Here's How Israel will Attack Iran

Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by ahmedsid, May 16, 2009.

  1. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    The repartee is no doubt interesting but try keeping the personal comments out. PLEASE.

    What we are all forgetting is that Iran fears and hates the Arabs more if not as much as Israel.
     
  2. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    I would advice everyone to refrain from any form of Sarcasm in such a Public Forum, as it can go out of hand. Sorry If I had broken that rule Myself in my reply.
     
  3. Auberon

    Auberon Regular Member

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    I have not reported the sarcasm, Iv reported you calling my views biased twice, because as it has happened earlier, I know very well if I point out the causes for you thinking why my views are biased, you ll waste no time in calling me Anti-Moslem.

    This from the boy who ll leave warnings for others "not to call anyone's views silly" but do the same himself?

    Refrain from sarcasm , yeah right, thats a rule you just made on the spot now, excellent excuse for justifying your own actions.
     
  4. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    With respect to all the members here , I am to say that I personally feel that no war would take place between Iran and Israel in near future. However, I believe that Iran is not Iraq and are with active pursuance Air Defence Missile to safe guard its interest and also keeping the view that any preemptive strike on its N-facilities should be thwarted at any cost, and same way building stock piles of Missiles and again I am not equating with Israel's and Iran's missile technology for Offence and Defence, but what I am feeling that the interest of the regional powers (China, India and Russia ) works in both the countries and should they come out before that happens.

    Regards
     
  5. zraver

    zraver Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Israel is not going to get deep enough to hurt the program, not with any weapon in their arsenal short of a nuke. The explosions from what they could bring might knock some equipment out of calibration or block an entrance or air shaft, buts that is just a temporary stop. Israel might be better served by going after the soft assets in the area that the hard asset depends on. Water, power, bridges things the facility must have in order to function. The problem of course is that once the bombing stops repairs begin. So Israel needs a way to keep up the attacks despite Iranian defensive action.

    Obviously getting deep enough and a sustained campaign are both major problems for the IDF. On top of the problems they will face inside Iran, they have to get to Iran. Most of the sites are at extreme range which means less payload and less loiter time, and might even require the IDF to come in fairly high for most of the flight to save gas. Then there is the problem of the route, Iran and Israel are not neighbors and there is no way to get there from here so to say. Israel would need permission from at least 1 Arab country in order to attack: either 2 (Jordan and Iraq) or 1 Saudi Arabia. None of these countries will give permission because they know it means Iranian retaliation. There is no viable way to do an air attack. If Israel decides tpo simply ignore the Arabs like they did for Osirak, they are begging for the Arabs to call thier Iranian counterparts and reveal the attack. For one this might forestall ballsitic missile retaliation on them, and secondly its a nice bit of revenge for the illegal settlements, wall and blockade. They don't like either party and fear Iran, but at least Iran is muslim.

    That leaves Israel 3 options-ballsitic missiles, cruise missiles and simply dealing with a nuclear Iran.

    Ballistic missiles can reach any point in Iran, Iran can not shoot them down or even detect the attack until the first one impacts. But there are several disadvantages. The most obvious being Israel does not have many Jericho III missiles and those they have are part of a nuclear force. A couple of BM pot shots is not going to stop the Iranian program, Israel would have to use nukes. Imagine a country using nukes to keep another country from getting them its absurd. On top of that Iran has hundreds perhaps thousands of BM's to soak Israel with. An exchange rate of 10 or 100-1 does not work for Israel.

    The second option, cruise missiles, is a no-go from the start. Israel's German made subs are good and very quite, but the pop-eye missile has limited range and inside the Persian Gulf even those awesome German subs might not be good enough to get back out again. Assuming the Iranians even knew it was Israel, and didn't just assume it was the US and start a wider war. This is the only way that Israel can get those facilities shut down- get the US in the fight.

    But a USA, drug into a war it does not want, and is not set up to fight gives the Iranians a head start on blocking the straits of Hormuz and insures a war lasting long enough to cripple the worlds economy, The US might fight, but would ditch Israel with its ruined economy and shattered cities at the end of the war. Not a winning situation for Israel even if the Iran program was halted.

    The only real option is to deal with it, and rely on nuclear deterrence and keep fighting the proxy wars until a liberal regime takes over in Tehran and until Israel realizes that sharing the water and power is a must and that the illegal settlements have to go. Personally, I don't think Iran wants the bomb, and even if they do they are years away. LEU cannot be made into a fission bomb, it needs to be HEU and that would require kicking the IAEA inspectors and monitoring equipment out. Reports from IAEA inspectors have the Iranians begging questions on safety not enrichment. Oh, for anyone who does not know any better, Iran as a signatory to the NPT has an absolute right to the fuel cycle. Israel who is not a signatory is absolutely bound to be punished for it, by treaty. But look at the reality- the signatory is punished, and the scofflaw is rewarded.
     
  6. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    What is the possibility of mounting a massive intelligence operation to sabotage the Iranian nuke program? The Mossad is a very efficient intelligence agency.
     
  7. ahmedsid

    ahmedsid Top Gun Senior Member

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    You cant wipe out the Knowledge gained. Mossad used to sent Falcons/birds with sensors etc to spy on the facilities I have heard. But they were mostly caught. Dont know how true this is!! Recently some spies were caught in Iran! again dont know if they were Spies or someone with whom the Mullahs had an axe to gring with! Covert Operation is hard, since Irans nuke sites spread far and wide I feel.

    Dont know, maybe Mossad has something in mind, but only Time will tell!
     
  8. zraver

    zraver Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    If Israel could slip the Iranians plans for nuke warheads that are absolutely correct in every regards except for one hidden flaw that will make them fizzel and Iran adopted it as their warhead design if they ever built a bomb that would be a coup.
     
  9. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    Israel will only launch a strike on Iran's reactors with US approval. Without the US to watch their back, they'd be hounded by the international community diplomatically, and by Iran and its allies militarily. With Obama at the helm, the US would never agree to support any such actions by Israel, so this whole scenario is quite implausible.
     
  10. Auberon

    Auberon Regular Member

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    How about GBU 39 "Small Diameter" or maybe AGM-86B, Block 1's , they got heavy conventional warheads and rocket assisted boosters specifically for optimal bunker busting and deep earth penetration.

    .

    To each his own but personally I believe Mossad will be up to the mark in intelligence.

    Sir a bunker buster may not be 100% accurate either, they have to maximise on all their options, ideally a bomber campaign would be perfect but Israel will have a single shot strike, not the luxury of a prolonged bombing campaign.

    Sir a cruise missile is not an optimal choice as an earth penetrator but could they not be easily used to target those Iranian nuclear facilities that are in above ground structures, along with performing a defense suppression role ?
     
  11. Auberon

    Auberon Regular Member

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    Pintu,
    Iranian nukes will primarily have a coercive impact on Persian Gulf countries. By effectively portraying himself as a crazy guy, Ahmadinejad creates the impression he cannot be deterred.

    Iran's expansion is NOT in the rest of the world' interest.Iran's strategic success so far has been its ability to frame its nuclear program as a threat to Israel, rather than to the Persian Gulf and thus a considerable part of the world's oil supply. They have achieved this primarily through the bellicose rhetoric of the holocaust denying Ahmadinejad--and at virtually no cost.
     
  12. Auberon

    Auberon Regular Member

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    True about the current US admin, such an action is in fact contrary to their own interests. IIRC the Carter Doctrine included plans up to and including the use of nuclear weapons to protect the Persian Gulf from the Soviets. Right now the US is still dependent on imported oil, but somehow isn't worried about the catastrophic effect a nuclear armed Iran will have on the strategic alignment of the oil producing states But Iran has managed to frame its nuclear ambitions in terms of mass slaughter of Israelis, and thus the world has gone wobbly with even-handedness and is too stupid to see the threat to its own energy supply.

    Israel acts as necessary for its own defense, and this won't change. The primary threat to Israel is of a regional crisis that spirals out of control. Once Iran has nukes, Iran's allies (Hezbollah, Hamas, or even Syria) will feel emboldened and may even intentionally attempt to trigger a nuclear war, they aren't the sanest of fellows. I don't believe deterrence against Iran will necessarily be useful in restraining Hezbollah or Hamas. But if Israel is not confident that the crazy folks in Tehran are deterred, this gives Israel an incentive to launch a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran.
     
  13. Auberon

    Auberon Regular Member

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    IMHO the military option wont be negated, it ll only serve to broaden the timeframe for the window of attack if needed as there is always the possibility of the flaw being identified and addressed
     
  14. dave lukins

    dave lukins Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    I think if Israel wanted to strike they would, with or without US approval. They have never taken World opinion as a given anyway. I agree with Auberon, that any action will be negated by the US and others, but as I have already stated, this will be of no consequence to them.
     
  15. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    Prophets of doom. :rolleyes:

    Iran is no Iraq that Israel can get away by bombing it's nuke facilities. Iran is not an aggressive state. It has never gone to war in the middle east. If Israel attacks Iran though, it will give the Ayatollahs the perfect reason to "wipe out the Zionist regime". Iran would massively increase its support of Hamas and Hezbollah while launching a war on its own against Israel. And Iran is not one of those Arab countries that would get beat easily by Israel. They fought an 8 year war against Saddam Hussein whose army was being supplied with American weaponry and held their own, while losing almost 1 million people.

    The Israelis are aware of these things, and unless the US backs them with political and military support (which they won't), they won't risk going to war over Iran's nuclear program.
     
  16. Auberon

    Auberon Regular Member

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    Very passive, is that why the harbingers of peace want to wipe out Israel then?

    :coffee_spray:

    With suicide bombers?

    They are doing the best they can, for several years now.

    I thought you said they never fought a war in the Middle East :rolleyes:

    Not at the moment, but ultimately they will, they have no other option.
     
  17. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    Auberon,

    So Ajad doesn't know how to be diplomatic. I believe that actions speak louder than words. Israel has actually attacked its neighbours and started a war, Iran hasn't

    Maybe I should have re-phrased the sentence. Iran has never "started" a war in the ME. If you have information to the contrary, please provide it here. Secondly, anyone who expects Israel to go to war with Iran and easily win IMO displays the utmost naivete.
     
  18. Known_Unknown

    Known_Unknown Devil's Advocate Stars and Ambassadors

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    Yes they do. Give the Palestinians their state as recommended in the UN resolutions.
     
  19. Auberon

    Auberon Regular Member

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    Ajad denies the holocaust ever happened. He is not undiplomatic, he is quite frankly, a loonie.

    What other option did Israel have? How does it affect Israel's operational effectiveness?


    Iranian and ME history are full of wars! The Persian empire wasn't established by diplomacy.
    Iran-Iraq War ignited by Ayatollah Khomeini's call for Iraqi Shi'ites to overthrow Saddam in order to install a Shi'ite government in Baghdad. Now they are provoking Israel and if Israel hits back, Israel ll be the aggressor against the "peaceful" Iranians.

    Anyone who expects Ayotallah to "Wipe Out The Zionist regime" is living in fantasy land.
     
  20. Auberon

    Auberon Regular Member

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    Pallies don't want their state, they want to finish Israel. They hate Israelis more than they love their kids.
     

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