some sort of color to make it seem justified and less objectionable.

There was no such thing in this case, right from Day One, Ruskies stated multiple times that they won't invade. Probably would hurt them in the future, and whether they would have, should have are all questions that arise afterwards.

Yes, and in Russia there would be some kind of propaganda about the need for this war. Plus, the population would somehow be prepared for this. On the contrary, everyone wondered why we need this war, about which so much is said in the West.

 

[mist_consecutive]

Yeah, but if there is an intention or plan to invade another country, usually some excuses or lies are concocted to justify that invasion. No one vehemently and repeatedly states that they are not going to invade, because otherwise if they do, they are immediately branded as liars and deceivers at the international stage. Invasions are always given some sort of color to make it seem justified and less objectionable.

There was no such thing in this case, right from Day One, Ruskies stated multiple times that they won't invade. Probably would hurt them in the future, and whether they would have, should have are all questions that arise afterwards.

That is for weak countries like India and Pakistan, who have to answer their bigger masters.

And not to say, Russia has ample narrative to justify this invasion (at least to its population and allies). Russia cannot tolerate Ukraine as a NATO member, and it has made it perfectly clear at world forums. Thus, Russia makes sure with the force that Ukraine absolutely does not join NATO.

Did Russia answer to anyone when they annexed Crimea ? Or did China answer to anyone why they are still camping on Ladakh ?

The sad part is does Russia need to put out such a large show just to persuade UKRAINE to back off from NATO which is as russia say 9 hours drive to Kieve?
then it does not look good on Russia.

The game of bluff is at large here

How will Russia persuade Ukraine by driving to Kiev ? You are talking about diplomacy ? That failed long ago, this is coercion by military force, basically saying back-off otherwise get crushed.

 

[Flash12]

Wikipedia (can be wrong, but then again I don't have information on my fingertips) says the Russian Army (Ground Forces) have 280k active troops.
Current Russian troop concentration near the Ukrainian border crosses 150k currently, which is around 53% of total Russian troops.

Sorry but wiki says

Russian Armed Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Active personnel	1,014,000[2] (ranked 5th)
Reserve personnel	2,000,000[2]

 

[sorcerer]

How will Russia persuade Ukraine by driving to Kiev ? You are talking about diplomacy ? That failed long ago, this is coercion by military force, basically saying back-off otherwise get crushed.

I am just saying..Russia said Ukraine is easy... they are also putting such a large concentration of troops for Ukraine.
If Russia backs off, thats not going to look good on them, especially the image of Владимир Путин and Xinnie the Pooh

 

[mist_consecutive]

Sorry but wiki says

Russian Armed Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Active personnel	1,014,000[2] (ranked 5th)
Reserve personnel	2,000,000[2]

Russian Armed Forces = Army + Navy + Aerospace Force + Airborne Force + Stategic Missile Force + Special Operation Force

Russian Ground Forces = Army

I am talking about your Army, here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Ground_Forces

 

[sorcerer]

The Untold Story of the Ukraine Crisis


Last February, days after the Inauguration of President Joe Biden, America’s allies in Kyiv decided to get tough on Medvedchuk. The Ukrainian government started by taking his TV channels off the air, depriving Russia of its propaganda outlets in the country. The U.S. embassy in Kyiv applauded the move. About two weeks later, on Feb. 19, 2021, Ukraine announced that it had seized the assets of Medvedchuk’s family. Among the most important, it said, was a pipeline that brings Russian oil to Europe, enriching Medvedchuk and his family—including Putin’s goddaughter, Daria—and helping to bankroll Medvedchuk’s political party.

The Untold Story of the Ukraine Crisis

The long relationship between Vladimir Putin and Ukraine's Viktor Medvedchuk has revived the tensions in the region

time.com

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

That is for weak countries like India and Pakistan, who have to answer their bigger masters.

And not to say, Russia has ample narrative to justify this invasion (at least to its population and allies). Russia cannot tolerate Ukraine as a NATO member, and it has made it perfectly clear at world forums. Thus, Russia makes sure with the force that Ukraine absolutely does not join NATO.

Did Russia answer to anyone when they annexed Crimea ? Or did China answer to anyone why they are still camping on Ladakh ?

Russia doesn't have to use force on the point of Ukraine's NATO membership, Ukraine cannot join NATO anyway. NATO itself states that a country with existential ongoing disputes about territory amongst other things cannot be a member of NATO. Moreover, consent for membership has to be unanimous, and there is no way every single member of NATO would consent to Ukraine's membership.

As far as Crimea is concerned, Russia has always denied the annexation trope. They have always pointed to the fact that it was legal, that a referendum was held in which an overwhelming majority opted to secede and join Russia, and they have always maintained that it was done after the US-backed coup in Ukraine that put Neo-Nazis in power who immediately started passing threats against the local Russian populace.

Russia has never made any blatant or brazen statements saying the secession of Crimea was illegal or that they forcibly occupied that territory. They have always provided an explanation for their actions.

 

[mist_consecutive]

I am just saying..Russia said Ukraine is easy... they are also putting such a large concentration of troops for Ukraine.
If Russia backs off, thats not going to look good on them, especially the image of Владимир Путин and Xinnie the Pooh

Ukraine is anything but easy, we will see if Russia actually invades

For a 100% win guarantee, you need a numerical superiority of 5 : 1, for a high probability of win if you have better technology, 3 : 1 or even 2.5 : 1 might work, anything less than that is clutching on straws.

Russia doesn't have to use force on the point of Ukraine's NATO membership, Ukraine cannot join NATO anyway. NATO itself states that a country with existential ongoing disputes about territory amongst other things cannot be a member of NATO. Moreover, consent for membership has to be unanimous, and there is no way every single member of NATO would consent to Ukraine's membership.

As far as Crimea is concerned, Russia has always denied the annexation trope. They have always pointed to the fact that it was legal, that a referendum was held in which an overwhelming majority opted to secede and join Russia, and they have always maintained that it was done after the US-backed coup in Ukraine that put Neo-Nazis in power who immediately started passing threats against the local Russian populace.

Russia has never made any blatant or brazen statements saying the secession of Crimea was illegal or that they forcibly occupied that territory. They have always provided an explanation for their actions.

Rules and regulations can be amended at any time if the majority agrees. Even if Ukraine does not become part of NATO, it can still become a NATO client state like Japan, SoKo or Saudi Arabia, citing protection from Russian aggression.

And of course, the annexing party (Russia) will definitely justify it as legal Not saying it was illegal, but there was a lot of grey area, like Kashmir for us.

 

[mist_consecutive]

Sorry but wiki says

Russian Armed Forces - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Active personnel	1,014,000[2] (ranked 5th)
Reserve personnel	2,000,000[2]

Add more numbers to the already deployed 150k

NATO weighs new combat units for central, SE Europe

NATO told its military commanders on Wednesday to draw up plans for new combat units in central and southeastern Europe, as it accused Russia of sending more troops to areas near Ukraine instead of withdrawing its forces.

www.reuters.com

 

[Hari Sud]

All this stupidity of Putin & his relatives and others is nonsense. It is mostly media war spun and cooked in Washington. It is the NATO extreme desire to reach the Russian border and Russian desire to prevent it. In the process a right wing man bribed by Washington in Ukraine is in the middle. If NATO refrains then the fight is over.

In this altercation, far away US has nothing to loose. All losses are to be borne by Europe and in particular Ukraine and Germany. US is only trying to salvage its prestige after its disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan and Europe will pay the price.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

Rules and regulations can be amended at any time if the majority agrees. Even if Ukraine does not become part of NATO, it can still become a NATO client state like Japan, SoKo or Saudi Arabia, citing protection from Russian aggression.

That's a big can, and I don't see why Russia would actually decide to invade another country in anticipation of some future hypothetical event when they already have so many internal problems to deal with.

And of course, the annexing party (Russia) will definitely justify it as legal Not saying it was illegal, but there was a lot of grey area, like Kashmir for us.

True true, but what I am saying is, it's not that they have not provided any answers or explanation for their actions. They do not have near as much clout to commit such a major act as invading another country and not have to answer for it at the world stage.

 

[Flash12]

Current Russian troop concentration near the Ukrainian border crosses 150k currently

Russian Armed Forces = Army + Navy + Aerospace Force + Airborne Force + Stategic Missile Force + Special Operation Force
Russian Ground Forces = Army
I am talking about your Army, here - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Ground_Forces

I will not even ask for proof that 150k Russian troops are involved in the exercises. Because this number was simply "said by American intelligence." Moreover, this number changed many times depending on the fantasies of the one who reported 90k and 120k and 150k. Could have said more.
And why do we need to take into account only ground forces? After all, modern warfare is the last thing waged by ground forces. First of all, aviation, naval forces and missile forces are used. Not to mention the railway troops and supply troops. That is, for the war it is necessary to take into account just the total number of troops.

For a 100% win guarantee, you need a numerical superiority of 5 : 1, for a high probability of win if you have better technology, 3 : 1 or even 2.5 : 1 might work, anything less than that is clutching on straws.

Given that Ukraine has 250k troops and 1 million in reserve, shouldn't it be necessary to think that 150k troops are just not enough for a successful war with Ukraine?

 

[bhramos]

 

[Jimih]

Joe Biden = Hunter Biden = Burisma = Ukraine

 

[mokoman]

if Russia wasnt planning on invading Ukraine , what was Macron doing in Russia talking to Putin for several hours. obviously it wasnt just West propaganda.

Putin himself said Macron was torturing him.

Then there is that wild speech Putin gave where he talked about NATO superiority , Nukes and other crap.

u guys are embarrassing yourself falling for this silly spin

Russians obviously drew a line , went back because they maybe could not invade or Western leaders gave them some concessions.

 

[bhramos]

 

[Flash12]

if Russia wasnt planning on invading Ukraine , what was Macron doing in Russia talking to Putin for several hours. obviously it wasnt just West propaganda.

Putin himself said Macron was torturing him.

Then there is that wild speech Putin gave where he talked about NATO superiority , Nukes and other crap.

u guys are embarrassing yourself falling for this silly spin

Russians obviously drew a line , went back because they maybe could not invade or Western leaders gave them some concessions.

I already wrote that Macron will have elections soon, so he could just come for PR. Plus, Merkel left and Macron could try to seize leadership in Europe from Germany. The conversation could go on a broad agenda: from the implementation of the Minsk agreements by Ukraine to a new security configuration in Europe.