India-China Border conflict

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Xi has picked a border fight with India that China cannot win


Brahma Chellaney is a professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research

The international focus on the war in Ukraine has helped obscure the China-India military confrontation, which has led to rival force build-ups and intermittent clashes. For more than three years, the two Asian giants have been locked in a tense military standoff along their disputed Himalayan frontier.

The risk of this confrontation escalating to intense bloody clashes or even a limited border war can no longer be discounted, given the large-scale forward military deployments by both sides.


An opposite scenario is also conceivable. If Chinese President Xi Jinping were to visit New Delhi for the Group of Twenty (G20) summit in September, the trip could catalyze efforts to defuse the dangerous confrontation, which was triggered by China’s stealth territorial encroachments into the northernmost Indian territory of Ladakh in April-May 2020.

India failed to foresee the Chinese aggression largely because Prime Minister Narendra Modi had been focused on appeasing Beijing in order to chip away at the China-Pakistan axis. Mr. Xi, though, seriously miscalculated that China would be able to impose the changed territorial status quo on India as a fait accompli, without inviting a robust military response.

India has locked horns with China by more than matching Chinese force deployments. Even at the risk of sparking a full-scale war, India is openly challenging Chinese power and capability in a way that no other country has done in this century.

Discomfited by the strong Indian military challenge, Mr. Xi’s regime has sought to exert greater pressure on India by deploying more Chinese forces in offensive positions, constructing new warfare infrastructure along the frontier, and mounting infowar and psychological operations.


All this, however, risks making a permanent enemy of India, including driving it closer to the United States. Such a scenario is antithetical to China’s long-term interests. U.S. President Joe Biden’s courtship of India, and the pomp and attention he recently lavished on Mr. Modi during a state visit to the U.S., have increased Beijing’s suspicion that New Delhi is drawing closer to Washington to help blunt China.

After China’s border aggression began, New Delhi concluded the last of four foundational defence-related agreements that Washington regularly puts in place with military allies. India has also more closely integrated into the Quad arrangement with Washington, Tokyo and Canberra. And the India-initiated annual Malabar naval war games now include all the Quad partners.

The military standoff with India, meanwhile, leaves Mr. Xi with less room to accomplish what he has called a “historic mission” – the incorporation of Taiwan. India is aiding Taiwan’s defence by tying down a complete Chinese theatre force, which could otherwise be employed against that island democracy.

As Admiral Michael Gilday, the U.S. Navy’s chief of naval operations, put it last year, the standoff presents China with a “two-front” problem: “They [Indians] now force China to not only look east, toward the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, but they now have to be looking over their shoulder at India.”

More fundamentally, Mr. Xi has picked a border fight with India that China cannot win. While the Chinese military relies heavily on conscripts, India, with an all-volunteer force, has the world’s most-experienced troops for mountain warfare.

A war between the two nuclear-armed demographic titans would likely end in a bloody stalemate, which would be seen internationally as a defeat for the stronger side, China. That would seriously damage Mr. Xi’s image.

So, if the confrontation with India were to escalate, Mr. Xi could risk being hoisted with his own petard.

Against this backdrop, would Mr. Xi be willing to find ways to defuse the military crisis with India?


The Sept. 9-10 G20 summit will bring together world leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and possibly Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, at a time when tens of thousands of troops on each side are facing off on the Himalayan massif, it would be odd if Mr. Xi visited New Delhi without seeking to defuse the border confrontation.

At the past G20 summit in Bali, Mr. Xi and Mr. Modi briefly interacted at a cultural event in front of television cameras, but did not hold a private meeting, as each did with other leaders.

The only way to end the military standoff is through a deal to implement a sequential process of disengagement, de-escalation and de-induction of rival forces. The details of such a deal could be hammered out through military-to-military talks.

Mr. Xi, however, seems caught in a military crisis of his own making. He may want to resolve the crisis, but without losing face. His efforts to compel India to buckle have come a cropper. This means that any compromise settlement would require that Mr. Xi climb down to some extent.
 

Azaad

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Amid Row With China, India Moves To Boost Conventional Missile Arsenal


There is also a long range cruise missile but Indian govt has not given any details. IMO it might be completed or very close to induction???

we need to cut off the Chinese supply lines as early
As possible . From what I have read there is only one major road on the Chinese side. Destroying this road and trapping the Chinese . Is a top priority.

View attachment 248497

(Referring here to the retweeted Original post & thread )

THREAD !!

Don't know if I've posted this before. But this very important thread on China's Rocket Force is worth it's weight in Gold. Although this thread is from Dec 2022 , some parts of the thread cites data from a year earlier.

The reason I'm highlighting this is to make readers aware of the massive assymetry which existed then & which'd have definitely opened up into a chasm now on the capacity NOT CAPABILITIES gap between the 2 nations .

You may be interested @ezsasa & all other China watchers.
 

Hari Sud

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In order for this division to be highly effective we need more helicopters and lightweight 155 mm tubes and mobile 155 howitzers and not to mention long range HIMARs type rockets.
How much additional taxes you are prepared to pay to fund helicopters and other hardware?
 

Azaad

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(Referring here to the retweeted Original post & thread )

THREAD !!

Don't know if I've posted this before. But this very important thread on China's Rocket Force is worth it's weight in Gold. Although this thread is from Dec 2022 , some parts of the thread cites data from a year earlier.

The reason I'm highlighting this is to make readers aware of the massive assymetry which existed then & which'd have definitely opened up into a chasm now on the capacity NOT CAPABILITIES gap between the 2 nations .

You may be interested @ezsasa & all other China watchers.
 

Blood+

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More than patting our backs for geographical advantages we enjoy , I wish he considered ways in which PLAAF is addressing this problem by throwing in massive numbers of FAs that too 5th Gen FAs to nullify the disadvantage of flying out of Tibet with reduced performance & payloads & support structures like more bases dotting Tibet , Xinjiang & surrounding provinces like Chengdu , Qinghai & Yunnan , HALE / MALE Drones , LMs , possibly Bombers , Refuelers , ISR capabilities not limited to air borne assets like AEW ,AWACS , EW , ISTAR ,etc exclusively but extending to space based assets , besides their newly created Strategic Support Force , Rocket Force , IADS , increasingly networked capabilities & so on , greatly nullifying the advantage.

Unfortunately while Shiv can afford to be smug , GoI can't though they seem to share Shiv's smugness.
As I keep repeating, we should go the Vietcong route i.e. go underground, that should mitigate Chinese fire superiority to a large extent if not negate it completely.
 

Blademaster

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How much additional taxes you are prepared to pay to fund helicopters and other hardware?
*Sighs* Economy is growing at least 7.5% so the increased revenues will help pay for these and besides we can get the money by not paying for overpriced western imports. The helicopters and hardware I am talking about are Indian domestic products.
 

ezsasa

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the commentary from those tweets is peacetime thinking, wartime thinking is very different.

if it comes to a situation that chini are throwing at us 10X of what was thrown at israel. the question will not be how many made it thru our defence shield, the question will be how many chini cities should be targeted in retaliation.
 

Blademaster

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the commentary from those tweets is peacetime thinking, wartime thinking is very different.

if it comes to a situation that chini are throwing at us 10X of what was thrown at israel. the question will not be how many made it thru our defence shield, the question will be how many chini cities should be targeted in retaliation.
Unless there is a nuclear exchange, India has no conventional capability of targeting Chinese cities in a meaningful sense. To pull off what you are envisioning, India does certainly need to step up its MIC infrastructure on a grand scale and match Chinese industrial output.
 

ezsasa

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Unless there is a nuclear exchange, India has no conventional capability of targeting Chinese cities in a meaningful sense. To pull off what you are envisioning, India does certainly need to step up its MIC infrastructure on a grand scale and match Chinese industrial output.
that's for leadership at that point in time to ponder on, depending on inventory at their disposal.
the situation that was described of 10x missiles, does not arise overnight. there would be years of buildup leading to such a situation.
 

Kumaoni

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the commentary from those tweets is peacetime thinking, wartime thinking is very different.

if it comes to a situation that chini are throwing at us 10X of what was thrown at israel. the question will not be how many made it thru our defence shield, the question will be how many chini cities should be targeted in retaliation.
This is the mentality that needs to dominate indian defense spaces.
 

patriots

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IAF remains in 'Operational Ready Format' along the #LAC even four years after the 2020 Galwan clashes which means fighter aircrafts can be airborne (fully-loaded) in 5-7 minutes to meet any contingencie


So situation is not normal....


Bdw even at loc we have fully loaded fighters ,to intercept paf
 

Bleh

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Bdw even at loc we have fully loaded fighters ,to intercept paf
Except on 27th... Then only 6 were available 😑

Anyways this is the watershed map of Ladakh, a natural border that roughly aligns with pre-1960 positions of PLA. Maybe we should just cut the crap & negotiate that as permanent line, against them withdrawing Arunachal claim. Aksai Chin is unlikely but that'll allow us to concentrate on PoK. Something is better than nothing...
Rivers-of-the-J-K-state.png
 

sameer3694

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Except on 27th... Then only 6 were available 😑

Anyways this is the watershed map of Ladakh, a natural border that roughly aligns with pre-1960 positions of PLA. Maybe we should just cut the crap & negotiate that as permanent line, against them withdrawing Arunachal claim. Aksai Chin is unlikely but that'll allow us to concentrate on PoK. Something is better than nothing...View attachment 248597
They'll never withdraw the Arunachal claim unless some important places in that state are ceded. They really want Tawang(very badly).
 

Bleh

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They'll never withdraw the Arunachal claim unless some important places in that state are ceded. They really want Tawang(very badly).
Maybe, but maybe not... they already proposed it once before '62, they already had Aksai as we never bothered to occupy it properly & we had NEFA (Arunachal old name). The idea was to keep what either side has & forget the rest.

Our stand should be no-negotiations on anything unless they move back to prewar position
 

sameer3694

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They already proposed it once before '62, they already had Aksai as we never bothered to occupy it properly & we had NEFA (Arunachal old name). The idea was to keep what either side has & forget the rest.
If you're talking about the Zhou enalai-Nehru proposal, that is no longer valid(from the Chinese end). Much water has flown since then.. Now, they want a lot more. Primarily Tawang because of its importance in Tibetan Buddhism.
 

Dessert Storm

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the commentary from those tweets is peacetime thinking, wartime thinking is very different.

if it comes to a situation that chini are throwing at us 10X of what was thrown at israel. the question will not be how many made it thru our defence shield, the question will be how many chini cities should be targeted in retaliation.
1. If the things were so much in their favour, they would have responded post Galwan. If they start it....they won't end it. The Chinese know that.
2. Unrelated to this post but related to 10x .The 330 plus missiles....99% intercepted. Quiet an. achievement. However, there is something else going on.
Reason: Why was Iran announcing their intent from loudspeakers? If they really wanted to inflict damage, then it would have been a surprise attack. With surprise attack there's no ways to achieve such a high rate of interception.
 

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