Many people on here, including myself are totally against spending 20 Bil$, on a 4.5th gen Foreign Aircraft, that too, in the era of 5th gen fighters. There are several alternative soluations suggested, and I though I come up with mine too.(Though that wont change anything,lol)
If MMRCA is actually signed in 2015, the first 16 Aircrafts wont be delievered before 2018, followed by 8 each in 2019 and 2020. Thus by 2020, IAF would have 32 Rafales.
On the other hand, Tejas production goes something like this approximately - 2 in 2014, 8 in 2015, 8 in 2016, 14 in 2017 , 14 in 2018, Approximately completing the order of 46 Tejas(40 IAF+6 IN) by 2018.
Though HAL has claimed that it would pump up the production to 16 a year, being on the conservative side, im choosing to take 14 instead.
Now Tejas mk2 does not enter service before 2021-22.
I would suggest Order 20 more Tejas mk1s...14 in 2019 , 6 in 2020. For 600 mil$. i.e 30mil$ per aircraft.
Correct me if Im wrong, but the last 40 "Super Sukhois" are to be directly delivered by Russia. IAF already has about 200 MKIs, so HAL is to manufacture about 30 more, which would be completed by 2016. Order 30 more MKIs which will be delievered during 2017-2018, for 2.4Bil$...i.e 80Mil$ each.
This way the IAF is inducting 50 Aircrafs by 2020 for just 3 Bil$, making full use of its existing manufacturing facilities.
Now the challenging part is with the Tejas mk2. Out of a requirement of 126 Aircrafts, 50 was made up by the MKI and Tejas. 76 to go which HAS TO BE fullfilled by the Tejas mk2. I.e Order 76 Extra Tejas mk2. That means 199 tejas mk2 (83 initial IAF order + 40 IN + 76 Extra) This really has to be made up in good time, by involving Private players and more manufacturing facilities. The 199 Tejas mk2 can be delivered in 10 Years, with 20/Year production.
Innovative planning can pump up the production to 30 a year, which is the challenging part.
The Extra 76 Tejas mk2 will cost 3.8Bil$ @ 50mil$ per aircraft.
In conclusion, right now choosing to order 20 more Tejas mk1 and 30 more MKIs is the immidiate smart thing to do. That would make sure IAF gets 50 in very quick time.(as it keeps complainian about its depleting fleet)
Also by this combination, the 126 Aircrafts will cost 6.8 Bil$, as against MMRCA's 15-20Bil$.
Also it would boost the indigenous aviation industries and make way for exports, and could also make way for a Stealth 5th Gen Tejas mk3 along with the HAL AMCA.