China Economy: News & Discussion

[Arjun Mk1A]

Worrying signs for global economy.

 

[Varzone]

 

[karn]

They are looking at a Japan style slowdown.
Now they have to sit and digest all the bad loans from their ghost cities. They have pushed things to the limit where the whole system of getting endless loans from govt financial institutions based on political favour and pressure has reached the point that these banks now don't have hard cash left to pay their depositors.
Regardless of the implementation we should thank Tai and Modi govt for cleaning up bad loans and not allowing them to grow .. What China is facing is the Nirav modi / PNB situation but ... everywhere across several banks and companies.

 

[Concard]

They are looking at a Japan style slowdown.
Now they have to sit and digest all the bad loans from their ghost cities. They have pushed things to the limit where the whole system of getting endless loans from govt financial institutions based on political favour and pressure has reached the point that these banks now don't have hard cash left to pay their depositors.
Regardless of the implementation we should thank Tai and Modi govt for cleaning up bad loans and not allowing them to grow .. What China is facing is the Nirav modi / PNB situation but ... everywhere across several banks and companies.

Isn't that the reason they came up with BRI initiative? BRI is a life line for Chinese infrastructure companies. Now that there isn't much to build in China they want to build in other countries keeping the infrastructure machine going and making sure their state owned enterprises have a positive cash flow.

 

[karn]

Isn't that the reason they came up with BRI initiative? BRI is a life line for Chinese infrastructure companies. Now that there isn't much to build in China they want to build in other countries keeping the infrastructure machine going and making sure their state owned enterprises have a positive cash flow.

ROI on BRI is very low ... It has gone beyond that .. now because of state control of banks and loans to the same infrastructure companies their entire banking system is exposed .. A consequence of this is less money for productive investments.

 

[indus]

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[Hari Sud]

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‘Chinese overbuilt just to get a head start on its GDP. They like big numbers and building with $9 trillion cash gave them big numbers. Yes, the Chinese cities which we see in pictures in fact were built to show off. About 80% of housing and more than 40% of commercial real estate is empty.….. no occupiers. Housing is only one sector; trains and roads is another sector which building them added to their GDP. They overbuilt these. Now bullet trains are running empty to nowhere. Most complicated road network exists but it is hardly used. There are many other sectors like that where building and building big/more added to their larger GDP. As I said earlier they love big numbers of GDP; they wish that by hook or by crook the number one spot in the GDP. In fact they reached their target or close to that unmindful of empty real estate or bullet trains to nowhere. Now comes the big issue ……. All that money used to building that ($9 Trillion) has to be paid back. The bonds on which much of China was built is coming due. Usually elsewhere the building spree yields returns, but not in China. Empty trains or housing or commercial real estate is giving no return to pay off the loans.

Hence big financial crisis is just about to unleash in China. It is a bigger than all the financial crisis put together which the world has suffered in last 70 years. May it be the South American financial crisis (Mexico, Brazil & Argentina) of late seventies, or Asian Tigers crisis of late nineties or America’s big financial crisis of 2008.

This Chinese financial crisis is so big that no IMF or World Bank will be in a position to rescue it. All the Chinese cash reserves in the west close to $3-4 Trillion dollars will be wiped out in a Jiffy, then some more.

I hope Chinese suffer that catastrophe sooner than later. That is only way to wipe out overinflated Chinese ego and their belligerence. In addition there should be a mechanism to deflate the GDP numbers if these are worthless construction.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

‘Chinese overbuilt just to get a head start on its GDP. They like big numbers and building with $9 trillion cash gave them big numbers. Yes, the Chinese cities which we see in pictures in fact were built to show off. About 80% of housing and more than 40% of commercial real estate is empty.….. no occupiers. Housing is only one sector; trains and roads is another sector which building them added to their GDP. They overbuilt these. Now bullet trains are running empty to nowhere. Most complicated road network exists but it is hardly used. There are many other sectors like that where building and building big/more added to their larger GDP. As I said earlier they love big numbers of GDP; they wish that by hook or by crook the number one spot in the GDP. In fact they reached their target or close to that unmindful of empty real estate or bullet trains to nowhere. Now comes the big issue ……. All that money used to building that ($9 Trillion) has to be paid back. The bonds on which much of China was built is coming due. Usually elsewhere the building spree yields returns, but not in China. Empty trains or housing or commercial real estate is giving no return to pay off the loans.

Hence big financial crisis is just about to unleash in China. It is a bigger than all the financial crisis put together which the world has suffered in last 70 years. May it be the South American financial crisis (Mexico, Brazil & Argentina) of late seventies, or Asian Tigers crisis of late nineties or America’s big financial crisis of 2008.

This Chinese financial crisis is so big that no IMF or World Bank will be in a position to rescue it. All the Chinese cash reserves in the west close to $3-4 Trillion dollars will be wiped out in a Jiffy, then some more.

I hope Chinese suffer that catastrophe sooner than later. That is only way to wipe out overinflated Chinese ego and their belligerence. In addition there should be a mechanism to deflate the GDP numbers if these are worthless construction.

Great post! People in India should start shorting Chinese companies with their entire savings. Many Westerners did that after Gordon Chang's "The Coming Collapse of China" came out in 2001

 

[another_armchair]

Great post! People in India should start shorting Chinese companies with their entire savings. Many Westerners did that after Gordon Chang's "The Coming Collapse of China" came out in 2001

FPI's were merely booking profits but Chinese govt had to halt short selling and shut the markets. They never really recovered from that pump and dump event wiping out lifetime savings of thousands of older Chinese citizens who were ignorant about the market risks.

Bah.. these 50 centers..

Shanghai Composite Chart - Investing.com India

This page contains a real-time chart of the Shanghai Composite.

in.investing.com

 

[ym888]

‘Chinese overbuilt just to get a head start on its GDP. They like big numbers and building with $9 trillion cash gave them big numbers. Yes, the Chinese cities which we see in pictures in fact were built to show off. About 80% of housing and more than 40% of commercial real estate is empty.….. no occupiers. Housing is only one sector; trains and roads is another sector which building them added to their GDP. They overbuilt these. Now bullet trains are running empty to nowhere. Most complicated road network exists but it is hardly used. There are many other sectors like that where building and building big/more added to their larger GDP. As I said earlier they love big numbers of GDP; they wish that by hook or by crook the number one spot in the GDP. In fact they reached their target or close to that unmindful of empty real estate or bullet trains to nowhere. Now comes the big issue ……. All that money used to building that ($9 Trillion) has to be paid back. The bonds on which much of China was built is coming due. Usually elsewhere the building spree yields returns, but not in China. Empty trains or housing or commercial real estate is giving no return to pay off the loans.

Hence big financial crisis is just about to unleash in China. It is a bigger than all the financial crisis put together which the world has suffered in last 70 years. May it be the South American financial crisis (Mexico, Brazil & Argentina) of late seventies, or Asian Tigers crisis of late nineties or America’s big financial crisis of 2008.

This Chinese financial crisis is so big that no IMF or World Bank will be in a position to rescue it. All the Chinese cash reserves in the west close to $3-4 Trillion dollars will be wiped out in a Jiffy, then some more.

I hope Chinese suffer that catastrophe sooner than later. That is only way to wipe out overinflated Chinese ego and their belligerence. In addition there should be a mechanism to deflate the GDP numbers if these are worthless construction.

China's GDP is 5 times that of India



If India hopes to catch up with China,



Indian workers work five times harder than Chinese workers



And Indian government is 5 times better than Chinese government



If you can't



Expect China's GDP to fall to India's level in no time.



Have a sweet dream

 

[rockdog]

Great post! People in India should start shorting Chinese companies with their entire savings. Many Westerners did that after Gordon Chang's "The Coming Collapse of China" came out in 2001

Of couse. China is keeping on collapsing for 2 decades ...

Even in this forum, some Indian members predicted it 10 yrs ago, i hope them bet a lots of money on stock market, they must be very rich and already leave the forum and enjoy the rich life now.

 

[Varzone]

Of couse. China is keeping on collapsing for 2 decades ...

Even in this forum, some Indian members predicted it 10 yrs ago, i hope them bet a lots of money on stock market, they must be very rich and already leave the forum and enjoy the rich life now.

I don't know about those people but we are shorting and we are making money right now in Chinese market as IG China is much more expensive than IG US.

 

[karn]

Great post! People in India should start shorting Chinese companies with their entire savings. Many Westerners did that after Gordon Chang's "The Coming Collapse of China" came out in 2001

Lol we are not stupid like Chinese people to put their entire life savings in one thing .....
And why mock Gordon Chang now ? Just when he is being proven right ..

 

[Concard]

Lol we are not stupid like Chinese people to put their entire life savings in one thing .....
And why mock Gordon Chang now ? Just when he is being proven right ..

Real estate is the only safe form of investment for Chinese. You put your life savings in the bank and what if one day that money disappears like it is happening right now in Henan province. An authoritarian government controlling banks cannot be trusted with your life savings. It's too risky and basically you are losing money by having money in the bank since they pay peanuts as interest.

Now you might say what about stock market? Chinese stock market is riddled with insider trading. Sure insider trading exists in every country which has a stock market. But it looks like Chinese stock market seems to be full of it. This is explained in a research paper how some Chinese executives sell their stock at the right time when they know the stock is going to plummet. Add to that the stock market bubble which popped in 2015 is not a experience anyone want to go through again.

Chinese Executives Sell at the Right Time, Avoiding Billions in Losses

Insiders at companies based in China but listed on a U.S. exchange avoided at least $10 billion in losses on trades made between 2016 and mid-2021 by selling stock ahead of significant price declines, researchers found.

www.wsj.com

In China, Big Investors Have Brilliant Timing ― Or Do They Know Someone? - UCLA Anderson Review

A scan of a million brokerage accounts finds the wealthy trade ahead of market-moving news

anderson-review.ucla.edu

The real estate bubble they have created is going to be painful restructuring if and all they ever plan on doing which I don't think they really will. Too much of wealth is locked up in real estate. And for Chinese getting married means having a home to start a family. If Chinese spend more money on buying a home and then they are less likely to spend money on other things until they pay off their mortgage. This decade is going to be very interesting to see how some economies fair.

 

[another_armchair]

Evergrande Auditor - Hmmm.. so you have accumulated a whopping USD 300 billion debt.

Accountant - But that's only on the liabilities side. We do have assets.

Auditor - Show me.

Accountant - Ummm... we lost the ledgers in last years floods. We have no idea who we owe money anymore.. hence the delay in repayments.

Auditor - Super.

 

[rockdog]

Real estate is the only safe form of investment for Chinese. You put your life savings in the bank and what if one day that money disappears like it is happening right now in Henan province. An authoritarian government controlling banks cannot be trusted with your life savings. It's too risky and basically you are losing money by having money in the bank since they pay peanuts as interest.

Now you might say what about stock market? Chinese stock market is riddled with insider trading. Sure insider trading exists in every country which has a stock market. But it looks like Chinese stock market seems to be full of it. This is explained in a research paper how some Chinese executives sell their stock at the right time when they know the stock is going to plummet. Add to that the stock market bubble which popped in 2015 is not a experience anyone want to go through again.

Chinese Executives Sell at the Right Time, Avoiding Billions in Losses

Insiders at companies based in China but listed on a U.S. exchange avoided at least $10 billion in losses on trades made between 2016 and mid-2021 by selling stock ahead of significant price declines, researchers found.

www.wsj.com

In China, Big Investors Have Brilliant Timing ― Or Do They Know Someone? - UCLA Anderson Review

A scan of a million brokerage accounts finds the wealthy trade ahead of market-moving news

anderson-review.ucla.edu

The real estate bubble they have created is going to be painful restructuring if and all they ever plan on doing which I don't think they really will. Too much of wealth is locked up in real estate. And for Chinese getting married means having a home to start a family. If Chinese spend more money on buying a home and then they are less likely to spend money on other things until they pay off their mortgage. This decade is going to be very interesting to see how some economies fair.

‘Chinese overbuilt just to get a head start on its GDP. They like big numbers and building with $9 trillion cash gave them big numbers. Yes, the Chinese cities which we see in pictures in fact were built to show off. About 80% of housing and more than 40% of commercial real estate is empty.….. no occupiers. Housing is only one sector; trains and roads is another sector which building them added to their GDP. They overbuilt these. Now bullet trains are running empty to nowhere. Most complicated road network exists but it is hardly used. There are many other sectors like that where building and building big/more added to their larger GDP. As I said earlier they love big numbers of GDP; they wish that by hook or by crook the number one spot in the GDP. In fact they reached their target or close to that unmindful of empty real estate or bullet trains to nowhere. Now comes the big issue ……. All that money used to building that ($9 Trillion) has to be paid back. The bonds on which much of China was built is coming due. Usually elsewhere the building spree yields returns, but not in China. Empty trains or housing or commercial real estate is giving no return to pay off the loans.

Hence big financial crisis is just about to unleash in China. It is a bigger than all the financial crisis put together which the world has suffered in last 70 years. May it be the South American financial crisis (Mexico, Brazil & Argentina) of late seventies, or Asian Tigers crisis of late nineties or America’s big financial crisis of 2008.

This Chinese financial crisis is so big that no IMF or World Bank will be in a position to rescue it. All the Chinese cash reserves in the west close to $3-4 Trillion dollars will be wiped out in a Jiffy, then some more.

I hope Chinese suffer that catastrophe sooner than later. That is only way to wipe out overinflated Chinese ego and their belligerence. In addition there should be a mechanism to deflate the GDP numbers if these are worthless construction.

The majority people are still benefit from real estate booming, since 70% of Chinese living in their own house not renting. I personally happy to see the this bubble broke, it's painful but will be good for growth for next phase development, now those hot money are investing on chip making, EV, new engergy sectors, not real estate.

People in this forum didn't change much as 10 years ago, any negative cases happening in Chinese financial system, they expected China's total crisis, and to fall as the same level of India...

But the fact is, the China is collapsing from 2x GDP to 6x GDP to India since 2004 ...

 

[rockdog]

India-China trade goes up to over $67 bn in first half of 2022

The India-China trade is on course to cross USD 100 billion for the second consecutive year as it has gone up to USD 67.08 billion in the first half of this year amid a big surge of Chinese exports

India-China trade goes up to over $67 bn in first half of 2022

The India-China trade is on course to cross USD 100 billion for the second consecutive year as it has gone up to USD 67.08 billion in the first half of this year amid a big surge of Chinese exports

www.business-standard.com

The India-China trade is on course to cross USD 100 billion for the second consecutive year as it has gone up to USD 67.08 billion in the first half of this year amid a big surge of Chinese exports, official trade data released here said on Wednesday.
China's exports to India have gone up to USD 57.51 billion, up by 34.5 per cent last year while Indian exports to China fell to USD 9.57 billion, a decline of 35.3 per cent compared to last year, according to the trade data released by China's General Administration of Customs (GAC).

The trade deficit at the half-year mark stood at USD 47.94 billion.
Last year, the India-China bilateral trade hit a record high of over USD 125 billion crossing the USD 100 billion mark in a year when the relations touched a new low due to standoff by the militaries in Eastern Ladakh.
China's exports to India last year went up by

46.2 per cent to USD 97.52 billion while India's exports to China grew by 34.2 per cent to USD 28.14 billion.
The trade deficit for India grew by USD 69.38 billion in 2021.
In May, China insisted that it is still India's biggest trade partner in 2021-22 as per its figures, referring to reports that the US has unseated it to take the top slot and attributed the disparity to different methods of calculating the trade volume by New Delhi and Beijing.
"According to the statistics of Chinese competent authorities, bilateral trade volume between China and India stood at USD 125.66 billion in 2021," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a media briefing when asked about reports of the US overtaking China to become the largest trade partner of India in 2021-22.
"China remains the largest trade partner of India and for the first time the bilateral trade exceeded USD 100 billion in 2021," Zhao said.
"The disparity in trade figures published by China and India is a result of different statistical measurement scales," he said.
Overall, China's foreign trade of goods jumped 9.4 per cent year-on-year to 19.8 trillion yuan (about USD 2.94 trillion) during the first half of the year, according to GAC data.
(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

--------------------------------------------------

If i read posts from DFI, i counld had impression that India didn't buy Chinese stuff any more... But didn't expect India bought more than before, and meanwhile China's import from India is decreasing.

Like the way as "就是喜欢看你不喜欢我但是又不得不买我家东西的样子" (I just like what you look like when you hate me that much while you still buy from me！ ) ...

 

[Concard]

The majority people are still benefit from real estate booming, since 70% of Chinese living in their own house not renting. I personally happy to see the this bubble broke, it's painful but will be good for growth for next phase development, now those hot money are investing on chip making, EV, new engergy sectors, not real estate.

People in this forum didn't change much as 10 years ago, any negative cases happening in Chinese financial system, they expected China's total crisis, and to fall as the same level of India...

But the fact is, the China is collapsing from 2x GDP to 6x GDP to India since 2004 ...

In one line you say real estate boom is good for the people and in another line you say you are happy to see this bubble pop. What exactly are you trying to say here? Real estate market anywhere in the world is about supply and demand. You can only artificially inflate the value of it so much. And there are more losers than winners in real estate.

And no, common folks don't invest in chip making, EV, energy sectors. Private sectors, governments, venture capitalists do by taking great risk. The point I am making is Chinese economy is too oriented towards one sector. And I am talking about stagflation resulting from it not total collapse.

 

[rockdog]

In one line you say real estate boom is good for the people and in another line you say you are happy to see this bubble pop. What exactly are you trying to say here? Real estate market anywhere in the world is about supply and demand. You can only artificially inflate the value of it so much. And there are more losers than winners in real estate.

Real estate boom means the city where you live is valueable. Local governments sold land to earn huge money, Those money to build infrastructures, improving investment environment. Then more companies, supply chain came in. This is positive circulation. Most "none Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen" cities followed this way. This is why i said real estate boom is good.

But bubble means over heat, we all know the what the aftermath will be. It already made Shanghai, Shenzhen the most expensive cities in the world, and it makes young people hard to stay.

And no, common folks don't invest in chip making, EV, energy sectors. Private sectors, governments, venture capitalists do by taking great risk. The point I am making is Chinese economy is too oriented towards one sector. And I am talking about stagflation resulting from it not total collapse.

People buy stocks of companies on chip making, EV, energy sectors from sotck market. People buy financial products from Banks, bank investing those areas, the chain is not that far.

Just in these two years, China owndc 70% world green energy equipment market, and in locals the green energy price is same level of coal based electricity, and no government subsidies needed ... Also suddenly, China became the 2nd largest car exporter ... Time to switch from real estate sector to new areas, it's already started, but few people noticed that.

The point I am making is Chinese economy is too oriented towards one sector. And I am talking about stagflation resulting from it not total collapse.

Sorry it's not you, but you can imagine that how many Indian forum members expect so, they thought China's pain is India's gain ... But India never catch those opportunies for decades...

 

[lcafanboy]

China deploys tanks to protect banks from protesting public....