ADA Tejas (LCA) News and Discussions

[Shaitan]

Re: HAL Tejas, many people said many things, but it is what it is

missed it

It's Tejas over Japan's mount Fuji.

 

[trackwhack]

Evolving Shape of the IAF Aircraft Fleet
The aircraft fleet of the IAF is likely to undergo major changes as well. The Su-30MKI,
numbering about 272 aircraft, would continue to form the high and heavy end of the fleet.
The low end would be comprised of the Tejas LCA which, by then, would be in final
operational clearance (FOC) configuration. Tejas numbers could be expected to be in the
region of 350 to 450 aircraft. The current three squadrons of MiG-29 would be well into
their upgrade and would be available in upgraded form about five years hence. Likewise,
the three squadrons of Mirage-2000H would also be available in upgraded form in a similar
timeframe.

From this thread http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/indian-air-force/41055-transformation-indian-air-force-over-next-decade.html


Thankfully our defense planners and IAF dont feel the plane is obsolete and envision 400 LCA by 2025

 

[p2prada]

IDSA is a think tank, not IAF.

There are a lot of inconsistencies like Mig-21 Bison being phased out in 7-10 years instead of 2-5 years from now. LR-SAM, LCH and AFNET being given 5 years when LR SAM is undergoing tests, LCH is planned for induction early next year and AFNET has already been operational since 2010.

IAF has officially declared a plan of inducting 6 squadrons over 10 years after IOC. So, 400 LCAs by 2025 is suspect.

This report is for domestic consumption. It is speculative on every detail and does not have to be accurate.

 

[sayareakd]

i always said if IAF dont want it then give it to BSF. They have air wing, we can have them as back up in case of war.

 

[Sumonmitra20]

i always said if IAF dont want it then give it to BSF. They have air wing, we can have them as back up in case of war.

Good thought... Like the US National Guard.

 

[Jim Street]

Why not tart selling them in present configuration with scope of upgradation to African and other poor countries. Srilanka will buy it. Hell, we can sell it to BD, as people think we control BD govt.

Sell them to retrieve development cost and use it in further research and development. mass produce them. Don't let other aircrafts without severe competition to be sold to other countries, at least not JF-17.

Just build $ 1 billion worth Tejas MK1 :cool2:

 

[p2prada]

i always said if IAF dont want it then give it to BSF. They have air wing, we can have them as back up in case of war.

BSF won't be involved in offensive or defensive maneuvers. They don't need aircraft.

Good thought... Like the US National Guard.

Rather, Territorial Army.
Bharat Rakshak :: Land Forces Site - The Territorial Army

 

[Kunal Biswas]

From this thread http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/indian-air-force/41055-transformation-indian-air-force-over-next-decade.html

Thankfully our defense planners and IAF dont feel the plane is obsolete and envision 400 LCA by 2025

Its a good calculation..

LCA MK1 is first of its kind will envelope into MK2 then MK3 light fighter category.

Just process of evolution, After all India future as majority have to be indigenous...

 

[drkrn]

i always have a doubt.
if lca gets good orders from iaf and outside how many aircraft should be on order to keep the cost at30mil$ a piece?? or even less

 

[p2prada]

i always have a doubt.
if lca gets good orders from iaf and outside how many aircraft should be on order to keep the cost at30mil$ a piece?? or even less

We can't decide that. ADA or HAL will have to tell us that.

Also, don't believe the numbers given by the IDSA author. To get to 400 from the 2018 IOC date to 2025, India will have to make 50-75 LCA's a year consistently. Not going to happen.

ADA will be lucky to have HAL churning out 8 a year especially considering HAL has been delaying prototype construction by 6 months to a year. The magical LSP-6 is yet to be seen. These aircraft are meant for RAM, AoA tests.

Livefist: Six Tejas Squadrons By 2022

It is planned to induct six LCA squadrons by the end of 13th Plan.

 

[Defcon 1]

Let's not forget there are follow on options for the Rafale to be thought of. There is a chance we may order KDs for Rafale directly from France like we did for the MKI in 2007. There is also the issue of obsolescence that has crept up with the introduction of 5th gen aircraft. So, there is this nagging issue of how China will react to PAKFA and their own program's future.

As of today, N-LCA orders are for Mk2 and only 6 have been ordered. So, any Naval contract will be signed after 2018 when LCA will achieve FOC. IAF will still get the first set of aircraft though.

Also, we don't know how many FGFAs will be made a year. That apart we may see parallel inductions from Russia.

Even I speculated on 50 squadrons, but that is not guaranteed. All we know is IAF plans on having 42 squadrons by 2022 and out of that there will be 22 squadrons of MKI/Rafale followed by 12 squadrons of Mirage-2000/Jag/Mig-29. So, that's 34. Then there will be at least 2 squadrons of Mig-27 pending phasing out by 2025. That's 36. So, there are 8 empty squadrons to be filled by then, at the same time we know PAKFA inductions may happen. Today, we can say 3 squadrons of LCA have orders, 2 MK1 squadrons and 1 Mk2 squadrons.



No. LCA Mk2 design stage ended very recently. Like a few months ago. They are currently building the first prototype. The first flight is in 2014. IOC is expected by 2016, that's when the first MK2 aircraft will be ready and will see an entire IOC squadron in 2 years. note that an "IOC" squadron will be significantly inferior in capability to actual FOC aircraft. In 2018, the first FOC aircraft will be inducted followed by a full squadron in 2020. So, the first Mk2 "FOC" squadron will be inducted in 2020.

At the same time as 2020, when we will have the first actual LCA squadron as thought of back in 1983-85, we will have almost finished 5 squadrons of Rafale F4 and perhaps inducted at least 3 squadrons of PAKFA. That's how it stands if everything goes according to plan.

The catch here is the aircraft will fly in 2014 and be fully inducted in 2020. However note that LCA first flew in 2001 and still has not seen even IOC induction in 2012. So, you need to be realistic with ADA's claims. There are a lot of other uncertainties in the LCA program. For eg: What if we are suddenly involved in a border war with Pak and the US decides to sanction the engines. The AESA will need technological input from a European, Israeli or American company and currently LRDE is looking for a development partner(note that it is not consultancy, but an actual development partner, as in a JV). Note that nearly all non-French western systems can be sanctioned. Only France may pull through. All of LCA's EW capability rests it's shoulders on Israeli company Elbit. As long as the Israeli company is using American technology, it can come under sanctions. Apart from all this there is a high chance ADA or even HAL may be cause for problems. Recently, when LCA stopped all flight testing for sometime, ADA blamed HAL for not building prototypes fast enough and also blamed Rains for the delay. So, you can say if there are any such delays, especially engine issues, then the program may be delayed again by many years or worst case, canceled.

The current plan for Mk1 is a squadron induction over 2 years after IOC(expected this year or early next year) and 2 years more for a squadron of FOC Mk1s. As of today, 2018-2020 is the most optimistic date.

22 Squadrons of Rafale/MKI by 2022 would mean induction of all the Rafales. Seems next to impossible. I don't understand why are you banking on this.

Also, it is beyond comprehension why you keep referring to China. LCA is not meant for China. It will be deployed mostly in southern and western sectors when the opposition is also facing same and even greater level of obsolescence.

It is true that only 6 NLCAs have been ordered till date. But the aircrafts for INS Vishal haven't been ordered nor there is an indication of what aircrafts are planned by the navy. This clearly indicates that navy is watching NLCA. If it gets delivered on time, NLCA will be ordered, otherwise Mig29 or Su33.

Buying aircrafts directly from Russia and keeping the LCA production line idle will be stupid.

I know you speculated 50 squadrons. That is why I took a conservative figure of 46. It is understandable that IAF will definitely be increasing its squadron strength post 2022 as Indian economy would have grown to more than double in size and the chinese would have become stronger as well.

I don't understand why do you think that if 8 squadrons are left to be filled, they will be filled only by FGFA and not by parallel production of LCA and FGFA. For all we know, FGFA production line can be kept busy in the future as it will be required to replace Mig29, Mirage2000 and Mig27. So, parallel production of LCA and FGFA will be most logical choice, maybe even after AMCA hits production as AMCA will be busy replacing the Jags.

 

[p2prada]

22 Squadrons of Rafale/MKI by 2022 would mean induction of all the Rafales. Seems next to impossible. I don't understand why are you banking on this.

Current plan is to induct all 7 squadrons by 2022. That's a squadron a year from 2015. There was also an article claiming it would be from late 2014. If France has it's way and 50% of the Rafale orders are made in France, then the time taken will be well within the prescribed limit.

Also, it is beyond comprehension why you keep referring to China. LCA is not meant for China. It will be deployed mostly in southern and western sectors when the opposition is also facing same and even greater level of obsolescence.

We aren't looking for parity against PAF, we are looking for overkill. Our best fighters will always face Pak. However due to the India's shape in the North and the proximity to both borders, our aircraft can be used on both fronts.

It is true that only 6 NLCAs have been ordered till date. But the aircrafts for INS Vishal haven't been ordered nor there is an indication of what aircrafts are planned by the navy. This clearly indicates that navy is watching NLCA. If it gets delivered on time, NLCA will be ordered, otherwise Mig29 or Su33.

Vishal is confirmed to be a flat top. As of today there is no reference of N-LCA being CATOBAR capable. A new tender will be launched for 80 aircraft and the possible jets are SH, Rafale and F-35. Earlier there were speculations on EF-2000, Sea Gripen and Mig-29K being included. But these three aircraft do not have CATOBAR versions.

Buying aircrafts directly from Russia and keeping the LCA production line idle will be stupid.

I don't understand the relation? What has Russia to do with LCA. If you are referring to PAKFA purchases from Russia(not FGFA) then it has no link to LCA. As a matter of fact, it is obvious IAF will prioritize PAKFA first considering the size and scale of the project.

I don't understand why do you think that if 8 squadrons are left to be filled, they will be filled only by FGFA and not by parallel production of LCA and FGFA.

I said what you said. The remaining 8 squadrons will be shared between PAKFA and LCA. Out of which 3 squadrons are confirmed to be inducted by at least 2020, maybe 4. So, that's 2 squadrons of Mk1 followed by 2 squadrons of Mk2 by 2020.

For all we know, FGFA production line can be kept busy in the future as it will be required to replace Mig29, Mirage2000 and Mig27. So, parallel production of LCA and FGFA will be most logical choice, maybe even after AMCA hits production as AMCA will be busy replacing the Jags.

Mig-29, Mirage-2000 and Jaguar will be phased out beginning from 2025. It all depends on how many squadrons of PAKFA and FGFA will be ordered. The current plan is for 6 LCA squadrons by 2022. So, parallel inductions will happen. Jaguars will be replaced by AMCAs and that's far into the future.

 

[Defcon 1]

Current plan is to induct all 7 squadrons by 2022. That's a squadron a year from 2015. There was also an article claiming it would be from late 2014. If France has it's way and 50% of the Rafale orders are made in France, then the time taken will be well within the prescribed limit.



We aren't looking for parity against PAF, we are looking for overkill. Our best fighters will always face Pak. However due to the India's shape in the North and the proximity to both borders, our aircraft can be used on both fronts.



Vishal is confirmed to be a flat top. As of today there is no reference of N-LCA being CATOBAR capable. A new tender will be launched for 80 aircraft and the possible jets are SH, Rafale and F-35. Earlier there were speculations on EF-2000, Sea Gripen and Mig-29K being included. But these three aircraft do not have CATOBAR versions.



I don't understand the relation? What has Russia to do with LCA. If you are referring to PAKFA purchases from Russia(not FGFA) then it has no link to LCA. As a matter of fact, it is obvious IAF will prioritize PAKFA first considering the size and scale of the project.



I said what you said. The remaining 8 squadrons will be shared between PAKFA and LCA. Out of which 3 squadrons are confirmed to be inducted by at least 2020, maybe 4. So, that's 2 squadrons of Mk1 followed by 2 squadrons of Mk2 by 2020.



Mig-29, Mirage-2000 and Jaguar will be phased out beginning from 2025. It all depends on how many squadrons of PAKFA and FGFA will be ordered. The current plan is for 6 LCA squadrons by 2022. So, parallel inductions will happen. Jaguars will be replaced by AMCAs and that's far into the future.

Yaar, I don't know why do you keep repeating the same old things. It is true that the plan is to induct all squadrons by 2022. But do you think it will be possible? The Rafale will come with AESA. The AESA version of Rafale hasn't even made first flight yet. It will take time for testing and development. And immediately after that, the tech will have to transferred, absorbed by HAL, and production facilities will have to be established. Seeing, HAL's current speed, it is next to impossible. And don't forget that after current negotiations on the deal end, MoD will investigate the whole deal again for wrongoing.

Currently there are no plans to deploy LCA against China, Rafale and MKI will take preference there.

I am saying that it is stupid to buy PAKFA from russia directly and keep the LCA production idle in order to meet the aircraft shortage. I hope it is clear now.

6 squadrons of LCA case is only when the total IAF squadrons are not increased. In all probability, the sanctioned strength will increase post 2022, hence the number of LCA to be ordered will also increase.

 

[p2prada]

Yaar, I don't know why do you keep repeating the same old things.

Because the questions were the same.

It is true that the plan is to induct all squadrons by 2022. But do you think it will be possible?

At the rate Rafale is progressing, yes.

The Rafale will come with AESA. The AESA version of Rafale hasn't even made first flight yet. It will take time for testing and development.

Partly true and it is certainly true that all of this will take time, but current speed of the development will not affect MRCA plans.

AESA tests on older Rafale F3s have already been carried out. IOC for the radar on F3s was accomplished in April this year. By the mid of next year the first Rafale F4 with AESA is expected to be inducted. So, that's 2013. So, the AESA will see at least 2-3 years of service before being inducted in the IAF in the 2015 period.

And immediately after that, the tech will have to transferred, absorbed by HAL, and production facilities will have to be established. Seeing, HAL's current speed, it is next to impossible. And don't forget that after current negotiations on the deal end, MoD will investigate the whole deal again for wrongoing.

Complete manufacturing of the airframe and related equipment is not expected until 2019-20 for HAL. From 2015 to 2018 or 2019, HAL will only be assembling Rafales. But all this depends on the contract that is to be signed. So, you can say France will make at least 3 squadrons from 2013-2017 while HAL will make at least 4 squadrons from 2019 to 2022 with the time in between for learning and assembly. One squadron will come directly from France while the other 2 squadrons will be assembled in HAL. These are just my numbers, but this is how the MKI program happened. So, there is plenty of time for HAL to learn complete manufacturing of the jet.

An interview with the General Manager of HAL on MKI

Can you explain the phases in which the aircraft is being manufactured?

The whole process of the aircraft manufacture is in four phases. In phase I (2004-2005) the aircraft was manufactured and tested in Russia before being flown to India. It was again tested here in Nasik and then painted before the aircraft was handed over to the Indian Air Force. In phase II (2005-2006) 100 per cent of the kits came from Russia. In Nasik AMD, it meant the kits for the entire fuselage, wings and the pipelines. Assembling the kits here took nine months before the aircraft rolled out of the production line. Phase III of the process involved making all items from raw materials except the fuselage. The materials manufactured here included the empennage, canards, wings and the air intake. These were manufactured under Russian supervision and the process took 30 months. The fuselage that came from Russia was in three parts: F1, F2 and F3 or the front, centre and rear fuselage. These parts were assembled here. Phase IV, which has just begun, will take a total of 36 months and will involve making the entire fuselage from the Russian supplied raw material. Indian manufacturers for raw material, like Midhani, can make some of the raw material to required specifications. Present contract for the Su-30MKI aircraft mentions raw material to be delivered by Russia and we will stick to the license agreement terms. Indigenous material will be used for making spares.

As the phases become time-consuming, will this affect the aircraft production rate?

No, this will not happen. For example, phase III which we entered in March this year(2009) was actually started in 2006. We are certain to meet our commitment of giving 140 aircraft to the customer by March 2015.

Currently there are no plans to deploy LCA against China, Rafale and MKI will take preference there.

Trust me, nobody knows that and nobody will know that. It is highly confidential after the home base is announced. As to where LCA will be deployed, we will know after it has been deployed.

I am saying that it is stupid to buy PAKFA from russia directly and keep the LCA production idle in order to meet the aircraft shortage. I hope it is clear now.

No one is going to keep the production line idle for LCA. Once IAF and IN orders are completed, export orders can be handled. Captive orders are expected to be 160-180 for IAF and IN. But, all this only if LCA progresses in time. Also, the production capacity matters too.

6 squadrons of LCA case is only when the total IAF squadrons are not increased. In all probability, the sanctioned strength will increase post 2022, hence the number of LCA to be ordered will also increase.

You can say that once IAF receives it's first IOC squadron for Mk2 more orders will be placed which would push HAL to increase LCA production to one squadron a year. Apart from that, the Navy's possible orders of 2-3 squadrons need to be fulfilled. IAF orders alone are expected to be fulfilled in 2022 and the Navy's immediately after. Beyond that any orders are very speculative because by that time LCA class aircraft will be nearly extinct from all the top Air forces in the world. IAF will also have to wait for the Navy to induct their orders before IAF can place a follow on option.

HAL is trying not to take too many cookies from the cookie jar. 3 major projects will be running in parallel, by the time LCA is ready to the time FGFA will start it's production run. You can say HAL will prioritize PAKFA and Rafale over LCA simply because these projects are far bigger and more technologically challenging. This would imply the best manpower will be engaged in these projects over LCA. If you are expecting HAL to increase production to 50s a year for LCA, then forget it. HAL will be lucky to manage one squadron a year irrespective of the increased production capacity program going on today.

 

[A chauhan]

What are the export possibilities of LCA ?

 

[Kunal Biswas]

What are the export possibilities of LCA ?

It first have to be inducted into IAF..

Then there is good possibility for export..

You need a good image for export..

 

[drkrn]

It first have to be inducted into IAF..

Then there is good possibility for export..

You need a good image for export..

lca already do have a good image
.near 2000 flight tests none failed.its export possibilities only depends on its manufacturing costs. if if near or less than jf-17 it will be preferred by other customers over jf-17

 

[p2prada]

lca already do have a good image
.near 2000 flight tests none failed.its export possibilities only depends on its manufacturing costs. if if near or less than jf-17 it will be preferred by other customers over jf-17

Development test flights are of no concern to export customers, keeping to schedule is.

What they are more concerned about is affordability, maintainability and performance. As of today LCA cannot show any of these because it is still in development. What we can show is promises of goals that are to be achieved in order to lure customers like what US is doing with the F-35. But ADA has no experience to show a high level of confidence to customers like SAAB, MiG or LM can show.

We also need to have good relations with the country in order to sell aircraft. Then we should also be able to answer any questions on obsolescence against a potential customers rival. If India is trying to sell LCAs to Argentina and Brazil buys Rafales then Argentina will ask ADA to prove capability against Rafales or it won't buy LCAs.

Then there is the issue of rival competitors. If JF-17 BIII, LCA Mk2 and Gripen NG are pitted against each other, it is obvious Gripen will top the table in technical points. But there is the issue of cost there with Gripen being more expensive than the other two.

So, if you want LCA to be exported, then the only countries who will want these aircraft are small Air forces. We can target South America and Africa in this case.

Nevertheless a major disadvantage that LCA faces is the American engine. So, we can only sell to countries who are already on good terms with the US. Same with Gripen, except that they already have a decent export market while we have to start from scratch. With the WS-13, JF will no longer have guarantee issues like India or Sweden, but Russia has no problems in exporting the RD-93 anyway.

LCA Mk3 could be a potential export aircraft because it may be developed in time for export to be approved by MoD. With K-10, it will have better chances.

 

[pankaj nema]

Fourth Generation aircraft will remain active till 2040 at least

Fifth generation aircraft are just too FEW in number today

Only 187 F 22 are present today

F 35 will be made in huge numbers ie more than 2000

And there is a huge waiting list for F 35

PAK FA and J 20 will start serial production only after 2020

SO it is totally stupid to call Fourth Generation aircraft as out dated

Otherwise IAF would not be spending BILLIONS on Mirage and Mig 29 upgrades



.

 

[pankaj nema]

LCA mark 2 has to be BETTER than Mig 29 UPG and Mirage 2000 UPG

Then it will be readily accepted by IAF

IAF has clearly stated that BOTH Mig 29 and Mirage 2000 will remain till 2030 atleast

After that the LCA mk2 will be the Fourth gen plane
Su 30mki and Rafale the 4.5 gen plane
and of course the PAK FA the 5 th gen plane