Pakistan is warming up to U.S.; in fact dumping China
Pakistan is currently shifting its allegiance towards the United States, signaling a departure from its longstanding association with China.
Over the past two decades, Pakistan's foreign policy has been dominated by its robust relationship with China. This alliance commenced with the initiation of a $50 billion road construction project stretching from the sparsely populated and less industrialized western regions of China (Kashgar) to Gawadar in the restive Sind province of Pakistan, traversing through its densely populated hinterland. Although there were high expectations for this ambitious road project, the anticipated benefits failed to materialize. China, witnessing Pakistan's declining prosperity as the primary cause of the project's failure, began losing interest.
The Pakistani Army, a decisive force guiding the nation's policies, had a keen interest in procuring military hardware from China, an option not readily available from its traditional benefactor, the United States. The military aid from China, especially against India, was welcomed by the Pakistani Army, leading to increased cooperation between China and Pakistan with a shared focus on countering India.
Regrettably, the much-touted friendship between China and Pakistan began to unravel when Pakistan faced a balance of payment crisis three years ago. Seeking relief on debt payments, Pakistan engaged with the West, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while China showed limited willingness to adjust its debt terms. The realization that Chinese cooperation and economic support were elusive dawned upon Pakistan, compounded by issues arising from the quality of Chinese military hardware.
By 2021, Pakistan's balance of payment situation had worsened, prompting the IMF to demand stringent measures, which Pakistan reluctantly accepted in 2022/23. As part of the deal, $700 million was released out of a $3 billion package after implementing certain measures. Concurrently, political changes aligned with the wishes of the Pakistani Army, resulting in the installation of a more Army-friendly Prime Minister in 2022. However, his tenure was short-lived as new elections were announced.
In February 2022, the Ukraine war erupted, leading the United States and its NATO allies to seek significant military assistance to support Ukraine. Facing challenges in the conflict, the U.S. explored alternative sources for military supplies. Sensing an opportunity to rebuild ties with the U.S., Pakistan offered to supply large quantities of 155mm artillery shells. The U.S. accepted the offer, and Pakistan, at the U.S.'s request, provided approximately $500 million worth of shells to Ukraine. This gesture marked a revival of friendship between the U.S. and Pakistan, overshadowing any concerns about Pakistan's past double-dealing.
Currently, the Pakistani Army chief has been extended an invitation to the U.S. and is being honored by the Pentagon as a trusted ally. Politicians in Pakistan have been marginalized, and with elections on the horizon, the Pakistani Army exerts considerable influence. It appears that the heyday of the Pakistani Army's association with the U.S. has returned, with the consequential casualty being the diminishing ties with China. Pakistan is poised to secure the remaining IMF loan, and the specific military hardware the Pakistani military may demand from the U.S. remains uncertain at this juncture.
