QUAD; The Concert of Democracies for Trade, Security & Diplomacy

[shade]

No one has discussed this scenario at all; the world would be too shocked for a week at least, giving PLA the time to enter a leaderless Taiwan.

Thoughts here?

The west will do trouser shivering, squander the small window in which they can actually act, and later go to make deals with 11 Jinpooh.
US doesn't seem be the credible deterrent now against Chinese gaandmasti, and what is stopping 11 from doing his reunification is the possible economic fallout of such a stunt, not military, modern "peace" is mainly achieved to priotization of business and economic interests over national ones.

 

[Tshering22]

The west will do trouser shivering, squander the small window in which they can actually act, and later go to make deals with 11 Jinpooh.
US doesn't seem be the credible deterrent now against Chinese gaandmasti, and what is stopping 11 from doing his reunification is the possible economic fallout of such a stunt, not military, modern "peace" is mainly achieved to priotization of business and economic interests over national ones.

What I am trying to say is that PLA will most likely do this to set an example and intimidate other countries into not resisting their demands; meaning us and the Australians. Taiwan is the perfect country to make an example of:

1) It is considered a renegade part of China that PLA can enter after this shock bombing.
2) It does not have long-range cruise and ballistic missiles to flatten mainland cities.
3) The US will not be willing to fight a war anymore with them.

They could do the same with us, though with cruise missiles and rocket artillery, against our border cities as their longe range artillery can strike into our border states easily from Tibet. I wonder if the Indian Army has factored in this situation and prepared a response to strike the Pearl Delta River area using missiles from the northeast. Or find other means to weaken CCP's hold on Tibet in retaliation.

 

[ezsasa]

The west will do trouser shivering, squander the small window in which they can actually act, and later go to make deals with 11 Jinpooh.
US doesn't seem be the credible deterrent now against Chinese gaandmasti, and what is stopping 11 from doing his reunification is the possible economic fallout of such a stunt, not military, modern "peace" is mainly achieved to priotization of business and economic interests over national ones.

U.S. troops rotating into Taiwan for training -sources

U.S. troops rotating into Taiwan for training -sources

Small numbers of U.S. special operations forces have been rotating into Taiwan on a temporary basis to train with Taiwanese forces, two sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity.

www.reuters.com

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

You know. the CCP is known to do something least expected for quite some time. The creation of artificial islands in the South China Sea; the sudden sneak attack on 20 Indian soldiers; flying routine spy UAVs in Taiwanese ADIZ, et al.

Right now, everyone is expecting them to send PLAN marines on amphibious assault missions against Taiwanese forces. However, what would the world do if:

1- PLA was to directly revert to using long-range artillery and rocket forces?
2- Use their satellite network to target critical government buildings with long-range cruise missiles and conventional ballistic missiles?

Both these attacks could be against the Taiwanese parliament, presidential palace, stock market building, Taiwanese military GHQ, and military factories that manufacture weapons?

No one has discussed this scenario at all; the world would be too shocked for a week at least, giving PLA the time to enter a leaderless Taiwan.

Thoughts here?

China already said that any attempt by Taiwan to change their name from "republic of china" to "republic of taiwan" or to formalize independence is a declaration of war.

Plus, America is a paper eagle. Over the last decade, It has lost wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria. The head of its military was literally just discovered to be in kahoots with China.

Despite all that, I think the answer is No. Simply because it's in literally no one's interest to have a war. China would have to initiate the war and would incur huge sanctions and general condemnation despite all their propaganda. Even if they only occupy Taiwan (and that's a big if, because if the US gets involved, they'd be fighting a naval war with a country with 10 times their strength at sea, albeit spread across the globe, and would need to launch the largest naval invasion since D-Day probably without air superiority) there would be huge international repercussions.

Their reward would be a PR disaster that would galvanize the rest of East Asia against them, provoke Japan into rearming, and lead to sanctions that would crush their economy.

The US and China are each other's largest trading partners; just because they're ostensibly ideological enemies doesn't mean they're going to fight a war which would destroy both their economies and imperil their geopolitical interests. American politicians need to rail about how terrible China is to make people accept the fact that their biggest economic partner is an evil totalitarian dictatorship and Chinese leaders need to rail about how terrible the US is to undermine the efforts of the moronic hardliners who actually want a retarded war.

 

[Tshering22]

China already said that any attempt by Taiwan to change their name from "republic of china" to "republic of taiwan" or to formalize independence is a declaration of war.

Plus, America is a paper eagle. Over the last decade, It has lost wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria. The head of its military was literally just discovered to be in cahoots with China.

The US and China are each other's largest trading partners; just because they're ostensibly ideological enemies doesn't mean they're going to fight a war that would destroy both their economies and imperil their geopolitical interests. American politicians need to rail about how terrible China is to make people accept the fact that their biggest economic partner is an evil totalitarian dictatorship and Chinese leaders need to rail about how terrible the US is to undermine the efforts of the moronic hardliners who actually want a retarded war.

That is precisely what I am concerned about. The US and China have been for long flirting with the idea of G-2, where the two come to a compromise and divide the world along the USSR-era lines, with trade being the primary mode of diplomacy.

US may be training Taiwanese soldiers, but training does not mean that Americans will send their own troops to fight China; not unless Guam, a part of the US territory, is in danger. If the Chinese secretly assure the US that no harm will come to their economic interests, Taiwan AND India would be on their own.

Japan and South Korea may be high-tech, but they are too weak to raise any voice against such a potential development. Their governments rely on the USA to exist. They would simply accept the fate and move on while Australia will be doing nothing except more guarded patrols of its waters.

The biggest victims would be us and the Taiwanese; unless our Babus grow some brains and create an alternative military pact with Vietnam and Taiwan of a three-front attack if one is attacked.

Wishful thinking but someone has to plan it. Otherwise, we are headed for a big, big problem.

 

[Optimistic Nihilist]

That is precisely what I am concerned about. The US and China have been for long flirting with the idea of G-2, where the two come to a compromise and divide the world along the USSR-era lines, with trade being the primary mode of diplomacy.

US may be training Taiwanese soldiers, but training does not mean that Americans will send their own troops to fight China; not unless Guam, a part of the US territory, is in danger. If the Chinese secretly assure the US that no harm will come to their economic interests, Taiwan AND India would be on their own.

Japan and South Korea may be high-tech, but they are too weak to raise any voice against such a potential development. Their governments rely on the USA to exist. They would simply accept the fate and move on while Australia will be doing nothing except more guarded patrols of its waters.

The biggest victims would be us and the Taiwanese; unless our Babus grow some brains and create an alternative military pact with Vietnam and Taiwan of a three-front attack if one is attacked.

Wishful thinking but someone has to plan it. Otherwise, we are headed for a big, big problem.

Well if all that somehow happens, it would be great. But I do not believe that John Chinaman will actually make any serious moves towards Taiwan.

Let's assume that they do and even somehow manage to take it, what is the point when they can't hold them?

China takes Taiwan...takes about 3 days (if that). OK, great. Now every China flagged vessel on the sea is going to be sunk or ceased. China loses its number 1 trading partner (50% of China's trade is with the US...50 fucking percent). Every slant eyed Chink in the US and the West is now experiencing REAL systemic racism, if not outright interned.

So their spies are fucked, and the US is probably sabotaging the fuck out of them, such as their dams, or poisoning their crops, plus USA no longer sends them food and they don't produce enough to feed themselves. A nation of a billion Chinks that had a taste of a good life are suddenly stone age poor again.

Then the civil unrest and wars start. A billion Chinks killing each other.

No, the harmful consequences of waging a war against Taiwan is much more than the potential rewards.

 

[Sridhar_TN]

That is precisely what I am concerned about. The US and China have been for long flirting with the idea of G-2, where the two come to a compromise and divide the world along the USSR-era lines, with trade being the primary mode of diplomacy.

US may be training Taiwanese soldiers, but training does not mean that Americans will send their own troops to fight China; not unless Guam, a part of the US territory, is in danger. If the Chinese secretly assure the US that no harm will come to their economic interests, Taiwan AND India would be on their own.

Japan and South Korea may be high-tech, but they are too weak to raise any voice against such a potential development. Their governments rely on the USA to exist. They would simply accept the fate and move on while Australia will be doing nothing except more guarded patrols of its waters.

The biggest victims would be us and the Taiwanese; unless our Babus grow some brains and create an alternative military pact with Vietnam and Taiwan of a three-front attack if one is attacked.

Wishful thinking but someone has to plan it. Otherwise, we are headed for a big, big problem.

Pact with Vietnam and Taiwan? Lol. Nope. India would never get pulled into that shitstorm.
What India will do is hold its 2 fronts. That’s all. No other options.

whether it builds its own planes or not,India needs to buy a ton of planes, equipment, drones etc. no time for playing around.

 

[Love Charger]

Pact with Vietnam and Taiwan? Lol. Nope. India would never get pulled into that shitstorm.
What India will do is hold its 2 fronts. That’s all. No other options.

whether it builds its own planes or not,India needs to buy a ton of planes, equipment, drones etc. no time for playing around.

Completely agreed , all those nations have only one front aka china.
Here we have 2 fronts , it could have been. 3 front but thanks to one woman called indira gandhi we only have to fight a two front war.

 

[Sridhar_TN]

India might as well go in for another emergency purchase of 36 rafales, snipers, sigs, apaches etc.
both the fronts are heating up at the same time.

 

[Tshering22]

Well if all that somehow happens, it would be great. But I do not believe that John Chinaman will actually make any serious moves towards Taiwan.

Let's assume that they do and even somehow manage to take it, what is the point when they can't hold them?

China takes Taiwan...takes about 3 days (if that). OK, great. Now every China flagged vessel on the sea is going to be sunk or ceased. China loses its number 1 trading partner (50% of China's trade is with the US...50 fucking percent). Every slant eyed Chink in the US and the West is now experiencing REAL systemic racism, if not outright interned.

So their spies are fucked, and the US is probably sabotaging the fuck out of them, such as their dams, or poisoning their crops, plus USA no longer sends them food and they don't produce enough to feed themselves. A nation of a billion Chinks that had a taste of a good life are suddenly stone age poor again.

Then the civil unrest and wars start. A billion Chinks killing each other.

No, the harmful consequences of waging a war against Taiwan is much more than the potential rewards.

Are you so naive to think that US will sacrifice 50% of its trade for some tiny island that was also manned by Chinese? It is just a political tool.

Please avoid using the word Chink - it is not something I'd appreciate as it is used by some morons for my people as well despite we being Indians. I never faced it really, but many of my friends have. Don't want to bring back unpleasant memories.

Mark my words; the US won't do shit about Taiwan takeover except issue warnings and a few ceremonial sanctions against some CCP members - that's it.

 

[Tshering22]

India might as well go in for another emergency purchase of 36 rafales, snipers, sigs, apaches etc.
both the fronts are heating up at the same time.

Indian defence purchases are handicapped by babus. Without declaring a national emergency, nothing will move in time, quantity or quality in case a war breaks out.

 

[asianobserve]

You know. the CCP is known to do something least expected for quite some time. The creation of artificial islands in the South China Sea; the sudden sneak attack on 20 Indian soldiers; flying routine spy UAVs in Taiwanese ADIZ, et al.

Right now, everyone is expecting them to send PLAN marines on amphibious assault missions against Taiwanese forces. However, what would the world do if:

1- PLA was to directly revert to using long-range artillery and rocket forces?
2- Use their satellite network to target critical government buildings with long-range cruise missiles and conventional ballistic missiles?

Both these attacks could be against the Taiwanese parliament, presidential palace, stock market building, Taiwanese military GHQ, and military factories that manufacture weapons?

No one has discussed this scenario at all; the world would be too shocked for a week at least, giving PLA the time to enter a leaderless Taiwan.

Thoughts here?

Shelling Taiwanese government installations from afar will not result in the disappearance of the Taiwanese government or military victory. It will most likely have the contrary effect, the strengthening of the Taiwanese resolve for indepence, a no going back to moment for them. Even those who are vascilating on this issue will likely swing completely for independence once they see dead, injured and bloodied Taiwanese officials and civilians. Second, shelling government buildings from afar will not give China any military advantage. Instead, the PLA will lose the element of surprise and will allow the Taiwanese and allies to prepare for the invasion. Third, doing so will most likely result in China losing 90% of World trade in an instant. The international community will not stand idly by while China destroys 80 years of effort to prevent WW2 type of wars. And not even China can tolerate that kind of isolation. Fourth, a lot of volunteers from other countries like the US, Hongkong, Japan, even the Philippines will most likely flood Taiwan to help defend it against the expected Chinese invasion.

In the final analysis, no doubt China has the vast advantage over Taiwan but as long as the US, Japan, India, Australia, UK, Philippines, and other countries support it Taiwan can weather China's pressure and more importantly China can be effectively deterred from doing more drastic measures.

 

[asianobserve]

Are you so naive to think that US will sacrifice 50% of its trade for some tiny island that was also manned by Chinese? It is just a political tool.

Please avoid using the word Chink - it is not something I'd appreciate as it is used by some morons for my people as well despite we being Indians. I never faced it really, but many of my friends have. Don't want to bring back unpleasant memories.

Mark my words; the US won't do shit about Taiwan takeover except issue warnings and a few ceremonial sanctions against some CCP members - that's it.

I'm of the view that US will have no choice but to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese military aggression. No less than the future of the World order that the US has championed since the end of WW2 and more directly, US' power, are at stake in that case.

 

[asianobserve]

Right now US boots are already on the ground in Taiwan. It does look like the US has already learned how to deal with aggressive and opportunistic powers. Mere expressions of support are green lights for them.

 

[Tshering22]

Shelling Taiwanese government installations from afar will not result in the disappearance of the Taiwanese government or military victory. It will most likely have the contrary effect, the strengthening of the Taiwanese resolve for indepence, a no going back to moment for them. Even those who are vascilating on this issue will likely swing completely for independence once they see dead, injured and bloodied Taiwanese officials and civilians. Second, shelling government buildings from afar will not give China any military advantage.

Instead, the PLA will lose the element of surprise and will allow the Taiwanese and allies to prepare for the invasion. Third, doing so will most likely result in China losing 90% of World trade in an instant. The international community will not stand idly by while China destroys 80 years of effort to prevent WW2 type of wars. And not even China can tolerate that kind of isolation. Fourth, a lot of volunteers from other countries like the US, Hongkong, Japan, even the Philippines will most likely flood Taiwan to help defend it against the expected Chinese invasion.

In the final analysis, no doubt China has the vast advantage over Taiwan but as long as the US, Japan, India, Australia, UK, Philippines, and other countries support it Taiwan can weather China's pressure, and more importantly China can be effectively deterred from doing more drastic measures.

You misunderstand the scenario that I have assumed here; the objective of PLA would not be just to straddle over and capture the island. It would be to employ terror tactics to scare the opposition into submission. China is well aware of their troops' performance in a war where the enemy shoots back, and if anything, their recent poor performance in the Himalayas has reaffirmed their faith in using any means necessary to secure their objective. Name me one UN convention that they have respected. Not a single one.

Taiwan is already prepared as much as it can within its limited means; but if PLA were to take out the top leadership in a missile strike, that would mean a leaderless Taiwan. Basically like a military-sanctioned terror attack. Think about it - for one week there are no incursions by PLAAF or PLANAF. People remain guarded but life continues as usual. However, while the Taiwanese parliament is in session, PLA rocket forces launch a full-scale barrage of long-range missiles against the parliament building. Everyone inside is either critically injured or dead, both ruling and opposition parties.

That would leave much of the country in a state of chaos as the military takes control. But the entire process of taking control takes time no matter how fast. Not to mention, the mass panic caused in Taipei. This is all the window the PLAN and PLA need to mount an invasion.

Your notion of expecting volunteers is quite unrealistic; do you really think that Japan, the Philippines, the USA, Vietnam, Australia, etc. would send troops? How do you expect these countries to convince their people? What will the respective leaders tell families - that they are fighting another country's war?

China is so integrated with every single ASEAN + US economy that sanctioning them would cripple their own economies causing large-scale panic, especially after the pandemic. What you are talking about could happen if the invasion were to happen 3-4 years from now. But if it is next week, there is little anyone would do.

 

[asianobserve]

You misunderstand the scenario that I have assumed here; the objective of PLA would not be just to straddle over and capture the island. It would be to employ terror tactics to scare the opposition into submission. China is well aware of their troops' performance in a war where the enemy shoots back, and if anything, their recent poor performance in the Himalayas has reaffirmed their faith in using any means necessary to secure their objective. Name me one UN convention that they have respected. Not a single one.

Taiwan is already prepared as much as it can within its limited means; but if PLA were to take out the top leadership in a missile strike, that would mean a leaderless Taiwan. Basically like a military-sanctioned terror attack. Think about it - for one week there are no incursions by PLAAF or PLANAF. People remain guarded but life continues as usual. However, while the Taiwanese parliament is in session, PLA rocket forces launch a full-scale barrage of long-range missiles against the parliament building. Everyone inside is either critically injured or dead, both ruling and opposition parties.

That would leave much of the country in a state of chaos as the military takes control. But the entire process of taking control takes time no matter how fast. Not to mention, the mass panic caused in Taipei. This is all the window the PLAN and PLA need to mount an invasion.

Your notion of expecting volunteers is quite unrealistic; do you really think that Japan, the Philippines, the USA, Vietnam, Australia, etc. would send troops? How do you expect these countries to convince their people? What will the respective leaders tell families - that they are fighting another country's war?

China is so integrated with every single ASEAN + US economy that sanctioning them would cripple their own economies causing large-scale panic, especially after the pandemic. What you are talking about could happen if the invasion were to happen 3-4 years from now. But if it is next week, there is little anyone would do.

As I said that kind of terror tactic will have the contrary effect, strengthening Taiwanese resolve, the more direct involvement of US and allies (since China will be clearly the agressor), and the political and economic isolation of China from its most important trading partners.

As to blowback of sanctions, I think China's naked aggression will make the economic pain of isolating China bearable. It will accelerate the West's induatrial departure from China.

 

[Tshering22]

As I said that kind of terror tactic will have the contrary effect, strengthening Taiwanese resolve, the more direct involvement of US and allies (since China will be clearly the agressor), and the political and economic isolation of China from its most important trading partners.

Well, I certainly hope that all the countries are prepared for it. The CCP is a rogue regime that can take any measures necessary to get what it wants.

 

[asianobserve]

Well, I certainly hope that all the countries are prepared for it. The CCP is a rogue regime that can take any measures necessary to get what it wants.

I hope so too. If China will go unpunished in that scenario of yours then you and I have bigger problems.

 

[HitmanBlood]

China already said that any attempt by Taiwan to change their name from "republic of china" to "republic of taiwan" or to formalize independence is a declaration of war.

Plus, America is a paper eagle. Over the last decade, It has lost wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria. The head of its military was literally just discovered to be in kahoots with China.

Despite all that, I think the answer is No. Simply because it's in literally no one's interest to have a war. China would have to initiate the war and would incur huge sanctions and general condemnation despite all their propaganda. Even if they only occupy Taiwan (and that's a big if, because if the US gets involved, they'd be fighting a naval war with a country with 10 times their strength at sea, albeit spread across the globe, and would need to launch the largest naval invasion since D-Day probably without air superiority) there would be huge international repercussions.

Their reward would be a PR disaster that would galvanize the rest of East Asia against them, provoke Japan into rearming, and lead to sanctions that would crush their economy.

The US and China are each other's largest trading partners; just because they're ostensibly ideological enemies doesn't mean they're going to fight a war which would destroy both their economies and imperil their geopolitical interests. American politicians need to rail about how terrible China is to make people accept the fact that their biggest economic partner is an evil totalitarian dictatorship and Chinese leaders need to rail about how terrible the US is to undermine the efforts of the moronic hardliners who actually want a retarded war.

As I have mentioned in my previous posts, Taiwan is Kashmir of China. If Xi captures Taiwan, it would elevate his status within CCP to near Mao level. In China CCP will be even more powerful domestically. As Chinese economy is cooling off such jingoist move will stroke nationalism sentiments in China. Also Taiwan has treasure trove of technology which will cement China as a near monopoly in certain technology field.

Also after fall of Taiwan, other Asian countries will try to appease Chinese. They will become a defacto Super power in Asia. I can even see Indian babus start to negotiate safety with post Taiwan, China.

USA's role from now on is always going to be defensive in context of China. USA is a declining power. They have major economic problems at home. They have almost lost all of their manufacturing capabilities to China. USA's fortune 500 companies rely heavily on Chinese market. Even Hollywood movies are now dependent on Chinese market.

A US China war will devastate already declining American economy. This will create further internal problems within USA. This will destroy the current two party system in America. This system is bread and butter of American deep state and corrupt businessmen.

Therefore I can imagine a scenario where USA deep state and China comes into an agreement.

China opens their market a little more to certain US companies. China sides with US on middle eastern issues and even throws Russia under the bus. In return for this favours US allows them to take over Taiwan without any resistance.

I can imagine a Taliban or North Vietnamese type situation. China invading Taiwan and US crying publicly but on ground they turn a blind eye. Joe Biden gives a strongly worded statement and 1 year later business is back as usual.

To be a superpower you have to not only have capabilities but also have to demonstrate intent. For China Taiwan is perfect oppertunity to demonstrate their intent. For USA this is another oppertunity to save face and continue the facade of Superpower.

 

[Marliii]

For anyone thinking china is gonna invade Taiwan or terror bomb them to submission have to look at these facts
1.Taiwan has an military up to 160000 troops and upto 1.6 million reservists in any case of war Taiwan can easily add upto half a million troops to their nations defence.
2.its an island of up to 35,808 km sq.imagine the entire indian and pakistan military fighting in an island the size of kerala instead of entire LOC during war period.concentration of troops and armor per area and as an island both sides cannot withdraw much is gonna be apocalyptic.
3.china would have to conduct an operation much larger than D day to even establish a beach head.the allies had full air,naval superiority and axis powers only had 6 lakh troops in full of france and it was even fewer in the beach heads and was still could nt link the beaches or reach their objectives and were almost thrown back to the sea. Taiwan has even fewer beaches that can be used for amphibious assault so Taiwan will basically turn them into kill houses.
4.Taiwan has a population of upto 2.6 crore in a small area.just think how the PLA is gonna fight the taiwanese forces and manage of a local insurgency and control a large hostile population ?
5.china would have to atleast poor up to a 1 million troops to the island to successfully capture it
6.any chinese attempt to even assemble a force would be seen by the taiwanese right away so china will not even get a surprise like the allies did in DDay.
7.china will at all means conquer Taiwan but the casualties would be astronomical for both sides.
China is gonna get sucked dry and battle of verdun will look like a picnic to these battles.