Chinese will not get any 5-th gen fighters for at least 30 years to come.
The reasons are simple:
1 - They have no engines for them. They even don't understand how to develop them. Modern engine is not a rocket science. It is quantum mechanics
Engines require some exotic and very sensitive technologies and sciences which are not trivial and are capt behind the 7 locks by any engine developer.
They are:
- Gas dynamics and temperature/flow measurment and calculations methodics (they are complete fundamental and usual physical theories in the gas dynamics and solid body physics fields);
- Physics and Chemistry (actual quantum physics) of exotic heat-resistant materials and their alloys. Also the technological lines to produce those materials and make engine details from them. Many of those materials are impossible according to traditional chemistry (like Titanium Alluminide and Rhenium/Ruthenium Titanium alloys).
- Physics, Chemistry and technologies to produce single-crystalled engine parts with complex form and structure (only those materials can resist 1900K and giant pressure / drag after turbin). Chineese try to use usual poly-crystal titanium alloys and fail - their turbin blades melt like childrens plastilin
- Physics, Chemistry and technologies to produce heat-resistant ceramic coatings for engine parts and technologies to make them stick to those parts. Nowadays target for Russian and American techs is full-ceramic turbin blades and combustion chamber armored with monocrystallic bi-metal strings (just like iron-armored concrete).
China has launched a tremendous national program for engine development 2 months ago. The main goal for this program is to learn to design and produce existing (4++) engines in 30 years to come (to Year 2035)
2 - They have no radars and NO AESA
- AESA radars require to produce integrative monolithic UHF schemes based on vertical-integrated nano-sized structures of Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) or the other similar entities. This tech requires to be able to produce nano-sized rare-exotic elements mono-crystallic constructions and then cover them with specially oriented covers made of the exotic metals and alloys. Those covers are connected to each other in specific way or through electrical channels in the core construct. Those covers are 2-3 atoms thick
This is real quantum mechanics to calculate and design (and then produce) those chips. They are completely different than usual computer chips. GP computer technologies will not help here.
- AESA radars require you to know radio-physics and electro-dynamics to calculate and design an antennae. This is hell-of a complex work. You will keep in mind electro-magnetic compliance of the 1500+ closely packed TRMs, their cooling, shielding, sidelobes reducing and optimizations and many other things Chineese cannot do because you cannot learn about it just disassembling the foreign radar.
- AESA radars require state-of-the-art software to control electronic scanning, generate and process PNS (pseudo-noise signals) sequences, select the targets through jamming, amplify it and so on. You cannot develop such a software without complete understanding of your hardware on fundamental physical level.
BTW, chinese developers are dumb bug-producers. They can good work using open well-documented SDKs, but cannod do a step on their own.
Copy-paste an iPhone (just assemble it from existing parts like original one) and airborn radar are completely different jobs.
We all have seen Chineese photos of J-10B with the thing claimed to be AESA radar. However, there were no evedence that that rig was any in the flight. It much resembles a full-sized mockup. Its antennae has Dm-wave IFF fairings on the main canvas, which is hell-of-uneffective and were removed by all the radar producers and reinstalled to the oher places (remember PAK FA L-band AESA in the wing edges which are IFF antennaes).
We also have seen a poor photo of Chinese made TRM. However, we don't know what is this for. Is it for fighter radar, or for another one (there is a big difference) and is it a mass-produced one or just a prototype? What is its quality? Questions only.
BTW, only 2 countries in the world can efficiently produce their own TRMs. It is USA and Russia.
The point is that Americans have calculated that you have a reason to produce your own TRM only when their price is lower than $100 in 1000-pieces parties. According to Yuriy Beliy (chief designer and director of NIIP), Americans (Texas Instruments) make them at a price of $85 a piece and Russians (Istok JSC) produces them for $70 a piece due to low defect rates.
Europeans and Israeli has tried to produce their own TRMs but they have them at a price $1000 a piece
They treat recent price shortage to $750 a piece as a great victory
So, all the worlds radar manufacturers use American (TI) imported TRMs including Thales (RBe-2), Selex (Galileo) and Elta. Only Russians use their own. Chinese have no their own electronic industry. All they have are foreighn-owned factories to produce GP processors using foreign technologies. It is almost only in Shengeng Free Economy Zone. No vertical-integrated nano-structures even close. What AESA are they talking about???
3 - They have no reliable technologies to design and produce valid composite materials. If you will look at J-20 you will see that it is completely made from aluminium and covered with "stealth-looking" coating resembling automotive 3D-Carbon film covers
4 - They cannot design and calculate a valid airframe - they can only compile popular stealth-looking design patterns in hope that this will work someway.
It resembles a cargo-cult
Their science and engineering school is too young to make 5 gen for now. They even cannot make 4 gen without foreign assistance.
The bright example is J-15. They had purchased T-10-3 (Su-33 early prototype) from Ukraine and copy-pasted it bolt-to-bolt. They have not even seen and eliminated its childrens illnesses which were eliminated on serial-built Su-33.
If I will count what Chinese lack to build true 5-gen, it will take dosen of pages, so if you are interested, we can discuss it later.