Getting Indian economy back on track

Ray

The Chairman
Professional
Joined
Apr 17, 2009
Messages
43,132
Likes
23,836
Re: Restore confidence? Take action on Dr Singh

And in the process screw the country even more?
With the rudderless way we are meandering all over (about to be a Fallen Angel of BRIC) is there anything left to be further screwed about?
 

sukhish

Senior Member
Joined
Dec 30, 2009
Messages
1,321
Likes
312
Re: SHOCKING: April industrial output growth only 0.1%, worse than expected

cpmpared to the last quater from Jan 2012 to march 2012, this is not bad at all. in jan the IIP slipped to -6.1 and march IIP was -3.2, so as long as we are in
positive tertory,we will grow by about 6.5%. but in comming months it will pick up, Jan to march quater was the worst, we are not going to go any lower than that.
 

sob

Mod
Joined
May 4, 2009
Messages
6,425
Likes
3,805
Country flag
Re: SHOCKING: April industrial output growth only 0.1%, worse than expected

Yusuf: why blame anna for the slowdown.

the overall political uncertainly, scams, Anna has all effected the country
 

sehwag1830

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Dec 23, 2011
Messages
495
Likes
275
Country flag
Govt proposes to increase tax scrutiny, reduce refunds

'Given the overall sentiment post the recent controversy around the GAAR and the retrospective amendments, the government's move will be taken in a negative way'
Govt proposes to increase tax scrutiny, reduce refunds - Economy and Politics - livemint.com

Is this Govt. joke. ? I mean this is at par with Paki behaviour. We won't return your money. What exactly is point of harassing honest tax payers and Industries ?
 

ejazr

Ambassador
Joined
Oct 8, 2009
Messages
4,523
Likes
1,388
As sukshish mentioned,
the only relief is that April IIP growth is actually that it is not negative. Ofcourse its not as good as say the 2010 April IIP which showed a 20 year high at 17% growth but compared to last couple of months, its not contracting and we are probably seeing a double dip reversal of sorts.

April is usually the slowest month in the year as its the first month of the Financial year and compared to a -3.2% contraction last month, a 0.1 % growth is better than nothing. We still need a 25-50 basis point cut on the Interest rate now from the RBI next week for the momentum to hold up.

Despite weak IIP,Sensex jumps 195 pts
 
Last edited:

ejazr

Ambassador
Joined
Oct 8, 2009
Messages
4,523
Likes
1,388
Telenor cannot be given a clean chit. They are either directly or indirectly complicit or they are fools.

The other day ejaz showed that the fuel subsidy is far more than any "socialist" program of the government.
.
.
Total subsidy spending is actually more than even our defence spending which is usually the single biggest item on our list. :D
 

nrj

Ambassador
Joined
Nov 16, 2009
Messages
9,658
Likes
3,911
Country flag
We must replace Dr.Singh with Mulayam Yadav.

Sent via Tapatalk from a galaxy far far away
 

sehwag1830

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Dec 23, 2011
Messages
495
Likes
275
Country flag
Indian government fudging export figures

How can you write 12.667 billion $ of export figures as unspecified ? This means India's GDP growth figures are also fudged.

Export Import Data Bank

And the unspecified area got mysterious 400 % jump in 6 months .
I don't trust any figures now.
 

sob

Mod
Joined
May 4, 2009
Messages
6,425
Likes
3,805
Country flag
Re: Indian government fudging export figures

How can you write 12.667 billion $ of export figures as unspecified ? This means India's GDP growth figures are also fudged.

Export Import Data Bank

And the unspecified area got mysterious 400 % jump in 6 months .
I don't trust any figures now.
since when have the Govt. figures been reliable. One has to see in the recent past first the Inflation parameters were rejigged to give a lower figure and then the frequency of Inflation figures being announced was moved from a weekly exercise to a monthly one.

The last two Union Budgets were a master course in how to fudge the figures and to present a rosy picture while hiding the dire straits of the Indian economy. Even today we are trying to trot up one excuse after another- the latest is that tradionally April has always been a slow month so May onwards things will improve.

As far as the FM is concerned, 2012 is already lost, he is now promising a revival in 2013. In return of his incompetence he is being promoted as the President of India and Commander in Chief of our Armed Forces.
 

sob

Mod
Joined
May 4, 2009
Messages
6,425
Likes
3,805
Country flag
Re: SHOCKING: April industrial output growth only 0.1%, worse than expected

cpmpared to the last quater from Jan 2012 to march 2012, this is not bad at all. in jan the IIP slipped to -6.1 and march IIP was -3.2, so as long as we are in
positive tertory,we will grow by about 6.5%. but in comming months it will pick up, Jan to march quater was the worst, we are not going to go any lower than that.
Sir , this is indeed wishfull thinking. Generally if you look at the figures of major corporates, the last quarter is the best performing quarter, for reasons best known to all of us. Major expenditure takes place in the 2nd quarter to take advantage of the depreciation.

However the inflation figures for the full year are going to come out and in all certainty they are going to be higher than 6.5%, which means that we have had negative growth in absolute terms.
 

Daredevil

On Vacation!
Super Mod
Joined
Apr 5, 2009
Messages
11,615
Likes
5,773
Indian market an unattractive destination, says Goldman Sachs

New Delhi: Indian stock market does not present attractive prospects for investors in the near term amid sluggish domestic and global economic growth outlook, according to Goldman Sachs.

The global investment banking major Goldman Sachs in its report said that a sluggish domestic and global growth outlook would have a bearing on the Indian equities in the coming months.

"We find that the Indian stock market does not present an attractive risk/reward entry point currently as macro headwinds are likely to persist in the near-term," it said.


The report titled 'India: Fade short-lived rally, not too late to underweight Portfolio' focuses on the performance and future outlook for National Stock Exchange's 50-share benchmark Nifty index.

Goldman Sachs said that continued weak domestic growth in the next 3-6 months as well as a poor global growth environment would weigh on Nifty, which has been seeing bearish trends in recent months.

This index, according to Goldman Sachs, is the "most exposed market in Asia to a 'muddle-through' environment through liquidity and foreign corporate debt linkages".

"Poor Nifty performance has been attributable in part to a gridlocked political landscape, plagued by project delays and lack of reforms.

"While we agree that the political headlines have created uncertainty in the market, the main impact to the market is through the investment channel in our view," the report said.

Goldman Sachs noted that an important component of "our underweight view on India" stems from risk of significant capital flight.

It said while the impact of RBI rate cuts is months away, a potentially poor monsoon season poses risks of sticky inflation which in turn might dampen policy flexibility in case growth continues to slide.

Pointing out that India relies on foreign funding, Goldman Sachs said, "lowered growth expectations for India have impacted investment appetite already, and we are wary of policies that could further curb capital flows into the country or beget foreigner equity selling, which has not yet occurred in size."

Concerns are on the rise that Indian economy is losing momentum, mainly after it touched a nine-year low of 6.5 per cent in 2011-12. Also, industrial production rose just 0.1 per cent in April as against 5.3 per cent in the year-ago period.

Indian economy expanded 8.4 per cent for two straight years -- 2009-10 and 2010-11 -- even as many developed nations reeled under the impact of 2008 financial meltdown.
 

Daredevil

On Vacation!
Super Mod
Joined
Apr 5, 2009
Messages
11,615
Likes
5,773
First Murthy, now Premji sends SOS to govt on economy

The noise against so-called 'policy paralysis' of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government is now finding resonance across India Inc.


Two of India's most respected business leaders – Azim Premji and NR Narayana Murthy – have hit out at the condition of the Indian economy, stating their disappointment with the current state of affairs.

In a call with industry analysts, Premji, chairman of Wipro, one of India's largest IT and IT services provider, said on Monday that India is functioning without a leader", according to a report from Elara Capital. Murthy, co-founder and chairman emeritus of Infosys, said he was concerned about the setback to India's image in the past three to four months, according to a research report from Morgan Stanley.

"As an Indian, I feel sad we have come to this state," he told Morgan Stanley, a global bank, according to a research report dated 11 June 2012. The bank sent this report to its clients on Monday. (Read More)


Murthy criticized retrospective imposition of taxes and said that a high growth trajectory is not possible without the participation of foreign investors. They need to see India as a proactive, investor-friendly and stable governance model.


"This is where the government should not send the kind of signals that that it has recently sent by introducing tax laws on a retrospective basis. It does not matter what the intentions are. Nobody can understand intentions; people can only read the laws and then act," the report quoted Murthy.


Amid rising concerns over the country's economic growth prospects, HDFC chairman Deepak Parekh also said that the only thing holding India back at this juncture was "lack of political will" and investors could no longer be placated by talks of "long-term fundamentals".


The same day, credit ratings agency Standard and Poor's on Monday warned that India may become the first among the BRIC—Brazil, Russia, India and China—countries to lose its investment grade rating, citing slowing GDP growth and political roadblocks to economic policymaking among causes.



The political reaction to the comments has been quick. "They are representing a class interest, government is representing a national interest," said Congress party leader Mani Shankar Aiyar of Murthy and Premji's comments.


India's economic growth slowed to 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2012, while GDP growth for the March quarter fell to 5.3 per cent. Other economic indicators have also been slowing in the current fiscal: industrial output in April grew a meager 0.1 per cent after contracting minus 3.1 per cent in March.


Core sector growth, a leading indicator of factory output, grew at 2.2 per cent in April, only marginally higher than the 2 per cent in March. The core sector – which comprises the key infrastructure industries of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity – accounts for about 38 per cent of overall industrial output.


However, Murthy remains confident about India's growth prospects though. He does not think that 2012 is as bad as 1991 but is concerned about rising imports. He feels that the Indian economy would continue to grow at 6 per cent per annum without much effort.


"Even if the government continues to be a spectator rather than a driver, I think we can get 6% (GDP growth). If the government becomes a driver – becomes an active participant in the growth of the economy – then 8% growth is achievable," he said and the report quoted.


On Infosys, he said that the story of the company has been the story of its leaders who have led by example from the front.


"We realized that if we want junior people in the company to follow the values or do whatever is necessary in terms of customer satisfaction, in terms of investor transparency, in terms of focus on society, the company's leaders would have to come to the fore," he was quoted in the Morgan Stanley report.


When asked about his advice to young entrepreneurs, he said that they should be able to express the differentiated value proposition of their idea to the market in a simple sentence. Secondly, they must make sure that the market is ready for their idea. Thirdly, because, entrepreneurship is about deferred gratification – hard work today and, hopefully, success tomorrow – they need to have a good value system. Lastly, they must bring together a team that has mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive set of skills, expertise and experience.
 

Daredevil

On Vacation!
Super Mod
Joined
Apr 5, 2009
Messages
11,615
Likes
5,773
Inflation rises to 7.55% in May, in line with expectations

India's headline inflation in May rose to 7.55 per cent, and will likely intensify calls for the central bank to cut key interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India, which uses the Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation number to decide monetary policy, is scheduled to hold its mid-quarterly policy review next week.

WPI inflation rose 7.23 per cent in April. The government also revised upwards the inflation rate for March from 6.89 to 7.69 per cent, the highest in 2012.

Manufactured products, which carry 64.97 per cent weightage in the WPI, rose only 0.5 per cent in May, translatiing into 5.02 per cent rate of inflation, while food inflation rose 10. 74 per cent. The fuel and power group, which has a 14.91 weightage, rose 1.0 per cent in May, while primary articles, which have a 20.12 weightage, and includes food, non-food and minerals groups, rose 0.1 per cent. In percentage terms, fuel group inflation rose to 11.53 per cent from 11.03 per cent, while primary articles went from 9.87 per cent in April to 10.88 per cent in May.

However, core inflation rose marginally to 4.86 per cent from 4.77 per cent, but still under marginally under the psychologically important 5 per cent mark, enough to act as a trigger for a rate cut. Earlier, RBI deputy governor Subir Gokarn had identified below-5 per cent core inflation as one of the two factors that gives it some "elbow room" for an interest rate cut, the other being lower crude prices.

An NDTV Profit poll had predicted inflation to rise to 7.5 per cent, while Thomson Reuters poll had projected WPI inflation to come in at 7.6 per cent over the same period last fiscal, and higher than the 7.23 per cent rate of inflation in April.

A separate Reuters poll last week showed the RBI is expected to cut its repo rate by at least 25 basis points from the current 8 per cent on June 18. The central bank in April cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points, or 0.5 per cent, more than the widely-expected 25 bps.

The May inflation number was also impacted by a depreciating rupee, which has made key imports, such as crude oil and capital goods more expensive, despite a fall in global crude prices. Last month, state-run oil marketing companies announced the steepest-ever price hike of Rs6.28 a litre, exclusive of local taxes, but later pared it by Rs 2.

However, with about a 1.09 weightage in the wholesale price index, petrol has only a minimal impact on headline inflation. Diesel, which is critical to the goods transportation industry, has a 50-75 basis point weightage in WPI.

Oil Minister S Jaipal Reddy has already ruled out any price hike for the highly-subsidised and inflation-sensitive fuel. Instead, he has recommended a hefty excise duty of up to Rs2.5 lakh on diesel-run cars, saying this would help close OMC's under-recoveries and discourage "dieselisation of the economy".

India's economic growth slowed to 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2012, while GDP growth for the March quarter fell to 5.3 per cent. Other economic indicators have also been slowing in the current fiscal: industrial output in April grew a meager 0.1 per cent after contracting minus 3.1 per cent in March.

Core sector growth, a leading indicator of factory output, grew at 2.2 per cent in April, only marginally higher than the 2 per cent in March. The core sector – which comprises the key infrastructure industries of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity – accounts for about 38 per cent of overall industrial output.

The lower industrial numbers have prompted calls for a rate cut, with industry saying that the slower rate of growth is a result of high interest rates that has forced it to put off investment plans.


WPI in 2012

Month Per Cent

May 7.55

April 7.23

March 7.69 (revised up from 6.89)

February 7. 36

January 6.55
 

Daredevil

On Vacation!
Super Mod
Joined
Apr 5, 2009
Messages
11,615
Likes
5,773
Bad news on Economy keeps on piling day by day. I would be happy to see if we don't go down the drain further than we already have now.
 

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

Detests Jholawalas
Ambassador
Joined
Apr 28, 2012
Messages
7,114
Likes
7,762
^^ I think the economy has plateaued already. Manufacturing is already in zero growth territory and Rupee has depreciated.

Bharat is good in services and depreciated Rupee has ensured that it will take no hit. Only scope is for agriculture to screw up now, but that would not see too much fluctuation.

The only thing to see now is how long Bharat stays in this plateau which is definitely not good.
 

nrj

Ambassador
Joined
Nov 16, 2009
Messages
9,658
Likes
3,911
Country flag
No matter which 'abnormal period' theory you believe, Slowdown will end sooner or later.

Sent via Tapatalk from a galaxy far far away
 

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top