Are you so naive to think that US will sacrifice 50% of its trade for some tiny island that was also manned by Chinese? It is just a political tool.
Please avoid using the word Chink - it is not something I'd appreciate as it is used by some morons for my people as well despite we being Indians. I never faced it really, but many of my friends have. Don't want to bring back unpleasant memories.
Mark my words; the US won't do shit about Taiwan takeover except issue warnings and a few ceremonial sanctions against some CCP members - that's it.
You are not understanding. I will explain in more details. You might find it boring, but it will give you a picture of who stands to lose what if trade is cut off over Taiwan.
50% of CHINA's trade is with the USA, NOT the other way around.
You ask, "Will US sacrifice 50% of its trade for some tiny island?", first off, like I said 50% of USA'S trade is not with China. And secondly I ask you, "Will China sacrifice 50% of its trade for some tiny island?"
Exports to the US are a larger percentage of China’s economy at $550 billion annually than the meager $197 Billion the $22 Trillion US economy exports to China. People act like companies aren’t already moving from China to East Asian countries because China is already becoming too expensive to manufacture in.
If the US cuts off trade with China, China will suddenly lose a huge portion of their export market. A lot of factories would probably need to shut down, and there probably would be substantial unemployment. Also because the US won’t buy, other countries who buy from China (which is a lot of countries) could demand lower prices, and wages in Chinese factories would probably decrease.
There will be a decline in growth in the USA too, but the USA CAN absorb this decline unlike China. Just consider where both countries are starting from in terms of per capita GDP.
America, as an advanced economy, is largely decoupled from imports and exports. There is a general assumption that advanced ‘strong’ economies are naturally ‘doing strong business’ in export/import. The US is far outside of the top 100 countries in terms of imports, with something around 14 percent of its GDP being driven by imports. As a percent of GDP, exports only make up 11–12% of GDP.
China is the country of origin for only 22% of US imports (so ~22% of a piece of pie thats only 14% of US GDP). Interestingly, China is heavily driven by exports, with approximately 19-20% of its GDP being Export driven - and 17–18% of its GDP being Import driven. If you’re noticing that between 38% and 40% of Chinas GDP is wholly dependent on trade, you would be right. And the US accounts for 20% of all exports from China, and around 8% of the total imports into China.
With a 14.7 trillion GDP, just working out the percentages (with some fudging around years, as China is not great at releasing numbers), this means that China has about 3 trillion on the line in GDP in exports total , and 600 bln on the line in exports to the US, or about 4.25 percent of GDP. If America couldn’t export to China, I think about 2% of its GDP would be on the line.
If the US either allows or executes a blockade of China-bound trade through the Malacca Strait, then China will have 80% of its energy ‘at risk’. After the alienation of Australia and the embargo of Australian coal, China is already seeing massive energy disruptions, and Russia simply does not produce enough surplus energy, nor do trade routes and pipelines exist, to replace middle eastern energy and Australian coal. And China can’t either, not unless they open up oceans of shale gas and new coal sources (recall, most capacity in China is from coal burning, and you can’t just ‘switch’)
And while China may be able to contest the strait of Taiwan and parts of the south china sea, I find it very, very doubtful they could contest the US in the Strait of Malacca - by the numbers they can not project enough force to open that waterway. Then add to the fact that the price of container shipping would skyrocket if China militarized either the South China Sea conflict or the Taiwan conflict, thus driving a stake through 40% of Chinese GDP.
The US would not lose much if China and the US ceased trading all together, maybe a short recession, or 1–2 ‘points’ off annual growth. In China, it would be a disaster.
Almost all of China's economy is reliant on trade with other countries. If they start a conflict with Taiwan and in the most extreme scenario, were globally embargoed, China is back to "Great Leap Forward" levels of fucked. The recent rapid growth is build on lax lending laws similar to pre-1991 Japan (after which their economy crashed).
USA has a much stronger basis for their economy thanks to a big head start on China and the largest tract of arable land on earth.
As to your point about USA won't help Taiwan, why exactly do you think that? What exactly makes you so confident in the belief that the USA would simply abandon Taiwan and not try to milk a war for all it's worth? Have you forgotten the influence of the War Party in DC?
In any case, I will give you recent statements which might indicate US policy to Taiwan. Even before Biden took the oath of office, he invited Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States to attend his inauguration. It was the first time that honor had been given since the United States switched diplomatic relations to the PRC.
Not even Trump or George W. Bush, both staunch supporters of Taiwan, did something so bold that it bordered on outright disdain for Beijing’s insistence that there is only one China and that Taiwan is part of that country.
A more recent comment by Biden has heightened Beijing’s suspicions. When ABC News reporter George Stephanopoulos asked him about possible damage to US credibility after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden dismissed that danger, stating that Washington’s reliability with respect to the security of allies should not be doubted. "
We made a sacred commitment to Article Five that if in fact anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond," he emphasized. Biden then added: "Same with Japan, same with South Korea,
SAME WITH TAIWAN."
Which is why you have seen another arms sale to Taipei, and the increased pace of US warships transiting the Taiwan Strait. There is no way the US would simply let China take over Taiwan and do nothing after investing in them so much.
www.forbes.com
