India-Pakistan LoC/IB Skirmishes in the Aftermath of August 5 2019

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Chinese Navy seems to be preparing to counter Indian submarines with Pakistani help

COL. VINAYAK BHAT (RETD)2 February, 2018


Vinayak Bhat/ThePrint

Satellite images accessed by ThePrint suggest Chinese Navy conducted joint exercises with its Pakistani counterpart; has increased activities around India.

New Delhi: There has been a sharp rise in Chinese naval activity to map the Indian Ocean region, with survey vessels being observed even in the company of Pakistani warships at times, satellite images accessed by ThePrint suggest.

These activities around India indicate possible preparations for anti-submarine operations.

In the past year, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy or PLAN has been sending a large number of oceanographic survey ships to the Indian Ocean region. Besides, Chinese warships and nuclear submarines have been making port calls in Colombo for the past three years.

In February 2016, a PLAN Type 926 submarine tender was seen in Colombo, suggesting a continuous survey mission. A submarine tender is a type of ship that supports submarines.

The Type 926 submarine search and rescue tender #865 Liugongdao is known to travel along with China’s nuclear submarines. This ship is also the mother-ship of the world’s most advanced rescue submarines — the Type 7103 deep submergence rescue vessel (DSRV). The DSRV can dive up to 600 m and rescue up to 18 personnel from a ‘Kursk’ like incident.


Vinayak Bhat/ThePrint

The rescue submarine, however, was not observed on board the mother-ship when it was docked in Colombo. Satellite images accessed by ThePrint suggest that the DSRV was possibly on a special survey mission around Colombo.


Vinayak Bhat/ThePrint

More recently, PLAN’s top naval survey ship — the Type 636A hydrographic survey ship Haiyang #22 class, named after Chinese nuclear physicist Qian Sanqiang — was observed in a satellite image of 4 February 2017. This 130m-long marine comprehensive survey ship with a crew of 134 personnel can endure a journey of 15,000 nautical miles at speeds of 15 knots on its own steam.

The presence of Haiyang #22 in Colombo clearly indicates Chinese interest in surveying the Indian Ocean region for smoother submarine operations. Earlier this year, China conducted a joint exercise with the Pakistani Navy to survey the Makran Trench in the Persian Gulf–Arabian Sea region. The ship involved is PLAN’s modern Type 625C Shiyan 3 is an oceanographic survey ship.


Vinayak Bhat/ThePrint


Vinayak Bhat/ThePrint

It is surprising that the survey ship was on the west coast of India as of 18 January. The reasons are obvious — Shiyan 3 is conducting underwater surveys of areas in the Arabian Sea on India’s west coast.

The largest oceanographic survey catamaran in the world is undergoing sea trials in China’s Guangzhou. The length is a gigantic 90 m and beam 32 m. The ship is larger than USS Impeccable, which measures 85 m.


Vinayak Bhat/ThePrint

The ship is a small waterplane area twin hull (SWATH) type catamaran and looks very different than its predecessors. It has a humongous funnel at the centre of the ship. This suggests larger engines indicating longer endurance at sea. These ships are supposedly equipped with numerous modern and world-class measurement systems, including submarine geomorphology, submarine surface geological survey, ocean gravity, area temperatures, salinity, density, tide among others.

These ships act as force multipliers in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) for tracking adversaries’ submarines with oceanographic data collected. Their foray into the IOR suggests that China is preparing for an ASW in the region.
 

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Updated Dec 02, 2019 04:36pm

Whatever it takes

ASHRAF JEHANGIR QAZI


THE Indian lockdown of nine million Muslims in the Kashmir Valley is a third of a year old. Has India made a ‘major strategic blunder’ or has it pulled off a major fait accompli? In other words, is there a greater likelihood of India having to reverse its Aug 5 decision or is it effectively irreversible despite Pakistan’s vigorous diplomacy and the unprecedented international criticisms of India’s action?

This depends on (i) the durability of the Kashmiri resistance in India-held Kashmir under extreme Indian repression including the comprehensive and relentless targeting of the civilian population of the Valley; (ii) whether any significant political opposition to Modi’s Aug 5 decision develops in India; (iii) the response of the international community — particularly the major powers and especially the US — to the hideous human rights situation in the Valley which threatens to reach genocidal proportions as defined by the Genocide Convention of 1948; and (iv) the response of Pakistan to such a scenario which Genocide Watch says is already under way. Just read Arundhati Roy to know the monstrosity India is becoming under Modi!

The current assumptions and indications suggest:

the Kashmiri resistance cannot be eliminated short of genocidal measures against the people of the Valley who regard and support the resistance as their own;

(ii) there is no prospect of any politically significant opposition in India to Modi’s decision of Aug 5;

(iii) the international community may condemn, embarrass and annoy India because of its atrocities, but it will not halt and reverse the trend towards genocide because the major powers see Kashmir in the context of a much larger Eurasian struggle in which India strategically counts for more than Pakistan; and

(iv) apart from bellicose statements and some heating up of the Line of Control, Pakistan will by and large avoid military confrontation with India even if a full-blown genocide develops. Instead, it will intensify its diplomatic campaign in the hope of arousing the conscience of the international community sufficiently for it to take effective measures to restrain India.

Aug 5 has transformed Kashmir from a longer-term diplomatic challenge to an existential challenge for Pakistan.

Inside Pakistan, the government will be primarily concerned to pacify its own public opinion and counter charges of a dishonourable and shameful betrayal of the Kashmir cause which could seriously destabilise the country. It will be reduced to saving Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan itself from further Indian designs. India will massively interfere in AJK and GB to force a final settlement along or even beyond the LoC with the understanding if not approval of the US and the Western powers. China will provide diplomatic support to Pakistan while counselling ‘moderation’, the need to adopt a longer-term perspective on Kashmir, and ensuring continued territorial contiguity between Pakistan and China.

Inside IHK, India will seek to wipe out the entire Muslim leadership, or strike a deal with the previous puppet Muslim leadership, or craft a new puppet Muslim leadership, possibly with people like Muzzafar Baig and Altaf Bukhari, who may be persuaded to accept the fig leaf of a hollow restoration of Article 370 as a final settlement. The All Parties Hurriyat Conference will be targeted for liquidation. No matter how outrageous the human rights situation in Kashmir gets, the major powers, including China, will not tolerate the prospect of nuclear conflict.

Pakistan has described Kashmir as its ‘jugular vein’ without which it is incomplete and cannot survive. It has pledged its last breath and drop of blood in defence of the Kashmiri people. It has always said any stoppage of Pakistan’s waters would be a casus belli. Moreover, in the name of the freedom struggle or jihad for Kashmir the people of Pakistan have had to live in a security rather than development state. This has deprived them of the benefits of democracy, good governance, peace and development. The results of this political degeneration are today evident in the wretched daily news every day.

The honest choice before the prime minister of Pakistan is stark: either he tells the nation that the costs of stopping India from perpetrating genocide in the Valley are more than Pakistan can bear and, therefore, he has no option but to ‘accept the unacceptable’ for Pakistan to survive. Or he asserts that the costs of a disgraceful betrayal of the Kashmir cause, especially after the loss of the majority of Pakistan’s population in 1971, will render the country a failed state without meaning, purpose, a moral foundation and a future worth having. Accordingly, while he is ready to go the extra mile for peace with India and to negotiate an acceptable, just and principled Kashmir settlement, he will never countenance genocide in Kashmir no matter what the cost may be.

For such resolve to be credible it must also be part of a comprehensive national transformation of Pakistan from an elitist, corrupt and incoherent state that, despite its verbal jihad, is unwilling and unable to take any risks for any cause, to a functioning democratic, development and human rights state that is able to develop options and take risks to ensure freedom and justice for Kashmir and to chart a course for peaceful coexistence with India. Progress towards such a national transformation will itself generate the narratives and project the images required for the views of Pakistan, regarding the plight of the Kashmiris, to register internationally.

There are no risk-free options to stop genocide, save Kashmir, and avoid war with India. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent is meant to deter war not pursue war. But if the people of the Valley are threatened with genocide, as indeed they are, Pakistan’s deterrent must cover them. If this is rejected as wishful thinking there will be both genocide in the Valley and a slide towards war between India and Pakistan.

Aug 5, 2019 has transformed Kashmir from a longer-term diplomatic challenge to an existential challenge for Pakistan. Modi’s ‘Anschluss’ does not allow for incremental strategies. The prime minister must now do whatever it takes to ensure Pakistan no longer remains an irresolute and self-imprisoned soft state that surrenders its raison d’être.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

[email protected]

www.ashrafjqazi.com

Published in Dawn, December 2nd, 2019

LOL PUSSY CAMEL PISS DRINKER THINK THEY CAN TAKE DOWN INDIA WITH NUKES LMAO. ONE NUKE FROM INDIA CAN ERASE THE ENTIRE SHITHOLE FROM THE WORLD.
 
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This is Embarrassing. Instead of Giving out free Brownie Points for PorkiShitani Trolls and Camel Piss Drinker DG ISPR GayFool. The Indian Government Should be Silently Fixing the Issue and Helping Jawans with There Psychological Problems and PTSD. We can’t let this continue like this.
 

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Updated Dec 02, 2019 04:36pm

Whatever it takes

ASHRAF JEHANGIR QAZI


THE Indian lockdown of nine million Muslims in the Kashmir Valley is a third of a year old. Has India made a ‘major strategic blunder’ or has it pulled off a major fait accompli? In other words, is there a greater likelihood of India having to reverse its Aug 5 decision or is it effectively irreversible despite Pakistan’s vigorous diplomacy and the unprecedented international criticisms of India’s action?

This depends on (i) the durability of the Kashmiri resistance in India-held Kashmir under extreme Indian repression including the comprehensive and relentless targeting of the civilian population of the Valley; (ii) whether any significant political opposition to Modi’s Aug 5 decision develops in India; (iii) the response of the international community — particularly the major powers and especially the US — to the hideous human rights situation in the Valley which threatens to reach genocidal proportions as defined by the Genocide Convention of 1948; and (iv) the response of Pakistan to such a scenario which Genocide Watch says is already under way. Just read Arundhati Roy to know the monstrosity India is becoming under Modi!

The current assumptions and indications suggest:

the Kashmiri resistance cannot be eliminated short of genocidal measures against the people of the Valley who regard and support the resistance as their own;

(ii) there is no prospect of any politically significant opposition in India to Modi’s decision of Aug 5;

(iii) the international community may condemn, embarrass and annoy India because of its atrocities, but it will not halt and reverse the trend towards genocide because the major powers see Kashmir in the context of a much larger Eurasian struggle in which India strategically counts for more than Pakistan; and

(iv) apart from bellicose statements and some heating up of the Line of Control, Pakistan will by and large avoid military confrontation with India even if a full-blown genocide develops. Instead, it will intensify its diplomatic campaign in the hope of arousing the conscience of the international community sufficiently for it to take effective measures to restrain India.

Aug 5 has transformed Kashmir from a longer-term diplomatic challenge to an existential challenge for Pakistan.

Inside Pakistan, the government will be primarily concerned to pacify its own public opinion and counter charges of a dishonourable and shameful betrayal of the Kashmir cause which could seriously destabilise the country. It will be reduced to saving Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan itself from further Indian designs. India will massively interfere in AJK and GB to force a final settlement along or even beyond the LoC with the understanding if not approval of the US and the Western powers. China will provide diplomatic support to Pakistan while counselling ‘moderation’, the need to adopt a longer-term perspective on Kashmir, and ensuring continued territorial contiguity between Pakistan and China.

Inside IHK, India will seek to wipe out the entire Muslim leadership, or strike a deal with the previous puppet Muslim leadership, or craft a new puppet Muslim leadership, possibly with people like Muzzafar Baig and Altaf Bukhari, who may be persuaded to accept the fig leaf of a hollow restoration of Article 370 as a final settlement. The All Parties Hurriyat Conference will be targeted for liquidation. No matter how outrageous the human rights situation in Kashmir gets, the major powers, including China, will not tolerate the prospect of nuclear conflict.

Pakistan has described Kashmir as its ‘jugular vein’ without which it is incomplete and cannot survive. It has pledged its last breath and drop of blood in defence of the Kashmiri people. It has always said any stoppage of Pakistan’s waters would be a casus belli. Moreover, in the name of the freedom struggle or jihad for Kashmir the people of Pakistan have had to live in a security rather than development state. This has deprived them of the benefits of democracy, good governance, peace and development. The results of this political degeneration are today evident in the wretched daily news every day.

The honest choice before the prime minister of Pakistan is stark: either he tells the nation that the costs of stopping India from perpetrating genocide in the Valley are more than Pakistan can bear and, therefore, he has no option but to ‘accept the unacceptable’ for Pakistan to survive. Or he asserts that the costs of a disgraceful betrayal of the Kashmir cause, especially after the loss of the majority of Pakistan’s population in 1971, will render the country a failed state without meaning, purpose, a moral foundation and a future worth having. Accordingly, while he is ready to go the extra mile for peace with India and to negotiate an acceptable, just and principled Kashmir settlement, he will never countenance genocide in Kashmir no matter what the cost may be.

For such resolve to be credible it must also be part of a comprehensive national transformation of Pakistan from an elitist, corrupt and incoherent state that, despite its verbal jihad, is unwilling and unable to take any risks for any cause, to a functioning democratic, development and human rights state that is able to develop options and take risks to ensure freedom and justice for Kashmir and to chart a course for peaceful coexistence with India. Progress towards such a national transformation will itself generate the narratives and project the images required for the views of Pakistan, regarding the plight of the Kashmiris, to register internationally.

There are no risk-free options to stop genocide, save Kashmir, and avoid war with India. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent is meant to deter war not pursue war. But if the people of the Valley are threatened with genocide, as indeed they are, Pakistan’s deterrent must cover them. If this is rejected as wishful thinking there will be both genocide in the Valley and a slide towards war between India and Pakistan.

Aug 5, 2019 has transformed Kashmir from a longer-term diplomatic challenge to an existential challenge for Pakistan. Modi’s ‘Anschluss’ does not allow for incremental strategies. The prime minister must now do whatever it takes to ensure Pakistan no longer remains an irresolute and self-imprisoned soft state that surrenders its raison d’être.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

[email protected]

www.ashrafjqazi.com

Published in Dawn, December 2nd, 2019

LOL PUSSY CAMEL PISS DRINKER THINK THEY CAN TAKE DOWN INDIA WITH NUKES LMAO. ONE NUKE FROM INDIA CAN ERASE THE ENTIRE SHITHOLE FROM THE WORLD.
This bugger had lost his marbles years back. No one takes this clown seriously - even in Porkistan.
 

Deathstar

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This is Embarrassing. Instead of Giving out free Brownie Points for PorkiShitani Trolls and Camel Piss Drinker DG ISPR GayFool. The Indian Government Should be Silently Fixing the Issue and Helping Jawans with There Psychological Problems and PTSD. We can’t let this continue like this.
Nothing surprising , this country's political set up is a fraud. We haven't received any freedom per se. Just the British were replaced by Brown Indians while attitude is still the same that of elitist. I wish one day this system completely fails and theres bloody revolution and each politician is hanged on road
 

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VICTORIOUM AUT MORS
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Nothing surprising , this country's political set up is a fraud. We haven't received any freedom per se. Just the British were replaced by Brown Indians while attitude is still the same that of elitist. I wish one day this system completely fails and theres bloody revolution and each politician is hanged on road
I Mean I hate the Political System Created by Left Wing Bastards but that doesn’t mean I want my Beautiful Country to burn up and Turn into One of those Pisslam ShitHoles that you find in the Middle East and Africa. LoL sometimes I would wish that one day the Indian Armed Forces would take over country from hands of these lying and corrupt Ass Politicians and return India to its rightful place. I know that would never happen.
 

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This is Embarrassing. Instead of Giving out free Brownie Points for PorkiShitani Trolls and Camel Piss Drinker DG ISPR GayFool. The Indian Government Should be Silently Fixing the Issue and Helping Jawans with There Psychological Problems and PTSD. We can’t let this continue like this.
You think like a paki if you are embarrassed.

PTSD is a issue that needs to be taken care of, our soldiers deserve the best of health care. It's not easy being in the frontlines, especially considering how poorly equipped our soldiers are,especially in the past, or a combination of personal problems and other issues which can take it's toll. They are humans after all. We can't just bury such things under the rug hoping someone will take care of this problem. Our system doesn't works like that.

But if you are pissed of at few paki trolls for them using this news, then you need some phycological help or need to grow a thicker skin.
 

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I Mean I hate the Political System Created by Left Wing Bastards but that doesn’t mean I want my Beautiful Country to burn up and Turn into One of those Pisslam ShitHoles that you find in the Middle East and Africa. LoL sometimes I would wish that one day the Indian Armed Forces would take over country from hands of these lying and corrupt Ass Politicians and return India to its rightful place. I know that would never happen.
U think higher ups in armed forces are not corrupt??? Oh they are. Look Armed forces are part of the same society as Politicians , Judges , we all are. Dont expect them to be completely clean.
 

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VICTORIOUM AUT MORS
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You think like a paki if you are embarrassed.

PTSD is a issue that needs to be taken care of, our soldiers deserve the best of health care. It's not easy being in the frontlines, especially considering how poorly equipped our soldiers are,especially in the past, or a combination of personal problems and other issues which can take it's toll. They are humans after all. We can't just bury such things under the rug hoping someone will take care of this problem. Our system doesn't works like that.

But if you are pissed of at few paki trolls for them using this news, then you need some phycological help or need to grow a thicker skin.
To You it might be fun and games but to me it is Dignity and Reputation of our Armed Forces that is on the line right now because of the Current, Past Governments and Military Higher Up Not Taking up this Issue and Fixing it. Indian Military is one of the most Respected Forces in the world but these kinds of reports can easily cause huge Amount Damage to our Image as a Country and Our Forces around our neighborhood and world. Some Indians like you think that’s it’s all right but it is important for India to counter Enemies on and off the Battlefield. PorkiShitani Dogs are waiting for these kinds of Reports to come out to be used as Tools to Target India and Naive Indian Civilians. This could all have been prevented or Avoided if the Indian Government and Military Heads helped the Jawans who needed the help and attention in the first place.
 
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Illusive

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To You it might be fun and games but to me it is Dignity and Reputation of our Armed Forces that is on the line right now because of the Current, Past Governments and Military Higher Up Not Taking up this Issue and Fixing it. Indian Military is one of the most Respected Forces in the world but these kinds of reports can easily cause huge Amount Damage to our Image as a Country and Our Forces around our neighborhood and world. Some Indians like you think that’s it’s all right but it is important for India to counter Enemies on and off the Battlefield. PorkiShitani Dogs are waiting for these kinds of Reports to come out to be used as Tools to Target India and Naive Indian Civilians. This could all have been prevented or Avoided if the Indian Government and Military Heads helped the Jawans who needed the help and attention in the first place.
You are turning this into a game, a game of dignity. US soldiers suffer from PTSD, they take care of it openly, you think US military reputation is taking a dent?

Next you'd also want us to hide the deaths because the porkis do it, cause they are so fragile to handle deaths so they deal with by hiding the truth.

Funny thing is you don't like such news and don't want it in open, but you are also helping it spread by posting it here.
 

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You are turning this into a game, a game of dignity. US soldiers suffer from PTSD, they take care of it openly, you think US military reputation is taking a dent?

Next you'd also want us to hide the deaths because the porkis do it, cause they are so fragile to handle deaths so they deal with by hiding the truth.

Funny thing is you don't like such news and don't want it in open, but you are also helping it spread by posting it here.
US Military Took Care of it better than how Indian Military is trying to take Care of it now. Number of US Soldiers Effected by PTSD have fallen dramatically since the Invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan that is why there is no dent on the US Military Reputations.US military didn’t Publicize There PTSD problems that much and took care it at there own pace. Majority US Service Members who have committed Suicide are usually Ex Military Veterans which is opposite of what India has were active duty service members are the ones that are effected.

Porkis hide there deaths not because they are fragile but because they want to fool the world and there own Camel Piss Drinker Civilians by showing that We Porki Hijada Army has a “lot less Causalities than the Indians have that means we have complete dominance over the LOC” While indians report Causalities over and over again Porkis don’t do that which Reinforces Belief in the minds of the Ordinary Porkis and Maybe some People Around the world that PorkiShitan Hijada Army has complete dominance over the LOC (which isn’t true) while Indians get beat down again and again. I hope you understand what I am trying to say here bro, if PorkiShitanis are truly fragile they would have hidden the names and faces of the PorkiShitani Terrorists that get killed by the Indian Army on the LOC and J&K on daily basis but they don’t do that they celebrate those dogs as heroes and Martyrs of Pisslam and PorkiShitan itself and they do it publicly. The PorkiShitani Hijada Army and PorkiShitani Terrorist Group are not that different from each one has a uniform while the other doesn’t.

Why i posted it? I posted it so they that we can all discuss the Issue in here in a Civilized Manner. There are many differences between a forum like this and a Social Media like Twitter. Everybody has there own Opinions about Defense and what I said are my opinions on the Subject. I believe it is not wise to reveal and release such sensitive data into the public domain. Instead of releasing such reports the Government Should have given the Jawans treatments that they deserve and helped them overcome There Psychological Problems and PTSDs.
 
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Assassin 2.0

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PorkiShitani Dogs are waiting for these kinds of Reports to come out to be used as Tools to Target India and Naive Indian Civilians. This could all have been prevented or Avoided if the Indian Government and Military Heads helped the Jawans who needed the help and attention in the first place.
Real problem is of the health of soldiers rather than countering Pakistani propaganda.
Napakistan will always try to troll india and Indian's doesn't matter what we do how better we arm our troops what we do on battlefield.
Pakistan is a country based and run on the basis of propaganda which is created by it's armed forces people bred their are brainwashed from the day they are born. Books of 5th class student states that hindu are dirtiest kind of shit. They state that they won 1965 1999 and etc wars with india. But in reality their whole military plans and strategy failed now days they are bringing 1962 as their win because Chinese won against india. Lamo.

Things which are done on ground matters not on internet. We have done actions which are scaring the shit out of NAPAK army. They are facing existential crisis. Average Pakistani is forced to think why we give one roti from our plate to useless scums.
 

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US Military Took Care of it better than how Indian Military is trying to take Care of it now. Number of US Soldiers Effected by PTSD have fallen dramatically since the Invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan that is why there is no dent on the US Military Reputations.US military didn’t Publicize There PTSD problems that much and took care it at there own pace. Majority US Service Members who have committed Suicide are usually Ex Military Veterans which is opposite of what India has were active duty service members are the ones that are effected.

Porkis hide there deaths not because they are fragile but because they want to fool the world and there own Camel Piss Drinker Civilians by showing that We Porki Hijada Army has a “lot less Causalities than the Indians have that means we have complete dominance over the LOC” While indians report Causalities over and over again Porkis don’t do that which Reinforces Belief in the minds of the Ordinary Porkis and Maybe some People Around the world that PorkiShitan Hijada Army has complete dominance over the LOC (which isn’t true) while Indians get beat down again and again. I hope you understand what I am trying to say here bro, if PorkiShitanis are truly fragile they would have hidden the names and faces of the PorkiShitani Terrorists that get killed by the Indian Army on the LOC and J&K on daily basis but they don’t do that they celebrate those dogs as heroes and Martyrs of Pisslam and PorkiShitan itself and they do it publicly. The PorkiShitani Hijada Army and PorkiShitani Terrorist Group are not that different from each one has a uniform while the other doesn’t.

Why i posted it? I posted it so they that we can all discuss the Issue in here in a Civilized Manner. There are many differences between a forum like this and a Social Media like Twitter. Everybody has there own Opinions about Defense and what I said are my opinions on the Subject. I believe it is not wise to reveal and release such sensitive data into the public domain. Instead of releasing such reports the Government Should have given the Jawans treatments that they deserve and helped them overcome There Psychological Problems and PTSDs.
The point was grow a thick skin and not that of weather or not our soldiers should be given treatment for such issues.

They should get the best care and I hope our govt does something to remedy this and nit just govt. buy NGOs as well so that we can take care of our heros.

Don't get pissed of just cause pakis use these to make fun, they are low lives, they will use this.

What we need is not to hide these stuff, but to reveal all the skeletons in paki closets effectively through media just like how west has created BBC, CNN etc , i.e counter propoganda which we are definitely lacking.
All their bravado cant hide the fact that they get ass kicked everyday at LOC, which needs to be shown through media.
 

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Fighting Going On Between Our Army and Camel Pee Drinkers on the Poonch Sector of the LOC.
This what the "Karmaphala" is all about...
Nehru was "Darya Dil" to give back all captured areas of Punch and ditch that braveheart Brig Pritam Singh of Poonch garrission. All those areas now directly overlook Poonch and adjoining areas. Pakis have a field day there with their observed fire.

Kare koi aur bhare koi.......
 

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Updated Dec 02, 2019 04:36pm

Whatever it takes

ASHRAF JEHANGIR QAZI


THE Indian lockdown of nine million Muslims in the Kashmir Valley is a third of a year old. Has India made a ‘major strategic blunder’ or has it pulled off a major fait accompli? In other words, is there a greater likelihood of India having to reverse its Aug 5 decision or is it effectively irreversible despite Pakistan’s vigorous diplomacy and the unprecedented international criticisms of India’s action?

This depends on (i) the durability of the Kashmiri resistance in India-held Kashmir under extreme Indian repression including the comprehensive and relentless targeting of the civilian population of the Valley; (ii) whether any significant political opposition to Modi’s Aug 5 decision develops in India; (iii) the response of the international community — particularly the major powers and especially the US — to the hideous human rights situation in the Valley which threatens to reach genocidal proportions as defined by the Genocide Convention of 1948; and (iv) the response of Pakistan to such a scenario which Genocide Watch says is already under way. Just read Arundhati Roy to know the monstrosity India is becoming under Modi!

The current assumptions and indications suggest:

the Kashmiri resistance cannot be eliminated short of genocidal measures against the people of the Valley who regard and support the resistance as their own;

(ii) there is no prospect of any politically significant opposition in India to Modi’s decision of Aug 5;

(iii) the international community may condemn, embarrass and annoy India because of its atrocities, but it will not halt and reverse the trend towards genocide because the major powers see Kashmir in the context of a much larger Eurasian struggle in which India strategically counts for more than Pakistan; and

(iv) apart from bellicose statements and some heating up of the Line of Control, Pakistan will by and large avoid military confrontation with India even if a full-blown genocide develops. Instead, it will intensify its diplomatic campaign in the hope of arousing the conscience of the international community sufficiently for it to take effective measures to restrain India.

Aug 5 has transformed Kashmir from a longer-term diplomatic challenge to an existential challenge for Pakistan.

Inside Pakistan, the government will be primarily concerned to pacify its own public opinion and counter charges of a dishonourable and shameful betrayal of the Kashmir cause which could seriously destabilise the country. It will be reduced to saving Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan itself from further Indian designs. India will massively interfere in AJK and GB to force a final settlement along or even beyond the LoC with the understanding if not approval of the US and the Western powers. China will provide diplomatic support to Pakistan while counselling ‘moderation’, the need to adopt a longer-term perspective on Kashmir, and ensuring continued territorial contiguity between Pakistan and China.

Inside IHK, India will seek to wipe out the entire Muslim leadership, or strike a deal with the previous puppet Muslim leadership, or craft a new puppet Muslim leadership, possibly with people like Muzzafar Baig and Altaf Bukhari, who may be persuaded to accept the fig leaf of a hollow restoration of Article 370 as a final settlement. The All Parties Hurriyat Conference will be targeted for liquidation. No matter how outrageous the human rights situation in Kashmir gets, the major powers, including China, will not tolerate the prospect of nuclear conflict.

Pakistan has described Kashmir as its ‘jugular vein’ without which it is incomplete and cannot survive. It has pledged its last breath and drop of blood in defence of the Kashmiri people. It has always said any stoppage of Pakistan’s waters would be a casus belli. Moreover, in the name of the freedom struggle or jihad for Kashmir the people of Pakistan have had to live in a security rather than development state. This has deprived them of the benefits of democracy, good governance, peace and development. The results of this political degeneration are today evident in the wretched daily news every day.

The honest choice before the prime minister of Pakistan is stark: either he tells the nation that the costs of stopping India from perpetrating genocide in the Valley are more than Pakistan can bear and, therefore, he has no option but to ‘accept the unacceptable’ for Pakistan to survive. Or he asserts that the costs of a disgraceful betrayal of the Kashmir cause, especially after the loss of the majority of Pakistan’s population in 1971, will render the country a failed state without meaning, purpose, a moral foundation and a future worth having. Accordingly, while he is ready to go the extra mile for peace with India and to negotiate an acceptable, just and principled Kashmir settlement, he will never countenance genocide in Kashmir no matter what the cost may be.

For such resolve to be credible it must also be part of a comprehensive national transformation of Pakistan from an elitist, corrupt and incoherent state that, despite its verbal jihad, is unwilling and unable to take any risks for any cause, to a functioning democratic, development and human rights state that is able to develop options and take risks to ensure freedom and justice for Kashmir and to chart a course for peaceful coexistence with India. Progress towards such a national transformation will itself generate the narratives and project the images required for the views of Pakistan, regarding the plight of the Kashmiris, to register internationally.

There are no risk-free options to stop genocide, save Kashmir, and avoid war with India. Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent is meant to deter war not pursue war. But if the people of the Valley are threatened with genocide, as indeed they are, Pakistan’s deterrent must cover them. If this is rejected as wishful thinking there will be both genocide in the Valley and a slide towards war between India and Pakistan.

Aug 5, 2019 has transformed Kashmir from a longer-term diplomatic challenge to an existential challenge for Pakistan. Modi’s ‘Anschluss’ does not allow for incremental strategies. The prime minister must now do whatever it takes to ensure Pakistan no longer remains an irresolute and self-imprisoned soft state that surrenders its raison d’être.

The writer is a former ambassador to the US, India and China and head of UN missions in Iraq and Sudan.

[email protected]

www.ashrafjqazi.com

Published in Dawn, December 2nd, 2019

LOL PUSSY CAMEL PISS DRINKER THINK THEY CAN TAKE DOWN INDIA WITH NUKES LMAO. ONE NUKE FROM INDIA CAN ERASE THE ENTIRE SHITHOLE FROM THE WORLD.
Notice that Pakiland always talk about genocide in Kashmir however there isn't outward migration like Rohingayas.

Let's assume genocide is coming which all Salwar Kamiz are shouting from rooftops, none of Paki Abdul (both in real world and online) has asked Kashmiris to come to Pakiland for safety as a Muslim brethren. Instead Paki wants to come to Kashmir like impoverished ugly hyenas.

This is underlying greed of territory rather than feeling of solidarity. In Citizenship amendment bill (CAB) we are openly offering citizenship to religiously prosecuted Hindus, Sikhs, Parsis, Christians, Jews of Pak, Bd and Af. We aren't asking them to revolt, ask for freedom, or carry out "Jihad" because our underlying cause is humanitarian rather than expansion.
 
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