Let me muse over this
Pre 2018 order
S2 - Arihant
S3 - Aridhaman
S4 - Arighat
.
.
Post 2018
S2 - Arihant
S4 - Arighat
S3 - Aridhaman
So after Arihant , Aridhaman was being built then suddenly news comes that Arighat is actually the next boat inline after Arihant. Aridhaman simply vanishes from the equation as per MSM media reports.
1. Arihant 4 tubes
2. Follow on to Arihant ie Aridhaman 8 tubes ( according to some 4 tubes )
3. Follow on to Aridhaman ie S-4 ( now Arighat ) 12 tubes ( according to some 8 tubes )
Considering if the above is true
Ie Aridhaman 8 (or 4 tubes) , Arighat 12 (or 8 tubes) as per pre 2018 info , why the heck did Aridhaman get jumped over by Arighat ?
One plausible reason according to me is
Somewhere down the line as Aridhaman construction was in works or close to be finished , the designers / manufacturers working on the design / construction of the next follow on SSBN Arighat with 12 ( or 8 tubes ) must have had gathered enough confidence with the Arighat construction to justify and take the risk of retrofitting the Aridhaman with additional tubes and bring it to the Arighat capability ie Aridhaman will have 12 SILOS , ( this no is as per my info for some it will be 8 silos either way makes no difference since no of Aridhaman silos = no of Arighat silos , I will let the reader choose what they want to believe either 12 or 8 )
So operationally Arighat got prioritised for launch while Aridhaman got delegated for retrofit to bring it at par with Arighat.
Arihant with 4 tubes was the first of its class so makes sense for the lesser no of tubes
But a follow on sub with 8 (or 4 ) tubes don't make any sense when the construction of the next follow on sub with 12 (or 8 ) is in the works already almost parallel construction. If confidence is high for the latest iteration then those changes can be back ported.
Retrofitting is easier in terms of complexity and costs if changes in Hull are made before the onboard reactor is switched on ie before launch
1. Aridhaman and Arighat share the base template of Arihant so whatever design changes are in Arighat can be implemented to ( older but then yet to be launched ) Aridhaman too.
2. Maximize capability , limited silos in Arihant can be forgiven. But at approx 3 billion dollars per boat and importantly with validated and implemented design on a newer boat it does not make sense if those capabilities are not retrofitted to earlier versions when the construction of the predecessor is yet to be completed.
Aridhaman and Arighat were being constructed almost simultaneously but Aridhaman was ahead initially ( so i believe later on Arighat got prioritised and Aridhaman construction got pushed back for the retrofit ie additional silo plugs same as Arighat )
All these happened ( if it happened ) much before 2018 .
Please note this is a personal view so reader discretion is advised and no point in fighting over it if anyone wants to , I ain't joining