Up to 900 Rafale produced? A point on prospects
La question est de savoir à quels pays le Rafale pourrait être vendu? Nous nous sommes alors livré à un jeu à mi-chemin entre analyse et pronostics.
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Bruno ETCHENICwe: June 07, 2021In:
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At the announcement of its fifth export customer and nearly 324 aircraft ordered in total, the question is to know, potentially, to which countries the Rafale could be sold and in what quantities? We then engaged in a game halfway between analysis and prognosis.
In 2015, after the surprise of the choice of Egypt followed by Qatar then India in 2016, the Rafale went in a few moments from the status of unsaleable aircraft to that of international success.
Five years later, in 2021, another prosperous year for the French industry with Egypt announcing an additional order for 30 aircraft (second country to recommend after the option exercised by Qatar in 2017), Greece with 18 aircraft followed by Croatia, which has just announced that it has selected the Rafale for a contract including the supply of 12 second-hand aircraft from the French Air Force and Space. These three successes could quickly be followed by other good news since persistent corridor noise comes from Indonesia and the Rafale is competing in two tenders located on the European continent, namely Switzerland and Finland.
Before embarking on the analysis, it is important to remember that the sale of combat aircraft is a strategic issue that can only be carried out under certain conditions. The supplier country and the client country will in fact sign a form of alliance which will commit the two countries over a period of time of the order of 30 to 40 years. Sales of fighter jets can therefore only occur when countries operate in similar geopolitical spheres of influence.
Number of Rafale already ordered (324)
France: 192
180 Rafale ordered so far, awaiting a fifth installment. 12 Rafale were ordered in 2021 to replace the planes taken from the French Air Force and Space fleet.
Egypt: 54
First export customer for the Rafale, Egypt ordered 24 Rafale in 2015, followed in 2021 by 30 additional aircraft.
Qatar: 36
Second export customer, Qatar ordered 24 Rafale in 2015, with an option for 12 additional aircraft. The option was exercised in 2017, bringing the total number of aircraft ordered to 36, with a new option for 36.
India: 36
After very long negotiations for the MMRCA tender for 126 planes which ended in a dead end, India ordered, from government to government, 36 planes. New orders are potentially to be expected.
Greece: 18
As part of the reinforcement of the Greek army against Turkey, Greece will receive 12 planes taken from the fleet of the AAE, as well as 6 new Rafale. Future orders are also expected. Aircraft taken from the AAE fleet are not taken into account in the total number of aircraft ordered. It is the first European country (and member of NATO) to join the Rafale club.
Croatia: 12
This is the surprise of this year. The second European country to choose the Rafale, this choice offers new perspectives. Indeed, this order opens the way for countries that potentially were only interested in Gripen, or even used US planes. If the AAE intends to part with other planes in order to standardize its Rafale fleet to more recent production standards, this could open the door to other “small” contracts.
Conclusion on sales made
With 324 planes ordered, almost half of which are exported (156), the Rafale program is now officially out of the rut in which it had been placed in the media, to prove to be a highly profitable program for French manufacturers. It is thus not far from 30 billion euros which irrigated the French economy, allowing the passage to maintain national sovereignty through a BITD (Industrial and Technological Base of Defense) in good health.
Very likely sales (132-154):
France: 30
The fifth Rafale production tranche for France should take place around 2024 for delivery between 2027 and 2030 according to this
Senate report .
Indonesia: 36-48
Announced as imminent, Indonesia's interests in the Rafale have been leaking in the press since 2015. The GIE Rafale is in negotiations with the Indonesian government, which has been confirmed by our defense minister,
Ms. Parly, as well as by
Mr. Trappier. , CEO of Dassault Aviation.
Switzerland: 30-40
Following Switzerland's choice in favor of Gripen in 2012, a scandal erupted when a summary of Arma Suisse's report was published which highlighted that the Gripen was not only the lowest rated aircraft of the three candidates, but that 'he was also the only one to have obtained a score below the required minimums (Rafale in first position followed by the Typhoon). As a direct consequence, the Gripen was excluded from the Air 2030 program (officially because they excluded non-operational aircraft) in which the EF-18 Super Hornet and the American F-35, the European Eurofighter Typhoon and the Rafale clash. French.
For almost 10 years, the changes promised in the Rafale program roadmap have all been achieved, which gives a considerable advantage against a Typhoon which has certainly evolved, but at a much slower pace (still no AESA operational and trolling air-to-surface capabilities). The Swiss policy seeming to be in favor of a European choice, it could very well be that the Rafale will be selected at the end of this call for tenders which should come to an end at the end of June.
India: 36
With a first order for 36 Rafale on the way to being fully delivered within a few months, India's needs are far from being met. As the attrition rate has been very high over the past 15 years, the Indian Air Force is unable to align the number of 42 squadrons it had set itself as a target. The aborted MMRCA tender included an initial requirement for 126 fighter jets, with an option for 63 jets, not counting the requirements of the Indian Navy.
The GIE Rafale has invested heavily locally, and the investment returns are the highest ever seen for a contract that is certainly important, but much more modest in view of the need. India's demand for a strong industrial return within the framework of Make In India is thus satisfied, which means that French manufacturers have much more than one foot in the door, a non-negligible political advantage when India has to again embark on an acquisition process. Because the question is not whether she will do it, but when. Despite COVID, tensions persist in the Himalayan foothills with China but also still with Pakistan. It is very likely that new orders will be placed in batches of 36 devices.
Conclusion of very likely sales
If we are to believe the persistent corridor noise, 2021 would be the auspicious new year for the Rafale program. If they materialize, the order book could number 108 to 130 aircraft just for export (around 28 Rafale France remains to be delivered), enough to ensure 4 years of production at full capacity, i.e. 3 aircraft produced every month.
potential sales (433):
Finland 64:
Call for tenders in which the Rafale appears as outsider, Finland is looking to replace its F-18 Hornets. In the competition, the Rafale faces the Gripen, the Typhoon, the Super Hornet as well as the F-35. The selection process is quite new in the sense that Finland has defined a global budget including the purchase but also the operation of the planes. After technical tests carried out in Finland in recent years, the Finnish Air Force has received different offers from competitors comprising a variable number of devices (at a constant budget, it is certain that there will not be the same number of F35 than of Gripen…). The Finnish Air Force then played several simulated war games to determine which would be the best choice. In view of the latest calls for tenders and the data available to us, there is no doubt that the Rafale will not fail in these exercises.Despite everything, once the technical elements have been validated, it will be up to the politician to make a choice. This is why the Rafale is considered an “outsider” in this market, in the face of the omnipotence of US foreign policy. The choice is expected to be revealed during the year 2021.
United Arab Emirates: 60
It was the hottest prospect in the 2009s, but it's been a cold shower ever since. Equipped with the most recent F-16 model at the time (block 60), but also with the best that could be done in France with a steroid-doped version of the Mirage 2000, the United Arab Emirates Air Force does not had no urgent need to order a Rafale which did not have much better to offer at the time. More than ten years later, the situation has changed somewhat. The Mirage 2000s are aging (the first thirty were bought in the 80s before being upgraded to the -9 standard) and the UAE's wish to have a double supply has not been denied. Although the UAE expects a lot from the US for F-35s, the Rafale has a special role to play here. Indeed,the F-16s are under permanent US surveillance (squadron and equipment almost combined with those of the US Air Force at Al Dhafra Air Base), while the Mirage 2000s are used independently and have been seen in Libya in particular, operating from Egyptian base. It is therefore very likely that the UAE, even if it manages to find favor in the eyes of the US administration for the purchase of the F-35, will also choose another aircraft, and France has an advantage, as as historical supplier.even if they manage to find favor in the eyes of the US administration for the purchase of F-35s, they also choose another aircraft, and France has an advantage, as a historical supplier.even if they manage to find favor in the eyes of the US administration for the purchase of F-35s, they also choose another aircraft, and France has an advantage, as a historical supplier.
Qatar: 36
Moving from a combat fleet of 12 Mirage 2000-5 to 24 Rafale in 2015, a number of commentators had stressed that the qualitative as well as the quantitative leap was important. What then to say when the Qatari also ordered 36 F-15s as well as 24 Eurofighter Typhoons, but also exercised their option for 12 additional Rafale. In total, therefore, 96 aircraft were ordered by this emirate surrounded by Saudi Arabia and which took a sudden turn, that of changing its foreign policy, by switching the funding of various armed groups to the equipment of its armed forces. When Qatar lifted the option provided for in the initial contract and relating to 12 Rafale in 2017, mention was made of an additional option for 36 aircraft.
Malaysia: 24
Become a major customer of France in recent years with the purchase of 12 H225M Caracal helicopters, 4 Airbus A-400Ms, as well as the sale of 2 Scorpene-type submarines (creating a submarine from scratch), the issue of purchasing fighter jets by the Malaysian Air Force remains central. Equipped with 8 out-of-age F-18 Hornets and Sukhoï 30 MKM with major availability problems, the Royal Malaysian Air Force was engaged in a call for tenders process called MRCA, not unlike the Indian MMRCA . If it does not appear that the Rafale acts as a favorite, links with France and India could favor this choice. For the moment, the finances of this state do not allow the rapid conclusion of this call for tenders, which has been rejected many times.
India: 128
In addition to the 36 Rafales already ordered and a probable additional order for 36 others, the needs of the Indian Air Force as well as the Indian Navy could reach up to 250 aircraft. In view of recent announcements by the Indian Navy for a redefinition of their needs, with a reorientation of a strategy based on the deployment of carrier battle groups towards an increase in the power of the submarine, we are counting on the potential of 200 devices to be acquired in total. By subtracting the 72 planes already counted elsewhere, this brings us to potential orders of up to 128 planes.
Peru: 12
Equipped with 19 Mig-29 and 12 Mirage 2000, some rumors have shown the country's interest in the Rafale. Recently, a FAP colonel
published a video , during an official speech on a subject unrelated to the acquisition of combat aircraft, accompanied by two models; one from Mirage 2000, the other from Rafale. The staging of this kind of video is usually pretty neat so that this kind of detail is not left to chance.
Iraq: 36
Having a very large army for years, the Iraqi Air Force is no more than a shadow of itself. After the very strong attrition linked to the two Gulf Wars, it was under the control of the United States that Iraq was able to acquire in 2011 a handful of F-16 (36) with degraded performance, as well as Korean FA-50, a multirole version derived from the T-50 advanced trainer aircraft, making it a light fighter aircraft. The purchase of non-US fighter jets would be a sign of a certain regained independence and would therefore be a strong political signal. Corridor rumors concerning Iraq's strong interest in the Rafale are not inconsistent, France having indeed been a historical supplier to the country. No clue on the other hand when to the quantity, which we estimate with a wet finger at 36 units.
Egypt: 46
In addition to the 54 Rafale already ordered by Egypt, the American site
Breaking Defense reports that according to well-placed sources Egypt would eventually target a fleet of 100 Rafale. If the figure may seem important, it does not seem extravagant compared to the size of the Egyptian air force which must renew part of its substantial fleet of combat aircraft.
France: 27
When the fifth Rafale production tranche is received, the Mirage 2000Ds will be at the end of their life, and the -5s will already be withdrawn from service. With the defense white paper target still set at 225 fighter jets, 15 aircraft would need to be ordered to achieve this figure. Mentioned at the microphone of BFM Business by Mr. Trappier, the French state should also compensate in the longer term for the sale to Croatia, which adds 12 planes.
Conclusion, 911 potential orders.
The GIE Rafale order book currently has 324 aircraft on firm orders, for which we consider very likely the sale of 132 to 154 additional aircraft in the short term and potentially up to 406 orders via consistent prospects. If at least half of the potential export contracts are signed, it will be a firm and definitive sign that the French fighter plane is a great success. In comparison, 601 Mirage 2000 were produced, a comparable number.
If these numbers materialize, they could result in several questions. The first would be the capacity of the production line to absorb these orders. As it stands, the industrial chain is sized to build up to a maximum of 3 Rafale per month. An increase in production is not possible without heavy investment in terms of production means. However, if French manufacturers are fully capable of producing most of the probable orders under discussion (Indonesia, Switzerland, Finland) within an acceptable time frame, any additional order would saturate production. This is why a production partially carried out in India, which some take a dim view, could on the contrary be beneficial to unlock other contracts.
With 156 planes sold for export against 151 for the Typhoon, the Rafale is above all ahead of its main European competitor. It is worth remembering that even at this level, France benefits from a 100% industrial return on sales made abroad, while each member country of the Eurofighter program shares the return to the level of the investment. By adding the expected contracts, a return of the Eurofighter in the race is unlikely given the state of the program which is struggling to move forward and only does so in dispersed order. Struggling to transform this formidable interceptor into a truly multirole aircraft, Germany even turned to the USA with the purchase of Super Hornets. Although the Rafale would have been a much more sensible operational choice, it would have been politically terrible choice.With a French industry with a full order book, the weight of the French BITD in the political choice of the successor to the Rafale must weigh. At a time when choices are being negotiated and major differences have still not been resolved, it might be useful to remind our politicians that despite the high cost of a program carried out alone, France has , in the end, made the right choice. Without denying the beneficial effects of a cooperative program, we should not either put under the carpet the complications that this also generates. The more time passes, the more the success of the Rafale program is confirmed to the detriment of the European program. It might be appropriate to seize the opportunity of the position of strength which has been acquired by France.the weight of the French BITD in the political choice of the successor to the Rafale must weigh. At a time when choices are being negotiated and major differences have still not been resolved, it might be useful to remind our politicians that despite the high cost of a program carried out alone, France has , in the end, made the right choice. Without denying the beneficial effects of a cooperative program, we should not either put under the carpet the complications that this also generates. The more time passes, the more the success of the Rafale program is confirmed to the detriment of the European program. It might be appropriate to seize the opportunity of the position of strength which has been acquired by France.the weight of the French BITD in the political choice of the successor to the Rafale must weigh. At a time when choices are being negotiated and major differences have still not been resolved, it might be useful to remind our politicians that despite the high cost of a program carried out alone, France has , in the end, made the right choice. Without denying the beneficial effects of a cooperative program, we should not either put under the carpet the complications that this also generates. The more time passes, the more the success of the Rafale program is confirmed to the detriment of the European program. It might be appropriate to seize the opportunity of the position of strength which has been acquired by France.At a time when choices are being negotiated and major differences have still not been resolved, it might be useful to remind our politicians that despite the high cost of a program carried out alone, France has , in the end, made the right choice. Without denying the beneficial effects of a cooperative program, we should not either put under the carpet the complications that this also generates. The more time passes, the more the success of the Rafale program is confirmed to the detriment of the European program. It might be appropriate to seize the opportunity of the position of strength which has been acquired by France.At a time when choices are being negotiated and major differences have still not been resolved, it might be useful to remind our politicians that despite the high cost of a program carried out alone, France has , in the end, made the right choice. Without denying the beneficial effects of a cooperative program, we should not either put under the carpet the complications that this also generates. The more time passes, the more the success of the Rafale program is confirmed to the detriment of the European program. It might be appropriate to seize the opportunity of the position of strength which has been acquired by France.Without denying the beneficial effects of a cooperative program, we should not either put under the carpet the complications that this also generates. The more time passes, the more the success of the Rafale program is confirmed to the detriment of the European program. It might be appropriate to seize the opportunity of the position of strength which has been acquired by France.Without denying the beneficial effects of a cooperative program, we should not either put under the carpet the complications that this also generates. The more time passes, the more the success of the Rafale program is confirmed to the detriment of the European program. It might be appropriate to seize the opportunity of the position of strength which has been acquired by France.
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