PM MITRA aims to achieve $100B export by 2030. I think it's too slow and most of the market leaving China will be captured by Vietnam, BD and other SEA countries.
Vietnam: They are also doing screw driver giri. They are benefitting from being near to China especially more so being near to their electronic manfacturing hubs like Shenzen. How many parts supplier they have for OEM's? Well you won't find many. They sure have skilled talent at the bottom to absorb manufacturing/assembling but not much at the top. Moreover, it is a country of just 100 million so there is not much economies of scale. At some point very soon their labor will become expensive. Look at their debacle with Vinfast cars.
Bangladesh: Don't make me laugh. They will not be able to upgrade from underwear manufacturing anytime soon. Even that underwear manufacturing is only happening because of GSP status given by EU and the cotton supplied by India. Electronics require totally different environment. Just cheap labor alone will not lure OEM's.
South East Asia: Yes, they are already successful to an extent. Most of the electric trimmers/shavers I use come from Indonesia. The parts might come from elsewhere but they are having some success but only at their lower level. Succeeding at making big ticket electronic items like Smart phones, TV's, Audio systems, Laptops, PCs are long way off.
India has skilled labor at the top to offer talent and support although we are lagging in Semiconductor manufacturing. Now that there is already Micron OSAT is under construction and soon hopefully we will have a 28nm node fab, we will be in a unique position to offer far more than any country. We already have chip design talent in house.
Because of Micron OSAT more companies are showing interest in OSAT plants. And with Indian companies also getting into semiconductor industry we will see visible change by 2030.