J20 Stealth Fighter

[rockdog]

 

[rockdog]

13th birthday of J20 today! Time flies!

J20 Stealth Fighter

Congratulations to Chinese. :panda:

defenceforumindia.com

 

[SexyChineseLady]

J-20A with WS-15:


Many others in hangars:

 

[Super Flanker]

So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.

I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?

Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US. It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.

Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.

I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?

Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US. It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.

Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.

Nothing far fetched about it. They've produced 300+ already, and they are going to ramp up production going forward.

 

[Hari Sud]

So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.

I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?

Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US. It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.

Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.

Yet to be seen by the outside world and evaluated. If it is copied and reverse engineered fighter then its performance is doubtful.

 

[no smoking]

I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?

Currently, US has 630 F-35 and they plan to have 1800 more. So eventually, they will have 2400 F-35. According to their Aisa-pivot policy, they are going to put 60%-70% of their forces in Asia-Pacific, which mainly target China. That means in the future, China is going face around 1600 F-35 from US alone, not to mention those F-35 possessed by Korean, Japanese and Australia.

So, 1000 J-20 is probably the minimum number Chinese need to have.

Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?

Well, if US can bear 2400 F-35, I don't see any problem for China to carry the cost of 1000 J-20.

Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US.

Certainly US has lots of problems with F-35 for now, but which new generation weapon don't have the similar issues in its beginning. Most of people miss the fact that Americans are gradually sorting them out. In fact, the both production and maintenance costs of F-35 have decreased a lot in these years.

It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.

Don't kid yourself. How many J-20 are deployed in Tibet? Based on India newspaper, the number is 6 (I simply doubt if they are really deploying there or just training there). Anyway, 6 out of 300 in Tibet, doesn't look like they are preparing a full scale war against India.

By the way, what is the purpose of this so called "full scale war"? A few thousands square km rocks?
The first question you have to ask is how you win this "full scale war". Obviously Chinese can't win without destroying all the major military logistic and industrial bases in Northern India. BUT, don't forget, India has nuclear weapons, striking the core part of India will escalate the war into the next level: nuclear war.

Let's say that China wins this "full scale war" and India surprisingly doesn't use her nuclear weapon , then what? Preparing the next "full scale war" since India will definitely come back. So, the result is Chinese has to spend the majority of her resources for these few thousands square km rocks.

If Chinese is such stupid, Americans will laugh their ass off.

Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.

Or maybe Indian government has a different conclusion: in the next 20 years, Chinese attention will be locked in her east.
Just look at India's military spending as share of GDP, obviously, Modi doesn't think he is going to face a "full scale war" soon.
Examining India’s Interim Defence Budget 2024-‘25 (orfonline.org)

 

[Bhartiya Sainik]

So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.
I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?

Looking at size of China & possible conflict with entire West/NATO + East Asian countries, 1000+ J-20 is not surprising just like 1000+ F-35 already produced.

Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?

The cost is not like Western capitalist nations.Unlike free market competition based capitalism, in communism philosphy nobody, individual or firm, can accumulate wealth beyond certain specified limit. Everything is by the people, for the people, discouraging too much financial gap between them. Some capitalist western firms are so powerful that they can influence, fund, manipulate governments & economy of small, developing, undeveloped countries. But in communist nations like Russia & China, everything is tightly controlled - economy, people, culture, trends, communications, utilities, projects, etc.
Our Indian constitution is Socialist & our economy is mixed one, something between Capitalism & Communism. Private companies do compete freely but the govt. can intervene & regulate any time. Both govt. & private firms exist in critical sectors of defence, energy, communications & commercial things but are under central govt. regulation.

It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.

The Indo-China border conflict at Ladakh & Arunachal Pradesh are significant but not that big to cause a full scale war. China fighting hard for barren lands & high altitude mountains is not worth, residence & logistics is a nightmare. Chinese rivers don't originate there. Our Brahamaputra river originates in China, known as Yarlung Tsangpo because of which China has eyed the entire North-East Indian region since ancient times but fortunately it is with us but Arunachal Pradesh becoms a buffer zone of conflict. One of our holiest pilgrimages the Kailash mountain is in China. I hope they won't invade & capture areas of Kedarnath, Badrinath, etc. There can be a significant war there but it will end in stalemate & also may trigger wars on other Chinese borders.
The conflict in South-China Sea for China with so many countries is much much more delicate from strategic & economical PoV. Chinese history w.r.t. Taiwan is controversial. If Taiwan was not island then the current conflict wouldn't exist today. Previous 20th century either broke or created turbulence in some nations on basis of Communism Vs Capitalism. Also, wherever there is an island near mainland, people tend to separate & liberate that island from mainland. Sri Lanka broke off from us long back.
Also, creating artificial islands in the south sea, militarizing them, blocking international sea & air transit routes, etc is obviously act of pyracy. South China Sea war will happen, either within this decade or later soon.

Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.

That's because we compare our requirement against Pakistan rather than global industrial ranking. R&D at ADA/NAL/HAL/DRDO did not develop like LM, NG, Boeing, & EU counterparts. ISRO has flourished more. Since independence, our naton is plagued by monarchy, political scams, suppressing our R&D & favoring import of arms. Our country's population increased 6 times since 1900s. Then western sanctions were imposed. Polished obsolete products were pushed to us in MRCA like F-15, F-16, F-18 instead of inviting for R&D for things like F-35, subs, tanks, etc. We are still not part of NGAD, F/A-XX, Tempest, FCAS like projects. We had to exit Su-57 FGFA. Not only we are still stuck with obsolete design of LCA but recreating its inflated duplicate MWF just adding canards with no treatment to remaining airframe. Only Israel, France have helped us with sub-systems but a major critical joint venture project output is yet to be seen. Out IT engineers prosper in the West in the interest of West & suffer here. Domestic R&D is simply not adequate. Business tycoons like Tata, Ambani, Adani, etc are only interested in catching a big production deal, not focussing on the technological level & ToT.
AMCA, KF-21 Boramae, FC-31/J-35, TFX Kaan, all these are on airframe design foot steps of F-22 & F-35 because none of these 4 countries have finance to do massive R&D which USA has done after World Wars to test & create X & Y series of totally new concepts. Some USA firms also wasted money on many impractical concepts too in past but it diminished later. Reasons of failure or delays can be many - cultural, political, industrial, financial, etc but still citing reasons doesn't work, actions speak more than words.
Anyways, our current generation is much more qualified, getting global exposure, so if all future govts. support domestic R&D then we can hope to bridge the gap with West by end of this century.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Production per year is already at around 100 per year. In 10 years there will be 1000 new J-20s plus the 300 already built. But that is only if production rate don't change. There are statements that say the full capacity of the three lines at CAC is 40 a piece so the ultimate total is 120 per year.

Then there are J-35 and the possible air force J-31 version. Those would be in the hundreds if not breaching a thousand as well.

In 10 years, many of the J-10s, J-11s, SU-30MKKs and JH-7As will be retiring so the J-20 and J-35 will be needed to replace them.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

Production looks like it is switching over to the J-20A with WS-15 from J-20 with WS-10C:

 

[rockdog]

Production per year is already at around 100 per year. In 10 years there will be 1000 new J-20s plus the 300 already built. But that is only if production rate don't change. There are statements that say the full capacity of the three lines at CAC is 40 a piece so the ultimate total is 120 per year.

Then there are J-35 and the possible air force J-31 version. Those would be in the hundreds if not breaching a thousand as well.

In 10 years, many of the J-10s, J-11s, SU-30MKKs and JH-7As will be retiring so the J-20 and J-35 will be needed to replace them.

People as stock market analyzer, said there already 3-4 production lines for J20 with each 20-24 J20 production rate. And there will be 1000-1500 J31/J35 demand, 700 J16 as bomb truck.

China has 40% of world production capability, so 2500-3000 5th fighters it's not that unreasonable.

 

[aditya10r]

People as stock market analyzer, said there already 3-4 production lines for J20 with each 20-24 J20 production rate. And there will be 1000-1500 J31/J35 demand, 700 J16 as bomb truck.

China has 40% of world production capability, so 2500-3000 5th fighters it's not that unreasonable.

What are you gonna do with J-10s?
You guys have 600+ J-10s which are less than 20 years old and still have another 15-20 years of life left in them and its coming out of Chengdu like Pancakes.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

What are you gonna do with J-10s?
You guys have 600+ J-10s which are less than 20 years old and still have another 15-20 years of life left in them and its coming out of Chengdu like Pancakes.

J-10 batches have slowed down and might have stopped except for exports to Pakistan.

In fact, there are stories that even the J-10 lines for exports are being moved from Chengdu to Guizhou.

 

[aditya10r]

J-10 batches have slowed down and might have stopped except for exports to Pakistan.

In fact, there are stories that even the J-10 lines for exports are being moved from Chengdu to Guizhou.

I asked what was going to happen to the J-10s in your Air Force's inventory. They still have quite a lot of life left in them. Are you guys gonna retire them prematurely or sell them off to willing customers?

 

[SexyChineseLady]

I asked what was going to happen to the J-10s in your Air Force's inventory. They still have quite a lot of life left in them. Are you guys gonna retire them prematurely or sell them off to willing customers?

I see no reason why they would retire them prematurely. Chengdu is already transitioning production away from J-10 to the J-20 just like they transitioned from the J-7 to the J-10. There were still J-7 units in 2023.

 

[aditya10r]

I see no reason why they would retire them prematurely. Chengdu is already transitioning production away from J-10 to the J-20 just like they transitioned from the J-7 to the J-10. There were still J-7 units in 2023.

So by 2035, PLAAF Inventory will include 600+ J-10s, 800+ J-11's and J-16s and 1000+ J-20s. Holy sweet baby christ, that is 2400+ combat aircrafts.

 

[SexyChineseLady]

So by 2035, PLAAF Inventory will include 600+ J-10s, 800+ J-11's and J-16s and 1000+ J-20s. Holy sweet baby christ, that is 2400+ combat aircrafts.

Many of the J-10As and J-11s would have flown for 30 years by then. They would be due for natural retirement. China flies its fighters a lot -- intercepts with Japan and RoC are in the thousands over the years -- so the hours are even higher than just the years would indicate.

Any let up in activity and US-Allied aircraft would be patrolling up to the Chinese coast line. So more aircraft is needed. The same strategy exists in the air with planes as in the sea with ships. Overwhelming numbers from the industrial complex to guarantee that no one wants to fight. Any less, you'd be like Iraq or Grenada because the white man will see little risk in starting a fight with their experienced military.

 

[shiphone]

there are two generation of J10s: J10/10A and J10B/C...of course J10C is still one of the 3 Musketeers and backbone of the figher fleet. on the other hand, the J10/10A(commissioned since 2006) actually became the 2nd line fighter. and they are disappearing in the daily news. these 200 old varient were distributed and concentrate in some combat units( a PLAAF fighter combat unit strength is over 30). another outlet is the Flying Academy for Advanced fly training purpose. J10A and J11B/BS were reassigned to these Academies years ago...

(a J-10A belongs to the flight training brigade)

it seems the J10A and J11B won't have the decent MLU, they will keep the current configuration and waiting for the successor - besides the J-20 , the J-31(J-35 is the naval varient) is around corner .

 

[rockdog]

So by 2035, PLAAF Inventory will include 600+ J-10s, 800+ J-11's and J-16s and 1000+ J-20s. Holy sweet baby christ, that is 2400+ combat aircrafts.

and J31/J35 production will be on, the Shenyang side is prepared.

 

[MiG-29SMT]

So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.

I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?

Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US. It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.

Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.

Fighter aircraft are not decisive weapons, despite the impression for fans they are, they are not.

These are really decisive weapons

ICBMs, Submarines, Cruise missiles armed with nukes.
Biological weapons, since they target humans and not infrastructure.
India has enough weapons to assure J-20 is not a decisive weapon.

Add J-20 has not VTOL capability, it can not fly like Harriers or F-35B

you can hide a J-35B almost any where.

airstrips are prone to be targeted and are easy to spot.

F-35 also is stealthier than J-20.

why? easy less reflectors, no ventral fins and no canards with dihedral.
Add J-20 is bigger than F-35 so the radar energy is higher due lo a larger surface and volume despite it has similar shape, smaller in stealth is better always.

If it comes to conventional war J-20 has practicality versus nations armed with conventional weapons such as Taiwan, Vietnam or Japan; however versus India having subs and allies like the USA and England means basically the threat of nuclear war is real.
Russia has Tu-160 even USA has B-2s and B-21 because long range armed nuclear cruise missiles allow Tu-160 stay out of the range of the enemies territory.

in a full blown war, radioactivity in India means the aquifers and winds will pollute China too and once water is polluted in the Himalayas do not mean anything since hymalayas are the water source of Asia.

Millions of people dependent on Himalayan snowmelt for water face a "very serious" risk of shortages this year after one of the lowest rates of snowfall, scientists warned Monday.

Snowmelt is the source of about a quarter of the total water flow of 12 major river basins that originate high in the region, the report said.

"This is a wake-up call for researchers, policymakers and downstream communities," said report author Sher Muhammad, from the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

Low snow on the Himalayas threatens water security

Millions of people dependent on snowmelt for water face a 'very serious' risk of shortages this year after one of the lowest rates of snowfall.

www.japantimes.co.jp

While everyone’s anxiously watching and analysing the events unravelling in the South China Sea, there’s another resource conflict involving China that also deserves attention. In the Himalayas, China and India are competing for valuable hydropower and water resources on the Yarlung Tsangpo–Brahmaputra River. The dispute offers some important lessons for regional cooperation (on more than just water), and highlights what’s at stake if China and India mismanage their resource conflict

China, India and water across the Himalayas | The Strategist

While everyone’s anxiously watching and analysing the events unravelling in the South China Sea, there’s another resource conflict involving China that also deserves attention. In the Himalayas, China and India are competing for valuable hydropower ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

J-20 is just a diplomatic weapon, Biological weapons are far more decisive and dangerous.