Know Your 'Rafale'

[Punya Pratap]

therre is not talk of rpicing

only better terms than those offered under MMRCA

Thats what it is all about... better term than the MMRCA deal !!

 

[smestarz]

RAFALE DEAL CAN MAKE INDIA NO. 1 ONCE MORE IN DEFENCE IMPORT

SUMMARY
Rafale fighter jet deal with France can happen during PM Modi's trip
Deal can propel India back to biggest importer of defense equipment globally
India lost out to Saudi Arabia in early 2015 as world's top defence equipment importer
$20-billion deal for 126 Rafale fighter aircraft has been stuck since 2012 over price
France's Dassault Aviation was selected by India from among 5 bidders in 2012
If 'technology transfer' is given by Rafale, it will boost PM Modi's 'Make In India' initiative
If PM Modi gets through Rafale deal, India will regain the position it lost to Saudi Arabia in early 2015.
While New Delhi is looking to seal the deal on the Rafale fighter jets with France during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's talks with French President Francois Hollande in Paris, it might put India back on the map as the world's biggest importer of defense equipment.

Analysts say that if the fighter deal goes through with France, India will regain the position it lost to Saudi Arabia in early 2015 as the world's top defence equipment importer. The $20-billion deal for 126 Rafale fighter aircraft has been stuck since 2012 over price and delivery guarantees. France's Dassault Aviation was selected by India from among five bidders in 2012 for buying 126 Rafale fighter jets as it was the lowest bidder.

Saudi Arabia surpassed India to become the world's top importer of defense equipment in 2014, according to IHS Jane's, as global defense trade rose for the sixth straight year to $64.4 billion, up from $56.8 billion.

According to Statistica, the scale of Middle East's booming weapons trade can be estimated from the fact that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates imported $8.6 billion of military equipment in 2014 – more than the defense imports of Western Europe combined.

In 2014, India imported $5.57 billion of military hardware, placing it second worldwide. China rounds off the top three, with arms imports amounting to $2.6 billion.



The US, the world's top supplier of defense equipment, accounted for one-third of all exports last year and was the main beneficiary of strong Middle Eastern demand, IHS said.

America's Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, Europe's Airbus Group and Russia's United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) are the top five company exporters globally.

PTI reports that the deal to supply 126 Rafale fighter planes is also deadlocked because of differences over cost and technology transfer issues to give the 'Make In India' initiative a big push. The French firm is reportedly seeking a higher price. The Rafale and Eurofighter Typhoon were the only two defence firms left in the race for the 126 aircraft Indian deal after years of tests since 2009.

Modi, who arrived in Paris late on Thursday on a four-day visit, will also address two meetings with French CEOs—one on infrastructure and another on defence. He will also have 'Naav pe Charcha' (chat on boat) with Hollande when they go for a cruise on Seine river which passes through Paris.

Rafale Deal Can Make India No. 1 Once More In Defence Import | Focus News

Should the intention be to be the biggest import of Weapons or to be the biggest exporter?

 

[Punya Pratap]

Should the intention be to be the biggest import of Weapons or to be the biggest exporter?

Smestarz that is a very important long term goal and MMRCA/ FGFA etc were meant to help us realise it!

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

@ersakthivel @sgarg

thanks for replying

1) if that is the case will there be reprimand on those who put the nation (india) in such a position

2) the ultimate purpose is to get large number of planes with transfer of technology why would france want to supply 36 planes when they can supply over 100+. HAL needs to be involved and they have done the same for Hawk and even Jaguar and to some extent Dhruv.

3) relations between France and india

if we are getting 36 planes for stop gap measure we could have got su30mki and even mig29 ... if we wanted 4.5 generation plane why in such small number. reliance on tejas and fgfa is fine but they are different animals. our amca needs to move fast. the nations also that deal with us later need to know we know what we are doing.

i think what we have done is a stop gap measure to deal with a bad tender and also bad arrangement that was taking us in a wrong approach and direction. what we have done is to deal with france and move it in a direction that is positive and good for india. and france will get a larger order but it will have to be like what we did with su30mki. rafael mki ... if not by the tender it can be away from the tender. we need to develop good relations.

we cannot deal with nations and especially UNSC members by issuing tenders and suddenly cancelling them and giving 36 orders. france is supportive of india in many areas and we need to get on the UNSC. france and the leadership of india will not like to be seen to be fools and being played by others.

it is better india and france work together and i am sure india would have been frank and explained what they really want and are willing to go with france. but we need to fix the system to make sure such a thing does not happen again if what is true that the tender was not done properly. i understand that the last administration did not finalize the deal (one can appreciate why that was not the case and how and why).

10+ years we need to get the best deal for everyone. and i feel this was planned the way it is happening in a larger broader context especially if one looks at the past when rafael at one stage was not in the tender due to non compliance. 36 (initial) order is to test that. and i have a feeling this was ultimately planned long ago and the finer details on how it is actually done is what we are discussing. the tender was designed for france to win. i feel this was a smart geo-political move by india because we have USA and Russia on the side. we also need to develop deep relations with big powers because we never know how and when we will use them later. (it helps by making smart and good decisions the other side will appreciate and want to take things ahead more deepers and strongly.) france needs to know that india will be a partner not a adversary. india needs to know that france will be a partner and not a adversary.

good for everyone yes

but then they need to hold to thier quoted prices

why it should always be us who should offer more to develop relations

why cant we expect the french to take a cut sometimes to develop good relations

after all good relationshio building works both ways

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

The only two contenders to make it to the L1 stage were Eurofighter and Rafale, if you are telling me Rafale is more expensive to operate than EF, i have a Guchi bag from China to sell you.



You are making this Rs. vs USD which is not accurate as the US dollar has skyrocketed against both currencies. The pricing is done Rs. v Euro and that price has not doubled much less tripled. The deal struck is in accordance with the MMRCA pricing structure, given that it is years later. I think MMRCA is in the trash bin and Dassault should just deliver the ordered planes and not look at HAL ever again. They clearly don't trust them and think their production and quality control practices are on the level of babu like efficiency. There is too much bureaucracy and lack of accountability to do business with them on a project as complex as Rafale. This is not some simple trainer, this is a cutting edge high precision fighter that needs PRIVATE industry to avoid babus entanglements and corruption.

boss world over

private cos are more & most corrupt than govt owned ones

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

Thats what it is all about... better term than the MMRCA deal !!

But then in MMRCA we had full ToT & 50% offsets

so if we are waiving off full ToT & 50% offsets then the pricing for these built into MMRCA needs to taken off in order for 36

so for these 36 we need to have better terms than those of MMRCA

 

[sgarg]

@PaliwalWarrior, you are wrong. Dassault has already revised the prices it offered in the tender. Seemingly UPA government allowed financial bids to lapse. So Dassault is under no obligation to supply at the same price.

You have to start with the assumption that MMRCA tender is dead. Then everything becomes clear.

 

[Rushil51]

How Narendra Modi reworked Rafale deal, and why it’s a winner - The Economic Times

 

[Compersion]

good for everyone yes

but then they need to hold to thier quoted prices

why it should always be us who should offer more to develop relations

why cant we expect the french to take a cut sometimes to develop good relations

after all good relationshio building works both ways

After two years of evaluation and negotiations, on 30 November 1996, India signed a US$1.462 billion deal with Sukhoi for 50 Russian-produced Su-30MKIs in five batches. The first batch were eight Su-30MKs, the basic version of Su-30. The second batch were to be 10 Su-30Ks with French and Israeli avionics. The third batch were to be 10 Su-30MKIs featuring canard foreplanes. The fourth batch of 12 Su-30MKIs and final batch of 10 Su-30MKIs were to have the AL-31FP turbofans.

In October 2000, a MoU (Memorandum of Understanding) was signed for Indian licence-production of 140 Su-30MKIs; in December 2000, a deal was sealed at Russia's Irkutsk aircraft plant for full technology transfer. The first Nasik-built Su-30MKIs were to be delivered by 2004, with staggered production until 2017–18. In November 2002, the delivery schedule was expedited with production to be completed by 2015.

Sukhoi Su-30MKI - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Thanks for replying. The comments above all make me feel that we are going to get a deal like su30mki (but better and more mature in terms of focus and concentration and documents).

I would replace the words interchangeably between Rafael and Su30MKI ... in fact i would even use the scale of time and dates (probably faster because the french and india both have put efficeny on the table and we want france to have better image after scorpene). i really feel it is a similar understanding and deal we are entering between france that we did with russia. surely the technology and deliverables are more modern now and the sub systems and also the system integration and process down the line need to be adjusted. but that was the same for how we handled and started manufacturing the suhkoi in india. france might ask for the same contract like we have with russia. but they need to understand that russia and india deal like gentlemen but we want a proper contract because of future realizations and also future collaboration with france (+ relatives).

I would also say that we paid premium for the su30mki and that led us to learn and develop our industry base and ability to develop such a potent platform. was it worth it ... definitely. we are building a potent platform here in india. and the su30mki is a relationship with russia for many years and we have a strong relationship with russia.

Again i would replace the words interchangeable between Russia and France.

Lastly if we really want to do most efficient and cost effective approach and conserve money we ought to build our own planes. That is where the Tejas and later more modern platforms has to ramp up. The deal with France is going to be expensive but we have to get value that includes geo-politcis equations and technology absorption and manufacturing learning. but like with Russia the French need to understand it wont be one way street ... we bring a lot to the table (including training and evaluation and large industry base and even more observant values, language and rule of law system we simple will not back stab and steal)

Russian air force orders thrust-vectoring Su-30SM fighters - 7/21/2011 - Flight Global

*** after thought (really feel it is a deja vu) - the Sukhoi corporation had money injection by India when it needed that helped ... Dassault reference ... ideally we ought to take a equity stake in Dassault at least a minority stake of 20-30% since there is scope for us to manufacture their other platforms like falcon jets. the JV in India with higher local 47%+ ownership and all IP held in the entity(s) locally since this might be the large platform for make in india and private industry involvement in defense (to over come deja vu and be 100% like su30mki)

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

@PaliwalWarrior, you are wrong. Dassault has already revised the prices it offered in the tender. Seemingly UPA government allowed financial bids to lapse. So Dassault is under no obligation to supply at the same price.

You have to start with the assumption that MMRCA tender is dead. Then everything becomes clear.

you forget that

1. MoD has asked to extend bid validity extention before every expiry of bids -as per MoD officials & sources quoted in news reports from time to time

2. one month ago Dasault CEO made statement that there is no change in price - till today it is the same as originally quoted

now - was dasault CEO lying ?

 

[PaliwalWarrior]

@sgarg

well

I think the 36 rafale order is a trap & a message to dasault

I think there are 2 scenarios which can play out here

the contentious issues are pricing of the MMRCA (126 + 63 options) + probable 45 rafale m for IN

reportedly Dasault is asking for a price hike which we are not willing to pay as it will create a controversy & a scandal

the dasault has increased the quoted price of MMRCA which we are not agreeing to pay

now we made an offer to buy 36 in G2G contract with better terms than those offered under MMRCA

now the focus shifts back to pricing of MMRCA Offer as the pricing for 36 too depends on MMRCA quotes

because the whole game is now dependent upon it

Scenario 1



now suppose dasault plays ball on MMRCA and agrees to original 12-14 billion quote

then

dasault gets orders for 36+126+63 options+ probably 45 rafale M for IN = 270

so if dasault plays ball on MMRCA pricing and agrees to stick to original quote then

there is an order for 225-270 for it to take

of course it will have to take some hit right now but will earn much much more for spares, support, MLU etc etc and france will benefit in terms of weapons for 225 -270 instead of just for 36

now this could happen by MMRCA or by Su30 MKI like deal

BJP will avoid a major controvery


scenario 2

Dasault does not play ball on MMRCA price and stick to asking upward revision in price

then in such a case

we will still buy 36 at higher prices but

if Modi govt went for Su30MKi like deal with incremantal orders at different price points

which will effectively mean that Modi govt is willingly giving pricehike to dasault when the tenderr a route to get low priced rafale is till alive

it will invite a major controversy & corruption allegations & scandal allegations - which it seems inclined to avoid

so in such a case - MMRCA & SU30MKI like deal both gets ruled out

so in such a scenario

we still purchase 36 rafale at higher prices and keep the french govt happy - daasault is too happy at they are going to supply 36 at higher prices

but they can effectively forget the rest of the 126+63+45 rafle M

with 36 Iaf gets a breather till 2020

modi govt avoids a major controvery & gets time till 2017 to wiok out the options


so effectively 36 is what we are buying with higher prices and thats it

no more second lot of 36 or 24
&
MMRCA is History

 

[sgarg]

you forget that

1. MoD has asked to extend bid validity extention before every expiry of bids -as per MoD officials & sources quoted in news reports from time to time

2. one month ago Dasault CEO made statement that there is no change in price - till today it is the same as originally quoted

now - was dasault CEO lying ?

If price was "fixed" then why 3 years of negotiations?? That means that a number of items were either not there in tender or something was changed afterwards.

What CEO said is immaterial. In single liner like this hides more than its shows. If things were so simple as you say, then UPA would have signed the contract.

There is still no finality to tender negotiations. As I said earlier, this deal means specifically that the tender is dead.

It is possible that India still negotiates local manufacture of Rafale, but how much is continuity from MMRCA tender is questionable. Ultimately both technical specs and financial aspects will change for the local manufacture.

 

[Lions Of Punjab]

RAFALE JET FIGHTERS DEAL OPENS PANDORA'S BOX, AMBANIS EMERGE AS POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES

NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has in one brilliant, and totally unprecedented, stroke killed several birds in France. By intervening to clear the way for the delivery of 36 "ready to fly" Rafale fighter jets the PM has taken a decisive decision that on the face of it addresses the "critical operational requirements" of the Indian Air Force, but actually opens what could be a Pandora's Box of bonanza's for the private defence sector( read Ambani) in India, and a revival of Dassault Aviation that might have shut shop otherwise. It is, of course, also intended as a signal of 'more to come' for world governments seeking a slice of India's big defence pie.

The tender for the the 126 jet fighters was floated by the Ministry of Defence in 2007. Dassault was selected after the usual procedure to supply the Rafale jet fighters at an estimated cost of $ 20 billion. Under the agreement it was decided that 18 of the fighters would be supplied in 'ready to fly' condition, and the remaining 108 manufactured with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited in India. The deal got bogged down over differences centering around the French resistance to the Indian demand that Dassault take responsibility for the HAL produced fighters and stand guarantee for the same. There was no breakthrough till date with both sides stuck on the negotiations that were making no headway.

PM Modi arrived in France and in a grand gesture announced "Keeping in mind critical operational necessity of fighter jets in India, I have talked to him(French President Francois Hollande) and requested for 36 Rafale jets in fly-away condition as quickly as possible under government-to-government deal."

The PM's direct intervention has, thus, effectively closed the earlier file that has been hanging fire between the two sides for three years, and converted the deal into a government-to-government transaction for what is a first for India in its military dealings with France. And as experts here point out, the rules of the game have thus, changed completely taking the deal out of the hands of the bureaucrats and the Ministry of Defence and placing it in the hands of the political leadership that can now direct the framing of new rules for this as it goes along.

For instance, there is no clarity whether 1) the 126 aircraft deal has been reduced now to just the 36 aircraft that the PM has spoken of; 2) if not, will the remaining 90 fighter jets be manufactured with HAL or will the deal be re-negotiated with the private sector and Dassault. There is no clarity on any of this so far.

Hence, the informed speculation that the deal can now be turned away from public sector participation at the Indian end, to private collaboration between an Indian company and Dassault. Reliance business honcho Mukesh Ambani was present in France and has already signed an agreement with Dassault---quietly and without much fanfare---in 2012 itself, after Dassault was selected to supply the Rafale fighter jets in a deal that had almost the entire defence manufacturing world competing for it.

Dassault Aviation in a statement at the time had admitted entering into an "MoU with Reliance Industries Ltd, India's largest private sector company, for pursuing strategic opportunities of collaboration in the area of complex manufacturing and support in India." The Congress government was in power at the time, and the agreement in the defence sector had been approved by the government. There was mention in the media of the possibility of Reliance becoming---through collaboration on the Rafale deal---the biggest Indian player in combat jets. However, the UPA government at some point appeared to have got cold feet and insisted on Dassault not only working with public sector HAL but also standing guarantee for the combat fighters, a sore point that held up the agreement till date.

There has been no announcement as yet on Reliance, and defence experts expect this to be a piecemeal deal over the next weeks or even months. In fact, while Mukesh Ambani has signed the MoU with Dassault, his younger brother Anil Ambani has in what is being seen in defence circles as a complimenting, and certainly not contradictory, move acquired controlling stakes in the Gujarat based Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering in March this year in what is a whopping over Rs 2000 crore deal. Anil Ambani in his remarks after the acquisition said that this was a "unique opportunity for Reliance Group to participate in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Make in India' programme for the high growth defence sector."

PM Modi has also brought fresh life to Dassault Aviation that, without this deal could have been looking at closure. The 36 jet fighters alone give the loss making French company a new lease of life, with costs for India now expected to touch new heights. The maintenance and sustenance of the 36 aircraft that will now be done by Dassault of course with a price attached, will rev up the figures substantially as spare parts and the infrastructure to do so will be required for at least 40 years while the squadrons are in operation.

Interestingly as experts pointed out, if the rules of the game were to be changed in this rather dramatic fashion the Prime Minister should have taken a serious look at some of the other offers on the anvil. More so as under the new order these might have proven to be more cost effective than the Dassault deal as it is emerging now. For instance, Swedish defence company Gripen that had also put in a bid for the 126 fighter jets had offered to transfer entire manufacturing units to India. This would have cut costs substantially, and was at least worth exploring now that India has suddenly decided to award a contract of 36 fighter jets (instead of 18) in a 'ready to fly' condition with no word whether HAL would be co-producing it now.

The devil in this deal is in the details that have still to emerge.

RAFALE JET FIGHTERS DEAL OPENS PANDORA'S BOX, AMBANIS EMERGE AS POSSIBLE BENEFICIARIES

 

[sgarg]

The above article has several flaws. The first and obvious one is that IAF does not want Gripen. The two contenders selected by IAF were Rafale and Eurofighter.

Eurofighter was not favoured by political leadership and India does not have a lot of experience dealing with Germany as big military supplier. Eurofighter supply chain is considered more complicated compared to Rafale.

The fact is IAF wanted Rafale and the PM has found a way to deliver it. The tender had become unworkable due to too many slips.

 

[mayfair]

Eurofighter was not favoured by political leadership and India does not have a lot of experience dealing with Germany as big military supplier. Eurofighter supply chain is considered more complicated compared to Rafale.

Actually we do. We purchased Type 209 HDW submarines from West Germany way back in 1987 during Rajiv Gandhi's time, which ran into a scandal ala Bofors.

However, recently Germany refused to allow small arms sales to our paramilitaries citing human rights violations. It's hard to believe that it would not have setback the Eurofighter chances. Moreover, the Italian marine issue and the usual EU shenanigans of late, it would be safe to say that Eurofighter was barely in contentions that that too to keep Dassault on their toes.

 

[sob]

I will add my 2cents to this.

1. Rafael was shortlisted by IAF so there was no way that GOI could go in for another aircraft.
2.Gripen was never in the race. LCA fits in the role.
3.Whether Ambani comes in the picture or not is not our concern. That is the share of Dassault. The pie is fixed, who gets what allocation is for the French to decide.
4. French Govt. has offered longer maintenance support, that is very important, perhaps the most important point considering the small number of aircraft on order.

 

[sob]

Actually we do. We purchased Type 209 HDW submarines from West Germany way back in 1987 during Rajiv Gandhi's time, which ran into a scandal ala Bofors.

However, recently Germany refused to allow small arms sales to our paramilitaries citing human rights violations. It's hard to believe that it would not have setback the Eurofighter chances. Moreover, the Italian marine issue and the usual EU shenanigans of late, it would be safe to say that Eurofighter was barely in contentions that that too to keep Dassault on their toes.

these small arms deals were of negligible value. Just see how they are behaving with the MMRCA deal. At the end of the day it is big bucks that matter.

 

[mayfair]

these small arms deals were of negligible value. Just see how they are behaving with the MMRCA deal. At the end of the day it is big bucks that matter.

Yes, but as we have seen in the past, Germans have this exceedingly irksome tendency to interfere in our internal affairs or get preachy. Just look at the recent statements of their ambassador in India.

They also have been in the forefront of EU raising our hackles when it comes to trade and all.

Though, the French are no saints either (the way they shafted us on Scorpene, Mirage 2000 and probably will again on Rafale and weapons systems) and not "omnireliant" as the Mistral deal showed, as pointed out, their is comparatively less political and geopolitical baggage when it comes to dealing with them.

 

[ersakthivel]

Armand the cost negotiations were flawed from Day 1 and not something that is due to the currency fluctuations or rising costs. The costing (Unit price + Life cycle costs + supporting equipment and spares) was not calculated properly and left out crucial components which were added later when the deal reached the final stages.

We all realise that had the previous government not allowed the financial bids to lapse the costing would have been frozen with a little leeway for currency fluctuations and rising costs for raw materials. If you think that these were the only reasons why the cost for the deal has more than doubled in the past three years than you are sadly mistaken coz India's economy is on an upward spiral and the rupee is set to keep improving against the dollar. By the way one reason given by Dassault for the rising unit cost is that it thinks with HAL the man hours needed to manufacture a unit will be higher and hence the higher price. I wonder whether Dassault is saying that they will not assist in setting up the production line where Dassault will SHOW - HAL how to build a plane which is the whole idea of the Make in India. We need not only the Tech but also the Manufacturing methods. Secondly I think Dassault should also visit the Bangalore complex where they are manufacturing Hawk AJT's as my previous post says .... it has incorporated Best Manufacturing Practices under the instructions of Bae and same is the role Dassault is supposed to play! I am worried the attitude of Dassault is that it wants ONLY Reliance as a partner and will play hardball with anybody else!!

just to state everything in a single sentence,
The whole MMRCA tender, RFP, Cost negotiation Committee, evaluation of totally irrelevant six MMRCA contenders over a decade,

and

Dassault's fake offer to comply with TOT to HAL and standing guarantee for HAL built rafales, as per MMRCA rules and its qualification as fake L1 ,

all of them are one huge scam to defraud the indian tax payer.


now this 36 rafale straight buy confirms all this, For no fault of the present GOI, the UPA-IAF combo has locked India into this disaster, by letting financial bids lapse.

The present GOI has simply caved in to IAF pressure for depleting squadron strength and bough some useless time by spending billions . Why useless time, because ultimately the serious differences in the present MMRCA negotiation will never be resolved.

The present GOI will find it very tough to agree to huge upwards revision on L1 price, as this will balloon into huge financial scam that will surely be busted by the CAG.

Opposition parties will fry modi govt in parliament if NDA agrees to huge upward revision of Rafale price.

Antony did not want to go to jail like raja and manohar Parrikar too will have no desire to cool his heels in Tihar jail, despite umpteen attempts by MMRCA apologists.

So what is being done is to use the sudden depreciation of Euro against dollar to fashion a 36 rafale deal which will be below the cost of new Dassault quoted price for MMRCA rafales and claims by the present govt about busting the MMRCA scam.

In reality this 36 rafale is a drop in a huge ocean that is never going to make any useful difference.

this allows the present govt to wiggle out of MMRCA claws and start negotiations afresh and escape strictures from CAG.

Ultimately what will replace those 126 MMRCA rafales in IAF will decide ,whether it is fruitful deal, or a simple face saver to strategic ties angle to french, or caving into IAF demands,which no one at present has any inkling.

because this deal buys five year time for NDA govt at a huge cost of 5 plus billions. After 5 years there will be FGFA and tejas mk2 options. So no IAF guy can claim ,there is no alternative to rafale with straight face, slyly suggesting Su-30 MKI has only one third of rafale's range!!!

By then Modi govt and Manohar parrikar will have complete understanding of the situations and motivations in IAF,

Any way IAF's depleting squadron strength is just a facile argument. Increasing SU-30 MKI production and increasing order for tejas mk1 will simply take care of depleting squadron strength, which IAF doggedly refused to do.

 

[Immanuel]

Well I for one am happy about the direct buy, we were wasting too much time, 36 fighters to be delivered in the next 2-3 years is fine as long as we get F-4 version. I am happy for the IAF, it gets 1 of the 2 aircrafts it likes and wants to have. In the mean time we can perhaps to have more money on hand and sort out the local production mess. If we can begin local production by 2019, should be fine. We can even order another squadron of 18 to add to the 36, taking the number to 54 as flyaway birds. With no reliable confirmed timelines for the PAKFA/AMCA, I see the Rafale being ordered more. I don't think the local production deal will end with 108, it will be cheaper to build more. I think the final number of Rafale to be operated will be around 180 for IAF, 10 sqds is a good number. Perhaps even the IN can buy around 2 sqds, 40 Rafale-M for the INS Vishal, this will take the entire number to 220, the last 40 being delivered with-in INS Vishal timelines.

The Rafale deal is largely expensive but heck better late than never, it's still a very capable fighter that can carry upwards of 9 Tons of ordnance, we need to ensure that the weapons it carries are largely Indian in order to save billion in weapons orders from France. I realize that through blunders of the UPA -------s and the falling strength of the IAF has locked us into this deal and there are very few other options without additional time delays. We should also order another 50 Super MKI to keep the numbers game till LCA MK-1 is available in numbers and LCA MK-2 comes along.

Its crucial for HAL to increase production rate of the LCA to 45 fighters a year by 2020. We also need a confirmed order of around 14 LCA MK-2 sqds. Based on this, HAL needs to be able to deliver 36 aircraft to IAF/IN every year while delivering at least half a squadron of 9 fighters to any export customer in a year.

In the mean time, I hope we order around 54 more LCA MK-1s, 2 sqds for IAF and 1 for IN as LIFT trainers, If IAF keeps refusing to use the MK-1 as a front line fighter, at the very least they can use it a as a LIFT Trainer. With increasing number of Naval fighters, it would be great for IN to have a Sqd too. LCA Mk-1 is the ideal LIFT trainer at the very least, it would vastly improve our pilots' training while introducing high speed supersonic flight, high G maneuvering, advanced attack/evasive tactics, advanced dogfight tactics, A2A Refueling, Low level flight, ECM, SEAD/DEAD, Escorting etc. etc. I propose the following training regime:

Stage-1 "Basic" on PC-7/HAL HTT-40 - currently 65 hrs to be changed to 60 flying hours, 20 hrs in Simulators

Stage-2 "Intermediate" training on Kiran aircraft & eventually IJT currently 82 hrs to be changed to - 80 flying hours, 40 hrs in Sims

Stage-3 "Advanced"on Hawk AJTs - 107 flying hours currently, should be changed to 80 hrs, 40 hrs in sims

Stage-4 "Application of Training concepts" on LCA MK-1 LIFT trainer - 60 flying hrs, 20 hrs in sims

In effect, rookie pilots will then log 260 hours of actual flying up from 254, apart from simulator training. Not a big difference in over-all hrs but by cutting back hrs in the hawk and increasing the time on the Tejas, a rookie would have spend a good amount of time in a high end supersonic fighter.

Now, the key things are for DRDO to speed of dev/testing of key weapons systems, we can certainly avoid a ton of weapons purchase expenses if we can over the next 2 years successfully finalize the Astra mk-1/2 80-110km range, successfully field Sudarshan LGBs, Light weight stand off glide weapon 130-150 km (show as AI-15), 1000Kg glide Bomb 100 km recently tested, light weight cruise missile 280km (shown at AI-15), and from day 1 to design & integrate the Brahmos-M on the Rafale. I also think, Nirbhay should be deployed on the Rafale. We also need to order 1000 or more CBU-105 SFW with local assembly, this will cause some serious shivering in Chi-Pak circles. DRDO should also quickly field the secretive ARM asap as we need a proper SEAD/DEAD weapon.

Idea should be to start the process of integrating these weapons on the Rafale as soon as they land. While relying on exiting weapons stocks of PGMs, MICAs till local weapons go active. For the eventual large fleet of Rafale, we need to rely on massive stocks of local weapons.