Ray,
A little off topic but I feel that all these infiltrations and operations against India is not just coincidence. All these are going on a very planned manner and indicating towards something big is coming. May be in shape of another Kargil or another war. I would like your views on this point.
Infiltration has been a mode that Pakistan has been practising for years
Op Gibraltar possibly is the first of its acts.
It is said that the 1987 election, in which Farook Abdullah won is the catalyst that started of real militancy/ terrorism in Kashmir. The Muslim United Front (MUF) accused that the elections have been rigged. The insurgency in the valley increased in momentum from this point on, given the consistent failure of democracy and limited employment opportunities. The MUF candidate Mohammad Yousuf Shah (later called Syed Salahuddin, chief of militant outfit Hizb-ul-Mujahedin) felt not only cheated in the rigged elections, but also was imprisoned. His election aides called the HAJY group -Abdul Hamid Shaikh, Ashfaq Majid Wani, Javed Ahmed Mir and Mohammed Yasin Malik joined the JKLF.
Amanullah Khan who took refuge in Pakistan, after being deported from England began directing operations across the LC and used young disaffected Kashmiris in the Valley such as the HAJY group by recruiting them into the JKLF.
Infiltration and terrorism took a new meaning but had not reached the crescendo. New Delhi took it in its stride without realising the gravity and effect of these infiltration that it would have on the Nation.
It is only after the end of the Afghanistan Action against the Soviets in 1989, when many battled hardened' terrorists found themselves ''unemployed", they were funnelled into Kashmir to wage
jihad did terrorism become a serious threat to India. New Delhi awoke from their slumber.
Thereafter, what happened and is happening requires no recalling.
In short, infiltration was always there, but the seriousness of such infiltration affecting the Nation has now become alarming; Kargil is a case in point of the extreme threat where the Pakistan military can take recourse to capturing territory under the cover of it being 'spontaneous' outburst of 'non State actors'.
The moot point of what is happening in the Keran Sector is too early to judge if it an attempt like Kargil. Not much of information is available to draw that conclusion.
However, it has to be conceded that in this Keran Sector, unlike Kargil, which has no cover, either along the spines or the valleys, and so movement could be detected at a distance, Keran Sector has forest cover and is more rugged and so movement is difficult to detect and so is of advantage to those who wish to create mischief. And so the combat will be more fierce and messy. Like Kargil roads are practically non existent and tracks are few and most are not motorable.
Whatever it maybe, if the push converts to a shove, then the IA will ensure that they shove well and hard.
Are bigger things to come, as you sugggest?
Possible.
History repeats itself, as they say.
What happened after the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan wherein terrorists found themselves unemployed and were reassigned to Kashmir, the same can happen once the Americans withdraw from Afghanistan.
We have to be on our guard and the LC should be picquetted further with more motorable roads being cut through initially by Army field engineers and later by the Border Road.
Artillery deployment areas should also be constructed by cutting down a wee bit of forest and the mountains hewed to accommodate the guns!