China Economy: News & Discussion

[amoy]

don't know what your definition of middle class is. would u bother to explain?

a question from 'under a bridge'

 

[Ray]

Middle class, to my mind, is the subsistence level of people, between the filthy rich and the abject poor!

 

[Aruni]

With regards to the property bubble, someone on this thread said that just because the vacancy rate in Mumbai is not high (i.e. demand is outstripping supply), it is not a problem! I think there is some misunderstanding of how bubbles take place. You have demand outstripping supply, suppliers respond by putting more and more on the market and they invest heavily in new developments, anticipating ever more increasing demand. Just look around the skyline of any major India city- looks like a bubble to me.

When this demand fails to keep up with the inevitable glut, the bubble bursts. In China the government has been trying to tighten credit to soften the landing, but the vacancy rates in cities like Shanghai suggest that supply has already overtaken demand in some areas. I don't think this will have wide-ranging implications for China given that it has so many artificial demand boosters (e.g. government banks pumping money into state owned enterprises). In India, I have a feeling that the landing will be much harder, given that the government lacks the resources to inject a major stimulus in a different sector.

In terms of the general prosperity point, I think we often like to stick our heads in the sand. China's GDP is at least 2.5 times the size of India's and growing at a faster rate. The Chinese on average are definitely more prosperous than the Indians. Anecdotal comments about prosperity in Indian slums vis-a-vis the plight of migrant workers in China cannot shy away from this fact. Yes, China is a more unequal society (going by the gini coefficient) than India, but so is the United Kingdom. Which is more prosperous?

Of course, I believe that it is preferable to live in India given our democratic credentials. But that is a debate for a different thread, not this one. Let's not get into the CCP uprooting hapless peasants, as our government has often been accused of doing the same (e.g. Orissa, West Bengal, etc.).

 

[Daredevil]

In China the problem is not that of oversupply of apartments but the exorbitant prices that these vacant apartments demand. As long as this artificially driven price bubble doesn't break and make the apartments more affordable to the average Chinese they will remain vacant.

 

[keshtopatel]

don't know what your definition of middle class is. would u bother to explain?

a question from 'under a bridge'

Group of people who are sandwiched between those who can afford almost anything (very few though) and those who can not!

 

[tony4562]

The "slum inhabitants" in India have had air conditioners, refrigerators, gas stoves and in some cases even computers long before modern Chinese "blue collared" workers could even afford them.

Looking at some of the "housing" for lower middle-class workers in Chinese cities leaves me with little doubt that they are any different from the slums in India. Both have cramped living conditions, shared domiciles, many have even shared washrooms. Granted Indian slums may be a lot filthier, but that is the price we pay for unplanned cities- or for planning our cities less early than you did.

In China, when people go "back to the countryside", as millions did because of the tens of thousands of factories that closed in Guangdong during the recession, they face subsistence farming conditions. Perhaps you should open your eyes to that fact and visit the countryside.

By last count, of the UN, 59.1 million of the 132 million people de-slummed in Asia in the last decade alone were from India. We started liberalization and economic growth a decade-n-a-half after you did. Don't cut it when you don't know it.

Air-conditioning in slums in india? Are you kidding me.

take a look here mumbai slum' - Google Search. I don't see many air-conditioners there, these guys don't even look like to have electricity.

 

[Armand2REP]

don't know what your definition of middle class is. would u bother to explain?

a question from 'under a bridge'

I believe the urban definition is $600 a month. That is how much the guy living under the bridge made.

 

[tony4562]

Current hausing price:

shanghai, hangzhou, beijing 20000
ningbo shenzhen 15000
suzhou nanjing tianjing 10000

most other cities including inland giants like chongqing well below that. in lots of cities you can buy an apratment at less than 5000 a square meter. In the country side, which was what i was talking about, you can certainly build a fairly big house for less than 100000.

 

[tony4562]

I am from a booming town near shanghai, the city has attracted millions of migrant workers in recent years. Here is a link to some of the apartment blocks migrant workers tend to congregate 新元新村二手房出售,两室一厅一卫,新元新村二朝南满五年精装修好房低价急售_苏州二手房_搜房网 (the upper 4-5 pictures). These tend to be apartments built in the 80's and now vacated by city dwellers who bought new modern housing else where. usually 4-6 people would share an apartment with 2-3 bedrooms for about 500-800 RMB in rent in total. If they work on an assembly line for a big company, they tend to live in provided dorms like this: Ա - Ѿҵ, often for free.

 

[Armand2REP]

Average prices in Chongqing broke 6000RMB in Q2 with a 17.9% increase from Q1. Compare that with 800RMB in 2005. Better buy it while the getting is good. The property bubble has now shifted from the coast to inland.

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...b-0CIo&sig=AHIEtbQFGGL3bQy2ySBBe-mNT4izbeyZBA

 

[Rage]

Air-conditioning in slums in india? Are you kidding me.

take a look here mumbai slum' - Google Search. I don't see many air-conditioners there, these guys don't even look like to have electricity.

Son, you're showing me pictures from the '90s. Go figure.

How about I show you pictures of Shanghai slums from the '90s? Or how about I show you pictures of Shanghai slums from 2008.

And air-conditiong? You're damn right.


Mumbai's five-star slums

Wise men tell us not to judge a book by its cover. A wise Mumbaikar will tell you how not to judge a home by its façade. For, hidden behind an ordinary door or decrepit walls in the many slum pockets are homes which could give their ostentatious counterparts a run for their money, so to speak.

Cleverly utilised spaces dressed up with POP ceilings, marble floors and loaded with all modern amenities, these make for Mumbai's best kept secrets.

DHARAVI
Habib Nagar
MOHD ZUBAIR SHAIKH

The Shaikhs from Dharavi are proud owners of a ground plus-two structure in the thick of the world's most famous slum. "We have one of the best houses in our chawl," beams Mohd Zubair Shaikh. The neatly done up house with marble flooring, false ceiling with POP and furniture has been designed by Junaid, his younger brother, who is an interior designer. The Shaikhs do not have a television, "But that's by choice," points out Zubair, "All the members would simply remain glued to the TV and everything else would go for a toss. This helps the children concentrate better on their studies as well."

The 11-member Shaikh family comprises five brothers , of which three live here with their fmailies and two work abroad. "All of us chipped in to make this beautiful place" , Zubair says. He pauses to reflect on his days of struggle as a child. "We did not have any place to sleep. I used to wait desperately for the workshops to empty out so that I could sleep there. But the wait, at times, was endless," says Zubair, getting emotional . "Every day all five of us would swear that some day we will make a 'badhiya ghar' where we can stay peacefully. Now we have five rooms, small but cosy. Ab sukun se so sakte hai."

GHATKOPAR
Chirag Nagar
SHANKAR KHATRI

The single-storied Khatri house in labyrinthine Parsi Wadi near Chirag Nagar, Ghatkopar, is all about creature comforts. The house has an LCD TV, computer, tall refrigerator, split air-conditioning system and a modular kitchen. Shankar Khatri, a BEST employee, was born and brought up in this house, which not long ago was like any other slum house.

"Initially we bought a 2BHK flat in Thane. But we put it on rent when we realised no other place would make us feel as much at home as this house (Parsi Wadi)," confesses Shankar Khatri, who lives in the 300 sq foot house with his wife Annu and son Prithvi. There is a well-organised living room, bedroom and a kitchen and the floor is of fine quality marble.

Says Khatri, "All of us here make it a point to keep the neighbourhood clean. I grew up in this locality and while this may seem like a slum pocket to most people, this is heaven for me."

The Arlekars have been here for three generations. "We are not interested in re-development as the builders will offer us only 269 sq ft in the new accommodation. I have spent lakhs creating this ground plus-one structure, which gives me a space of almost 650 sq ft. This house is no less than a plush flat," Arlekar adds. The house is loaded with all the luxury must-haves including air-conditioner , LCD TV, and basic home appliances like refrigerator and a washing machine. Water supply is abundant, and the rent only Rs 26 per month. And since it is a slum area, electricity charges are negligible too. But most importantly, says Arlekar, "We have been living here since ages - my parents, brothers and sister. I have created space for all of us. I have my bedroom and kitchen on the mezzanine floor and the living room is a spacious 250 sq ft. We cannot live in a cramped house anymore."

WORLI
Gopal Nagar -1
DIGAMBER ARLEKAR

Dharamnath Pant's house in the heart of Ganesh Nagar, Powai, looks rather ordinary. But once in, you realise, not only is it a sprawling property, it also has almost everything that a well-appointed apartment could boast of.

The 200-square feet living room has Austrian marble flooring and a tastefully done up false ceiling to conceal the asbestos sheet above. A reclining chair, sofa set, a huge book shelf filled with an entire collection of encyclopaedia, and an air-conditioner make the living room look elegant and grand. The house has a separate dining room and a modular kitchen. The bedroom too is air-conditioned .

"I bought this house over a decade ago and it was in shambles then. Back then I could only afford a place in ruins and in a slum pocket. Gradually I saved up money and made it what it is today," says Pant, who has no intention of ever moving out. Pant reasons he may not have an upscale address, but he sure has a conformable home. He says, "Even though I can afford to buy a flat now, I wouldn't want to move out because people here are very warm."


Mumbai's five-star slums - The Times of India

----

This is Dharavi-2010:

Mumbai's fivestar slums - Bangalore Mirror,Bangalore Mirror

----

Here's how much this 'slum' generates in annual revenue every year:

Bombay's billion dollar slum

Asia's Largest Slum Is An Economic Powerhouse

Posted by: Michael Dudley


Dharavi, a slum in Mumbai, India, may appear at first to be a squalid concentration of misery. It is also the prosperous home of some 5,000 single-room factories and tens of thousands of entrepreneurs.

"Dharavi...may be one of the world's bigger slums, but it is arguably its most prosperous, a thriving and productive business centre propelled by tens of thousands of micro-entrepreneurs. Estimates vary considerably, but the collective economic output of Dharavi is as impressive as it is improbable: at least $800-million a year, and perhaps well over $1-billion.

"This is the unspoken side of the Indian economy, the impoverished counterpoint to the gleaming call centres in Bangalore and Hyderabad that have transfixed Western investors and come to symbolize the country's gradual emergence as a potential global power. It is also a rebuke to the typical prejudices that dog slum-dwellers: that they somehow inhabit a world of despair, that they have no other community than that of shared poverty and frustration. These people may be lacking, but they are also industrious and enterprising -- and, for the most part, fiercely attached to the slum."

Asia's Largest Slum Is An Economic Powerhouse | Planetizen

Originally published in: The Globe and Mail, October 3, 2004


This was as of 2004.

----

Let's not even get into how little you know about the Indian economy.

 

[tony4562]

> Son, you're showing me pictures from the '90s. Go figure.

you showed me a show-case slum, perhaps less than 1% of the slums is like that.

Are you telling me you go to google and search for 'mumbai slum', all you got are pictures taken from the 90's? This just shows are disconnected you indian elites are from the ground reality.

 

[tony4562]

The word slum is so coined with indian cities that when one tries to image-search for 'shanghai slum' he gets pictures of slums in india instead.

Are there bad housing in shanghai? sure, but none like in india.

 

[Rage]

With regards to the property bubble, someone on this thread said that just because the vacancy rate in Mumbai is not high (i.e. demand is outstripping supply), it is not a problem! I think there is some misunderstanding of how bubbles take place. You have demand outstripping supply, suppliers respond by putting more and more on the market and they invest heavily in new developments, anticipating ever more increasing demand. Just look around the skyline of any major India city- looks like a bubble to me.

When this demand fails to keep up with the inevitable glut, the bubble bursts. In China the government has been trying to tighten credit to soften the landing, but the vacancy rates in cities like Shanghai suggest that supply has already overtaken demand in some areas. I don't think this will have wide-ranging implications for China given that it has so many artificial demand boosters (e.g. government banks pumping money into state owned enterprises). In India, I have a feeling that the landing will be much harder, given that the government lacks the resources to inject a major stimulus in a different sector.

In terms of the general prosperity point, I think we often like to stick our heads in the sand. China's GDP is at least 2.5 times the size of India's and growing at a faster rate. The Chinese on average are definitely more prosperous than the Indians. Anecdotal comments about prosperity in Indian slums vis-a-vis the plight of migrant workers in China cannot shy away from this fact. Yes, China is a more unequal society (going by the gini coefficient) than India, but so is the United Kingdom. Which is more prosperous?

Of course, I believe that it is preferable to live in India given our democratic credentials. But that is a debate for a different thread, not this one. Let's not get into the CCP uprooting hapless peasants, as our government has often been accused of doing the same (e.g. Orissa, West Bengal, etc.).

There is nothing 'analogous' about the evidence at all. I've lived 3 years of my life in a slum. If anyone can tell you what slum life is in Indian cities, it is me.

Ofcourse, I am referring specifically here to urban slums. Those dense, urban agglomerations where, despite people being crowded into tiny places, are hubs of notorious prosperity and entrepreneurship. Your car driver, your saloon owner, your vegetable vendor, your house maid, your Shiv Sena or RSS shakha worker, your tiffin delivery workers are all from these.

There is now a growing body of research to suggest that India's slums represent a much more complex and vast, political and material, social and structural metric of relationships that previously thought. This for example:
India's Slums Represent Complex Political and Social Issues

Our cities' largest slums are hubs of entrepreneurship and crime, generating vast amounts of wealth that are untold and that we can often only imagine.

And they often look out for themselves:
BBC News - Mumbai tiffin carriers become multi-skilled

 

[Rage]

> Son, you're showing me pictures from the '90s. Go figure.

you showed me a show-case slum, perhaps less than 1% of the slums is like that.

Are you telling me you go to google and search for 'mumbai slum', all you got are pictures taken from the 90's? This just shows are disconnected you indian elites are from the ground reality.

You're an idiot, you 'disconnected' fool. I am from Mumbai. Do you mean to tell me, that YOU a sinopvke, know more about my city than me?

This 'showcase' slum you're talking about is Dharavi: India's most notorious and filthy slum. No other slum in the city is like it, NO other.

Now, cut the crap with your trolling, unless you want a one way ticket to hell- your local boarded-up Shanghai shitt@wn.

The word slum is so coined with indian cities that when one tries to image-search for 'shanghai slum' he gets pictures of slums in india instead.


Are there bad housing in shanghai? sure, but none like in india.

Maybe, you ain't searchin' hard enough.

Here is the shit you get with 'China slums' in Google: http://www.google.ca/images?q=China...&source=og&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wi&biw=1440&bih=693

 

[nitesh]

I thought the thread is about Chinese economy, can we get back to topic please

 

[tony4562]

Average prices in Chongqing broke 6000RMB in Q2 with a 17.9% increase from Q1. Compare that with 800RMB in 2005. Better buy it while the getting is good. The property bubble has now shifted from the coast to inland.

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Chongqing is a poor city (known for exporting migrant labour) but at same time it is a big one and one that has received a lot of government money, maybe over 100 billion dollars in the past 10 yrs. So 6000/m2 is about the avg price of housing in china. And i think this is a reasonable price.

 

[tony4562]

[mod] use the report post feature, don't rant like this[/mod]

 

[Rahul92]

I think India should strategically ban Chinese goods by showing the finger on its quality,malicious nature as US does with this we can indirectly effect its growth as India is the biggest importer of Chinese goods :emot112:

 

[Armand2REP]

Chongqing is a poor city (known for exporting migrant labour) but at same time it is a big one and one that has received a lot of government money, maybe over 100 billion dollars in the past 10 yrs. So 6000/m2 is about the avg price of housing in china. And i think this is a reasonable price.

Average price for coastal cities is 15,000 which is where most people live. Taking 6000 as an average inland price and you still end up over 10000. Also note the drastic jump in prices in Chongqing and the rest of inland China. 17.9% jump in one quarter, it will not be long until it is as expensive as the coast.