India-China 2020 Border Dispute - Military and Strategic Discussion

[prasadr14]

He is CIA Compromised asset
They Will Do all Possible thing For US interest

At This Movement US interest in Indo-china Conflict that Will insure US hegemony

Why do you think Suddenly all there interest Sweet talk about India.

Not just him,

SuSu Swamy is itching to cause trouble...

 

[fire starter]

At most a month... Enough damage can be done in a full fledged conventional war. I don't think Chinese Navy can do anything.. They just don't have that kind of power projection.
I think the threshold will be like the one in 1962 but Air force will be used by both sides.

air force is the key to victory.

 

[WARREN SS]

Not just him,

SuSu Swamy is itching to cause trouble...

Every Indian Who is Introduced For Western Lifestyle Is
Specially Indian Elites

They Will First run To Europe And US If Things go south

 

[cereal killer]

Lol Eleven has changed the PLA commander

 

[Cheran]

It's time for GoI to start with anti Russia rhetoric as those fkrs have been in close talks with Porkistan these days. We need to show those ruskies who is the Boss

No, we have good relationship with them. Besides we have a lot of Russian maal & that will remain with us for a long time. Russia has also said that relationship with Napakeez would not be at the cost India. Phasing out of Russian equipment will be an extremely long term affair.

 

[cereal killer]

air force is the key to victory.

Absolutely need to take out their SAM... Then its over for Chinks.

 

[mandestiny]

Ref. tomorrow meeting between India/China, China will most certainly seek Indian withdrawal from the 39 peaks where it has "readjusted troops" within our own claim area. Now, just for gaming, what can China offer India to make this happen? One thing that will not happen is China dismantling hundreds of its camps between F4 to F8. It did not do all this to just to pack up & leave. China could also raise the economic steps taken by us. In my view, we should not leave the peaks, they are within our claim area & i do hope that we will not compromise despite some Russian noises.

No compromise on territory. We need akshin hind.

 

[Tshering22]

'India has surprised China,' European think tank says India can confidently stand alone against China

India’s resolve in tackling China over the border dispute has garnered praise from all quarters and now putting a stamp of authority over India’s response to China is a European think tank which has said that post the violent June 15 Galwan Valley clashes, India has shown the confidence of...

tfipost.com

‘India has surprised China,’ European think tank says India can confidently stand alone against China
India’s response to China has become a case study for the world

The European Foundation for South Asian Studies (EFSAS) in a report released on Thursday has admired India’s firmness and resolve in the face of Chinese transgression at the LAC.

Asking the collective EU to speak in our favour militarily is stupid and pointless. As they say in Hindi, "bhais ke aage been bajana".

Only France has the cojones to stand up for us as they have always had an independent and rational foreign policy

The effective coalition that I see forming are:

1) Military unofficial coalition: India-Vietnam-Afghanistan (from Pakistani angle, in case they decide to become naughty). Vietnam is the only country right now with the ferocity to screw China with sufficient weapons support. Their Paracel Islands are stuck with China since 1979. We can always nudge them diplomatically to take it back once we are engrossed with PLA/PLAAF in the Himalayas. While Afghanistan can be nudged to cross the Durand Line if Pakistan intervenes.

2) Economic coalition: The QUAD. Australia has been hammering China economically despite its complex economic relationship with China. It takes serious guts to take such bold steps when their economy is already reeling with coronavirus, though people support their government against China after the Australian reporters' harassment by Beijing's interior security forces. Japanese are paying their companies to move to India, Indonesia, Bangladesh & Vietnam for manufacturing. The US is framing up different economic restrictions and sanctions against CCP officials & dubious agencies.

 

[Suryavanshi]

No, we have good relationship with them. Besides we have a lot of Russian maal & that will remain with us for a long time. Russia has also said that relationship with Napakeez would not be at the cost India. Phasing out of Russian equipment will be an extremely long term affair.

Working with Russia is alright but lets not give them an idea that we can be taken for granted.
Other than that we need to link up with counties like Japan and korea so that we can get that sweet technology.

Other than that we need to promote small countries around us like Myanmmar, Sri Lanka Thailand to increase trade and Strategic relation with us.

 

[Tshering22]

air force is the key to victory.

This is exactly what Tharki Chacha stopped in 1962, and we suffered miserably.

Let's hope this time we use IAF to its full fury in the mountains and flatten their armoured units, if it comes to that.

PLAAF is at a severe disadvantage due to the altitude & payload limitations. IAF has a tactical advantage.

 

[ninja hattori]

All in one analysis.


NO ‘GO’ FOR CHINA IN THE LOGJAM BY LT GEN P R SHANKAR (R)

also published @

NO ‘GO’ FOR CHINA IN THE LOGJAM

China is in no position to undertake a major offensive anywhere and its economy will struggle. The fact that the meeting between Defence Ministers took place at Chinese instance gave the game away.

thedailyguardian.com

As I am posting this, the PLA has put out a tweet that they had to fire in Shenpao Mountains.
The game is on!
All the best boys. Bash on regardless. You have done us proud. ​

In my article Sino Indian Logjam- A Review, I had assessed that The Chinese situation is not as strong as it is being made out….. They are in no position to undertake a major offensive anywhere….Their economy like others will struggle. They are not far ahead of the curve as being assessed by everyone. Virus, flooding and militarism will take its toll…...China has done what it wants. It is our turn now….. We should deal with the situation with patience, resolve, firmness maintaining focus and with a plan… Even if it means waiting for a year….this is a follow-up of that article.



To put the cart before the horse – China is in a no ‘GO’ position in the game which is still logjammed. We did not have to wait for a year. Things have changed. The fact that the meeting between Defence Ministers took place at Chinese instance gave the game away. However there should be no complacency. Still need to do more to restore equilibrium.

Military No ‘GO’



No ‘GO’ on Land. India has halted Chinese efforts to alter the LAC unilaterally in its tracks in the Chushul sector. India seems to have gained control of Karakoram Ridge line heights, South of Pangong Tso, down to Rezang La (see map). Despite extensive analysis let me reiterate. Chinese observation into our areas from Chushul to Dungti seems closed. Our observation into the Spangur Bowl has increased manifold. It closes Chinese offensive options and opens ours if the balloon were to go higher. The Fingers Area and Sirijap come under observation. Place Artillery OP officers on this ridge line and they will play havoc into the Chinese. The Spangur Gap can now be exploited by us. In the larger picture, if China mounts any offensive further North in Depsang, it will get a bloody nose there, a riposte through Chushul and assured destruction in the Fingers Area. Necessary action has also been taken to deny the Chinese other footholds. Everyone now knows that Tibetan troops have been used. It is a huge political message.



No GO at Sea. China has carried out demonstrative missile firing in Bohai, Yellow, East China, and South China Seas (see map). Connect the dots. PLAN, is hugging its shores under mainland protection. USA has continuously deployed aircraft carriers in the South China Sea, sailed a destroyer through the Taiwan Straits, flown reconnaissance aircraft and B-1B bombers over the region and sided with Southeast Asian nations. As per reports, the Indian Navy has deployed along the Malacca Straits, near the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and even in the South China Sea. The Navy is also taking care of the Chinese vessels present around Djibouti and has deployed its assets in the vicinity for protecting our national interests. It is in control of IOR. Who is on the backfoot? Additionally, Japan and U.S. defence chiefs are to shortly meet in Guam about China and Chinese missile demonstrations and their combined response. No GO for China.
Indo US Partnership. The CDS signalled that China is a security threat to India and asserted readiness to use military force. He did it in a webinar to discuss US-India ties! China has achieved what it did not want - Indo- US operational synergy. So much for their strategic thinking. Now USA has once again said that it is ready to help resolve dispute. By this offer USA has, hyphenated India and China. That is a real down grade.
Chinese View Point. India Today’s Analysis by Antara Ghosal Singh illuminates Chinese thought. They are fuming at our audacity and think that our action is our last face-saving exit fight. Waving a Tibetan flag on the Karakoram’s has infuriated them. Chinese also worry about our naval presence in South China Sea and our relationship with USA. Many want to counterattack India to prove China's great power credentials. Some feel India is not China's primary strategic direction, and they could be walking into a Indo – US trap. They want a grand strategy focusing on three key objectives (i) Ensuring that India does not regard China as its principle strategic opponent, in place of Pakistan; (ii) Ensuring India exhausts its energy and resources, causing negative impact on its economic development by worsening the security situation in Kashmir, and in overall South Asia; thereby forcing India to be back at the negotiating table (iii) Ensuring India does not openly stand in line with the United States while competing with China. Finally they want to assure domestic Chinese populace "not to be perturbed" and have complete faith in the government and PLA. Global Times is screaming blue murder and issuing all kinds of threats but worried that Chinese troops will have to spend winterthere. Probably unprepared! . That editor and their military guru Song Zhongping can take a walk in the Karakorams hand in hand!

Assessment. China is in a difficult two front position under pressure and worried. Winter is setting in. It cannot mount a major offensive in Ladakh. Any reinforcement in Aksai Chin will weaken its front door and open an opportunity in South China Sea. If it does nothing, it will continue to lose face. Every military professional knows what has happened here. In my opinion, we should create a few more instabilities. If Chinese feel victory is theirs since they are a great power they can hop it. Attempts will be made to bring Pakistan into the fray. Chinese will look for an opportunity to attack us. We must be cognisant of that. We must strategically communicate that China is our principal opponent hereafter. They should also be clear that Indo – US relations are growing stronger with their actions.

Rimland Problems

Tibet. On 29 Aug, while speaking at the Seventh Central Symposium on Tibet Work, Xi Jinping’swords were “solidify border defences and ensure frontier security” , “form an impregnable fortress in maintaining stability” , “Tibetan Buddhism had to adapt to socialism and Chinese conditions” “protect national unity and educate the masses in the struggle against splittism". The implications are very clear and ominous. We will see the LAC being strengthened. The Tibetans will be subjugated and ‘Re-educated’. Buddhism will be communised. Any call for Tibet autonomy will be dealt with an iron hand. Hitlers actions will seem juvenile in comparison.

Mongolia. China wants to replace the language of instruction in Inner Mongolian schools from Mongolian to Mandarin Chinese. The plan follows a pattern. Earlier Tibetan and Uighur languageswere restricted in Tibet in 2018 and Xinjiang in 2017. Thousands of ethnic Mongolians have protestedagainst this move. They fear that Mongolian would be relegated to a foreign language as part of government plans to assimilate ethnic minorities into Chinese Han culture. Chinese have responded by using heavy force including armoured vehicles.

Xinjiang. It is now well known that China has detained more than a million Uyghur Muslims in re-education camps. Despite international pressure, China continues with the crackdown on Uyghurs' human rights through its vocational training centres which includes forced sterilisation. A massive protest was held outside Dhaka Press Club in Bangladesh. That is interesting.

Taiwan & EU. Taiwan has changed its passport design for “easier recognition & less confusion” with China. A clear step in being distinct from China. The more interesting part was that The Czech Senate President Milos Vystrcil and a delegation recently visited Taiwan. Wang Yi , China’s FM while visiting Germany said that the Czech visit was an intervention in China’s internal affairs, had crossed a red line and they will pay a heavy price. The Czechs responded by calling CCP 'rude clowns'. However the response from the German Foreign Minister was telling - ‘Threats don’t fit in here’. Wang Yi had gone to Germany to mend fences with EU and achieved the opposite! Bloomberg headline- ‘Europe Just Declared Independence From China’. The sentiment in EU is not clearly for China.
Hong Kong. A report by South China Morning Post says ‘The national security law hasn’t brought back the old Hong Kong. Rather, it has created a new, unfamiliar place. The new law has instilled fear. Hong Kong can never be at peace with itself until the underlying causes of last summer’s uprising are addressed’. The cause of the uprising is democracy which is getting crushed on a daily basis. USA has sanctioned Hong Kong economy. Hong Kong as an economic conduit is passe. That is a big loss for China.
Assessment. The rimland is unstable and in trouble. For the first time in a long while, all non-Han regions are experiencing some issues. Needs to be exploited to put pressure.
Internal Economy- New Inputs

Floods. Japan Times came out with a report titled ‘The big China disaster that you're missing’. As per that ‘the Yangtze River Economic Belt is home to more than 40% GDP. On its own, the region could be the third-largest economy in the world’. This has been disrupted due to floods. In future the flooding risk will only grow due to climate change and ‘the hundreds of thousands of levees, dikes, reservoirs and dams on its seven major river systems’. Hence future prospects are not bright.

Sub Prime Crisis. Recently, Shenzhen authorities released guidelines for consumer bankruptcy. A week earlier, China’s Supreme Court lowered the interest rate ceiling on all non-bank credit, from 24% to 15.4% . The rate cut is substantial. Bankers are still in shock. The fact is that there is a huge shadow banking industry in China whose interest rates are usurious. Tens of millions of subprime borrowers have been exploited and will never get out of debt traps. Hopes of a consumer led economic revival in China are bleak. Chinese internal economy is not in great shape.

External Economy

SCRI. The Supply Chain Resilience Initiative of Japan, India and Australia is taking shape. Things are being fast tracked. All three ‘China trade dependent’ countries want to reduce ‘dependence’. They feel – “the Indo-Pacific region is where the shape of the international order of tomorrow will be decided. We want to help shape that order – so that it is based on rules and international cooperation, not on the law of the strong”.

KRA Canal. Thailand has scrapped the KRA canal project. This has a major strategic implication. However there is a huge economic implication also. In addition, Thailand has put a submarine deal on hold. This is due to peoples pressure despite the ruling party being keen on the deal. Significant.

India’s Second Digital Strike. India has banned 118 more Chinese apps . With this the total is 224 banned Chinese apps. It includes the popular PUBG. The valuation of the parent Chinese companyTencent has gone down by 34 billion dollars. Surprising that the effect is so huge. The game is obviously deeper. For all those who feel that these digital strikes are cosmetic. Rethink please.

Assessment

All glowing reports of Chinese economic indicators are suspect. Combine these issues with established facts like aging population, export slump, food shortage and joblessness. Add the pushbacks in various international projects and the ‘Stand Still’ mode of BRI. Their diplomacy is not making headway. Everyone wants to break from ‘China Dependency’. Add the digital strikes initiated by India and now being followed up by other countries. The emerging picture is bleak. Xi Jinping has come out with the ‘Dual Circulation Plan’ to revive the economy. Experts call it vague. Frankly the model is unworkable. (see graphic). It depends on internal consumption. It depends on developing the troubled Rimlands through the Go West Policy. It depends upon making asses of those nations who want to firmly decouple from China. Everyone is wise to Chinese games. Remember China has a history of exporting food grains when there was famine during their disastrous great leap forward. This forthcoming period might be their second great leap backwards. There is requirement of experts to go into issues and make professional assessments. To my mind our China studies are being done by those bedazzled by Chinese glitter rather than hard facts on ground. Needs a hard headed reality check based on facts rather than past achievements.


Overall Assessment
The Chinese are talking big. From the beginning their strategy has been ‘Belligerent War Avoidance’. Comprehensive National Power means nothing in cold high altitude. Battles are about blood, guts andglory.
From any angle – China is not as strong as it is made out. Their influence operations makes them seem taller than the four feet they are. When we call them “Dragon” we are building them up into mythical powerful beings that they are not. They are normal people who can be defeated. However it will do us well to remember that China will be even more troublesome hereafter. There are also indications that Xi Jinping is purging the system again. Maybe some instability ahead. Time to be steady, balanced and give them a few more battle shocks. Extend the battle into the rear in their unstable rimlands.
The overall situation is tense and will remain so. However I doubt if the situation will escalate uncontrollably. In my opinion a few firefights will actually settle the issue. To me it is confirmed that Chinese are simply not battle hardened. Will they escalate it to higher level? Very unlikely in this current two front scenario. As I had predicted, as time passes, the Chinese will have more to lose.
A lot has been spoken and written about Multi Domain Warfare. I too have written extensively about it. However , battles are finally decided on ground. Never forget that. A lot has been made of primacy of economic power. All that is fine. When the chips are down, it is only military power that will stand tall and can defend a nation not diplomacy nor economies. We have a fine military machine which is standing tall. India should not run it down further. Already enough damage has been done by naïvepoliticians and rule bound bureaucrats. India must decide what is the security or insecurity it wants. China will come back harder at us in future.
A word about the two front situation we are likely to face. Pakistan is not up to it. The Pakistani generals are busy converting CPEC into Pizza outlets in USA. I do not think their Generals are in a mood to get into a scrap with India and jeopardise their ill-gotten wealth. The Pakistani Army has survived since it has not got into a conventional war with India. Do you think it will take that jump just because some Chinese tell them to do so? They will lose all their Pizzas!

 

[AmitG]

I think he is spot on. Also when the Chinese attack the biggest mistake that India could make would be to keep the conflict localised to the Chushul area. If the Chinese attack it is imperative that India opens up multiple fronts. You don’t want to give the Chinese the luxury to concentrate their troops in just one area while we try to defend the entire border.

 

[Tshering22]

It's time for GoI to start with anti Russia rhetoric as those fkrs have been in close talks with Porkistan these days. We need to show those ruskies who is the Boss

The most interesting thing in all this geopolitical shift has been that Russia has never taken an anti-India stance. Even with Pakistan, they only supply transport helicopters or utility platforms. India and Russia have always found a way to support each other despite being in different camps after USSR's collapse.

Let's maintain that. Russia is a rational non-imperialistic powerhouse and can vastly benefit us, just as our market benefits Russians.

This is the only foreign policy success that India had under the useless Congressi regime.

We are one of the few countries on the planet that has such good relations with both USA and Russia to get their best tech and political support at the same time.

 

[rwbeast]

Long Live India-Russia...Friendship?!

https://www.telegraphindia.com/opin...e-the-entire-country-was-for-sale/cid/1023636

http://www.thenorthlines.com/the-kg...-became-a-puppet-of-ussr-during-the-cold-war/

 

[UZI™️]

 

[Bhadra]

This is exactly what happens when ITBP puts up a classified Map with Marking for the journalist to advertise it the world over...

Your distractors start serving you with your own soup...

 

[Tshering22]

Long Live India-Russia...Friendship?!

https://www.telegraphindia.com/opin...e-the-entire-country-was-for-sale/cid/1023636

http://www.thenorthlines.com/the-kg...-became-a-puppet-of-ussr-during-the-cold-war/

I am aware of what it was in the USSR times and with a regime like Congress at the helm. But you also have to know what it is like to be under US umbrella; Turkey's decision on S-400 & subsequent kickout from F-35 program is an example. Iran, Iraq, Pakistan etc, are other examples.

What I am saying is that we have enough room to manoeuvre comfortably between USA and Russia without going against either of them and without pretending to be spineless. Thanks to the strong foreign policy so far, we have only earned more allies.

Russians hate CCP as much as we do; they literally just got off a situation where China was claiming Vladivostok city. Putin knows that China is eyeing Siberia's resource-rich lands. Which is what works in India's favour. He may not say "f*ck China" but he will do everything else to make sure that they are in check; including transferring technologies that could help us decimate PLA/PLAAF in any tech race in the future. Russia may have a small economy compared to Xinnie the Poop's, but they are leagues ahead in defence technology even today.

Jumping bandwagons unless there is an extreme situation is the sign of weak countries. OTOH India is at its strongest in the last 71 years, right now under a powerful and people's PM, an intelligence EAM, and a clever HM and a superbly tactical NSA.

Let's not undo that.

 

[slipknot]

undated Video showing an Indian Army deployment exercise of it's Soviet-origin T-72 Main Battle Tank [MBT] in the Indian State of Ladakh.

 

[UZI™️]

Tomorrow's SCO FM Meet will decide future course, till then LAC will remain silent but things will start to turn ugly in no time,if they don't reach to any agreement.

 

[Sanglamorre]

Today's SCO FM Meet will decide future course, till then LAC will remain silent but things will start to turn ugly in no time,if they don't reach to any agreement.

Isn't the meeting tomorrow?