The Syrian Crisis
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Why Russia is standing by Syria's Assad
Russia is not motivated to support Bashar al-Assad by arms sales alone
As the United Nations warns that Syria has descended into civil war, Russia continues to back President Bashar al-Assad in the face of growing international condemnation.
Konstantin von Eggert, political commentator for Kommersant FM radio in Moscow, looks at why the Kremlin is steadfastly supporting the beleaguered Syrian government.
Foreign policy analysts usually tend to explain Moscow's inflexible stance on Syria by evoking arms sales to Damascus (Bashar al-Assad's regime is said to have placed orders for Russian hardware to the tune of $3.5bn) and the Russian naval station in the Syrian port of Tartous.
But this alone does not account for Russia's seeming indifference to the adverse effect that its international advocacy of the Assad government has on its relations with the United States, the European Union and the majority of the Arab states.
The explanation has a lot to do with Russia's domestic policies and the obsessions of the Russian political class.
By standing up for Damascus, the Kremlin is telling the world that neither the UN, nor any other body or group of countries has the right to decide who should or should not govern a sovereign state.
If one looks at the Syrian crisis from this angle, many of Moscow's previously inexplicable actions take on a new, clearer meaning.
Sovereignty is king
Ever since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000, but especially after the 2004 "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, the Russian leadership has been obsessed with the idea of America and the EU engineering the overthrow of governments that, for whatever reason, they find unsuitable.
President Vladimir Putin and his team seem to be convinced that something like that could happen to Russia.
Russia's political class never accepted concepts like "responsibility to protect", which aim to limit the ability of authoritarian governments to repress their own people.
Sovereignty, to the Russian leadership, means an unlimited licence for governments to do as they please within their national borders.
Demonstrators in Kafranbel, near Idlib June 12, 2012.
Anti-Assad protesters have called on Russia to end its support for the Damascus government
Ever since the Nato operation against former Yugoslavia in 1999, Moscow has deeply mistrusted Western humanitarian rhetoric and sees it as nothing but a camouflage for a policy of regime change.
The 2011 Libyan crisis revived these fears. Many Russian leaders, and Mr Putin himself, see then President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to abstain during a vote on UN Security Council Resolution 1973, which authorised a "no-fly zone" over Libya, as a disaster.
In Mr Putin's view, it opened the way for external intervention on behalf of one of the sides, in what was essentially a civil war, and the eventual removal of Col Muammar Gaddafi from power.
It seems that Russia's "new old" president decided not to let this happen again. Moscow's hard-line attitude thus becomes not just a way of defending particular interests, but rather a way of making a very important political point.
Does Moscow realise that another "coalition of the willing" could form to remove Mr Assad from power by military means - Libyan style?
I think it does. But, as I heard one of Russia's most senior diplomats say recently: "We cannot prevent them [read - Western allies and rich Arab states of the Persian Gulf] from trying. But we will never give them a UN resolution cover."
The presumed, unsaid subtext is: Russia will also make this task as difficult as possible.
Saving face
Moscow claims to have a special influence on the regime in Damascus, but it seems that instead of advising Bashar Assad to change his ways, Russian emissaries were telling him until recently - help us to help you. Use some creative window dressing and we'll be able to defend you better.
This approach starts to wear thin as UN special envoy Kofi Annan's mission fails and the Syrian regime's legitimacy starts to haemorrhage with growing speed.
The Kremlin entertains the possibility of Mr Assad's exit from the game but it still considers this possibility remote.
It thinks that with help from Russia, Iran and China, the Syrian leader has a chance of prevailing over his opponents.
However, should the Assad clan be forced to leave, Russia will hope for and work very hard on creating a negotiations framework that would involve external players and possibly give Moscow some scope to bargain over its commercial and military interests in Syria.
But the main goal for Moscow will continue to be a face-saving solution for Mr Assad, which at least outwardly will not look like "regime change" in its classic form.
Off the record, Russian officials like to point to the Yemen roundtable talks which eased veteran Ali Abdullah Saleh from the presidential chair, granted him immunity and installed his own vice-president as the head of state.
But with the Syrian drama's tragic turn, such a scenario looks increasingly unlikely. Which may well leave Moscow stuck with the Assad government till the bitter end.
Why Russia is standing by Syria's Assad — www.bbc.co.uk — Readability
Russia is not motivated to support Bashar al-Assad by arms sales alone
As the United Nations warns that Syria has descended into civil war, Russia continues to back President Bashar al-Assad in the face of growing international condemnation.
Konstantin von Eggert, political commentator for Kommersant FM radio in Moscow, looks at why the Kremlin is steadfastly supporting the beleaguered Syrian government.
Foreign policy analysts usually tend to explain Moscow's inflexible stance on Syria by evoking arms sales to Damascus (Bashar al-Assad's regime is said to have placed orders for Russian hardware to the tune of $3.5bn) and the Russian naval station in the Syrian port of Tartous.
But this alone does not account for Russia's seeming indifference to the adverse effect that its international advocacy of the Assad government has on its relations with the United States, the European Union and the majority of the Arab states.
The explanation has a lot to do with Russia's domestic policies and the obsessions of the Russian political class.
By standing up for Damascus, the Kremlin is telling the world that neither the UN, nor any other body or group of countries has the right to decide who should or should not govern a sovereign state.
If one looks at the Syrian crisis from this angle, many of Moscow's previously inexplicable actions take on a new, clearer meaning.
Sovereignty is king
Ever since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic in 2000, but especially after the 2004 "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, the Russian leadership has been obsessed with the idea of America and the EU engineering the overthrow of governments that, for whatever reason, they find unsuitable.
President Vladimir Putin and his team seem to be convinced that something like that could happen to Russia.
Russia's political class never accepted concepts like "responsibility to protect", which aim to limit the ability of authoritarian governments to repress their own people.
Sovereignty, to the Russian leadership, means an unlimited licence for governments to do as they please within their national borders.
Demonstrators in Kafranbel, near Idlib June 12, 2012.
Anti-Assad protesters have called on Russia to end its support for the Damascus government
Ever since the Nato operation against former Yugoslavia in 1999, Moscow has deeply mistrusted Western humanitarian rhetoric and sees it as nothing but a camouflage for a policy of regime change.
The 2011 Libyan crisis revived these fears. Many Russian leaders, and Mr Putin himself, see then President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to abstain during a vote on UN Security Council Resolution 1973, which authorised a "no-fly zone" over Libya, as a disaster.
In Mr Putin's view, it opened the way for external intervention on behalf of one of the sides, in what was essentially a civil war, and the eventual removal of Col Muammar Gaddafi from power.
It seems that Russia's "new old" president decided not to let this happen again. Moscow's hard-line attitude thus becomes not just a way of defending particular interests, but rather a way of making a very important political point.
Does Moscow realise that another "coalition of the willing" could form to remove Mr Assad from power by military means - Libyan style?
I think it does. But, as I heard one of Russia's most senior diplomats say recently: "We cannot prevent them [read - Western allies and rich Arab states of the Persian Gulf] from trying. But we will never give them a UN resolution cover."
The presumed, unsaid subtext is: Russia will also make this task as difficult as possible.
Saving face
Moscow claims to have a special influence on the regime in Damascus, but it seems that instead of advising Bashar Assad to change his ways, Russian emissaries were telling him until recently - help us to help you. Use some creative window dressing and we'll be able to defend you better.
This approach starts to wear thin as UN special envoy Kofi Annan's mission fails and the Syrian regime's legitimacy starts to haemorrhage with growing speed.
The Kremlin entertains the possibility of Mr Assad's exit from the game but it still considers this possibility remote.
It thinks that with help from Russia, Iran and China, the Syrian leader has a chance of prevailing over his opponents.
However, should the Assad clan be forced to leave, Russia will hope for and work very hard on creating a negotiations framework that would involve external players and possibly give Moscow some scope to bargain over its commercial and military interests in Syria.
But the main goal for Moscow will continue to be a face-saving solution for Mr Assad, which at least outwardly will not look like "regime change" in its classic form.
Off the record, Russian officials like to point to the Yemen roundtable talks which eased veteran Ali Abdullah Saleh from the presidential chair, granted him immunity and installed his own vice-president as the head of state.
But with the Syrian drama's tragic turn, such a scenario looks increasingly unlikely. Which may well leave Moscow stuck with the Assad government till the bitter end.
Why Russia is standing by Syria's Assad — www.bbc.co.uk — Readability
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Re: Russia Planning of Delivering Yak-130 to Syria
Russia prepares to send warships to Syria - FT.com
Russia prepares to send warships to Syria - FT.com
LETHALFORCE
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Syria: Russia to send marines to naval base
Syria: Russia to send marines to naval base - Telegraph
Russia confirmed that it was preparing to send an elite unit of marines to its naval base in Syria on Monday, sharply raising the stakes in its confrontation with the West over the future of the Assad regime.
The planned deployment was designed to send a powerful signal that Russia would not tolerate foreign military intervention in Syria, according to a Western defence source.
It was apparently ordered after the Kremlin came to conclusion that Western powers were preparing to circumvent the United Nations Security Council – where Russia holds a veto – by unilaterally authorising Nato military action in Syria. The source said that Russia had "completely misunderstood" Western intentions.
Classified US satellite images last week indicated that loading work had begun on two amphibious landing vessels, the Nikolai Filchenkov and the Caesar Kunikov, at the Crimean naval base of Sebastopol.
After initially remaining silent on the subject, a senior naval commander yesterday confirmed that both ships would shortly be heading to the Russian base at the Syrian port of Tartus, the Interfax news agency reported.
The officer said that they would carry marines charged with protecting the security of Russian citizens and evacuating a part of the base, marking the first time Moscow has sent troops to Syria since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began more than 15 months ago.
If fully loaded, the two vessels could carry as many as 600 troops and 24 tanks.
Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta, citing anonymous military sources, suggested that the soldiers would be drawn from the elite Pskov airborne brigades and special forces units stationed in Chechnya.
The move comes amid heightened international tension over Syria, with the United States, Britain and France all pressing Russia to accept Mr Assad's departure as part of a new peace plan. Moscow has insisted that it will not tolerate regime change enforced by outside powers.
Russia was particularly unnerved after William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, and other Western officials compared the slaughter in Syria to the civil war in Bosnia in the 1990s, the Western defence official said.
They believed the comparisons amounted to a coded signal that the West was preparing to authorise a Nato mission to Syria similar to the peacekeeping operation mounted in Bosnia and later in Kosovo.
Both missions angered nationalists in Russia, a long-standing ally of Serbia, and is said to have contributed to President Vladimir Putin's deep distrust of the West. Recent experience in Libya, however, suggests that any Nato action without the blessing of the UN is unlikely – even if the West were contemplating it.
But the deployment also signalled that Russia was hedging its bets, according to the diplomat.
"The purpose is threefold," he said. "First, they want to send a signal to the West about military intervention. Second, they want to demonstrate support for Assad.
"But they are also preparing for the worst and realise that the worsening situation may leave them no choice but to evacuate their nationals as a last resort. If that happens, it is game over for the Russians.
"They project strength, but know their position in Syria is actually a weak one. It may be this is a last throw of the dice."
Syria has long been Moscow's most important Arab ally, both as a major importer of its arms and as the providers of Russia's only warm-water naval base outside the former Soviet Union.
Before the uprising began, Russia had hoped to expand its naval presence in Syria in order to give its ailing navy the opportunity of challenging the dominance of the US Fifth Fleet in the Mediterranean.
The planned deployment is the latest in a series of warnings to the West against military involvement in Syria. Last Friday, Russia confirmed that it was shipping advance defensive missile systems to Syria that could be used to shoot down aircraft and sink ships.
"I would like to say these mechanisms are really a good means of defence, a reliable defence against attacks from the air or sea," Anatoly Isaykin, director of the state arms company Rosoboronexport, said.
"This is not a threat, but whoever is planning an attack should think about this."
Syria: Russia to send marines to naval base - Telegraph
Russia confirmed that it was preparing to send an elite unit of marines to its naval base in Syria on Monday, sharply raising the stakes in its confrontation with the West over the future of the Assad regime.
The planned deployment was designed to send a powerful signal that Russia would not tolerate foreign military intervention in Syria, according to a Western defence source.
It was apparently ordered after the Kremlin came to conclusion that Western powers were preparing to circumvent the United Nations Security Council – where Russia holds a veto – by unilaterally authorising Nato military action in Syria. The source said that Russia had "completely misunderstood" Western intentions.
Classified US satellite images last week indicated that loading work had begun on two amphibious landing vessels, the Nikolai Filchenkov and the Caesar Kunikov, at the Crimean naval base of Sebastopol.
After initially remaining silent on the subject, a senior naval commander yesterday confirmed that both ships would shortly be heading to the Russian base at the Syrian port of Tartus, the Interfax news agency reported.
The officer said that they would carry marines charged with protecting the security of Russian citizens and evacuating a part of the base, marking the first time Moscow has sent troops to Syria since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began more than 15 months ago.
If fully loaded, the two vessels could carry as many as 600 troops and 24 tanks.
Russia's Nezavisimaya Gazeta, citing anonymous military sources, suggested that the soldiers would be drawn from the elite Pskov airborne brigades and special forces units stationed in Chechnya.
The move comes amid heightened international tension over Syria, with the United States, Britain and France all pressing Russia to accept Mr Assad's departure as part of a new peace plan. Moscow has insisted that it will not tolerate regime change enforced by outside powers.
Russia was particularly unnerved after William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, and other Western officials compared the slaughter in Syria to the civil war in Bosnia in the 1990s, the Western defence official said.
They believed the comparisons amounted to a coded signal that the West was preparing to authorise a Nato mission to Syria similar to the peacekeeping operation mounted in Bosnia and later in Kosovo.
Both missions angered nationalists in Russia, a long-standing ally of Serbia, and is said to have contributed to President Vladimir Putin's deep distrust of the West. Recent experience in Libya, however, suggests that any Nato action without the blessing of the UN is unlikely – even if the West were contemplating it.
But the deployment also signalled that Russia was hedging its bets, according to the diplomat.
"The purpose is threefold," he said. "First, they want to send a signal to the West about military intervention. Second, they want to demonstrate support for Assad.
"But they are also preparing for the worst and realise that the worsening situation may leave them no choice but to evacuate their nationals as a last resort. If that happens, it is game over for the Russians.
"They project strength, but know their position in Syria is actually a weak one. It may be this is a last throw of the dice."
Syria has long been Moscow's most important Arab ally, both as a major importer of its arms and as the providers of Russia's only warm-water naval base outside the former Soviet Union.
Before the uprising began, Russia had hoped to expand its naval presence in Syria in order to give its ailing navy the opportunity of challenging the dominance of the US Fifth Fleet in the Mediterranean.
The planned deployment is the latest in a series of warnings to the West against military involvement in Syria. Last Friday, Russia confirmed that it was shipping advance defensive missile systems to Syria that could be used to shoot down aircraft and sink ships.
"I would like to say these mechanisms are really a good means of defence, a reliable defence against attacks from the air or sea," Anatoly Isaykin, director of the state arms company Rosoboronexport, said.
"This is not a threat, but whoever is planning an attack should think about this."
Re: Syria: Russia to send marines to naval base
This is getting serious now as Russia in no way wants a repeat of Libya.
There are also rumours of a Russia, China, Iran, Syria military exercise in the offing. Keep in mind that this is just after the US led Jordanian exercise where the GCC and Turkey took part as well.
This is getting serious now as Russia in no way wants a repeat of Libya.
There are also rumours of a Russia, China, Iran, Syria military exercise in the offing. Keep in mind that this is just after the US led Jordanian exercise where the GCC and Turkey took part as well.
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Re: Syria: Russia to send marines to naval base
All one can hope for is that the fighting ends and there is peace once again.
So long as the UNSC is to decide the way it is to be done, there is no hope of a solution.
Unilateral NATO action would only escalate the issue.
So, what is the solution?
All one can hope for is that the fighting ends and there is peace once again.
So long as the UNSC is to decide the way it is to be done, there is no hope of a solution.
Unilateral NATO action would only escalate the issue.
So, what is the solution?
Last edited:
pmaitra
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Re: Syria: Russia to send marines to naval base
The best thing Russia can do now is to bail out Greece, a NATO member, and create a rift within NATO. Manipulate the throttle on energy supplies to Europe citing 'technicalities,' to keep the Western Europeans on their toes, set up military bases in Syria. If Russia gets in there first, the US will not mess with Syria anymore. We will hear a lot of hard talk form the US, just like we heard from Bush during Russia-Georgia war, but no action is going to be taken by the US. Russia should get the Assad regime to do all the law enforcement and not commit its own troops like it did in Afghanistan. There are just two groups of armed Syrians fighting each other now - so all this talk of 'civilians' is getting a tad boring, methinks.
I wonder if this has got something to do with the US Presidential Elections, but I doubt it.
The best thing Russia can do now is to bail out Greece, a NATO member, and create a rift within NATO. Manipulate the throttle on energy supplies to Europe citing 'technicalities,' to keep the Western Europeans on their toes, set up military bases in Syria. If Russia gets in there first, the US will not mess with Syria anymore. We will hear a lot of hard talk form the US, just like we heard from Bush during Russia-Georgia war, but no action is going to be taken by the US. Russia should get the Assad regime to do all the law enforcement and not commit its own troops like it did in Afghanistan. There are just two groups of armed Syrians fighting each other now - so all this talk of 'civilians' is getting a tad boring, methinks.
I wonder if this has got something to do with the US Presidential Elections, but I doubt it.
Re: Syria: Russia to send marines to naval base
Just for reference this was in May. I am sure the Russians didn't miss the hint that lion refers to the name Assad - the president of Syria.
US, 18 other nations, wrap up Eager Lion military exercise in Jordan - CSMonitor.com
Just for reference this was in May. I am sure the Russians didn't miss the hint that lion refers to the name Assad - the president of Syria.
US, 18 other nations, wrap up Eager Lion military exercise in Jordan - CSMonitor.com
agentperry
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BEIRUT: Syria shot down a Turkish warplane on Friday, Lebanon's al Manar television reported, risking a new crisis between Middle Eastern neighbours already at bitter odds over a 16-month-old revolt against Syrian President Bashar al Assad.
"Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defence forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet," the Hezbollah-owned channel said.
Turkey, which had drawn close to Syria before the uprising against Assad, became one of the Syrian leader's fiercest critics when he responded violently to pro-democracy protests inspired by popular upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world.
Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up some kind of safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without UN Security Council approval.
Turkey said it had lost contact with one of its military aircraft off its southeastern coast, and a television station said it had crashed in Syrian territorial waters.
CNN Turk television said Turkey was in contact with the Syrian authorities to get permission to conduct a search for the airmen, although there was no immediate official confirmation.
Turkey's military said a search and rescue operation was under way. It lost radar and radio contact with the plane after it left Erhac airport in the eastern province of Malatya.
Two crew were aboard the F-4 jet, Turkish state news agency Anatolia said, citing Malatya governor Ulvi Saran.
Hurriyet daily newspaper reported that the plane had gone down in international waters and that the two airmen had been found alive and well by Turkish forces.
Violence in Syria raged on unabated.
Rebels killed at least 25 members of a mainly Alawi pro-Assad militia and troops killed 10 anti-Assad protesters in the northern city of Aleppo, opposition activists said.
The violence, which followed a day of bloodshed across Syria in which 125 deaths were reported, is further evidence of a slide towards sectarian-tinged civil war in a country where majority Sunnis are spearheading an anti-Assad revolt.
Russia, one of Assad's strongest backers abroad, said the Syrian authorities were ready to withdraw troops from cities, a main plank of envoy Kofi Annan's never-implemented peace plan, "simultaneously" with rebels.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks with his Syrian counterpart that he had urged Syria to "do a lot more" to implement Annan's UN-backed proposals, but that foreign countries must also press rebels to stop the violence.
Hundreds of people have been killed in Syria since the UN-Arab League mediator announced his six-point plan on April 12 and there was no let-up in the violence on Friday.
"Syrian security sources confirmed to a Manar correspondent in Damascus that Syrian defence forces shot down the Turkish fighter jet," the Hezbollah-owned channel said.
Turkey, which had drawn close to Syria before the uprising against Assad, became one of the Syrian leader's fiercest critics when he responded violently to pro-democracy protests inspired by popular upheavals elsewhere in the Arab world.
Ankara has previously floated the possibility of setting up some kind of safe haven or humanitarian corridor inside Syria, which would entail military intervention, but has said it would undertake no such action without UN Security Council approval.
Turkey said it had lost contact with one of its military aircraft off its southeastern coast, and a television station said it had crashed in Syrian territorial waters.
CNN Turk television said Turkey was in contact with the Syrian authorities to get permission to conduct a search for the airmen, although there was no immediate official confirmation.
Turkey's military said a search and rescue operation was under way. It lost radar and radio contact with the plane after it left Erhac airport in the eastern province of Malatya.
Two crew were aboard the F-4 jet, Turkish state news agency Anatolia said, citing Malatya governor Ulvi Saran.
Hurriyet daily newspaper reported that the plane had gone down in international waters and that the two airmen had been found alive and well by Turkish forces.
Violence in Syria raged on unabated.
Rebels killed at least 25 members of a mainly Alawi pro-Assad militia and troops killed 10 anti-Assad protesters in the northern city of Aleppo, opposition activists said.
The violence, which followed a day of bloodshed across Syria in which 125 deaths were reported, is further evidence of a slide towards sectarian-tinged civil war in a country where majority Sunnis are spearheading an anti-Assad revolt.
Russia, one of Assad's strongest backers abroad, said the Syrian authorities were ready to withdraw troops from cities, a main plank of envoy Kofi Annan's never-implemented peace plan, "simultaneously" with rebels.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after talks with his Syrian counterpart that he had urged Syria to "do a lot more" to implement Annan's UN-backed proposals, but that foreign countries must also press rebels to stop the violence.
Hundreds of people have been killed in Syria since the UN-Arab League mediator announced his six-point plan on April 12 and there was no let-up in the violence on Friday.
Zebra
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Turkish warplane 'missing' near Syrian border
22 June 2012 Last updated at 20:59 GMT
BBC News - Turkish warplane 'missing' near Syrian border
22 June 2012 Last updated at 20:59 GMT
BBC News - Turkish warplane 'missing' near Syrian border
amoy
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Syria air defenses shot down Turkish military plane
Syria air defenses shot down Turkish military plane
DEBKAfile Special Report June 22, 2012, 11:24 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Turkey Syrian army plane shot down
Syria air defenses shot down Turkish military plane
DEBKAfile Special Report June 22, 2012, 11:24 PM (GMT+02:00) Tags: Turkey Syrian army plane shot down
It's deliberate for Syria to prove that foreign intervention does exist and escalate the whole issue IMO, in connection with recent Russian arm delivery to Syria.
IBSA
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Turkey recognizes that lost a fighter and promises to take the 'necessary measures'. What are this 'necessary measures'? I think Turkey can active now the NATO alliance. Cool, I think will there war now.
If NATO as a whole attacking Syria to defend a member of it, will the Russia continues to defend Syria or will retreat her position?
If NATO as a whole attacking Syria to defend a member of it, will the Russia continues to defend Syria or will retreat her position?
Last edited:
amoy
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Though I wish this incident turn out to be like the Sarajevo bullet for WW1 Turkey would probably lick the wound without retaliation.
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Turkey is talking about invoking Article 4 of the NATO charter. This could well be the casus belli we have been looking for. Is Russia willing to have a showdown with NATO?
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AAA. The F4 is said to be flying low. IMO
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If Turkey wanted to ouster Assad, they could do it from the ground. FSA is slaughtering Syrian armour so it is no match for Turkish Army. It would need help from countries like France to gain air superiority.
