FOREIGN POLICY: New, Strong and Clear Outreach

[Hari Sud]

S. Jaishankar and India’s international profile.

Otherwise very quite S. Jaishankar, Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs, went out with a diplomatic comeback when pushed too far by the US and NATO to support their cause in the Russia - war in Ukraine. The US and the West thru their media and diplomatic assertions were critical of India’s neutral stand on the war and critical of India, making cheap energy (Oil) purchases from Russia. He made some outstanding statements that the West took note of and began to make fewer statements against India.

The following are some quotes:

1. He said that the West should “remember what happened in Afghanistan less than a year ago, where an entire civil society was thrown under the bus by the world”. Now the west is talking about rule based society. It is swept under the rug when it is not Europe.

2. “India is prepared to step forward in a much more substantive way on the big global issues, including in the multilateral arena," Jaishankar told a conference as various ministers from Europe and Asia asked him about New Delhi's stance on the Ukraine war, China's rise and other issues.

3. On the India’s discounted oil purchases from Russia, Jaishankar reminded them of their own record. Europe purchases more oil from Russia in an afternoon than total oil purchases made by India recently…. (A big laughter).

4. About Kashmir issue, Jaishankar told a senior US Senator that India will “settle” the Kashmir issue on its own when the American lawmaker brought up the issue during an interaction at the Munich Security Conference. He added that when it comes to Kashmir, I don’t know how it ends, but let’s make sure that two democracies will end it differently.

5. He responded to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's "rise in human rights abuses" in India remarks. Jaishankar said, "Look, people are entitled to have views about us. But we are also equally entitled to have views about their views and about the interests, and the lobbies and the vote banks which drive that. So, whenever there is a discussion, I can tell you that we will not be reticent about speaking out."

These few comers have quite soothed politicians and media in the West. During the Raisina dialogues in Delhi, where quite a few senior politicians and officials were present, criticism of India was muted.

A senior politician, Stephen Harper, Former Prime Minister of Canada said that India’s government is creating the nation’s own identity. “India is defining itself and it’s definition is changing according to its economic transformation, global trade, support in medical issues and its nature of being a free and democratic society,” he added. “As China rises as a disruptive power, India pushes itself to play a greater role,” Harper added.

Thank you S. Jaishankar for taking India's international profile to the next level.

 

[gajapati]

Many discussions have been added in ORF youtube channel recently

https://www.youtube.com/c/ORFDelhi/videos

 

[ezsasa]

Many discussions have been added in ORF youtube channel recently

https://www.youtube.com/c/ORFDelhi/videos

interesting topics can be put here...

Global Think tank discussions on India & neighbourhood

as far as i recall, this is the first non-political(domestic) discussion on modi that is available. in other words, book version of what DFI mostly discusses on, outside of domestic political topics. ===== Crunch Time: Narendra Modi’s National Security Crises

defenceforumindia.com

 

[Hari Sud]

Wooing about India's dependence on Russia for arms.

How has the Russian-Ukrainian war affected India? There is a very visible impact that expected GDP growth could decline by one percentage point. Also the inflation can touch one or two points higher. These are negative repercussions, but there are also good things to highlight. There is a chance that some industry from China may relocate to India. I bet that America and the UK together with France, who monopolize arms technology worldwide may loosen their controls to let India have better access to defense technology and remove India away from Russia’s defense purchases. In addition, that belligerent China may unleash its fangs in Indo-Pacific, hence US believes that India is a good counter.

All this fits into the Indian make at home policy (Atamnirbhar). Recently, a VIP parade has taken place in Delhi. The British Prime Minister was in Delhi; two Secretary (highest officials) from US government have been in discussion with India, PM, Modi is visiting France, etc. President Biden is coming to Japan and South Korea for a QUAD meeting. He will hold a private discussion with Prime Minister Modi. Furthermore, we must remember that the United States have left India considerable leeway on the CAATSA file. All this happening to take India out of Russia’s sphere of influence.

Some of the statements made by the Western leader include:

Boris Johnson of the UK has offered support to new fighter jets designed and built in India, offering the best of British know-how. The American are not far behind, the US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has offered advanced American weaponry to India, etc. Like this, a major effort is underway to offer India better technology to build at home and stay out of the Russian sphere of influence.

Here, there are two distinct issues involved;

1. Spare parts for items already bought should continue from Russia.

2. India must limit the purchase of any new items from Russia.

The first question is a non-starter. India cannot just dump all the Russian hardware. Any technology transfer underway to make whole weapons or part of them cannot be abandoned. Deals like AK-203 or S-400 have to continue. Any spares supply has to be supplemented with make at home or sourced elsewhere.

Second, India will not source any new major item from Russia. No new aircraft, missile, tank, destroyer, submarine, ammo, etc. will be bought from Russia. Instead, they will either be manufactured in India as part of the Atamnirbhar program or they will be bought from the West.

Part one is easier said than done. There is $60 billion Russian hardware with the Indian armed forces sourced in last three decades. It cannot be dumped. It has to wait until it's obsolete.

For the second part, the West prices are triple, mostly extra R&D, training fees, profits and very strict export control rules (US is an example). These will have to be significantly reduced to make these attractive for India to buy.

Something is going to give in a little while when Russia is occupied in Ukraine. India may opt for western items for some and for others, made in India program will have to be accelerated.

 

[Blademaster]

Wooing about India's dependence on Russia for arms.

How has the Russian-Ukrainian war affected India? There is a very visible impact that expected GDP growth could decline by one percentage point. Also the inflation can touch one or two points higher. These are negative repercussions, but there are also good things to highlight. There is a chance that some industry from China may relocate to India. I bet that America and the UK together with France, who monopolize arms technology worldwide may loosen their controls to let India have better access to defense technology and remove India away from Russia’s defense purchases. In addition, that belligerent China may unleash its fangs in Indo-Pacific, hence US believes that India is a good counter.

All this fits into the Indian make at home policy (Atamnirbhar). Recently, a VIP parade has taken place in Delhi. The British Prime Minister was in Delhi; two Secretary (highest officials) from US government have been in discussion with India, PM, Modi is visiting France, etc. President Biden is coming to Japan and South Korea for a QUAD meeting. He will hold a private discussion with Prime Minister Modi. Furthermore, we must remember that the United States have left India considerable leeway on the CAATSA file. All this happening to take India out of Russia’s sphere of influence.

Some of the statements made by the Western leader include:

Boris Johnson of the UK has offered support to new fighter jets designed and built in India, offering the best of British know-how. The American are not far behind, the US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has offered advanced American weaponry to India, etc. Like this, a major effort is underway to offer India better technology to build at home and stay out of the Russian sphere of influence.

Here, there are two distinct issues involved;

1. Spare parts for items already bought should continue from Russia.

2. India must limit the purchase of any new items from Russia.

The first question is a non-starter. India cannot just dump all the Russian hardware. Any technology transfer underway to make whole weapons or part of them cannot be abandoned. Deals like AK-203 or S-400 have to continue. Any spares supply has to be supplemented with make at home or sourced elsewhere.

Second, India will not source any new major item from Russia. No new aircraft, missile, tank, destroyer, submarine, ammo, etc. will be bought from Russia. Instead, they will either be manufactured in India as part of the Atamnirbhar program or they will be bought from the West.

Part one is easier said than done. There is $60 billion Russian hardware with the Indian armed forces sourced in last three decades. It cannot be dumped. It has to wait until it's obsolete.

For the second part, the West prices are triple, mostly extra R&D, training fees, profits and very strict export control rules (US is an example). These will have to be significantly reduced to make these attractive for India to buy.

Something is going to give in a little while when Russia is occupied in Ukraine. India may opt for western items for some and for others, made in India program will have to be accelerated.

I agree with you on most points except for going for western weapons. I would accept buying more Rafales and entering into joint production/research as long as we get share of IPR with either France or UK. But I would not buy any critical weapon platforms from US. Smart munitions, ammos, missiles, drones, and cargo planes are fine because if US decides to impose sanctions, we can still use the stuff we bought from US without any side effects and it won't affect Indian war operations. But if you buy critical weapon platforms from US and US decides to sanction India, India is fucked.

I would not trust UK that much. I would give France a bit more leeway. But from now on, India must research and develop its own critical weapon platforms to avoid being hostage to any nation.

 

[ezsasa]

Krauts still seething about our non support on the Russia matter I see.

DFI needs to have inhouse expertise to track european news, since modi govt will be focussing on EU for an year or two now.

 

[karn]

DFI needs to have inhouse expertise to track european news, since modi govt will be focussing on EU for an year or two now.

What makes you say that ..

 

[ezsasa]

What makes you say that ..

Modi govt focussed on neighbourhood, US and africa in first term, they started focussing on nordic countries in 2018 then the pandemic hit. they focussed on UAE and australia and QUAD during the pandemic, now they are resuming their focus on nordic and european countries.

since we have limited foreign policy resources, modi govt focusses on a few regions at a time, and move on to the next set. now the focus is on EU FTA. even during the pandemic, engagement with nordic countries continued.

 

[Butter Chicken]

#BREAKING : The New #SouthKorean President Yoon Seok-youl urged #India to discuss #NorthKorea's actions in the UN Security Council.

 

[SGOperative]

#BREAKING : The New #SouthKorean President Yoon Seok-youl urged #India to discuss #NorthKorea's actions in the UN Security Council.

The guy is very anti china, good chance to get the onboard

 

[Butter Chicken]

Must read article about India -China relations

China’s Evolving Strategic Discourse on India • Stimson Center

India has significant influence over Chinese strategy, which New Delhi should better leverage against Beijing.

www.stimson.org

 

[Tshering22]

The guy is very anti china, good chance to get them onboard

That's a good thing, but we also need to see the flip side. Given his eccentric nature, he will definitely have some things that are less-than-desirable. One possibility is that he could be a complete suck-up to the Americans in the future. While we couldn't care less about what South Korea does for its own politics, as a thumb rule, East Asians can be more Americans than Americans themselves.

So far, the man is new so we will give him some leeway. Let's see how balanced he is when it comes to a balanced foreign policy before making major commitments.

 

[gajapati]

Must read article about India -China relations

China’s Evolving Strategic Discourse on India • Stimson Center

India has significant influence over Chinese strategy, which New Delhi should better leverage against Beijing.

www.stimson.org

Good article .. Current geopolitical situation is perfect for india to be a important part of global value chain . We were attacked because we were seen as a economically and militarily weak nation . This 2 decades ll define our destiny . Let their worse fear come true .

 

[Butter Chicken]

Indian Ambassador interview with France 24

 

[no smoking]

Must read article about India -China relations

China’s Evolving Strategic Discourse on India • Stimson Center

India has significant influence over Chinese strategy, which New Delhi should better leverage against Beijing.

www.stimson.org

Yeh, another example of India style wishful thinking. The writer just simply pick some words from some Chinese analysists' article to support his own idea even though these words may not mean that way.

For example here:

"In China’s domestic circles, the idea pushed a panic button and in popular Chinese-language discourse, the Indo-Pacific came to be seen as “a big pit dug for China” ( 美国用印太战略给中国挖了个大坑), "

Any Chinese understands that "美国用印太战略给中国挖了个大坑" means exactly opposite: Indo-pacific strategy is a bluffing strategy, don't be panic!

 

[Shuturmurg]

Yeh, another example of India style wishful thinking. The writer just simply pick some words from some Chinese analysists' article to support his own idea even though these words may not mean that way.

For example here:

"In China’s domestic circles, the idea pushed a panic button and in popular Chinese-language discourse, the Indo-Pacific came to be seen as “a big pit dug for China” ( 美国用印太战略给中国挖了个大坑), "

Any Chinese understands that "美国用印太战略给中国挖了个大坑" means exactly opposite: Indo-pacific strategy is a bluffing strategy, don't be panic!

Do you have some better explanation of China's bipolar India policy ?

 

[no smoking]

Do you have some better explanation of China's bipolar India policy ?

Basically, could be explained in one sentence:" India is not friend, either enemy, let's focus on Americans".

 

[Tshering22]

Do you have some better explanation of China's bipolar India policy ?

It's basically just a hard bargain really; trying to take as much as they can for themselves, while highlighting that they do not want to fight. It's like the situation where someone is sitting on a park bench and the person sitting beside keeps inching towards the other guy while talking sweetly. It goes to a point that the first guy just gets up and walks off or is forced to punch the creep.

Weird analogy but it holds true for the CCP. They do not want a direct confrontation as they are currently on the hit list of all western powers and the fact that there is enough internal turmoil within China. Lockdowns, food hoarding, experiments going wrong, people protesting, alleged failing health of Emperor Xi, etc.. This means the CCP is not in a position to take a hostile outward stance against everyone. The last thing they want is for a troubled world to forget Russia and re-focus back on CCP.

Unless and until we respond in kind, this salami-slicing and hot-and-cold policy will continue.

 

[Hari Sud]

QUAD Summit on May 24, 2022

President Biden is coming to Japan, along with Narender Modi and the Australian Prime Minister. The supposed meeting is to move the QUAD agenda forward to address the upcoming Chinese threat. It is war time in Europe now and US is heavily involved in this war, still he is coming to Japan to push ahead the QUAD agenda.

We know that, none of the above four have meeting of mind on the current issues still they are sitting down with Japanese Prime Minister as host. Of all the issues, possible Chinese military moves on Taiwan is prime on their mind. There are other objectives, or other things that need to be dealt with.

US Objectives

China's military movement on Taiwan scares the US. Despite being a military superpower, they are unable to fight on two fronts in Europe and Asia. Therefore, they would like to upload the task of the fight against China to India, Japan and Australia. They already have measures in place to establish a nuclear alliance with Austalia (AUKUS). To challenge China in the China Sea, Indian, Australian and American navies combined can overcome all Chinese movements. Also, Chinese are incapable of crossing Himalayas to stage a 1962 type military operation, hence the challenge is to be vigilant and well equipped to counter all Chinese moves both at land and at sea.

President Biden's other goal is to continue to convince India to support the United States in their European war... Tough luck. India's low-cost oil purchases from Russia also need to be cut. Again Tough luck unless US exports oil to India at the same price as purchases from Russia. Other smaller issues with Russian spare parts can be addressed if the US provides technical assistance to manufacture them in India. India promises not to purchase additional military systems.

Australia

There have always been questions about eight nuclear submarines for Australia. Now we know that the Chinese are making an effort to reach Australia’s backyard. They have leased or purchased one or two islands to set up military bases in the Solomon Island chain. That is too close to Australia. While the Chinese are in no position to threaten Australia at 3,000 miles, their presence is threatening. That is the whole purpose of Chinese military buildup i.e. threaten but not fight.

Australia has also indicated their solidarity with Taiwan, which is difficult for Chinese to handle, hence they are not able to see eye to eye with Australia.

India

Chinese main opponent in Asia is India. If it is properly supported by commercial ties with the United States and Europe, then India can push back China very well. The Chinese Himalayan invasion is out of the question, but India can block Chinese oil supplies from the Middle East, and block trade with Africa and Europe. All India needs are more capable seagoing vessels, missiles and surveillance hardware. In addition, India needs trade to earn money enough to match Chinese military buildup. That is what Modi will bring up for discussion during the QUAD meet.

A good thing which could come off the QUAD, is to prevent Pakistani intervention during any Sino-Indian confrontation. That support, the QUAD could provide with ease.

Japan

Japan, a rich country with a pacifist constitution, is incapable of constructing a military machine in the service of its interests. The Chinese know it hence is belligerent towards Japan. Once there is constitutional reform, the Japanese can afford to spend three times more on defense than they currently do. These will be points of discussion during the QUAD meet.

All the above issues and many more cannot be resolved in one QUAD meet. But the seriousness of the leaders to address these questions in the next 5-7 years will be a good beginning.

To sum up, QUAD is not an Asian NATO, but an understanding of self-help.

 

[maximus777]

If the "self-help" is not treaty bound, its not worth the paper that its printed on