Civil war in Ukraine

[assassin162]

I don't think so.
A Russian offensive will be very costly to both sides now, with every side entrenched and waiting.
There is no surprising the Ukrainians now and you can't curbstomp anyone without surprise.
With it's falling demography, I doubt Russia has the appetite for a casualty heavy war.

This will probably turn into their own LOC with both sides breaking ceasefires and making tactical gains and losses but nothing more than a village here, a few buildings there.

How? In Air, Navy, ew, cyber warfare no contest at all. Only contest will be in land forces domain. Will Russian airforce and navy sit idle as neutral in the war? Russia will likely move from all sides, bomabard any Ukranian formations, only fight Ukrainians may fight will be gureilla fight.
But Ukrainians are no Pashtoons or even Chechens, do they have the stomach for a brutal gureilla war?

 

[The Shrike]

Meme time: Russia backed Ukrainian seperatists now:

 

[Flash12]

Video of the night battle of the special forces of the Ministry of State Security of the DPR with Ukrainian saboteurs in the Kievsky district of Donetsk.
DPR special forces have two wounded (they will live), Ukrainian terrorists have: 1 killed, 1 taken prisoner.

 

[sorcerer]

I don't think so.
A Russian offensive will be very costly to both sides now, with every side entrenched and waiting.
There is no surprising the Ukrainians now and you can't curbstomp anyone without surprise.
With it's falling demography, I doubt Russia has the appetite for a casualty heavy war.

This will probably turn into their own LOC with both sides breaking ceasefires and making tactical gains and losses but nothing more than a village here, a few buildings there.

If Russia is to invade, it'll probably try to prop up some insurgency in the Ukrainian heartland as well, and we don't see that just yet.

This is going to be a massive drain on Ukrainian resources and economy though.
Maybe after the pandemonium has run it's course and people finally start feeling that an uneasy peace is around the corner, Russia actually attacks.
That will take anywhere from an year to a decade more.

Hard to say just yet.

Put siege on country..work on the inside for a change in Govt..or make the current one a better puppet.
most western nations will agree to that to avoid war..
Afterall its a win win.

Say a change in govt after a few months..that will look natural

 

[Waanar]

How? In Air, Navy, ew, cyber warfare no contest at all. Only contest will be in land forces domain. Will Russian airforce and navy sit idle as neutral in the war? Russia will likely move from all sides, bomabard any Ukranian formations, only fight Ukrainians may fight will be gureilla fight.
But Ukrainians are no Pashtoons or even Chechens, do they have the stomach for a brutal gureilla war?

Let's wait and watch.

If Ukrainians were so easy to roll over, Russia wouldn't have played around and simply pushed in.
Secondly, it's not just about fighting capability. Even if Russia has wargamed every economic outcome possible, I still believe they're not ready for what might come next.

The cost-benefit ratio is too low.


As for Pashtoons and Chechens, their capability is exaggerated.
They've been rolled over multiple times and only survive because of ROEs and home turf, which will be the same in the case of Ukrainians (even more so). It's not right to generalize but Ukrainians are also way more intelligent and organized than those two groups.

Yes, Russia isn't going to some far off land that will challenge it's logistics heavily but still, the entire sum of the things it may have to face in a war with Ukraine just doesn't seem worth it.

 

[Flash12]

From an interview with a Ukrainian military in the Donbass to the American Vice channel:

“There are not so many people who support what we are doing - the armed forces of Ukraine, in general, in this struggle, in this war, in the East of Ukraine. Here people consider Russians to be their brothers, so the local population can walk here, smile, but they help, they work for the other side. They transmit information, correct artillery fire.

 

[Jimih]

I don't think so.
A Russian offensive will be very costly to both sides now, with every side entrenched and waiting.
There is no surprising the Ukrainians now and you can't curbstomp anyone without surprise.
With it's falling demography, I doubt Russia has the appetite for a casualty heavy war.

This will probably turn into their own LOC with both sides breaking ceasefires and making tactical gains and losses but nothing more than a village here, a few buildings there.

If Russia is to invade, it'll probably try to prop up some insurgency in the Ukrainian heartland as well, and we don't see that just yet.

This is going to be a massive drain on Ukrainian resources and economy though.
Maybe after the pandemonium has run it's course and people finally start feeling that an uneasy peace is around the corner, Russia actually attacks.
That will take anywhere from an year to a decade more.

Hard to say just yet.

You all cannot see the sarcasm here in my post.

0nly @Flash12 got it.

 

[assassin162]

Russian Economy ~
There is a thinking thay Russia does not have economic strength to withstand America or NATO. See Russia is just doing fine in GDP PPP at around 4.4 trillion dollars.
Two) Russia has more easy access to hard cash compared to other countries vis a vis comparable gdps due to oil and gas exports. So it has the excess cash that it can burn at will.
Three) has a vast military complex of USSR era which they are just trying to maintain, they dont have to invent the wheel, just keep rotating it.
Four) Russia does not imports much. Hence for a country like Russia, gdp ppp becomes more important.
Five) And if Russia succesfully takes over Ukriane and Belarus, it's gdp ppp will rise to 5.2 trillion dollars and will remain 4th largest at least for next decades (after overtaking japan in 2~3 years).
Six) All this when Russia is sanctioned economically by America and it's supporting ecosystem. Guess what will happen if someday Amedica decides to lift sanctions eyeing to corner China.
7) Regarding end of oil and gas economy ~
Europe will continue to always be net importer of Energy. Gas will itself continue for a long term, Petrochemicals, blue hydrogen are going to be there for next half a century.

More on Russian Budget ~
Indian budget for 2022 is of 34 lakh crores +, with govt revenue being some 22 lakh crores and debt being more than 12 lakh crores.
Russian budget for this year is 24 lakh crores and it's budget is usually fiscal surplus with exception being 2020.
Meanwhile Russian GDP is half of India in dollar terms. Russia is cash rich, cash ready and that is what that counts in war, short or long.
So, Russian economy is in doldrums and all is fake and dont have your hopes high. Russian economy is doing bad in dollar terms but overall the economy is very well defended for everything and will survive any war or sanctions.

 

[assassin162]

As for Pashtoons and Chechens, their capability is exaggerated.
They've been rolled over multiple times and only survive because of ROEs and home turf, which will be the same in the case of Ukrainians (even more so). It's not right to generalize but Ukrainians are also way more intelligent and organized than those two groups.

Yes, Russia isn't going to some far off land that will challenge it's logistics heavily but still, the entire sum of the things it may have to face in a war with Ukraine just doesn't seem worth it.

Pashtoons and Chechens also had geography tailor made for guirella warfare, Ukraine is a flat terrain. Only way Russian prospects can be harmed is through protests and low level rebellions that will be powered by west after Russia acquires it.
Anyways I am deliberately being a hawk in all this discussion. So, consider my view from that perspective only.

 

[Marliii]

@Akim do you guys have t84 tanks in good no's now?

 

[assassin162]

From an interview with a Ukrainian military in the Donbass to the American Vice channel:

“There are not so many people who support what we are doing - the armed forces of Ukraine, in general, in this struggle, in this war, in the East of Ukraine. Here people consider Russians to be their brothers, so the local population can walk here, smile, but they help, they work for the other side. They transmit information, correct artillery fire.

Wow

 

[Akim]

@Akim do you guys have t84 tanks in good no's now?

No. 6 pieces doesn't count.
However, the T-64 is also a good tank. It is certainly worse than BM Oplot, but not 2-3 times.

 

[Akim]

Wow

Let them continue to think so.
But he talked about the line of demarcation. between the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Russian militants.

 

[Waanar]

Pashtoons and Chechens also had geography tailor made for guirella warfare, Ukraine is a flat terrain. Only way Russian prospects can be harmed is through protests and low level rebellions that will be powered by west after Russia acquires it.
Anyways I am deliberately being a hawk in all this discussion. So, consider my view from that perspective only.

Mate, I'm the hawkiest of hawks, much to the annoyance of my peers. I totally know what you mean.

As I said, we'll have to wait and watch.

Flat as a land may be, if an entire nation is resistant to a foreign rule, you can't do anything short of a genocide to pacify them.
I'm not saying Ukrainians are all heavily anti Russian, but then again, pockets of support can't help the Russians rule over their entire land.

A political subversion like @sorcerer just wrote a few minutes ago is the only answer for Russia's pains as of now.

 

[tribendra bisoi]

Its up to them .if they wanted a merger they wouldn't have got out of the soviet union.most ukarinians hate russia because of soviet legecy of using them like cannonfodder

Young generation ukranians hate Russia . Some in Old generation still have some fondness for soviet times ( wht i understood from blogs of indian youtuber travelling to Ukrain ) . And i think russian speaking population on eastern side have some soft corner for russia .. thats wht the civil war all about .

A pro war guy in Russia might be thinking - They dont have demographic dividend to be fed and provided with employment or prospect of a sudden economic rise in recent future .. In short term there ll be loss like economic loss due sanctions and loss of life ranging up to 15k / 20k .. But in long term they ll gain millions of russian speaking population and land .

 

[Akim]

Young generation ukranians hate Russia . Some in Old generation still have some fondness for soviet times ( wht i understood from blogs of indian youtuber travelling to Ukrain ) . And i think russian speaking population on eastern side have some soft corner for russia .. thats wht the civil war all about .

A pro war guy in Russia might be thinking - They dont have demographic dividend to be fed and provided with employment or prospect of a sudden economic rise in recent future .. In short term there ll be loss like economic loss due sanctions and loss of life ranging up to 15k / 20k .. But in long term they ll gain millions of russian speaking population and land .

Do you write in Hindi here?

 

[warmachine541]

IT HAS BEGUN.

 

[SwordOfDarkness]

IT HAS BEGUN.

If this is the regular Osint stuff, then wait till other sources confirm

 

[Dharmic_Crusader]

 

[warmachine541]

If this is the regular Osint stuff, then wait till other sources confirm

Russia is claiming to have killed 5. Ukraine has denied sending vehicles to Russia.