Suggestion: Dedicated country watch & Idiots' Musings sections for Turkey & Azerbaijan

[FalconSlayers]

 

[FalconSlayers]

Turkish man rapes Dutch cow; Islamophobes have a field day

The incident is likely to serve as ammunition for the swelling number of Islamophobes in the country.

www.al-monitor.com

 

[Jimih]

A seperate Turkey Idiotic Musings thread is required now.

 

[Smoothbore125mm]

this guy just keep shitposting bout india i mean the picture he posted has 1 aircraft carrier more than what turkey has lmao

 

[FalconSlayers]

Gutterbaijani media

India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSU

India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSU

en.apa.az

 

[Satish Sharma]

Gutterbaijani media

India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSU

India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSU

en.apa.az

What I have heard is it will max out at 1.7 billions.

 

[Satish Sharma]

Ohh yeah

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Gutterbaijani media

India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSU

India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSU

en.apa.az

What is the mathematical model here?
India's TFR is 2.1 and population growth rate is 0.9% pa (still declining). It's peak lies at 2058 (1.67 billion) to decline again back to 1.3 billion in 2100 (2015-18 levels).

So, does his mathematical model believes that 2011-2021 pop growth will continue as it is in India?

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[Crazywithmath]

to decline again back to 1.3 billion in 2100 (2015-18 levels).

As I have written before, not too sure about that decline thingy. Unlike the East Asian nations, we don't have the unique combination of a low marriage rate, a high divorce rate and an insanely high female labor force participation rate (coupled with stagnant real wages) yet. And our dependence on internal consumption augurs well for our future growth prospects (higher economic growth <=> less uncertainty <=> healthy TFR). Our TFR has been stabilizing for some time now but a total collapse, imo, seems unlikely. Shinzo Abe's diplomats once called India the 'France of emerging economies' for the consistent netrality of the GoI but ironically, there are bigger parallels between these two nations (France maintains a TFR of 1.8-1.9; one of the highest among the EU nations).

But then again, it is insanely difficult to make long term projections and demographers are famously considered even bigger charlatans than the economists by some, so...

 

[Satish Sharma]

They're going Pakistani way.
Khalifa Erdogandu Will do chaos in 2028 election..
They have dollar we have Allah worked for 2023 but it doesnt seem it work for 2028.
It didn't work for this elections either.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

As I have written before, not too sure about that decline thingy. Unlike the East Asian nations, we don't have the unique combination of a low marriage rate, a high divorce rate and an insanely high female labor force participation rate (coupled with stagnant real wages) yet. And our dependence on internal consumption augurs well for our future growth prospects (higher economic growth <=> less uncertainty <=> healthy TFR). Our TFR has been stabilizing for some time now but a total collapse, imo, seems unlikely. Shinzo Abe's diplomats once called India the 'France of emerging economies' for the consistent netrality of the GoI but ironically, there are bigger parallels between these two nations (France maintains a TFR of 1.8-1.9; one of the highest among the EU nations).

But then again, it is insanely difficult to make long term projections and demographers are famously considered even bigger charlatans than the economists by some, so...

Rise and decline of population on DTM model is strictly common for every society.

India doesn't have a low marriage trend (which is gradually taking place though since average marriage age is crossing 30 at any areas), childless or 1 child marriages are too common at educated couples.

Most of rich states have low or negative population growth rate already.

Hindus have already TFR below 2.1 (just stabilised, preparing to decline), Sikhs have 1.8 (declining).

 

[Crazywithmath]

Rise and decline of population on DTM model is strictly common for every society.

The TFR will decline some more and the population will be stabilizing overall but chances are that it won't be a full blown crisis like those nations across East Asia and Southern Europe.

And average marriage age in India is well below 30 (tiny % of uber rich urban folks don't count). In fact, one can even argue that marrying late leaves very minimal impact on the overall population growth (as long as the avg marriage age does not move past late 30s, that is) because many of the Scandinavian nations keep maintaining remarkably stable populations despite their avg first marriage age hovering between 30-35.

childless or 1 child marriages are too common at educated couples.

The only estimate of childlessness is based on those pieces of junk NFHS data and their estimates are at about 11-12% (iirc). Not very statistically significant yet.

Again, since these estimates are based on the NFHS - only the upcoming census will reveal the true picture.

Most of rich states have low or negative population growth rate already.

Such regional disparities will exist but overall, it does not stop the nation from attaining a stable population. The geographic location and the sheer size of the population of UP and Bihar make it nearly impossible for these states to attain a level of development similar to say, Tamil Nadu or Telangana and thus, these states will keep maintaining higher TFR.

Hindus have already TFR below 2.1 (just stabilised, preparing to decline), Sikhs have 1.8 (declining).

H TFR shd be declining a little more before approaching the asymptote eventually. And Sikhs (primarily concentrated in Punjab) have bigger issues plaguing them (that have to do with the broader socio-economic fallout across the state) which deserves a separate post on its own.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

The TFR will decline some more and the population will be stabilizing overall but chances are that it won't be a full blown crisis like those nations across East Asia and Southern Europe.

There is no supporting source, indication, trend, report or research that India's population graph won't follow same trend.

A permanent stabilisation solely for India without any logic, is simply a wet dream real as unicorns.

And average marriage age in India is well below 30 (tiny % of uber rich urban folks don't count).

You have to wait for census in that case. It is more than common in tier 3 city and 10-20% is enough to alter situation.

Marrying in 30s isn't a rich urban trend. It's a reality of formally employed salaried folks belonging to lower middle class who are guiding their families to upper middle class.

The only estimate of childlessness is based on those pieces of junk NFHS data and their estimates are at about 11-12% (iirc). Not very statistically significant yet.

You better come up with a contradicting source before calling NFHS junk in that case. Since no other source contradicts it. From PeW to previous two census.

Such regional disparities will exist but overall, it does not stop the nation from attaining a stable population

High population growth states have prevented nation from having a declining population. And they will not do it for more than 3 decades (or even less).
India's every census ends up with lower population than UN projection.

The geographic location and the sheer size of the population of UP and Bihar make it nearly impossible for these states to attain a level of development similar to say, Tamil Nadu or Telangana and thus, these states will keep maintaining higher TFR.

Factually incorrect.

1. It's Rajasthan (and Ladakh) whose geography restricts socio economic development. UP & Bihar are more than ripe. Population density, resources and industries.
2. UP does have a high GDP per capita and HDI growth.
3. TFR always declines upto stage 5 with time regardless of socio economic status of country. Every generation, even if economically not powerful than previous one, always has less babies than previous one as education takes root.

So, there is no Indian state with TFR above 3 even today and there will be no Indian state with TFR above 2 after 20 years.

H TFR shd be declining a little more before approaching the asymptote eventually. And Sikhs (primarily concentrated in Punjab) have bigger issues plaguing them (that have to do with the broader socio-economic fallout across the state) which deserves a separate post on its own.

"Why" is not our topic. Our topic is about "if population of India will decline" and there must be a supporting evidence or at least logic that Indian population will not decline despite ongoing trend. I don't think there is any.

 

[Crazywithmath]

There is no supporting source, indication, trend, report or research that India's population graph won't follow same trend.

A permanent stabilisation solely for India without any logic, is simply a wet dream real as unicorns.

Permanent stabilization? Lol no. I am no astrologer, can't predict how things will pan out a century later. All I am claiming is that India DOES NOT have the unique combination of low marriage rate+high divorce rate+high childlessness+high female labor force participation+real wage growth stagnation and hence, basing India's projections on other Asian nations (JPN, KOR, VN, CHN etc) does not make any sense (a lot of papers I have come across take inspirations from the former emerging economies and hence the comparison).

The domestic consumption dependent decently complex economies perform better at maintaining a more stable TFR; hence the parallel with India. Also, a stable (if not high) economic growth augurs well for a healthy birth rate (a customary look across some western nations between 1990s and early 2010s would confirm as much) - which is again, more likely in a mature economy with decent domestic consumption; not a heavily export dependent one.

You have to wait for census in that case. It is more than common in tier 3 city and 10-20% is enough to alter situation.

Really? You kept mentioning NFHS so I assumed you would be familiar with their findings too but anyway....

The median age of first marriage (among women 20-49 years of age) is 19.2 yrs - according to NFHS-5.

Not that I give a damn about shitty NFHS or its findings anyway - just mentioning it since you brought it into discussion.

And last but not the least, as I mentioned earlier, higher avg marriage age is not necessarily an impediment to a healthy fertility rate (as those Nordic nations have shown) - there are bigger factors at play.

Marrying in 30s isn't a rich urban trend. It's a reality of formally employed salaried folks belonging to lower middle class who are guiding their families to upper middle class.

Formally employed salaried folks are still a small %. If anything, rural wage growth has been muted and the reduced pace of transition (into urban middle class) has been a major policy failure of the incumbent govt; I have written multiple posts on it on the economy thread so won't dive into the details.

You better come up with a contradicting source before calling NFHS junk in that case. Since no other source contradicts it. From PeW to previous two census.

Contradicting source to junk the NFHS? Of all? Lol, please! The incumbent members of the PM-EAC have done it already. Sanjeev Sanyal and Bibek Debroy wrote articles as recently as a few weeks back trashing their methodologies and standards. Shamika Ravi has been voicing her opinions for years now. A former Professor of mine (an ISI Kolkata guy; someone who was actually involved with the NSO, MosPI) once told me that even the GoI knew that their surveys were shitty.

And I have written posts after posts where I drew parallels with the previous Asian tigers (Japan etc) and explained why the child malnutrition numbers (as claimed by the NFHS-5) are way off the mark in the economy thread as recently as a few weeks back.

High population growth states have prevented nation from having a declining population. And they will not do it for more than 3 decades (or even less).
India's every census ends up with lower population than UN projection.

Please ask those UN employed demographers to explain the post world war era population boom first. Or why they were fear mongering about the supposed population explotion in India and forced the Indira Gandhi led govt to forcefully sterilize lakhs of innocent civilians. It is only natural that people will be judged in accordance with their past track record, isn't it?

Again, I don't want to disrespect them but there is a reason why demographers are called even bigger charlatans than the economists.

As far as the trends are concerned, I can make more detailed assessments once the census is done and the findings are made public.

Factually incorrect.

1. It's Rajasthan (and Ladakh) whose geography restricts socio economic development. UP & Bihar are more than ripe. Population density, resources and industries.
2. UP does have a high GDP per capita and HDI growth.

This thing requires a separate counter. Will post that later; whenever I am free.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Turkroach nationalists are really something else man, truly a hilarious breed .

 

[Jimih]

Turkroach nationalists are really something else man, truly a hilarious breed .
View attachment 247326

 

[FalconSlayers]

 

[Satish Sharma]

Turkroach nationalists are really something else man, truly a hilarious breed .
View attachment 247326

Dayum we should reduce the altitude towards turkey

 

[Marliii]

View attachment 247403

His " Excellency" Modi has
Destroyed the economy
Flooded his country with illegal immigrants
Pissed out france into signing a defence treaty with greece
Made policies that caused construction of shitty buildings that resulted in the death of 50k
Had a coup against him
Invaded a sovereign country and got his shit blasted and now is occupying parts of that country which was under civil war.
Follows hindutva economics when it has been shown to be lonney tunes idea
Bought a russian airdefence system and got sanctioned.
Cant shut up his mouth and made an enemy of a future global power when his funny bird name country cant even be called a middle power.