Know Your 'Rafale'

[Nuvneet Kundu]

I appreciate your optimism. It is just that there has been a lot of negative feedback in french medias after Hollande's trip ending with another MoU and no contract. Still the Rafale is such an awesome plane ... an universal fighter jet , just like the F4 Phantom was for decades. It is actually cheap for all it can do

No one disagrees over its capabilities. There are certain geostrategic kinks that need to be ironed out before we make any big purchase from France. Take for example the fact that you sold cutting edge French submarines with AIP to Pakistan. Yeah, those are the kind of things that cause these inconvenient delays. If we agree on geopolitics, then tactical things like weapons purchases can be worked out very easily.

 

[punjab47]

the cold war radar guided missiles achieved a 6.6% probability of kill in BVR engagements. Of the conflicts featuring BVR engagements the highest probability of kill was achieved by Israel in 1982 Lebanon war yielding a kill rate of 20%. After cold war the accuracy of BVR missiles improved.

Until now post cold war USA had achieved 47% (approx) probability of kill with AIM 120 AMRAAM in six engagements. It was recorded that out of 19 missiles fired, 8-9 enemy airplanes (including two friendly helicopters) were hit. That's a 47.36% hit rate. And that was against aircraft either obsolete or known to be equipped with poor warning/countermeasure systems (half-dozen of Serbian MiG-29). AIM-9L in Gulf war had recorded only 23% hit rate. These percentages of BVR hits after cold war are going to further depreciate against a near peer adversary as the BVR hits recorded were not achieved against any adversary having similar BVR capabilities. The fighter jets could not employ electronic counter measures and in some cases were fleeing and non-maneuvering. The modern day Russian and Chinese fighter jets employ digital radio frequency memory (DRFM) form of electronic counter measures which impose reportedly greater suppression of radars hindering radar guided missiles effectiveness

The Irbis-E X-band radar developed for Russian Su 35 fighter jet can detect low observable targets with an RCS of 0.01 square meters at a distance of 50(93km) nmi making F-35 detectable by the aircraft.

F35 supposedly 0.001 but 0.01 is pak fa so should improve when they get signature of f35. That's why USA going for f15/18 upgrade to go from 8 to 16 hardpoints.

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2016/01/idn-take-is-f-35-americas-worst.html?m=1

 

[Tactical Frog]

No one disagrees over its capabilities. There are certain geostrategic kinks that need to be ironed out before we make any big purchase from France. Take for example the fact that you sold cutting edge French submarines with AIP to Pakistan. Yeah, those are the kind of things that cause these inconvenient delays. If we agree on geopolitics, then tactical things like weapons purchases can be worked out very easily.[/

Hmm. India got even bigger and better subs with the Kalvari class , no ? That story with Pakistan ended very badly for France, with a deadly blast in Karachi and complications at home too. India is a much bigger

No one disagrees over its capabilities. There are certain geostrategic kinks that need to be ironed out before we make any big purchase from France. Take for example the fact that you sold cutting edge French submarines with AIP to Pakistan. Yeah, those are the kind of things that cause these inconvenient delays. If we agree on geopolitics, then tactical things like weapons purchases can be worked out very easily.

But India got even better technology and bigger subs with the Kalvari class, no ? It is India we like

 

[Bornubus]

Rafale is worst buy that too 36 in no.Russians would've given us Mig 35 with AESA and 100 + plus number by 2020.

Even now naval Mig 29K is better than MKI and outclass F 16 blk 52 in terms of BVR engagement and Radar detection.

 

[Nuvneet Kundu]

But India got even better technology and bigger subs with the Kalvari class, no ? It is India we like

Yeah, you sell a gun to a person so that you can sell bulletproof jacket to his enemy. This is not love, this is the standard business model of how defense sales works. You blackmailed us to make us buy these things. The reason we have to put up with it is that our position is weak on the negotiating table due to lack of local alternatives. We are facing the full brunt of the 'beggars can't be choosers' paradigm.

Anyway, whatever deal is struck will be the best compromise we can make. This is a stopgap solution for us because our indigenous aviation projects have been behind schedule. 36 Rafales will plug our defense needs for 10 years, by that time hopefully our indigenous industry and R&D will have started producing our own planes.

 

[garg_bharat]

Iaf is living in fantasy world. Goi has to deal with real issues like shortfall of tax revenue and mounting internal security challenge.

I am against expensive foreign military deals. Buying white elephants always proves counterproductive.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

What's is the point of buy 36 Rafale if it's not coming it with best weapon Package, a toothless $10 ~ billion tiger !

Rafale is coming, there is no going back now, it would be better if IAF gets the best package on par with France, we already leg behind in BVR arena Meteor can't be compared with anything in service with PLAF although their SD 10A is said to have a range 70 - 100 km.Tell us why Meteor is is unfit for Indian context ?

As for PAK FA and S 400 is only a pipe dream as of now even if the deal materialise the 1st PAK FA won't be inducted before 2022 and S 400 before 2020.

Recently israel has offerred I derby and said that it shall offer 80% of metor's performance at a low cost. it is an effective deal. Astra should be the first priority, Immediately after the Astra Mk 1 test, Mk2 test was scheduled. Do not know what happened to that test>

 

[Immanuel]

No i can't be sure of that and the way this costly deal went on no body is sure of anything.

Well Meteor for India can make sense looking at the prices being quoted but even the French AF will only start reciveing Meteor in 2018, even if the order is placed today the early Rafales can only come in 2019 and in those timelines Astra MK-2 is very much ready for induction. The prices of the Meteor can be well over 3 million per unit. Keep in mind we already order 500 MICA missiles for 950 million, these missiles in inventory should be enough to manage the initial needs of the Rafale. For the threats we face Astra MK-2 should be a very capable missile.

 

[Bornubus]

Well Meteor for India can make sense looking at the prices being quoted but even the French AF will only start reciveing Meteor in 2018, even if the order is placed today the early Rafales can only come in 2019 and in those timelines Astra MK-2 is very much ready for induction. The prices of the Meteor can be well over 3 million per unit. Keep in mind we already order 500 MICA missiles for 950 million, these missiles in inventory should be enough to manage the initial needs of the Rafale. For the threats we face Astra MK-2 should be a very capable missile.

Yes, if DRDO could develop MK 2 (150 km) by 2020 it would make the induction of Metor irrelevant and costly.

But given the delays of Astra MK 1, i highly doubt that.

 

[Immanuel]

Well i go by another analysis that has been with me for some time. Its for a commercial jet but a rough analogy may be used for computation.

LCC is in simple words Design manufacture operation disposal cost over lifetime

http://**********/attachments/upload_2016-1-27_14-27-34-png.289824/
Source: 16,885 Aircraft systems Engineering Cost analysis by Karen Wilcox , MIT, ACDL

Now i can give the Design to manufacturing costs based on open sources and very very rough estimations.

See part 1


http://**********/attachments/upload_2016-1-27_14-23-33-png.289822/

Basically it implies based on the program cost and present confirmed orders (including 36 Indian Rafales), the amortised per unit cost comes out to be Euro 133.61 Mn

Part 2 based on number of orders, this amortised per unit cost comes down as below

http://**********/attachments/upload_2016-1-27_14-25-46-png.289823/
As seen the amortised cost if Rafale reaches a similar number as Mirages of say 600 nos, will be Euro 98.69 Mn per Jet

Part 3,
From the same Karen Wilcox research,

http://**********/attachments/upload_2016-1-27_14-31-51-png.289826/

http://**********/attachments/upload_2016-1-27_14-32-7-png.289827/

FOr the time being let us assume the life cycle cost based on the above model only negating its for commercial jets bcz Crew cost 40% can be replaced by 10% additional cost in fuel and 30% cost of weapons. This means fuel cost is now 30%

and using the publicly available one figure

So if we go from bottom to top, Rafale Operational Cost is estimated at $16,500 per hour

Rafale Loiter time is around 3 hours

So based on the above data

http://**********/attachments/upload_2016-1-27_15-18-30-png.289835/

http://**********/attachments/upload_2016-1-27_15-36-29-png.289837/

Part 4 is total LIfe Cycle costs of all steps together and thus it is Euro 133.61 Mn + Euro 43.40 Mn = Euro 177 Mn or $ 191.16 Mn

If you consider from Flyaway price then life cycle cost is 3 X multiple of flyaway cost.

Considering a scenario under MII with 100 more orders and export follow and new orders, the potential Amortised price of 450 jets is Euro 111 Mn implying LCC cost of Euro 154 Mn
If its for India 200 Jets, and another exports and France orders adding a total of 300 over present 309 orders meaning a total of 600 jets then amortised cost comes out to Euro 98.7 Mn and LCC cost would be Euro 142 Mn

This shows why the line in India is strategic in nature as the MII order allows around of 10-20% savings in cost

Judging by the capital cost component per base setup per squadron should be around Euro 522 Mn so for our 2 base of operations it should be around Euro 1 Bn.

Thats the best i understand. IF anyone has a different understanding pls feel free to explain so that i can also understand from that.

A very good analysis, should be more or less correct, however its not clear if you include cost of spares, depending on the parts and MTBFs, spares can be quite expensive too. You can also add another 60 million or more per aircraft for MLU judging by the Mirages 40 million per aircraft upgrade. Also in the Indian context, there are the costs of offsets, costs of TOT, if the line does come to India you can be sure there will be some TOT and hence the related costs. All in all the LCC of a Rafale over 40 years including MLU should be over 250 million.

 

[Immanuel]

Yes, if DRDO could develop MK 2 (150 km) by 2020 it would make the induction of Metor irrelevant and costly.

But given the delays of Astra MK 1, i highly doubt that.

As far as I know there aren't delays in the Astra MK-1/2, With Astra-MK-1 DRDO is scaling up tech for Astra MK-2, this should be done in the next couple of years. Eitherway, why Meteor when I-Derby-ER offers a cheaper solution? The missile has a pulse motor for a secondary kick and a range over 100km good enough for swatting around our neighborhood. Atleast with I Derby-Er we have similarities with LCA's BVR arsenal.

 

[Immanuel]

Any news update on this?

They are busy with it hush hush, actually the deal is going to be significant, with 5 full scale regiments under direct buy from Russia and another 7 or so under Make in India, however this is one mammoth production task and the details need to be ironed out. The entire production run for 12 regiments can be well over 5000 missiles. We'll hear more in a couple of months.

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

F35 need aircover of F22 in all scenarios. F22 need F35 for ground attack.
Such scenarois are not in favour of any nation. Thats the catch. Multirole is where Rafale beats them both.

In Indian perspective , with two hostile neighbours at horizon you need multirole fighters in your squadrons. One Rafale does the job of one F22 and one F35 combined.

Well when it comes to strike missions even rafales need a2a cover or
They will have to abort strike missions dump the strike ammo and fight a2a

 

[Gessler]

Well when it comes to strike missions even rafales need a2a cover or
They will have to abort strike missions dump the strike ammo and fight a2a

Have you even been reading all the posts?

Did you manage to understand any of it at all??

But ofcourse...changing the forum does not change a person's IQ. No problem, I fully understand the issue.

 

[AbRaj]

Note : All these Contents are taken from The omnirole rafale & it's future from air international magazine june 2013.

FULLY MATURE RAFALE

Fully Mature [emoji1], there is no such thing as fully mature, there is always a possibility of further improvement

 

[Immanuel]

Rafale in the Indian context at prices being quoted is an utter waste of time and currency. All this BS of 81 million is hogwash, fanboys need to stop quoting French AF flyaway prices, we are not getting the same price. The flyaway prices being quoted for India are around 135 million and the total cost per aircraft including weapons comes down to around 220 million + At such prices Rafale is useless.

 

[gadeshi]

Rafale in the Indian context at prices being quoted is an utter waste of time and currency. All this BS of 81 million is hogwash, fanboys need to stop quoting Frecnh AF flyaway prices, we are not getting the same price. The flyaway prices being quoted for India are around 135 million and the total cost per aircraft including weapons comes down to around 220 million + At such prices Rafale is useless.

Especially while China gets its heavy Su-35SK for approx. 120 millions (most insiders agreed with this estimation) including standard pack of weapons, training and expendables.

Отправлено с моего XT1080 через Tapatalk

 

[Immanuel]

.

Lets see how much each Rafale costs

1. Rafale - $100 million
2. MICA EM - 4 missiles - $6 million
3. MICA IR - 4 missiles - $6 million
4. Meteor - 4 missile - $8 million
5. SCALP - 4 missile - $3 million
6. AASM/PGM- 10 bombs - $2 million
7. AASM/LGM - 10 bombs - $2 million


8. Damocles - $2 million
9. RBE 2 AESA - one additional Radar - $5 million
10. M88 Engine - 2 additional engine for each Rafale - $20 million

11. one hour flying cost - $16,000, per year- $5 million per year- 300 flying hour per year- for twenty years - $100 million

12. Base set up, Engineers training, Support - $10 million



As simple each Rafale costs more than $250 millions, those missile numbers can only increases ..

That's the above value for Rafale for twenty years

Meteor is not part of the weapons package.

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

The only thing to know about this whole my rafale is when my govt is dropping the deal like a hot potato

 

[BON PLAN]

.

Lets see how much each Rafale costs

1. Rafale - $100 million
2. MICA EM - 4 missiles - $6 million
3. MICA IR - 4 missiles - $6 million
4. Meteor - 4 missile - $8 million
5. SCALP - 4 missile - $3 million
6. AASM/PGM- 10 bombs - $2 million
7. AASM/LGM - 10 bombs - $2 million


8. Damocles - $2 million
9. RBE 2 AESA - one additional Radar - $5 million
10. M88 Engine - 2 additional engine for each Rafale - $20 million

11. one hour flying cost - $16,000, per year- $5 million per year- 300 flying hour per year- for twenty years - $100 million

12. Base set up, Engineers training, Support - $10 million



As simple each Rafale costs more than $250 millions, those missile numbers can only increases ..

That's the above value for Rafale for twenty years

The price of one Rafale is less than 100 million. And it includes the engines. No need of 2 engines in spares, juste some components....
So the total is not what you say.