The following is a post from
gogbot, an Indian member of a Pakistani Forum. He has put a commendable effort in analyzing the LCA Program. All credit therefore goes to
gogbot. It is a must read for all the critics of the LCA program...
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The LCA program Declared a failure, with cost overruns, decades of delays.
But how much of these claims is actually true ?
For the nest few posts i intend to explore what makes the Tejas a failure and what makes it a success.
First a brief overview.
The Indian Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) is the world's smallest, light weight, multi-role combat aircraft. The LCA is designed to meet the requirements of Indian Air Force as its frontline multi-mission single-seat tactical aircraft to replace the MiG-21 series of aircraft.
The LCA program was launched in 1985. The development effort for the LCA is spearheaded by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) under the Department of Defence Research & Development. ADA’s responsibilities include project design, project monitoring and promoting the development of advanced aeronautic technologies of relevance to the LCA.
The Indian government's "self-reliance" goals for the LCA include indigenous development of the three most sophisticated — and hence most challenging — systems: the fly-by-wire (FBW) flight control system (FCS), multi-mode pulse-doppler radar, and afterburning turbofan engine
I want to address the First Issue of its supposed failure.
Chapter 1:The Delays
Many people have made exuberant claims that the program was 10 years delayed to 30 years delayed.
This is simply not the case, if one examines the facts.
The LCA design was finalised in 1990 as a small delta-winged machine with "relaxed static stability" (RSS) to enhance maneuverability performance.
It took 5 years to just design the Aircraft. No small feat considering India's financial status as well as its Lack of experience in making the plane since the second generation fighter (HF-24 Marut) in the late 50's.
One important aspect to note is that only after the Aircraft was designed did any sort of time table for induction even be drafted..
so technically this is when the program started.
Phase 1 would focus on "proof of concept" and would comprise the design, development and testing (DDT) of two technology demonstrator aircraft (TD-1 and TD-2)
Phase 1 commenced in 1990 and HAL started work on the technology demonstrators in mid-1991; however, a financial crunch resulted in full-scale funding not being authorized until April 1993, with significant work on FSED Phase 1 commencing in June. The first technology demonstrator, TD-1, was rolled out on 17 November 1995
Much of the Initial problems with the LCA were financial, leading to its first few delays.
So five years in The first prototype rolled out. Program still very much operating in a reasonable time frame.
The Ministry had stated, in December 1994, that the LCA was expected to enter into squadron services with Initial Operational Clearance by 2002 and with Final Operational Clearance by 2005 provided Government approved Phase-II of FSED in 1995 and accorded clearance for production in 1997. Since proposal for approval of Phase-II of FSED was yet to be submitted to the Government, the chances of meeting the induction schedule of LCA by 2002/2005 were remote.
The first prototype of LCA rolled out on 17 November 1995. Two aircraft technology demonstrators were powered by single GE F404/F2J3 augmented turbofan engines. Regular flights with the state-of-the-art "Kaveri" engine, being developed by the Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE) in Bangalore, were planned for 2002, although by mid-1999 the Kaveri engine had yet to achieve the required thrust-to-weight ratio.
This schedule puts the LCA program with a 15 year development time frame.
The average time frame for Development of any such aircraft.
Following India's nuclear weapons tests in early 1998, the United States placed an embargo on the sale of General Electric 404 jet engines which are to power the LCA. The US also denied the fly-by-wire system for the aircraft sold by the US firm Lockheed-Martin. As of June 1998 the first flight of the LCA had been delayed due to systems integration tests. The first flight awaits completion of the Digital Flight Control Systems, being developed by the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE).
The Ministry explained, in February 1999, that delay in conducting first flight of first technology demonstrator was the main reason for not seeking sanction for Phase-II of FSED. However, clearance for an interim Phase-II from the Government was underway and Phase-II would be concurrently undertaken with the last two years of Phase-I. With this arrangement, Initial Operational Clearance in 2003 and Final Operational Clearance in 2005 would be realised.
On 04 January 2001, India's Light Combat Aircraft LCA flew for the first time. The LCA completed its first batch of tests in 12 flights instead of 15 - ahead of schedule - on June 2, 2001. There has been some delay in Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Project which is mainly due to lack of development experience, non-availability of ready infrastructure, foreign exchange crunch of 1992, sanctions imposed by USA in 1998 and technological complexities. The first technology demonstrator has flown on January 04, 2001 and successfully demonstrated to international experts during Aero India 2001. Further development was in progress for its timely induction in Indian Air Force.
Not only the international Embargo there were problems with The Radar.
Due to delay in development of MMR, government have come out with the collaboration with IAI for development of Radar the sensor for the new radar is supposed to be EL/M-2052 AESA from Elta and the remaining item and software will be combination of MMR and IAI developed products. Varadarajan, (Director — LRDE) has said that LRDE has initiated development of active electronically scanning array radar
The MMR was eventually replaced In favor of the more advanced EL/M-2052 AESA RADAR
There were also problems with the engine.
In mid-2004, the Kaveri failed its high-altitude tests in Russia, ending the last hopes of introducing it with the first production Tejas aircraft.
This eventually led to the Kaveri program to be de-linked from the Tejas program. And developed Independent. whilst the Tejas MK-1 would fly using the The Same GE engine used int the prototypes.
The Hindu : Karnataka News : Kaveri engine programme delinked from the Tejas
The Tejas continued its development to this end and now after a delay of a little over 5 years. The Tejas is finally stated to see An IOC in 2010.
So what have we established in this chapter.
The Tejas was not delayed by over a decade but really only 5 years.
People need to actually take a look at the Tejas time line to realize, That the development cycle of 17 years. while slightly to much is not a giant mess up as some would have u believe
Lets examine the development of a similar plane. The Dassault Rafale
The development of the Rafael and is in fact a similar ambition to that of the LCA.
Both planes were an attempt to improve upon the Successful Mirage aircraft.
Both were supposed to be operated on carriers as well, as in the air force
Both were built with the Intent of having a completely indigenous program
Both had a single seater as well as twin seater version
The difference are clearly the level of technology available to be employed in each aircrafts design.
# 1983, France awarded Dassault a contract for two Avion de Combat eXpérimental (ACX) demonstrators.
# 1985 France formally withdraws from Eurofighter programme, committing to Rafale project.
# 1986 July 4: First flight of Rafale A; December: Development of SNECMA M88 engines commences
# 1988 April: First order signed (for Rafale C prototype).
# 1990 February: Flight tests of M88 begin
# 1991 May 19: First flight of Armée de l'Air single seat prototype (Rafale C); December 12: First flight of Aéronavale prototype (Rafale M)
# 1992 Rafale M carrier trials programme begins
# 1993 March: First contract for production aircraft signed. April: Start of carrier compatibility trials with Foch. April 30: First flight of Armée de l'Air twin seat prototype (Rafale B)
# 1995 June: First MICA fired from Rafale in self guided mode. July: OSF system and helmet-mounted sight/display installed and tested. September: Rafale M tested on board carrier (4th series). November: First non-stop long-range flight by Rafale B01 (3,020 nm in under 6 hours 30 minutes). October: Final land-based carrier test series of Rafale M in the USA. December: First production model fuselage assembly.
# 1996 March: M88 engine "flightworthiness" qualified. April: Production suspended, restarted in January 1997 following cost reductions. May: Low level tests with digital terrain database. July: Spectra electronic warfare system integration tests in anechoic chamber. November: Spectra flight tested. December: First deliveries of production standard engines.
# 1997 February: Rafale B01 flight tested in heavyweight configuration (2 Apache ASMs, three 2,000l drop tanks, two Magic and two MICA AAMs). May: First inertially-guided MICA firing. June: Flight testing of Spectra countermeasures system. October: First production RBE2 radar flown for the first time. November: Inertially-guided firing of missiles against two targets, with aircraft-to-missile link, with countermeasures.
# 1998 June: Qualification of MICA fire control system. Proposed initial operational capability evaluated by Navy and Air Force pilots flying Rafale B01 and M02 development aircraft. November 24: First flight of production Rafale (a Rafale B)
# 1999 May: First test launch of SCALP EG cruise missile. July 6: First deck landing of Charles de Gaulle afgan. July 7: First flight of production Rafale M
# 2000 July 20: First Rafale M delivered to Flotille 12F
# 2002 Rafale M entered service with 12F (Aeronavale, evaluation)
# 2004 Full service entry with 12F (Navy); September 9: First Meteor GHTM (General Handling Training Missiles) carriage trials by Rafale M from CEV Istres; Juneecember: Three Rafale Bs delivered to CEAM, Mont de Marsan
# 2005 September 11: First Meteor GHTM carriage trials by Rafale M from the carrier Charles de Gaulle.
# 2006 Summer: Formation of EC 1/7 with 8–10 aircraft
# 2007 Full service entry (Air Force) expected with EC7; First landing of Rafale M on US Navy carrier USS Enterprise
# 2008 Rafale qualified to full F3 standard
This is Dassault a veteran aircraft manufacturer with more money more, more technology and more experience. Yet their development is well over 15 years. HAL has performed admirably given the the huge list of challenges it has to overcome to bring the Tejas to where it is now.
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AS we move on to the next chapter i would like to mention that The total programme cost for the Rafale, as of 2008, is around €39.6 billion.
This compared to the LCA programme cost of just US$1.2 billion.
Which was supposed to accomplish the same as the Rafael \
India rules out foreign help for Tejas LCA
Antony says 48 billion rupees ($1.2 billion) has so far been spent on the LCA project. However, this has now been pushed back to 2010 because of several technological setbacks and bureaucratic red tape.
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Chapter 2:Cost over runs ?
Earmarked my many as The LCA programs second sing of Failure. Is the 500 % increase in the costs of the project.
The original project cost, incidentally, was estimated to be only Rs 560 crore. The government so far has sanctioned Rs 5,489.78 crore for the development of LCA technology
Rs 5,489.78 crore which translates to about 1.2 billion dollars(depending on the exchange tare)
Often said to be India's white whale, criticized for its gross inefficiency.
But what do these numbers actually mean.
Rs.560 crore is roughly $118,921,214 . Or about the cost of a single Euro fighter typhoon.:what:
Now don't get me wrong i have faith in our scientist. And these figures have not been inflation adjusted.
But the amount of money committed to the LCA project to begin with was peanuts compared to all other development programs arround the world.
Most people would consider, it a miracle that we got anything out of this program at all, considering the gross underestimation of the funding required.
But forget all that, the costs as they stand today amount to Rs 5,489.78 crore which translates to about 1.2 billion dollars. Critics rally to this figure. "A billion dollars clearly money has been misspent here. ?"
Lets examine some other development costs of more advanced and experienced agencies from around the world.
Dassault Rafale
The total programme cost, as of 2008, is around €39.6 billion, which translates to a unit programme cost of approximately €138.5 million. The unit flyaway price as of 2008 is €64 million for C version (Air Force), and €70 million for the Navy version.
A plane i have mentioned in the previous chapter , which was built with the same ambitions as the LCA.
Eurofighter Typhoon
1988 the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Armed Forces told the UK House of Commons that the European Fighter Aircraft would "be a major project, costing £3.3 billion development costs
Mind you this does not include the development costs of the EJ2000 engine otherwise the Costs would have been well in excess of
$15 billion
This next development cost high lights the disparity in the amount of money spent on the LCA programe
UAE funded the entire $3 billion Block 60 development costs, and in exchange will receive royalties if any of the Block 60 aircraft are sold to other nations.
Dubai 2007: UAE shows off its most advanced Falcons
This not a new plane. it was the cost of developing the upgrades for one of the most staple planes in the west. Mind you a new engine was selected attributing to the high costs.
But on that note, it is important to understand that the engine is often the most expensive development cost of the plane.
Development of the Kaveri engine was projected in 1989 to cost Rs. 382.81 crores (nearly US$82 million). In Dec. 2004, it was revealed that the GTRE had spent over Rs. 1,300 crores (around US$295 million) on developing the Kaveri. Furthermore, the Cabinet Committee on Security judged that the Kaveri would not be installed on the LCA before 2012, and revised its estimate for the projected total development cost to Rs. 2,839 crores (more than US$640 million)
That is about half of the money spent of the LCA project. And although it was branded a failure as well. This is in fact not the case.
Scientific Advisor to Defence Minister M Natarajan said nearly 90 to 93 per cent of the expected performance had been realised and the government had recently floated an expression of interest to seek partners to move the programme further
The only reason the engine is not being used right now in its leaky state. which by the way still produces more trust than the enigne used in the Dassault Rafale. Is because The LCA and Kaveri ending up being 200 kg overweight each. Which combined ended up jeopardizing the Amount of Weapons that could be could carry.
Eighter an Increase in trust or a decrease in weight can get the Engine back on track.
But back to costs.
At the end of the day, with all the claims of cost escalation.
The Fact remains.
In December 1996, A. P. J. Abdul Kalam, the then Scientific Adviser, calculated unit costs of US$21 million. At the end of 2001, Dr. Kota Harinarayana, director of the ADA and of the LCA programme, estimated the unit cost for the LCA (for an expected order of 220 aircraft) to be between US$17–20 million, and once production ramped up, that could drop to US$15 million.
However, by 2001 others were indicating that the LCA would cost US$24 million (in excess of Rs. 100 crores [Rs. 1,000,000,000] per aircraft). Considering cost escalations, some aviation experts feel that when the aircraft comes out, it could cost upwards of US$35 million apiece. A Rs. 2,000 crores (over US$450 million) order for 20 Tejas aircraft would represent a unit procurement cost of US$22.6 million for each, which would be consistent with Abdul Kalam's estimates. At a price tag of around US$ 20 to 32 million(Rs. 100-150 crores), the Tejas will be much cheaper than other 4.5 generation fighter planes. (By comparison, the Times of India quoted the costs French Rafale as Rs. 270 crores -US$61 million).
Indian navy has okayed the placement of an order for six Naval LCAs. At an approximate cost of US$31.09 million(Rs 150 crore) per aircraft.
In actually the development costs often help determine the cost of the Plane by the basis of orders.
Whiles the LCA is available for a little over 20 Million dollars.
Most jets around the world excluding the Russians and Chines.
Don't sell a plane for less that 60 million dollars(read back to Dassault Rafale) and some times go upwards to 100 million(typhoon).
Which raises the question how much did the companies really spend of their development to justify such high costs.
Cost over runs ?. What cost over runs?
It is a matter of point of View.
Chapter 3:"Kaveri"
