Indian Ballistic Missile Defense System

Advaidhya Tiwari

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You are writing like a babu. Only nearsightedness. When Pakistan allows Chinese to deploy their ASAT weapon in Balochistan then all babus will run here and there.
With this mentality one can't become a super power in technology.
As I said, there is nothing anyone can do about ASAT missiles. China can use them against India but so can USA> Don't forget that USA has great relation with Pakistan and their allies of Arabland. So, what is the point you want to convey? India should do magic?
 

Advaidhya Tiwari

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Why you think that BMD can't be deployed on ships sailing in Arabian sea?
Because Pakistani missiles will be flying at the direction of India from Pakistan and will not be coming via arabian sea. Only Arabs can fire missile from Arabian sea. So, what is the point of keeping BMD ships on the Sea?

The ships also have to be about 20km from Pakistani coast due to 12 nautical mile law for marine waters. The ships have to be further apart in case Pakistani ships are nearby as minimum distance of engagement applies and coming too close will be considered hostile. So, keeping a ship abut 25-30km from Pakistani coast will serve no purpose. It is better to keep these BMD on Indian border itself.

The usage of ship based BMD is only for enemies across sea/ocean, not for those who sit next door
 

charlie

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The first stage boost phase lasts about 1-2 minutes. If Pakistan launches its missile from interior parts, about 100km interior, it will be difficult for Indian missiles to travel 100km horizontal distance in addition to vertical distance in the limited time available. It is impossible to hit during boosting phase as don't have enough time

check the first video, command and control is the biggest issue in boost phase launch..........................................
 
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Jameson Emoni

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Because Pakistani missiles will be flying at the direction of India from Pakistan and will not be coming via arabian sea. Only Arabs can fire missile from Arabian sea. So, what is the point of keeping BMD ships on the Sea?

The ships also have to be about 20km from Pakistani coast due to 12 nautical mile law for marine waters. The ships have to be further apart in case Pakistani ships are nearby as minimum distance of engagement applies and coming too close will be considered hostile. So, keeping a ship abut 25-30km from Pakistani coast will serve no purpose. It is better to keep these BMD on Indian border itself.

The usage of ship based BMD is only for enemies across sea/ocean, not for those who sit next door
Your thinking is simplistic for it assumes that Pakistan is the only country capable of potential for hostility towards us. There is absolute need for India to have BMD system both in oceans and on the land borders.
 

Advaidhya Tiwari

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Okay let's forget the ASAT point of view. Now even if we ignore other countries what makes you think that Pakistani BMs will not fly over arabian sea?

To hit southern most part and Lkdweep or other assets in Arabian sea like IN fleets they may launch tactical BM or Shaheen 2. What will you do about it?
For that we need mid-course interceptor which intercepts missile at over 500km altitude which will be similar to ASAT missile. Only USA has such system called GMD. Each interceptor missile costs $75 million and the system is not fully developed. India has not even started such program for mid course intercept

So, the mid course interception is not meaningful for ships staying on Arabian sea. Ships on Arabian sea are worth only if they can do booster phase interception which I have given reason as to why such boost phase interception is difficult
 

Advaidhya Tiwari

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Not really.

For USA it is difficult to kill a Russian missile in boost phase due to vast distance. But for India to kill any Pakistani missile in boost phase would rather be possible.

Any missile which is in boost phase is slower than terminal phase. So for India to hit any Pakistani missile in boost phase will be possible due to close distance from two countries.

The only challenge is you need a long range missile atleast 700km of range and speed.
The missile is detected way before it enters terminal phase and hence it is easier to hit it at terminal phase than boost phase. During boost phase, one gets the launch detection only after the missile is launched and going up. The problem is twofold:
  1. The time for radar to detect the location of launch will take a few seconds after launch which will delay the launch of ABM by that time plus 5 seconds response time
  2. The ABM also has boost phase which is also as slow as the boost phase of Pakistani ballistic missile. The ABM does not have supersonic speed at launch but also has to accelerate which is time consuming
  3. The distance between ABM and BM is at likely to be about 50km or more horizontally. This has to be covered in addition to the lead time in launch of BM which increases vertical distance.
You are assuming that ABM will hit the BM at boost phase because the boost phase is slow but as point 2 above states, the ABM also has boost phase which is also slow! So, the slowness of the enemy missile is compensated by slowness of our missile. So, there is no net advantage
 

Advaidhya Tiwari

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Yes and I have already mentioned about the range and speed of ABM. Which needs to be designed. Coming to accurate detection it not really a problem. The detection at terminal phase is much difficult due to higher speed and smaller size of the RV.
How will you make any missile fly fast from the beginning? There is no missile which is capable of doing that from the begin
 

Jameson Emoni

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By taking advantage of the BM trajectory.
Any BM launched by Pakistan will have parabolic path which is longer. But to take down the Pakistani BM you would need an ABM to follow strict linear path . By that you are shortening the distance to reach while second stage is burning by pre calculation of the path to be taken by BM.
Of course ABM would need to have powerful motors and light weight.
... and since ABM needs to cover smaller distance in comparison to the BM, it needs to carry less fuel; this means it is lighter in design and can travel faster to catch up with the BM. So it is not impossible to shoot down a ballistic missile.

Having said that, I do not think BMD is a complete deterrent against ever improving BM systems. I heard that Russia is in the process of testing new intercontinental cruise missiles. US already has them. The dictum, offense is the best defense still holds true, I guess.
 

Enquirer

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By taking advantage of the BM trajectory.
Any BM launched by Pakistan will have parabolic path which is longer. But to take down the Pakistani BM you would need an ABM to follow strict linear path . By that you are shortening the distance to reach while second stage is burning by pre calculation of the path to be taken by BM.
Of course ABM would need to have powerful motors and light weight.
Seems like flights of fancy unencumbered by the laws of physics :)
 

Craigs

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Not really.

For USA it is difficult to kill a Russian missile in boost phase due to vast distance. But for India to kill any Pakistani missile in boost phase would rather be possible.

Any missile which is in boost phase is slower than terminal phase. So for India to hit any Pakistani missile in boost phase will be possible due to close distance from two countries.

The only challenge is you need a long range missile atleast 700km of range and speed.
The purpose of ABM is to increase the cost of the adversary to target us. ABM is used in terminal stage. It is used to protect our cities from IRBMs and in future ICBMs. Even if it is 80% efficient then we have now seeded a doubt in our adversary about the effectiveness of their arsenal. To remove doubt they have to expand their arsenal to ensure total destruction. This is too expensive even for China forget about Pakistan. Imagine this Pakistan has no protection against our missiles but we have something that will protect us from 80% (worst case) of their missiles. Also, every time they launch a missile, the position of their launch facility or TEL is exposed, which we can then destroy with Brahmos. Check how many TELs pakisan has. Once their launch facilities are gone, they have no offensive capabilities at all.
 

Enquirer

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What fancy unencumbered by the laws? A curved distance is longer than s linear one.
You still want to knock out the BM in the boost phase, right?
Also, BMs don't travel in a curved path because those scientists who designed it didn't have the mathematical insight that you're propounding! The parabolic path is the most efficient.

Coming to the intercepting missile (in boost phase):
The boost phase is around 0-100 kms altitude from the launch point.
Assuming the launch is detected right at the time of BM launch, how long will be the reaction time? Go ahead and assume any value of your choice!
Then the intercepting missile needs to travel 200-300 kms laterally (assuming BMs are launched from deep inside) and an altitude of 50-100 kms - all this in time to intercept even though it had a lag of 'reaction time'.
How much faster should the interceptor missile travel in order to make up the longer distance in a shorter time?
Now if you attribute interceptor missile a velocity thrice that of the BM; To propel the missile at thrice the velocity the engine power needs to be around 3x, consuming 3x fuel rate! (x, y notation just for anecdotal notational purposes only. It's not accurate math)
If velocity is thrice that of BM then the drag associated would be 9 times as much as that of the BM (owing just to the velocity parameter). To overcome the additional 8y drag, the interceptor missile needs 8y more powerful engine consuming 8y more fuel.
So, cumulatively the missile needs 2x+8y more power engine consuming 2x+8y more fuel.
If the chosen 'reaction time' results in 4x veloctity requirement; then the missile will need 3x+15y more engine power consuming 3x+15y more fuel.

(Know that a lower altitude interception point will dramatically increase the velocity requirement as such pushing the weight & power attributes!)

All of this could make the interceptor missile size/weight comparable to the BM itself (assuming the weight owing to the larger engine & more fuel to be equivalent to the warhead of the BM).
Know that most of the BMs fuel is consumed in overcoming the gravity and drag in the initial stages of the trajectory - mid course has zero drag, and it almost coasts due to initial momentum!

Now that you have a fair idea of the size/weight of the interceptor missile, you should see how many of such missiles (missile batteries) are required along the border (closer to the border better the chances of interception). Also mull on how secure such large size missiles would be close to the border. Moving the missiles farther from the border will only require more powerful engine (and more fuel) to cover the additional distance in the short window for interception.

I intentionally left specific data & calculations out of the explanation - as an exercise to you, that might force you to think and understand.
 
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Enquirer

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Altitude is okay. But the horizonatal distance will be some what less, because when a missile is launched from 100 km inside Pak from border, in the mean time it would also cover the horizontal distance along with vertical. So the BM will also be closing towards the ABM.

BM achieves it's tremendous velocity during the re entry of the RV which is 4-5km/s not before that. Before that is is only a super-sonic missile accelerating further.

So you need a fast moving missile with range of 200kms atleast. The advantage is it will be a sure shot kill. This is very much possible.
if BM is slow in its initial trajectory, how does your magic interceptor go onto being 'fast' even when in its upward trajectory without incurring excess drag and requiring more powerful engine that guzzles more fuel?? Do the principles of propulsion & rocketry differ between these two missiles?

I have given enough hints for you to understand. If you still believe otherwise, I'll leave you to your own devices.
 

Craigs

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The cost factor comes into play when you want to limit the destruction. How much worth in billions the destruction can been inflicted and how much more can be prevented. On that basis the device and ABM's are developed Even if for Pakistan it costs them 100billion dollars a decade they will maintain it. Because those 100 billions dollars can inflict damage of upto trillion dollar in India.

What ABM does is we minimize that trillion dollar damage to some what half because we have more to lose. But it can be never below 100 billion dollars.

With China the ABM concept works better because they have more to lose and India too, but as India can protect itself somehow and minimize the chinese can't.
What are you talking about. Pakistan cannot sustain any costs - they don't have money to buy toilet paper right now and you are talking about 100s of billions?? They cannot spend money that they do not have. Also, as I mentioned before we are so close to them that we can put 24x7 surveillance (both human and electronic) on all their launch facilities. In the best case we detect their TELs and other launch facilities before they are able to launch anything and in the worst case they launch and we detect it immediately and destroy their launch facilities (we don't need fancy space based detectors either). If they do manage to launch any missile towards our big cities it will be taken care of in terminal phase. We **may** have to sustain some damage and how much is up to us to determine - so answer this question - How much are you willing to lose to prevent the green flag from flying over our important buildings? Launch over small cities is pointless as the accuracy of their missiles are so bad that they may miss it altogether. One more thing the puny nukes (5-20kt) that pakistan claim to have are not powerful enough to cause any significant damage to small indian cities especially if they miss their mark. Ergo, they will only try to target big cities in the hope of doing some damage.


Even so we have enough capacity (and money) to buy all kinds of ABM assets - so many of our small cities will also be under the same ABM umbrella.

With China there is no other option, it is offensive defense. Make sure we have enough land and sea based assets to overwhelm their ABM system (if they have any) and maintain detente. Thing is we can easily afford it as we have all the assets manufactured in house - we don't have to go begging like pakistan.
 

Craigs

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if BM is slow in its initial trajectory, how does your magic interceptor go onto being 'fast' even when in its upward trajectory without incurring excess drag and requiring more powerful engine that guzzles more fuel?? Do the principles of propulsion & rocketry differ between these two missiles?

I have given enough hints for you to understand. If you still believe otherwise, I'll leave you to your own devices.
BPI is terribly expensive. It is easier and cheaper to take out their launch facilities before they can launch anything. We have many dual use Geosynchronous satellites and enough agents in Pakistan (they are much more corrupt than us) that we can detect and destroy it if they so much as start mobilising against us. With S400 (and any MRSAM we can build in time) we can also bottle up their air force even before they have a chance to take off. Only thing remaining is their submarines with SLCMs - for that we need protection against CMs ergo the NASAMs buy. Also the various QRSAM systems being developed inducted. Anyway with diesel electric subs once they launch they are dead.
 

indus

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Why are we even discussing BMD against Pakistan. When they have decided to go senile and fire tactical nukes. Which are both low yield and less in range. They would be long dead by the time they think of launching IRBMs on us. BMD shield is more for protection against Chinese. They have the MiRV tech, and the recent test was to test BMD in MiRV enviornment. Where a no' of RVs are launched, and real ones are to be targeted amongst decoys.
 

Advaidhya Tiwari

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Why are we even discussing BMD against Pakistan. When they have decided to go senile and fire tactical nukes. Which are both low yield and less in range. They would be long dead by the time they think of launching IRBMs on us. BMD shield is more for protection against Chinese. They have the MiRV tech, and the recent test was to test BMD in MiRV enviornment. Where a no' of RVs are launched, and real ones are to be targeted amongst decoys.
I don't see any reason China would use ballistic missiles on India. China has no big reason to start an all out war with Inia
 

Craigs

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Why are we even discussing BMD against Pakistan. When they have decided to go senile and fire tactical nukes. Which are both low yield and less in range. They would be long dead by the time they think of launching IRBMs on us. BMD shield is more for protection against Chinese. They have the MiRV tech, and the recent test was to test BMD in MiRV enviornment. Where a no' of RVs are launched, and real ones are to be targeted amongst decoys.
Exactly - what is the point of trying BPI when you can just destroy the launch facilities before they have a chance to launch. For anything that they do try to launch - terminal phase interception is good enough. BPI is not foolproof either.
 

Craigs

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I don't see any reason China would use ballistic missiles on India. China has no big reason to start an all out war with Inia
Did China give you an affidavit on stamped paper that they will never target us? Especially when they have several IRBMs and MRBMs in Tibet pointed towards us.
 

Craigs

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If India tries to develop such tech only for experimental purpose and tries to take down the BM during boosting stage then Pakistan no matter what ever they launch , it will not reach India at all. Not even the 5-10 kt nasr. It will be a sure shot kill and if that happens then their blackmail is gone, they will never try to play foul with us.
You think nuclear weapon is their blackmail??? hahaha. Their real blackmail is threatening us with the consequences of a successful Indian strike on their facilities - Remember Syria and Europe. Do we have a solution for that?
 

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