Shortlisting, Shortly
Prospects are increasing that India will sustain four offerings in its $12-billion Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program but soon eliminate the MiG-35 and F"‘16IN from the field.
The downselect, which industry officials had widely expected would not take place until after February's Aero India show in Bangalore, could become official as early as next month, program watchers indicate. The actual announcement of the decision, however, is still not expected until after the air show. Remaining in the battle to build at least 126 fighters would be the Saab Gripen, the only single-engine offering, along with the Eurofighter Typhoon, Dassault Rafale and Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.
It has appeared likely for some time that the MiG-35 would be dropped from the running, and in recent days the F-16I's elimination has also begun to seem inevitable. A drawback of the F-16, according to Indian air force officials, is that Pakistan also operates a version of the fighter. The Indian government has consistently expressed its frustration and irritation at Washington's continued supply of weapons—most notably more F-16s—to Islamabad, weapons India believes only serve to close the conventional military gap between the two countries.
U.S. industry officials insist, however, that while India publicly expresses misgivings about the U.S.-Pakistani relationship, it is quietly less opposed because it sees Washington's involvement as a stabilizing force.
Furthermore, a Lockheed Martin official insists, "we have heard nothing that would suggest the Indian government would eliminate either U.S. competitor from the competition because of U.S. engagement with Pakistan. On the contrary, we are very confident, based on the results of the field evaluation trials, that the F-16IN Super Viper is fully compliant with India's requirements."
Industry observers note that recent opinion pieces in the Indian press, which suggest that the MMRCA competition be scrapped and replaced with a purchase of 200 Lockheed Martin F-35As, could indicate that the company is already looking beyond the competition. The F-35 is not in play for the air force requirement, although both the F-35C and the F-35B are officially on offer to the Indian navy.
Speculation in India has put the Eurofighter and Rafale ahead in the bidding, but Indian air force officials dismiss that. Moreover, the Gripen and F/A-18E/F have an edge in terms of price, which may be gaining greater weight in the selection process.
The Gripen appears to have found indirect support from the government. The director of the Indian government's official air power think tank says the Gripen suits the service's requirements best. In a recent column, Air Commo.Jasjit Singh writes: "The choice that comes closest to the 'medium' multirole aircraft that the [Indian air force] has been seeking since a decade ago is the [Indian version of the Gripen NG]."
A great deal of political diplomacy to push through a deal—as well as furious back-channel lobbying—will undoubtedly occur in the next few months. Following the visit by U.S. President Barack Obama last week, the heads of state of Russia and France are scheduled to be hosted by New Delhi soon. Indian air force chief Air Chief Marshal PV Naik has indicated that the government will make a type selection by July, although a decision could come closer to the end of 2011.
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