That EUR47 billion cost is for 180 jets procured (28 yet to be delivered) and not 286 planned.
Besides the 286 planned was projected keeping in mind the attrition of M2000 in mind. However, due to the M2000 fleet holding just fine over the years with no major war losses or accidents, the future rafale procurement is planned to be no more than an extra 30 jets of F4 standard. So the final tally will be more like 210 than 286.
The development cost of F4 (Eur2B) and procurement cost of 30 jets is not included in the program cost yet.
NO.
The 47 billion was for a planned 286 (180 already ordered and 106 to come as specified in the defense white book). And don't forget that at those time there was no export.
a 2014 total price calculation is without risk, because the risky bulk of the developpment is ahead. So no risk in the future road map according to the Dassault habit : on time, on spec, on budget.
The situation in 2019 is :
-180 orderd for France. Another tranche of 45 to come so as to fulfill the new white book of 225 planes on line (with the increase of the defense expenditures in France, it's likely that the future white book to be 240 on line...) and because the remaining Mirage 2000 are to be removed in 2030 the latest.
-36 for Qatar,
-36 for India,
-24 for Egypt.
So with the firm orders only, 180+36+36+24 = 276. Very close to the 286 used for the 2014 calculations.
add to that :
at least a last batch of 45 for France.
India will ordered 36 more and may be far more.
Egypt is on track for another 12.
Switzerland is a very hot target for 30 to 60+ planes (the plane already won in 2011, the hottest competitor Gripen is out, SH18 made a poor effect because less agile than FA18, EF2000 too costly and F35 seems far from beiing operational, seen as costly and the field tests needed 4 planes when all the others used 2 was choking).
Denmark is the last target (more difficult than Switzerland).
Morocco to replace Mirage F1?
Greece,
Malaysia,
The Rafale history is far from beiing written.