If true I say blessing in disguise uncle Sam wanna do arm twisting fuck them.
If true this is the warning shot across the bow . I suspect things will get worse as there's no way in hell GoI'd accept US's demands without being accused of capitulation. Meanwhile , this is BAD NEWS for the GE F - 404 TFs supplies.
I suspect this is why we're seeing movement in reviving the Kaveri TF program which otherwise would've followed the earlier schedule of certifying the Dry Thrust variant of the Kaveri on board the AURA / GHATAK UCAV before sanctioning the AFB version of it .
If anyone had any doubts about GE being slack about deliveries DELIBERATELY on orders placed in 2021 , this is it & not the nonsense GE's been bandying about that given low demand for the F - 404 TF , they can re-start the line only for ~ 20 odd nos per annum.
So what are the solutions ?
As of now quite a few -
We can explore the Israeli options for HALE drones though as the video makes clear , Israeli bargaining power is hugely compromised given their present situation . Hence there's no guarantee we'd get what we want from them .
We ought to kickstart a program involving the Pvt sector in this along with DRDO , only if need be , as far as involvement of the latter goes . While we may not get what we want or in time , this program is essential for the future development programs of such armaments.
In any case even if negotiations with Israel commence today by the time we wrap them up & issue an order it'd be a good 2-3 years if not later given the speed with which we move.
This in be turn begs the question if we're willing to wait , why not wait for the presidential elections towards the end of this year & hope the new incumbent takes a favorable view of the situation. Though this approach has its limitations as there's a strong lobby operating against us in DC .
I suspect even if the future administration is favourably disposed to us the State Department which has always adopted a hostile view of us will throw a wrench in the works , which in any case won't work in our favor if the present administration is returned to power which seems the likely scenario.
I'm afraid this leaves us with few options for the future . We ought to persist with the F - 404 procurement ( if it's still on the table ) for the Mk-1a as we don't have a choice . We've gone too far down the road to change course. This is where the Kaveri TF program comes into play .
If we can certify the AFB version in say 5-7 years , given the fact that GE would be supplying 20 nos per annum , our production capacity of the Mk-1a wouldn't exceed those nos. meaning we can equip the 97 nos Mk-1a to be ordered with the Kaveri , assuming mfg of the first lot of 83 nos are completed by 2029-30.
The downside of this move is we'd be mfg Mk-1a alongside the Mk-2 , the AMCA Mk-1 & the TEDBF. Which brings me to the next part of our dilemma. What do we do with the Mk-2 program & its successors the AMCA Mk-1 & the TEDBF ?
I think given the US stance , its past record & the paucity of choices , the only party which can deliver what we want is the French. I don't see the Russians as an option even now as they'd have been the first we'd have approached if we really were interested in their TFs way before we approached the US which was in the 1980s when Indira Gandhi first broached the subject with the Ronald Reagan administration which was later taken to fruition under the Rajiv Gandhi administration.
If we haven't done so even during the worst time ever in our relationship in the aftermath of the Pokhran 2 tests & stayed the course , that should tell you what the establishment & the IAF think of the Russian TFs especially the RD-33 & its various derivatives.
This is in turn vastly increases the bargaining power of the French but we don't have a choice . Moreover given the shabby treatment the French have received courtesy AUKUS & the Aussie submarine procurement plan , they wouldn't be susceptible to US pressure. In fact quite the opposite they'd be anxious to get back at the Anglos.
The first order of business given the depleting squadron strength & the fact that we won't get more than 20 Mk-1a per annum if at all , should open the eyes of the bhosadiwale babudom in the MoD & the dhotis - their political bosses (who even otherwise have shown themselves rarely competent to run anything above a Zilla Parishad leave alone a state) would be to urgently expedite the order for the remaining 2 squadrons of Rafales increasing them to 3 , club it with the IN order & get Dassault to establish a line in MIHAN that too on priority besides expediting the MRFA tender & seeing it to fruition ASAP.
The next order of business would be to sign that goddamn deal for the development of the 120-130 KN TF with SAFRAN ASAP & get their help in developing the F - 414 equivalent to power the Mk-2 & it's successor programs. This is easier said than done as the entire design parameters of the Mk-2 would undergo some change from the superficial to the significant .
OTOH I don't see much of an issue with SAFRAN as they've already developed such a derivative of the M-88 which is due to go into the Rafales during their MLU which would go along with the F-5 upgrades towards the end of this decade . But all this is contingent on how fast MoD move their black stinky hairy backsides on concluding the agreement for the JV with SAFRAN for the 130 KN TF .
Another important point is the mfg ToT we were supposed to get courtesy GE by way of the F - 414 to be mfgd locally out here. We'd need a similar agreement with SAFRAN to go with their M-88 derivatives which'd power the Mk-2 & the successor programs to be mfgd out here .
GoI needs to AT LEAST commence talks with France on the above topics & make as much as they can out of a bad situation by presenting France with a once in a lifetime package deal , while awaiting the results of the Presidential elections towards the end of the year .
