Nothing far fetched about it. They've produced 300+ already, and they are going to ramp up production going forward.So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.
I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?
Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US. It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.
Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.
Yet to be seen by the outside world and evaluated. If it is copied and reverse engineered fighter then its performance is doubtful.So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.
I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?
Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US. It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.
Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.
Currently, US has 630 F-35 and they plan to have 1800 more. So eventually, they will have 2400 F-35. According to their Aisa-pivot policy, they are going to put 60%-70% of their forces in Asia-Pacific, which mainly target China. That means in the future, China is going face around 1600 F-35 from US alone, not to mention those F-35 possessed by Korean, Japanese and Australia.I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
Well, if US can bear 2400 F-35, I don't see any problem for China to carry the cost of 1000 J-20.Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?
Certainly US has lots of problems with F-35 for now, but which new generation weapon don't have the similar issues in its beginning. Most of people miss the fact that Americans are gradually sorting them out. In fact, the both production and maintenance costs of F-35 have decreased a lot in these years.Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US.
Don't kid yourself. How many J-20 are deployed in Tibet? Based on India newspaper, the number is 6 (I simply doubt if they are really deploying there or just training there). Anyway, 6 out of 300 in Tibet, doesn't look like they are preparing a full scale war against India.It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.
Or maybe Indian government has a different conclusion: in the next 20 years, Chinese attention will be locked in her east.Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.
Looking at size of China & possible conflict with entire West/NATO + East Asian countries, 1000+ J-20 is not surprising just like 1000+ F-35 already produced.So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.
I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
The cost is not like Western capitalist nations.Unlike free market competition based capitalism, in communism philosphy nobody, individual or firm, can accumulate wealth beyond certain specified limit. Everything is by the people, for the people, discouraging too much financial gap between them. Some capitalist western firms are so powerful that they can influence, fund, manipulate governments & economy of small, developing, undeveloped countries. But in communist nations like Russia & China, everything is tightly controlled - economy, people, culture, trends, communications, utilities, projects, etc.Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?
The Indo-China border conflict at Ladakh & Arunachal Pradesh are significant but not that big to cause a full scale war. China fighting hard for barren lands & high altitude mountains is not worth, residence & logistics is a nightmare. Chinese rivers don't originate there. Our Brahamaputra river originates in China, known as Yarlung Tsangpo because of which China has eyed the entire North-East Indian region since ancient times but fortunately it is with us but Arunachal Pradesh becoms a buffer zone of conflict. One of our holiest pilgrimages the Kailash mountain is in China. I hope they won't invade & capture areas of Kedarnath, Badrinath, etc. There can be a significant war there but it will end in stalemate & also may trigger wars on other Chinese borders.It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.
That's because we compare our requirement against Pakistan rather than global industrial ranking. R&D at ADA/NAL/HAL/DRDO did not develop like LM, NG, Boeing, & EU counterparts. ISRO has flourished more. Since independence, our naton is plagued by monarchy, political scams, suppressing our R&D & favoring import of arms. Our country's population increased 6 times since 1900s. Then western sanctions were imposed. Polished obsolete products were pushed to us in MRCA like F-15, F-16, F-18 instead of inviting for R&D for things like F-35, subs, tanks, etc. We are still not part of NGAD, F/A-XX, Tempest, FCAS like projects. We had to exit Su-57 FGFA. Not only we are still stuck with obsolete design of LCA but recreating its inflated duplicate MWF just adding canards with no treatment to remaining airframe. Only Israel, France have helped us with sub-systems but a major critical joint venture project output is yet to be seen. Out IT engineers prosper in the West in the interest of West & suffer here. Domestic R&D is simply not adequate. Business tycoons like Tata, Ambani, Adani, etc are only interested in catching a big production deal, not focussing on the technological level & ToT.Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.
People as stock market analyzer, said there already 3-4 production lines for J20 with each 20-24 J20 production rate. And there will be 1000-1500 J31/J35 demand, 700 J16 as bomb truck.Production per year is already at around 100 per year. In 10 years there will be 1000 new J-20s plus the 300 already built. But that is only if production rate don't change. There are statements that say the full capacity of the three lines at CAC is 40 a piece so the ultimate total is 120 per year.
Then there are J-35 and the possible air force J-31 version. Those would be in the hundreds if not breaching a thousand as well.
In 10 years, many of the J-10s, J-11s, SU-30MKKs and JH-7As will be retiring so the J-20 and J-35 will be needed to replace them.
What are you gonna do with J-10s?People as stock market analyzer, said there already 3-4 production lines for J20 with each 20-24 J20 production rate. And there will be 1000-1500 J31/J35 demand, 700 J16 as bomb truck.
China has 40% of world production capability, so 2500-3000 5th fighters it's not that unreasonable.
J-10 batches have slowed down and might have stopped except for exports to Pakistan.What are you gonna do with J-10s?
You guys have 600+ J-10s which are less than 20 years old and still have another 15-20 years of life left in them and its coming out of Chengdu like Pancakes.
J-10 batches have slowed down and might have stopped except for exports to Pakistan.
In fact, there are stories that even the J-10 lines for exports are being moved from Chengdu to Guizhou.
I see no reason why they would retire them prematurely. Chengdu is already transitioning production away from J-10 to the J-20 just like they transitioned from the J-7 to the J-10. There were still J-7 units in 2023.
I asked what was going to happen to the J-10s in your Air Force's inventory. They still have quite a lot of life left in them. Are you guys gonna retire them prematurely or sell them off to willing customers?
So by 2035, PLAAF Inventory will include 600+ J-10s, 800+ J-11's and J-16s and 1000+ J-20s. Holy sweet baby christ, that is 2400+ combat aircrafts.I see no reason why they would retire them prematurely. Chengdu is already transitioning production away from J-10 to the J-20 just like they transitioned from the J-7 to the J-10. There were still J-7 units in 2023.
Many of the J-10As and J-11s would have flown for 30 years by then. They would be due for natural retirement. China flies its fighters a lot -- intercepts with Japan and RoC are in the thousands over the years -- so the hours are even higher than just the years would indicate.So by 2035, PLAAF Inventory will include 600+ J-10s, 800+ J-11's and J-16s and 1000+ J-20s. Holy sweet baby christ, that is 2400+ combat aircrafts.
and J31/J35 production will be on, the Shenyang side is prepared.So by 2035, PLAAF Inventory will include 600+ J-10s, 800+ J-11's and J-16s and 1000+ J-20s. Holy sweet baby christ, that is 2400+ combat aircrafts.
Fighter aircraft are not decisive weapons, despite the impression for fans they are, they are not.So according to recent reports, China is aiming to produce and field 1000 J-20s by 2035. This may very well just be a propaganda inflated number by the CCP but let's assume for a minute that it's true.
I mean what sort of a Goal do the Chinese want to achieve by churning out a thousand J-20 stealth fighters?
Won't having such a huge fleet of advanced stealth fifth generation aircraft be maintainance intensive and expensive too?
Would the Chinese be able to bear the costs? What is the actual need for such a huge fleet?
Be it truth or propaganda, this development indeed has caused a lot of panic within the US. It seems to me that the Chinese are preparing to fight a full scale war against India and we are seriously under prepared for the same.
Some facts: Right now, as of writing this post. AMCA's TD has not even been rolled out, AMCA has not even made it's FF. And China is rolling out dozens of J-20s every year like Pancakes.
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