LOC, LAC & IB warfare

Status
Not open for further replies.

Bornubus

Chodi Bhakt & BJPig Hunter
Senior Member
Joined
Oct 13, 2015
Messages
7,494
Likes
17,198
Can we start a war gaming thread about what a potential Indo Chinese war because of the current standoff look like? What will be the Chinese strategy, how far will they be willing to escalate, which other countries will get involved, will nukes be used etc..
@Kunal Biswas made an informative thread somewhere. Several Han members also contributed in that thread.
 

pankaj nema

Senior Member
Joined
Oct 1, 2009
Messages
10,300
Likes
38,698
Country flag
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/no-let-up-in-loc-ceasefires/article19198627.ece

At least 22 violations witnessed in the last two weeks amid India-China face-off

Even as attention is focussed on the stand-off between India and China in Sikkim, the India-Pakistan border continues to boil with daily Cease Fire Violations (CFV).

In the last two weeks, there have been at least 22 CFVs of which over nine occurred from June 27-30 when the news of the stand-off between the Armies of India and China came out and both sides were engaged in a diplomatic showdown. In contrast for the whole month of June last year, there were only 10 CFVs on the LoC.

“There have been continuous CFVs on the LoC in the last few days, but there was no contact or infiltration attempts during them,” a senior Army officer said.

This is a slight departure in trend as in the last few months, since summer set in, there has been an uptick in CFVs as there were desperate attempts by militants to sneak across the Line of Control.

Cover to infiltrators

Normally, the Pakistan Army resorts to CFV to provide cover fire to the infiltrators.


The infiltrations were in itself an attempt to increase the number of militants in the Valley as the security forces eliminated several in a series of targeted operations.

So far this year, the number of CFVs has crossed 200 while for the corresponding period last year it was 14; it was 228 for the whole of 2016.

Similarly, while 140 terrorists were killed in 2016 both on the LoC and in the Valley, this year till June the number has crossed 80.

Forces on alert

With the end of the holy month of Ramazan and the beginning of the 40-day Amarnath Yatra, security forces are gearing for a major spike in CFVs, infiltration attempts as well as violence in the Valley.

July 8 also marks one year since the killing of local Hizbul Mujahideen commander Burhan Wani which had plunged the Valley into unending violence. Security forces believe there will be attempts to create mass protests this week.
 

rone

Regular Member
Joined
Dec 23, 2016
Messages
938
Likes
3,055
Country flag
paki is going to have tough days ahead ..army will getting more battle harden day by day ..short warm up match for Indian army in 2 front war...
 

Screambowl

Ghanta Senior Member?
Senior Member
Joined
Jan 1, 2015
Messages
7,950
Likes
7,910
Country flag
No need, highly discourage.

Bhutan is one of the happiest nations in the world. Very good development index and really good in agro industries, employment and health.
They are doing a lot of things related to green energy and afforestation and saving the environment.

You should keep them as Switzerland. You don't need a visa, visit and enjoy the tradition. But bringing them to Indian Union is like kicking them 1000 miles away and reducing their development to dirt. They wouldn't like it at all. they love their Kingdom and the King Queen. They will never accept this.

Influx of Bihari and unemployed bangalis will increase and it will soon become a underdeveloped nation.






What if Bhutan joins the Indian Union?
Just putting an idea out there:-

What if, hypothetically, Bhutan simply decides (through a referendum) that its better to become an Indian state and enjoy Indian protection rather than have their borders nibbled away at by the Chinese? I know they might not do so because form a security point of view, being neutral is better and joining India puts them squarely in the middle of the Indo-China conflict (and they just chose sides and lost all protection as a neutral state). Nonetheless, if for some other reason, what if they join India, maybe initially as a protectorate (like the Kingdom of Sikkim)?

For one, that would require a few new formations (perhaps an entire Corps) to be raised in the Indian Army for the defense of Bhutan. More infrastructure might be needed. But most importantly, it would throw the Chinese out of balance as their strategy of endangering the Siliguri corridor would fall flat on its face with Indian Army surrounding them from 3 sides at Yadong. The Indian Army would now be well within its rights to protect Doklam plateau.

This will turn the tables as now PLA approach to Yadong would be in peril. More importantly, the Siliguri corridor problem would be history. All in all, it would be a good deal, although China will most likely stir up a lot of trouble. We may have to escalate to a short local war in Sikkim and Bhutan, and we might loose a lot of territory if this is not done right, in a covert manner before the referendum and announcement about Bhutan joining India are made. The moment Chinese realise what we are up to, they will start forcible land grabbing and we have to be ready with a Corps to defend Bhutanese territories with a sizable presence in Bhutan (or atleast a good road network allowing for us to move a lot of troops swiftly to Doklam plateau and other disputed regions in Bhutan). Point is, the infrastructure for movement upto non-disputed areas needs to be in place and a large Indian formation assembled (on the India-Bhutan border). It should be able to move swiftly and establish a dominating presence directly in the disputed areas with a speed that the Chinese might not be able to match. Element of surprise, though difficult to achieve, is essential here to minimise casualties in the short conflict that will follow. Maybe we can place the 17 Mountain Strike Corps in this role, with ample airlift support from the Airforce. The Chinese should not be able to perceive this move (of Bhutan joining India, although they will be able to decipher that the increased Indian presence in Sikkim and the Indo-Bhutanese highways near border areas are elements of some Indian strategy, and will likely increase their presence beforehand) befire the announcement is made. By time the Chinese realise what is up, they should be staring at Indian troops on Doklam.

We will also need to elicit a favorable response from the international community. Maybe we need a more deft and devious political leadership to make this happen, by making it a long term objective and unleashing a relevant policy to make this happen, all in a covert manner. If Modi gets this in his head, and stays in power throughout next decade, this might be possible by 2030.
 

Kunal Biswas

Member of the Year 2011
Ambassador
Joined
May 26, 2010
Messages
31,122
Likes
41,042
We are not getting that because its not for our usage ..

He is talking about using UCAV not those useless UAV s and Quadcopters which someone can buy in amazon these days ..We need Predator s both to hit the paki post and also to take the jihadi camps ..But sadly we are getting Guardian Naval surveillance drones ...:facepalm:
 

Kshatriya87

Senior Member
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
Messages
10,136
Likes
16,040
Country flag
J&K govt data shows: Firing across LoC has limited impact, fails to deter Pakistan

FIRING ACROSS the Line of Control (LoC) has escalated dramatically since India’s strikes on jihadist training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in September, classified data obtained by The Indian Express has revealed. The data suggests that the policy of “massive retaliation” for cross-border firing set in place in 2014 is failing to deter the Pakistan Army from harrying Indian counter-infiltration defences on the LoC.

The data, compiled by the J&K government, shows that there have been 124 exchanges of fire from January to June 21, 2017 — all but 11 along the LoC and international border in the Jammu sector, under the control of the Nagrota-based XVI Corps.

In contrast, there were only five exchanges of fire in the same period of 2016, before India’s cross-LoC strikes sparked a wave of assaults using mortar and machine guns, as well as ambushes targeting Indian patrols by so-called Pakistani Border Action Teams, or special forces units mixed with irregulars. Localised but lethal skirmishes now form the core of a grim war of attrition on the border in Jammu — a region with near-zero jihadist infiltration — as soldiers fight to avenge past attacks, or establish tactical advantage for their posts and patrol routes in anticipation of future ones.

The latest fighting, sparked by the June 23 ambush which claimed the lives of two soldiers, is reported to be continuing intermittently, with shelling at the end of the month claiming the life of Naseem Akhter, a Poonch resident, and Abdul Wahab, living across the LoC in Nakyal. Kashmir, guarded by the XV Corps, is seeing the LoC regularly probed by jihadist infiltrators, the raison d’etre for aggressive retaliation — but here, there is little fighting between the two armies.

Incidents of firing across the LoC have risen steadily since 2012, when 79 were registered, to 236 in 2013, 226 in 2014, and 279 in 2015, according to data gathered by the J&K government. The first six months of 2016 were quiet, but overall numbers rose sharply to 227 after the strikes.

The J&K government’s data, based on direct observation by intelligence units, reflects significant fire exchanges which may pose a risk to civilians, rather than all violations of the ceasefire India and Pakistan entered into in 2013, which include relatively minor incidents.

Lok Sabha replies provided by the government show that those incidents have also escalated, from 347 in 2013, to 583 in 2014, 405 in 2015 and 449 in 2016 — again showing that India’s more muscular posture has so far failed to deter the Pakistan Army.

“The enemy has realised that times have changed and their old habits will not be tolerated… People know my intentions,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi had, following the first cross-border clashes of his tenure. The government had authorised forces to use disproportionate force against Pakistani military fire, and declined to engage in dialogue while the fighting continued — a break with past patterns.

Major-General Ashok Narula, the Indian Army’s chief spokesperson, said in May that “punitive fire assaults across the Line of Control are being undertaken by the Indian army”. He released a video that showed Indian artillery destroying temporary bunkers on a tree-covered mountain, shot, military sources said, on May 9, a week after the beheading of two Indian soldiers by a Border Action Team.

In 2003, when India and Pakistan agreed on their unwritten ceasefire, 2,045 exchanges of fire were recorded, which claimed the lives of 59 Indian troops and 40 civilians.

“I believe these fire-exchanges are serving absolutely no demonstrable strategic purpose. Their only purpose is to fuel a certain nationalist posturing in both India and Pakistan,” said Ajai Sahni, director, Institute of Conflict Management in New Delhi.

The data shows six Indian soldiers have been killed in the fire exchanges so far this year, and 12 injured, while 10 were killed and 56 injured in 2016.

“It is unimportant if more Pakistanis were killed or Indians. The loss of a single Indian soldier’s life without a strategic aim is a criminal waste,” said Sahni.

The firing across the LoC, interestingly, comes at a time of relatively low infiltration. Even though the Indian Army has reported multiple infiltration attempts along the LoC in Kashmir this summer, Home Minister Rajnath Singh announced that infiltration in January-June 2017 has been 45 per cent lower than in the same period of 2016.

“Largely, the firing on the Line of Control is taking place because both sides have become locked in a tit-for-tat cycle of retaliation, with neither willing to back off,” said a senior military official.

For the Pakistan Army, continuing to hit back is of critical importance in the wake of last year’s cross-LoC strikes, to demonstrate that it is willing to willing to risk escalation despite the weakness of its military position.

Estimated to deploy some 200,000-225,000 troops along the LoC, the Indian Army’s XV and XVI Corps have overwhelming numerical superiority against Pakistan.

Pakistan’s X Corps, made up of the 23 Infantry Division, 12 Infantry Division, 19 Infantry Division and Force Command Gilgit-Baltistan, only has some 100,000-125,000 troops, experts believe.

General Asim Bajwa, Pakistan’s Army chief, who came to office soon after the cross-LoC strikes, placed Kashmir high on his agenda, amid fears in his command that India could react to a future terrorist strike with a larger-scale attack in the Neelam valley.

The Pakistan Army chief, in visits to the Haji Pir sector in April, the Kel sector in March, and the shelling-hit Bhimber sector in December and February, is believed to have ordered commanders to harry Indian defences, rather than back down in the face of artillery assault.

Indian commanders, in turn, fearing that further escalation could hamper their counter-infiltration posture and render maintenance of the LoC fence difficult, have resisted the temptation to deploy heavier-calibre artillery.
 

Tarun Kumar

Regular Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2016
Messages
942
Likes
1,047
On LOC its a proven fact that nothing works better than 155mm artillery to stop Pak army as well as infiltrators. And for that we need quick deployment of dhanush howitzers. A better option would be HIMARS type truck mounted rocket launchers which can be moved easily from point to point to destroy Paki positions but we dont have those.Defensive outlook will not work on LOC.
 

Project Dharma

meh
Senior Member
Joined
Oct 4, 2016
Messages
4,836
Likes
10,863
Country flag
What is the state of Indian armor in Ladakh? Are we still at a disadvantage compared to the Chinese? How do the T72s that were stationed there recently compare to the Chinese tanks that they are likely to deploy?

Is the Nag anti tank missile a deterrent against an armored push?
 

airtel

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 25, 2015
Messages
3,430
Likes
7,815
Country flag

Hiranyaksha

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 5, 2017
Messages
2,098
Likes
4,515
Country flag
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top