Civil war in Ukraine

[pmaitra]

Ukraine: 'Hey, Russia!! What Have You Done for Me Lately?'

There's a tendency in Kiev and among the western commentariat to blame Russia for all Ukraine's problems - but Mark Chapman has had enough.

Mark Chapman [SOURCE]

Mark Chapman is our regular contributor. This article also appeared at The Kremlin Stooge.

Gas discounts days are over

Did you happen to catch, "The Wedding Singer" when it was playing, circa 1998? Set in the 80's, it is the somewhat sappy story of Robbie (played by Adam Sandler) and Julia (Drew Barrymore), two ordinary people who are each engaged to someone who is breaking their heart and is all wrong for them. What they really need, of course, is each other. Predictable, quite a few funny moments, okay light entertainment. Boy meets girl.

But there's this great scene in it, in which Robbie is playing a song he has been writing for his fiancee Linda, to Julia. Alternating between his wistful love for Linda and his fury at her endless manipulation and shallowness, the lyric swings wildly from,

And when we kiss I know that you need me too.
Can't believe I found a love that's so pure and true"¦​

to,

But it all was bullshit.
It was a goddam joke.
And when I think of you Linda,
I hope you ----ing choke"¦​

As he screams out his pain to the accompaniment of the final discordant chord, we see his musical rival, Jimmie Moore (Jon Lovitz) concealed behind a curtain in the wings, having heard the entire performance. He remarks quietly to himself, "He's losing his mind"¦and I'm reaping the benefits!"

I was reminded of that scene as I digested Mark Adomanis's "While The West Was Debating About 'Defensive Weapons,' Ukraine's Economy Collapsed," in Forbes (thanks for the link, Moscow Exile).

Of course the news that Ukraine's economy is collapsing like a grand piano that has had its legs kicked out from under it is unremarkable to anyone who has been following the slow-motion nightmare of the Ukraine conflict and civil war.

Expect Russia to front Ukraine gas on credit even though Ukraine has a terrible history of refusing to pay for what it has already consumed and – when its friends calm it down from its fist-shaking tantrum – announces it will be mature and reasonable (take the high road, as it were) by naming a much lower figure that it considers fair discharge of all debts. And for Russia to stand aside as Ukraine's army rolls over its own eastern regions and crushes their rebellion.

That last part is particularly resonant, for me, because it's not the first time we have seen Mark Adomanis go off the rails as if his breakfast cereal had been liberally dusted with cocaine. For instance, back in 2012 he went all foamy about free speech and Pu$$y Riot, confiding to his audience, "After all, it's not hard to imagine why people would support the young, female rock musicians in their struggle against a brutal, corrupt, cynical, and increasing unpopular system." Take note, folks – that's one of the fairest and most balanced among the "Russia analyst" community from the United States speaking. The Russian system is brutal, corrupt and increasingly unpopular. Perhaps that's how it looks from Washington; I shouldn't be at all surprised.

Oddly enough, the current conflict in Ukraine results also from a freedom of speech issue, in which the eastern regions said "Stuff it, Kiev" after the U.S. State Department-backed-and-financed coup drove a democratically-elected leader, who had already agreed to all of the opposition parties' demands, out of the country and brought to power a self-appointed junta supported by fascist flag-wavers sporting Nazi regalia. The Donbas said "No, thank you", and refused to accept the authority of the unelected government. Apparently they did not have the right to do that, or at least Mark Adomanis did not respond with a fiery denunciation of the junta for rolling against them with a military operation. Not that I saw.

Then there was the Edward Snowden affair. Mr. Adomanis capered about, figuratively speaking, hurling vituperation at Mr. Snowden for essentially defending the right of people around the world to speak freely without their conversations being listened in on by the National Security Administration of the United States; they had tapped Angela Merkel's telephone for years, and Germany was one of America's staunchest allies.

Then it developed that Mr. Adomanis also worked as a consultant to Booz-Allen Hamilton, the management company for whom Mr. Snowden had worked in the USA. Booz Allen enjoyed a very close relationship with the U.S. leadership and the intelligence services – current U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper is a former Booz Allen executive. Former DNI Michael McConnell is Booz Allen's current vice-president. Former CIA director and raving neo-con James Woolsey was also a former Booz Allen vice-president.

Mr. Adomanis subsequently deleted his posts on that subject, but I think it should be clear that he has a sliding scale of grief over free-speech issues when he slobbers and moans about the cruel dictatorship that will not permit homeless unemployed delinquents to shout about shit and bitches and Putin in its houses of worship, but maintains that Edward Snowden is a traitor who should be shot because free speech is just a commodity to be harvested and exploited like any other.

But let's not get too far off the subject – free speech was not the issue I wanted to look at today. No; as I mentioned earlier, I was intrigued by Mark's position on Russia's responsibility to help Ukraine move as painlessly and joyously as possible from its own orbit to that of the EU, just as if no harm to Russia was intended thereby, and such a move would be mutually beneficial. Because that's pretty much the official stand of the U.S. State Department.

"Russia is damaging Ukraine's economy faster than the US and its European allies can provide support," Mark squeals, parroting Bloomberg. Come again? What's this based on? Oh, I see: "Gazprom, the Russian natural gas monopoly that still provides the lion's share of Ukraine's energy, is threatening to cut off gas supplies unless it receives prepayment for future deliveries. Given Ukraine's incredibly precarious state finances and its extreme shortage of foreign currency (Ukraine pays Russia for natural gas in US dollars) this new effort is tantamount to driving Kiev into bankruptcy."

Let's recap. Russia shut off Ukraine's gas back in 2009, complaining that Ukraine was siphoning off and stealing Russian gas even though it got it at an attractive, subsidized price. Ukraine denied it, insisting it was diverting gas for technical reasons, to maintain pressure in the pipeline and ensure the transit of Russian exports. Some said Ukraine had actually blocked deliveries through its pipelines itself, in an attempt to get the EU onside and force Russia to come to terms. Sound familiar?

In the current crisis, as soon as gas shortages began to bite, Ukraine asked Poland for free coal. On the occasion of the 2009 energy battle, the EU blustered that the situation was "completely unacceptable." Sound familiar? Ever afterward, Russia was accused of "using energy as a weapon", although the alternative was to supply Ukraine with free gas for ever and soon while paying it transit fees for Russian gas exports to cross its lands. Now Ukraine wants the EU to help it pay its transit fees, while it has raised consumer gas prices 300% in an effort to show its EU friends that it is serious about reforms, please give us 17, no, make that $40 Billion. Whose fault is that? Russia's?

In the latest row, Russia sold gas to Ukraine for nearly $100.00 per 1000 Cubic meters less than the price it was asking in 2009. Russia extended the deadline for a decision, while it was the EU which took credit for brokering the deal whose terms were that Ukraine would prepay for its gas and pay its arrears. I'm damned if I can see how Russia is the villain in all that hot mess, but that's what the west – and Mark Adomanis – say. Tantamount to driving Kiev into bankruptcy, or something.

Should any of this have been a surprise? Not to anyone who can add and subtract. Back in August 2013 it was acknowledged in print, for anyone who could read as well as add and subtract, that more than 60% of Ukraine's exports go to the former Soviet market, with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan the most important. Ukraine yelled for western sanctions against Russia, and then begged for more sanctions to be levied against it to bring it to its knees. Ukraine was quick to blame the shooting-down of MH-17 on Moscow, although Russia stood to gain nothing by doing such a horrible thing and in fact suffered for it since it overcame European resistance to sanctions. Is anyone surprised that Russia shut its markets to Ukrainian goods? Would any country in the same situation have continued to buy from and assist a neighbouring country that daily asked for new challenges to prove its enmity? Remember the "Don't Give It To a Russian" campaign? How about "Why Ukrainians and Russians Can Never Be Brothers?" You are big, but we are grand? Fine. Grandeur yourself out of your problems.

Now, when Russia wants Kiev to stop murdering its own citizens in the east by firing heavy artillery into population centers, to pay for gas it consumes after having agreed to pay for it, when Russia wants the west to hold Kiev to long-established standards of international law, Russia is – according to Mark Adomanis, "ratcheting up the tension."

Kiev and its western "partners" are like a couple of drunk good ole boys at a fishing camp, egging each other on with ever-wilder stories until bullshit becomes reality. The west is making parody obsolete. It deserves to fail. And Ukraine's problems are entirely of its own making.

 

[pmaitra]

@Akim, I hope you read the article above. I can see why you are upset. Of course, you disagreed with me when I said Ukraine was stealing gas. There is a nice suggestion in the article. Russia is big, but you are grand? Fine. Grandeur yourself out of your problems.

 

[sorcerer]

@Gabriel92


West is still on Afghan weed though they have pulled out of it.

The European Union's military: yet another sign of impotence

You probably have heard of the European attempt to reacquire some relevance: the proposal to create a "European Union Army". In part, this is, as an attempt by the Europeans to show that they matter, that they can do something by themselves, that they are not completely US lackeys. This might also be a reaction to the crazy statements of General Philip Breedlove, the Commander of the U.S. European Command and the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) whose inflammatory comments even got him a full-length rebuttal in Der Spiegel (There are even rumors that the Europeans want Breedlove sacked). Whatever may be the case, the idea of some kind of European Army is hardly a new one – we already had the Franco-German Brigade and the Eurocorps. That is all very well, but only on paper. The reality is that nobody in Europe has any money to pay for the future EU army. But even worse is that even inside NATO the European contribution is almost negligible.

First, take a look at this graph showing the financial contribution made by each NATO member state in 2013:

Clearly, the US pays the lion share and, if we add it's European poodle (the UK), the "Anglo share" becomes even bigger. But that is not the full story. Let's take the next two (and pretty much only other) relevant countries, Germany and France. Not only is their financial contribution very small, their national armies are a total mess. Russia Insider has just posted an excellent survey of the condition of the German military, to which I would only add this article entitled "L'armée française n'a plus un rond et le moral à zéro" (The French military ain't got a penny and its morale is down to zero) which comes to similar conclusions about the French military.

What about the rest of NATO you might ask?

They are even a more pathetic joke than France and Germany. The only real military left over is Turkey's which will never agree to participate to such a force and which will probably not be invited anyway (there is a reason why the Europeans never let "then Muslims" inside the EU to begin with!). Then we are left with a few semi-decent air forces and navies, but with no real combined-arms capabilities. Finally, all of Europe has always depended on the USA for intelligence, in particular battlefield intelligence. So even these air forces and navies are, in reality, totally dependent on Uncle Sam.

Which leaves us with the Central European clowns like Poland or Lithuania. To see what they could realistically "contribute" you can just think of the Georgian military in 2008, which was fully trained and fully equipped by the very same folks who are now training and equipping the Central Europeans.

The reality is that nobody in Europe can afford anything besides hot air and that all the European militaries are good for is wholly unconvincing sabre-rattling as recently shown by Norway or NATO naval forces in the Black Sea (any vessel in the Black Sea is an easy target for the Russian military) And even though that will not frighten or "deter" a Russia which has no hostile intentions to begin with, it will contribute to the worsening of relations as shown by the recent Russian decision to dump all CFE activities.

This latest initiative, far from showing any kind of European awakening, is yet another proof of the utter lack of statesmanship on the part of the Eurocretins in power in Brussels and the EU capitals. A far more convincing display of power and dignity would be to dare to simply say "no" to something demanded by Uncle Sam.

But that, alas, ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

The Saker

The European Union’s military: yet another sign of impotence | The Vineyard of the Saker

 

[pmaitra]

@sorcerer, good graph about financial contributions to NATO. You forgot to mention that Poland and Baltika (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) provide cheap cannon fodder for NATO misadventures, even if they don't pay anything in cash. After all, they have a cheap supply of expendable men.

The contribution of Baltika is small. So small, that it fits in a bottle.

 

[sorcerer]

L'armée française n'a plus un rond et le moral à zéro

Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 5:00
Régis Soubrouillard
In its report on the state budget, the Court of Auditors reviews the financial difficulties faced by the Ministry of Defence: too much external operations unbudgeted and administrative burdens that affect morale. France, she still has the military means for its political ambitions? Holland will have to decide.

François Hollande who dream "world policeman" love send his little soldiers everywhere, but appropriately in its latest report on the budget of the State, the Court of Auditors reminded the president that make war at a cost. The recent threat - and unprecedented - collective resignation of the entire military staff, fearing further cuts lifted the veil on the state of exasperation that reigns in the barracks and even among the very top brass. In a letter sent on May 9 in Manuel Valls (and a copy sent to Michel Sapin), Jean-Yves Le Drian has also meant "its grave concern at the serious military consequences, industrial and social" of a stroke additional plane.



In its report on the state budget, the Court of Auditors detailing the reasons for the big lean times experienced by the French army. Unable to finance all expenditure, the ministry decided: a large part of the Ministry of Defence capital expenditure were canceled to be allocated to staff costs, but also and especially to the "opex" (the "external operations "including Mali and Central Africa):" As in previous years, the violations in for opex and payroll expenses were pledged by cancellations on investment funds, particularly those of the program 146 - Equipment forces: in total, on the perimeter of the mission, € 650 million in payments were canceled, more than 7% of appropriations (...). Gross cancellations represent a significant amount of nearly 1.8 billion euros. "


The French foreign operations have resulted in such unbudgeted additional costs in relation retention provided materials, ammunition and fuel (in the order of € 400 million) and for intelligence activities (+ 60 million euros).

The army has more military means for its political ambitions

For several years the external operations are also the subject of inadequate budgeting. Our leaders like to project the French forces in all theaters of operations but never anticipate the cost of these opex. The 2013 Finance Act included a provision of 630 million euros. Not enough to finance the only operation in Mali, the cost amounted to 647 million euros. Added to this operation, not provided in the CAR, and that's a check for 1,257 million it took to sign. An under-budgeting of nearly 100%!


The Court of Auditors noted that the opex spending should remain at a high level: "The operation in Mali Serval does not end in 2013 and 2500 men remain deployed in January 2014, the French presence is not to disappear shortly. Above all, the triggering transaction Sangaris (RCA) in early December 2013 should increase the price of opex spending in 2014. This operation was launched before the passing of the Finance Act 2014, it could have been the subject of budgeting ". What has, apparently, not been the case and has already announced the need for a future extension.


The finding of the commitment of France on overseas operations is also contradictory to the future law of military programming 2014-2019 "built on the assumption of a withdrawal of foreign theaters." We love typing in military spending, but never consider that it induces a decrease in French interventions capabilities. The assessment could also be even worse because the president Hollande remains inconsolable Obama's decision not to have followed in Syria. Our president himself was already ready to go as he said in his interview with Jean-Jacques Bourdin on BFM-TV.



This lack of anticipation of concern to the Court of Auditors' on the potential of the armies and the unsustainable nature of this fact, opex levels that are significantly higher than the forecast of 2014 and the following years. " To be clear, the French army simply can not afford the political ambitions . If Hollande wants to continue to send troops everywhere, he will have to give the money. This is the battle that is currently playing at the top of power between Valls and Le Drian and Holland will have to decide.

To keep the budget must sell Rafale ...


In this letter to Manuel Valls, Jean-Yves Le Drian also mentioned the "extremely tense exercise" of military planning law for the 2014-2019 period: the "efforts will be difficult to achieve in the near social context exasperation. " The Minister of Defense estimated at € 355 million effort to achieve this year. However, "the Defence can absorb a loss of credits in 2014, either on its payroll or on these operating funds," wrote the Minister, which refers to "the social acceptability threshold" and constraints in terms of renewal and modernization of equipment, "Removing a brick wall and it's all set that would collapse," warned the Minister.

It's also not the only difficulty of the new military planning law. In a big boost optimism, it was considered on the assumption of exporting the Rafale combat aircraft which no copy has been sold abroad. Signing the contract with the Indians who must cover 126 planes for $ 15 billion is still not confirmed although Dassault believes that the recent victory of the Hindu nationalist BJP Indian elections is a "good news" (sic). This is the planning law that depends on this hypothetical contract. A fragile but classical building in France: no military planning laws has never been fully implemented.

Military life is largely degraded as noted in the eighth report of the High evaluation of military life committee, published May 28 Faced with the failures of Louvois software that has been "devastating impact" on the morale (see box below), the climate is affected: "The prevailing feeling is that of a fairly general degradation," according the report, which recites malfunctions: soldiers must organize themselves to prepare for their package before leaving for overseas operations and complete the paperwork, stockouts in clothing, unheated rooms in winter, catastrophic state of sanitation, non-accessible computer networks, lack of family support, state barracks remains uninviting and the military which denounce the dehumanization of services. Morale and staff is low.




Louvois, balances a payment software expensive



Louvois is a payment software that one sometimes wonders if the choice of the name was not a prophetic value. Established in 2011, the computer system was supposed to simplify, streamline and especially down 6 euros each treatment of the balance of the French military. Not negligible in times of fiscal scarcity. Since then, the software keeps on "bugue" and multiplies processing errors, granting increases to some, often younger, unable to pay, other sanctioning a totally arbitrary manner when it did not completely forget the payment certain balances. "The mistakes of Louvois are responsible, according to the Ministry of Defence, an additional expenditure of € 160 million," wrote the Court of Auditors.

Financial mismanagement which requires 500 people are now working only for the treatment of balances to support the "crappy" software which must be added a hundred civilians recruited under "the reliability of Louvois." Tens of thousands of military families have had to suffer the program's failures which had "devastating effects" on the morale according to the High evaluation of military life committee. Errors "largely responsible" also "the significant increase in payroll armed while enrollment is down" and the amounts that "can not be recovered and will not compensate exactly cash advances granted to injured soldiers" According to the Court of Auditors.


Moreover, the Ministry of Defence says that even these data are questionable because "Louvois malfunction disrupted the clarity and traceability of payroll expenses." With Louvois, you can not see anything! The software should be abandoned in two years according to the Minister of Defence. A replacement already known that it will be complex, lengthy and expensive ....

L'armée française n'a plus un rond et le moral à zéro

 

[sorcerer]

@sorcerer, good graph about financial contributions to NATO. You forgot to mention that Poland and Baltika (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) provide cheap cannon fodder for NATO misadventures, even if they don't pay anything in cash. After all, they have a cheap supply of expendable men.

The contribution of Baltika is small. So small, that it fits in a bottle.

They are still posturing with the other clowns in the chart!

 

[sorcerer]

Made in Germany: Probably the Worst Army of NATO




Good news first: Minister Ursula von der Leyen promised to furnish all German military barracks with electricity.

And here comes bad news: German troops have already suffered considerable losses! No, you have not missed anything. The war, which the US desires, has not yet begun – it is still in the preparation stage.

Nonetheless, the Federal Armed Forces are so desolate as though the soldiers have just come back from the destructive battle. Facts and figures, reported by ARD last autumn:

Out of 254 battle and transport aircrafts 150 must remain on the ground.

- Out of 109 Eurofighter only 42 are ready for use.

- The situation with Tornado-Jet fighters is not much better: out of 89 only 38 can lift off.

- Air freighters 'Transall': out of 56 less than half can operate.

- Transport helicopter CH-53: The Federal Armed Forces possess 83 out of which only 16 are functional.

- Navy helicopter? Out of 43 only 7 can fly.

- Attack helicopter Tiger: 64 in stock, operational – 18.

- Armoured personnel carrier Boxer: 110, out of 180, are under repair.

As a few months have passed since the publication by ARD it might be that one or more helicopters can now fly but it could not change the whole picture: The German army is far from being able to provide the 'Quick Response Force' as required by NATO.

As for the new air vehicles, the situation is even more dismal: 'Die Welt' reported a week ago that the new air force cargo aircraft A400M, built by Airbus, has evidently 161 deficiencies, 8 of which are classified as 'permanent or temporary defects'. The loading dock can be loaded with only 3 tons instead of the required 4,5; problems arise at low temperatures at high altitudes, at low-altitude flight as well as at landing on unpaved runways.

And what about the electricity? Is it true that more than half of the German military barracks are not connected to the power grid? Yes, it is true since this was ultimately stated by the German newspaper 'Die Welt'. And who would doubt the credibility of German media?

Made in Germany: Probably the Worst Army of NATO - Russia Insider

 

[pmaitra]

Made in Germany: Probably the Worst Army of NATO

. . .

Made in Germany: Probably the Worst Army of NATO - Russia Insider

German engineering is good for civilian applications. When it comes to war, their machines' usefullness are always over-hyped.

Take for example PanzerKampfWagen IV. On paper, it is the best thing after sliced bread, but in real war, it turns out to be a lemon in front of the T-34. The Germans have never gotten over their obsession with over-engineering their stuff. Take for example the German drones, that are very expensive, and completely useless, as per this report entitled, "Somebody Is Jamming Those German Drones in East Ukraine."

 

[Gabriel92]

L'armée française n'a plus un rond et le moral à zéro

Thursday, May 29, 2014 at 5:00
Régis Soubrouillard
In its report on the state budget, the Court of Auditors reviews the financial difficulties faced by the Ministry of Defence: too much external operations unbudgeted and administrative burdens that affect morale. France, she still has the military means for its political ambitions? Holland will have to decide.

François Hollande who dream "world policeman" love send his little soldiers everywhere, but appropriately in its latest report on the budget of the State, the Court of Auditors reminded the president that make war at a cost. The recent threat - and unprecedented - collective resignation of the entire military staff, fearing further cuts lifted the veil on the state of exasperation that reigns in the barracks and even among the very top brass. In a letter sent on May 9 in Manuel Valls (and a copy sent to Michel Sapin), Jean-Yves Le Drian has also meant "its grave concern at the serious military consequences, industrial and social" of a stroke additional plane.



In its report on the state budget, the Court of Auditors detailing the reasons for the big lean times experienced by the French army. Unable to finance all expenditure, the ministry decided: a large part of the Ministry of Defence capital expenditure were canceled to be allocated to staff costs, but also and especially to the "opex" (the "external operations "including Mali and Central Africa):" As in previous years, the violations in for opex and payroll expenses were pledged by cancellations on investment funds, particularly those of the program 146 - Equipment forces: in total, on the perimeter of the mission, € 650 million in payments were canceled, more than 7% of appropriations (...). Gross cancellations represent a significant amount of nearly 1.8 billion euros. "


The French foreign operations have resulted in such unbudgeted additional costs in relation retention provided materials, ammunition and fuel (in the order of € 400 million) and for intelligence activities (+ 60 million euros).

The army has more military means for its political ambitions

For several years the external operations are also the subject of inadequate budgeting. Our leaders like to project the French forces in all theaters of operations but never anticipate the cost of these opex. The 2013 Finance Act included a provision of 630 million euros. Not enough to finance the only operation in Mali, the cost amounted to 647 million euros. Added to this operation, not provided in the CAR, and that's a check for 1,257 million it took to sign. An under-budgeting of nearly 100%!


The Court of Auditors noted that the opex spending should remain at a high level: "The operation in Mali Serval does not end in 2013 and 2500 men remain deployed in January 2014, the French presence is not to disappear shortly. Above all, the triggering transaction Sangaris (RCA) in early December 2013 should increase the price of opex spending in 2014. This operation was launched before the passing of the Finance Act 2014, it could have been the subject of budgeting ". What has, apparently, not been the case and has already announced the need for a future extension.


The finding of the commitment of France on overseas operations is also contradictory to the future law of military programming 2014-2019 "built on the assumption of a withdrawal of foreign theaters." We love typing in military spending, but never consider that it induces a decrease in French interventions capabilities. The assessment could also be even worse because the president Hollande remains inconsolable Obama's decision not to have followed in Syria. Our president himself was already ready to go as he said in his interview with Jean-Jacques Bourdin on BFM-TV.



This lack of anticipation of concern to the Court of Auditors' on the potential of the armies and the unsustainable nature of this fact, opex levels that are significantly higher than the forecast of 2014 and the following years. " To be clear, the French army simply can not afford the political ambitions . If Hollande wants to continue to send troops everywhere, he will have to give the money. This is the battle that is currently playing at the top of power between Valls and Le Drian and Holland will have to decide.

To keep the budget must sell Rafale ...


In this letter to Manuel Valls, Jean-Yves Le Drian also mentioned the "extremely tense exercise" of military planning law for the 2014-2019 period: the "efforts will be difficult to achieve in the near social context exasperation. " The Minister of Defense estimated at € 355 million effort to achieve this year. However, "the Defence can absorb a loss of credits in 2014, either on its payroll or on these operating funds," wrote the Minister, which refers to "the social acceptability threshold" and constraints in terms of renewal and modernization of equipment, "Removing a brick wall and it's all set that would collapse," warned the Minister.

It's also not the only difficulty of the new military planning law. In a big boost optimism, it was considered on the assumption of exporting the Rafale combat aircraft which no copy has been sold abroad. Signing the contract with the Indians who must cover 126 planes for $ 15 billion is still not confirmed although Dassault believes that the recent victory of the Hindu nationalist BJP Indian elections is a "good news" (sic). This is the planning law that depends on this hypothetical contract. A fragile but classical building in France: no military planning laws has never been fully implemented.

Military life is largely degraded as noted in the eighth report of the High evaluation of military life committee, published May 28 Faced with the failures of Louvois software that has been "devastating impact" on the morale (see box below), the climate is affected: "The prevailing feeling is that of a fairly general degradation," according the report, which recites malfunctions: soldiers must organize themselves to prepare for their package before leaving for overseas operations and complete the paperwork, stockouts in clothing, unheated rooms in winter, catastrophic state of sanitation, non-accessible computer networks, lack of family support, state barracks remains uninviting and the military which denounce the dehumanization of services. Morale and staff is low.




Louvois, balances a payment software expensive



Louvois is a payment software that one sometimes wonders if the choice of the name was not a prophetic value. Established in 2011, the computer system was supposed to simplify, streamline and especially down 6 euros each treatment of the balance of the French military. Not negligible in times of fiscal scarcity. Since then, the software keeps on "bugue" and multiplies processing errors, granting increases to some, often younger, unable to pay, other sanctioning a totally arbitrary manner when it did not completely forget the payment certain balances. "The mistakes of Louvois are responsible, according to the Ministry of Defence, an additional expenditure of € 160 million," wrote the Court of Auditors.

Financial mismanagement which requires 500 people are now working only for the treatment of balances to support the "crappy" software which must be added a hundred civilians recruited under "the reliability of Louvois." Tens of thousands of military families have had to suffer the program's failures which had "devastating effects" on the morale according to the High evaluation of military life committee. Errors "largely responsible" also "the significant increase in payroll armed while enrollment is down" and the amounts that "can not be recovered and will not compensate exactly cash advances granted to injured soldiers" According to the Court of Auditors.


Moreover, the Ministry of Defence says that even these data are questionable because "Louvois malfunction disrupted the clarity and traceability of payroll expenses." With Louvois, you can not see anything! The software should be abandoned in two years according to the Minister of Defence. A replacement already known that it will be complex, lengthy and expensive ....

L'armée française n'a plus un rond et le moral à zéro

The things seem to move,since the attacks on Charlie Hebdo and other threats,there will be an update of the " National Security Strategy" (in June),where they will give more means to the armies and stop the cuts on personels. (for exemple : More helicopters,more means for the intelligence services,special forces etc..).
The Louvois system (which was a total mistake) will be replaced by a system called "Source solde". (it was announced today.=)
-------------
There will never be an "european army",some are dreaming.

 

[Samar Rathi]

Russian tanker fighting in Donbas: "We are supposedly local militia". PHOTOproof

Russian army in Ukraine: Russian tanker fighting in Donbas: We are supposedly local militia. PHOTOproof - Russian Army, armament, Putin, Russia, tank, Ukraine, Russian Aggression Against Ukraine, Evidence of Russian aggression in Ukraine, Russian arm

I think they're low. Very low. Russian forces only get involved in a few key operations, and seem to arrive with what (for this conflict) is overwhelming force. In the case of Logvinovo it appears that a Tank Btln Tactical Group from the Russian 5th Tank Bde was used, with T-72B3 tanks for their standard equipment (the most modern and capable tanks in this conflict so far). Logvinovo was seized relatively quickly, no protracted fighting, and the Ukrainian counter-attacks were very watery. The eventual retreat corridor for Ukrainian forces seems to have bypassed Logvinovo entirely, and the fighting during their withdrawal seems to have been with primarily rebel troops.

Their participation in the destruction of Sector D (Ukrainian deployments along the border last summer) was primarily artillery and UAV. Probably entirely blood-less.

The battle of Ilovaysk is a major grey area. Two T-72B3 tanks were destroyed, and a BTR-82AM also was at the same time, but not in the same location. So during that time it appears that significant numbers of Russian troops got involved in heavy fighting. However the battle was extremely one-sided, ending in the destruction and slaughter of the Ukrainian troops trying to exit the pocket with their heavy equipment intact, even with two tanks down, the casualties would still not have been too high.

The big grey area is the Russian military personnel embedded with the rebels directly. Logistics for the rebels are run by the Russian military, but those don't participate in the fighting directly. Rebel air defense systems (the sophisticates ones like the Tors and Pantsyrs) are Russian-operated, but we have 1 very sketchy report of the loss of one Pantsyr (probably little more then braggery, as no photos, and no substantiating reports surfaced). The UkrAF has no real SEAD/DEAD capabilities, and has essentially stopped participating in this war due to high casualties and low effectiveness. Russian EW and ELINT assets are in play (potentially OsNaz GRU, though regular R.E.B. troops are also possible) but again casualties wouldn't be high, and would be hard to confirm.

My personal estimate (educated guess) is medium double digits (40-50-60ish) for Russian military dead. Not Russian military volunteers who leave their units and join rebel forces, but actual dedicated Russian military deployments.

It's nearly impossible to estimate how many Russian service members on special leave that go to fight for the rebels have died, because there's no way to trace their employment or deployment among rebel formations.

 

[jouni]

German engineering is good for civilian applications. When it comes to war, their machines' usefullness are always over-hyped.

Take for example PanzerKampfWagen IV. On paper, it is the best thing after sliced bread, but in real war, it turns out to be a lemon in front of the T-34. The Germans have never gotten over their obsession with over-engineering their stuff. Take for example the German drones, that are very expensive, and completely useless, as per this report entitled, "Somebody Is Jamming Those German Drones in East Ukraine."

It is not that bad, Finnish Sturm IIIs and Pzkw IVs destroyed for example in Tali-Ihantala battle 87 T-34s and ISs and Klims with own losses of four.

 

[pmaitra]

I think they're low. Very low. Russian forces only get involved in a few key operations, and seem to arrive with what (for this conflict) is overwhelming force. In the case of Logvinovo it appears that a Tank Btln Tactical Group from the Russian 5th Tank Bde was used, with T-72B3 tanks for their standard equipment (the most modern and capable tanks in this conflict so far). Logvinovo was seized relatively quickly, no protracted fighting, and the Ukrainian counter-attacks were very watery. The eventual retreat corridor for Ukrainian forces seems to have bypassed Logvinovo entirely, and the fighting during their withdrawal seems to have been with primarily rebel troops.

Their participation in the destruction of Sector D (Ukrainian deployments along the border last summer) was primarily artillery and UAV. Probably entirely blood-less.

The battle of Ilovaysk is a major grey area. Two T-72B3 tanks were destroyed, and a BTR-82AM also was at the same time, but not in the same location. So during that time it appears that significant numbers of Russian troops got involved in heavy fighting. However the battle was extremely one-sided, ending in the destruction and slaughter of the Ukrainian troops trying to exit the pocket with their heavy equipment intact, even with two tanks down, the casualties would still not have been too high.

The big grey area is the Russian military personnel embedded with the rebels directly. Logistics for the rebels are run by the Russian military, but those don't participate in the fighting directly. Rebel air defense systems (the sophisticates ones like the Tors and Pantsyrs) are Russian-operated, but we have 1 very sketchy report of the loss of one Pantsyr (probably little more then braggery, as no photos, and no substantiating reports surfaced). The UkrAF has no real SEAD/DEAD capabilities, and has essentially stopped participating in this war due to high casualties and low effectiveness. Russian EW and ELINT assets are in play (potentially OsNaz GRU, though regular R.E.B. troops are also possible) but again casualties wouldn't be high, and would be hard to confirm.

My personal estimate (educated guess) is medium double digits (40-50-60ish) for Russian military dead. Not Russian military volunteers who leave their units and join rebel forces, but actual dedicated Russian military deployments.

It's nearly impossible to estimate how many Russian service members on special leave that go to fight for the rebels have died, because there's no way to trace their employment or deployment among rebel formations.

Wow, man. That is a very convincing and informative post. Looks like you have been doing a lot of information gathering and filtering to come to a nice conclusion. It is very much possible that there were small detachments of Russian Military formations that came in, applied a hard punch, and left, leaving the NovoRossiyan militia to mop up the remnants of the Kiev regime's formations.

Thank you for a well thought out post.

 

[pmaitra]

It is not that bad, Finnish Sturm IIIs and Pzkw IVs destroyed for example in Tali-Ihantala battle 87 T-34s and ISs and Klims with own losses of four.

You could never underestimate the power of simplicity.

In peace time, a BMW/VW/Merc-Benz car beats a Lada/GAZ-Volga/Zaparozhets car.
In war time, a GAZ/MAZ/KamAZ/UralAZ/KrAZ/ZiL truck beats a MAN/Merc-Benz truck.

 

[jouni]

https://www.rusi.org/downloads/assets/201503_BP_Russian_Forces_in_Ukraine_FINAL.pdf

Russian formations in Eastern Ukraine battles.

 

[jouni]

You could never underestimate the power of simplicity.

In peace time, a BMW/VW/Merc-Benz car beats a Lada/GAZ-Volga/Zaparozhets car.
In war time, a GAZ/MAZ/KamAZ/UralAZ/KrAZ/ZiL truck beats a MAN/Merc-Benz truck.

Yes, in peace time those IVs were junk, we tried to use them as tractors with little success.Gun barrell was good in drying clothes though.

 

[pmaitra]

Yes, in peace time those IVs were junk, we tried to use them as tractors with little success.

No, they were junk in war time and in peace time. PanzerKampfWagen IV was, pardon my French, "all fart and no shit."

 

[Samar Rathi]

A law in Ukraine is in the works, allowing people to buy their way out of military service.

In Ukraine registered a draft law on the possibility of "pay off" from the army

Registered in Ukraine s akonoproekt the possibility of "pay off" from the army. People's deputy Semen Semenchenko registered bill on the possibility of soldiers to defer for a year with the introduction of "mobilization fee". He said this in his Facebook.

According Semenchenko, similar laws exist in Georgia and Turkey.

"This bill takes into account the age, income and location mobilized. Provides a mechanism for receiving the money earmarked for the rehabilitation motivated soldiers (volunteers). When the general mobilization postponement does not work "- he wrote.

Semenchenko noted that in early February, were held committee hearings on this issue into account the wishes of a number of public organizations, the Ministry of Defence. He emphasized that a very large number of proposals, comments, interesting thoughts came after reports of registration bill.

MP said that two weeks a group of accumulated changes to the bill, and it will become more responsible interests of the country and people, regardless of social status or wealth.

На Украине зарегистрировали законопроект о возможности «откупиться» от армии

If you are not rich in Ukraine than you are cannon fodder.

 

[Samar Rathi]

US intelligence reports that the rebels have plans to seize Mairupol.

US intelligence reports on the preparation of the plan the assault Mariupol

US intelligence chief James Clapper said the militias try to seize the spring of Mariupol.

James Clapper believes that the plans militia forces for control of the two regions of Ukraine, the creation of a land corridor to the Crimea and the capture of Mariupol. Active operations will begin in the spring.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper United States believes that the conflict in Ukraine is far from complete, and the next phase of active hostilities begin in the spring. He stated this on Thursday, February 26 hearing in the Armed Services Committee of the US Senate. According to Clapper, he supports the idea of Kiev provide modern weapons to support the Ukrainian Army in the fight against pro-Russian forces militia. But it was his "personal opinion". In the opinion of expert intelligence, weapons of Kiev "will cause a negative reaction from Putin and the Russian" and will lead to the fact that Moscow would send more weapons to the separatists, said the head of intelligence.
Разведка США докладывает о подготовке плана штурма Мариуполя

 

[Vlaad]

Those that are actively participating in this thread, such as @Razor, @sgarg, @AVERAGE INDIAN, @Ray Sir, @Akim, @jouni, @Cadian, @arpakola, @Vlaad, et al., here is a tabular representation of four possible scenarios taken from two possibilities that might be, but are assumed not mutually dependent, from this fine article by J. Hawk entitled "Ukraine: A Moment of Truth Approaches."

	Kiev Regime gets IMF loan	Kiev Regime gets NO IMF loan
Kiev Regime honours the Ceasefire	"This variant would indicate that the doves, both in the EU, US, and Ukraine, have prevailed. The "Ukraine project" is still on the agenda, but the interested parties are taking pains not to escalate the situation for fear of losing everything."	"That would be a sign that US and EU have written off the "Ukraine project" as both unprofitable and risky, and that Kiev has acquiesced in that decision. It would also mean that an improvement in the Russia-Ukraine relationship is just around the corner, including the final settlement of the status of the Crimea and the Donbass."
Kiev Regime resumes War	"This could either mean that Kiev broke faith with the EU (rather unlikely, considering how important that support is). It could also mean that the hardliners in the West have prevailed and have decided to finance and arm Ukraine for the sole purpose of weakening Russia. This would make it the advanced version of scenario 3, in that the Anglo-Saxon powers are now calling the shots and the influence of France, Germany, and pretty much every other EU/NATO member has been nullified."	"If we see this outcome, it would imply a rather major breach between the US and the EU or an attempt by the Anglo-Saxon EU/NATO members to establish their dominance over their respective institutions. EU leaders don't want to see Ukraine go to war. US leaders want to see EU pay for Ukraine. If the EU is unwilling to pay, the US/British/Kiev hawks might be tempted to use war to escalate the situation to such an extent that the more dovish French and German leaders have no choice but to jump on the bandwagon. If we see weapons and trainers go to Ukraine, it will mean a definite weakening of Merkel's and Hollande's position within both EU and NATO, as it does not seem likely the two will dare chart a policy independent of Washington and London. An alternative explanation of this scenario is that it's a variation on scenario number 1, except that Kiev does not want to acquiesce to it, and tries to escalate the situation in order to force the West to assist it."

So, let's put our thinking caps on, and speculate, which of the four scenarios will happen?

Way too far and complicated to speculate, Ukraine crisis is to stay for long haul. With above proposed situations, IMF is way way too random to predict anything never they are there basically to set the ground for pillaging via privatization and credits but even they have conditions...

It will not be used in military financing that would be my guess. But when I say more complicated, I mean in way that if we suppose that IMF financing will not be used for military, and IMHO situation is way too unstable for someone to openly deliver weapons to Ukraine. By unstable I mean public opinion in France, government playing peacekeepers Oland prolly knows that he cant hawk around, National Front (eurosceptics, who somehow manage to sound very logical) seems to a bit to popular for his comfort. Elections are iirc 2016 and as we no EU survival pretty much depends on few major players and if France falls out, it will be far too hard for US to project power and convey "Russian aggression mantra" for its own end.

When we take into account growing euroskeptics, proximity of possible conflict*, eurozone crysis and growing concern that bear-baiting in not particularly safe business while living in the same cage, imho, this will dial down for now.

Already gave my modest opinion only Ukraine will lose however this plays out...

*and lets be real on this fact Russia is not like any other opponent they merilesly bombed its retaliation will not be random condemnation and that's why we can only see yanks and their MOST loyal puppies (Poland comes to mind) itching for a fight. We all remember Georgia poking the bear...

 

[Samar Rathi]

'The mounting fear, anxiety, hopelessness "

Ukrainian society, it seems, is beginning to enter the stage poslemaydannogo hangover. Sociologists fix not only sharp, at times, an increase in crime, but also a radical change of public sentiment. More and more residents of the former USSR balances "do not expect anything good in the near future."

Ukrainian sociologists have described the changes in the society, a year after the events on the Maidan. Identified trends suggest conflicting results.


"The population is experiencing a growing sense of fear. This also applies to supporters of the regime, and, albeit hidden, opponents'

The index of social well-being has reached an incredibly low level and continues to deteriorate. Such a conclusion was the head of the Ukrainian Center for Sociological Research and Branding Group Eugene Kopatko. According to him, according to sociological data, the majority of the population is disappointed in the outcome of the revolution.
"From the point of view of the economy - not a single positive result from a policy perspective - extremely contradictory results ... About half of those surveyed do not expect anything good in the near future," - said in an interview Kopatko "Ukraina.Ru" .

Sociologists have found that if, in March last year, the level of personal safety were not satisfied with 44% of the population, in February of this year - 70%. "The negative dynamics suggests that the population is experiencing a growing sense of anxiety and fear for themselves and their loved ones. And this applies equally to those who are supporters of the regime, and to him, albeit hidden opponents, "- said Kopatko.

In addition, for the first time last year anxiety experienced 63% of Ukrainians, although in October last year the figure was 10% less.

"Dissatisfaction with life - more than 80%"
"In a society growing fear, frustration, anxiety, hopelessness against the background of non-traditional way of life. Of course, the negative trends are directly related to the results of the Maidan in 2014, "- said the expert.

The sociologist added that over the past year has changed dramatically the mood of the population. According Kopatko for 56% of the respondents' war - is the risk of the spread of the situation in the East to other regions of Ukraine. " "It is fear, uncertainty, - said the expert. - Now, fear and hope at the same level. Fear grew by ten percent compared to last year. Anxiety level rose more than 60% ... the first time in years, sociological observations dissatisfaction with life - more than 80%. "



According Kopatko sharp deterioration in the economic situation will lead to a sharp social tension. We add that, according to statistics of the Ministry of Trade and Economic Development in the second ten days of February, only 10 days in February (from 10 th to 20 th) in Ukraine, consumer prices of sugar rose by 20%, gasoline - by 18%. Compared with January 2014 in January 2015, consumer prices rose by 28.5%. For 2014 as a whole, inflation in Ukraine amounted to 24.9%, while the national currency has undergone a 150 percent devaluation.
Because of rising unemployment huge number of people are unable to provide for themselves and their families, said Kopatko.

We add that at the end of last month, the former ("domaydanny") Minister of income and charges of Ukraine Alexander Klimenko wrote on his page on Facebook , which, in his opinion, in the near future the country will inevitably expects an increase in unemployment "as a result of the actual collapse of individual industries, tied to imported components. " The acting head of the State Employment Service of Ukraine Yaroslav Kashuba, in turn, stated: unemployment in the country (for 2014 reached 9.4% of the population) could reach a record level in the past 15 years.

According Kopatko for the general population the current psychological state was the result of complex actions and trends: the economic crisis, dissatisfaction with the outcome of the revolution, political instability and military actions against the population by government troops.


"A large part of the population, maybe somewhere up to 50%, did not accept the revolution. But is forced to hide it. In the Southeast this figure reaches 80% of the population. Just in the current Ukrainian society other - non-governmental - view display is not accepted. But it is, "- says the sociologist.

Sociologists also interested in the answers to questions about the media. 20% believe that the situation with freedom of speech deteriorated. More than 40%, assessing the nature of supply Ukrainian media about the fighting in the east, claim that they are not fully and frankly reflect these events. "As we see, here is the same trend - the frustration, anxiety," - says Kopatko.

"Trunk" of the "zone of ATO"

In an interview with "Rusinform.net" Kopatko stated that, compared with 2012 in the country there was "explosive growth of crime - at times." "This is indicated by the people themselves. 12% of respondents believe the key issue rise in crime - said the sociologist. - This means that they or their acquaintances, friends faced with this. "

We note that recently the chief of the Kiev central board of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Alexander Tereshchuk acknowledged that the recent "double the number of crimes, particularly violent attacks." "In fact, all crimes are accompanied by the use of arms" - quoted police chief of the Ukrainian capital portal "Browser" . According to this edition, police statistics indicate the involvement of armed assaults on banks and shops, while the presence of criminals do not stop CCTV cameras.

In late February, the representative of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Igor Nikolenko said: "The information that the crime has doubled - this is the official information, in fact, crime is ten times higher, and criminal weapon was no longer doubled, and in the dozens, can be hundreds of times. " "But this information is passed over in silence" - quoted a representative of the Ministry of Interior TASS .


Eugene Kopatko predicts a further aggravation of the crime situation, because "the presence of a large number of the population of firearms and occurring Desacralisation power makes people extremely aggressive."

"We must not forget the proliferation of weapons across the territory of Ukraine from east to west. From the "zone ATO" people go with plenty of weapons. And the news that we see today indicate that the weapon begins to act "- the expert adds.

"There will be stronger hatred of Maidan"

Head of the Ukrainian Center for Eurasian Studies, a political analyst Vladimir Kornilov agree with the assessment of sociologists. He is convinced that people frustrated with the results of the revolution will continue to grow.

"In Ukraine, will be even worse. And, as the deterioration of living standards will increase and disappointment among those who had once been fascinated Maidan, - said Kornilov newspaper VIEW. - And even more will grow to hate Maidan in those who initially felt for him is not the most pleasant feeling. Social mood of citizens, of course, depend directly on the hryvnia exchange rate, wages and filling the shelves in stores. We see that the situation is getting worse every day and no hint of improvement is not expected. We all know and understand that there will be even worse. "

According to the Kornilov, now in Ukraine for criticizing the government is possible to obtain time and arrest. "As soon as you go out into the streets to criticize the government, you suddenly find yourself an" agent of Putin ", you suddenly find necessarily a grenade. It became commonplace for Ukraine. In such a climate of fear, intimidation and terror, people tend not to express their opinion. But when life becomes absolutely unbearable, no fear you can not drown out the people's opinion. Ukraine is now faced with a choice: which of authoritarian regimes to suppress this anarchy, crime and poverty to choose, "- he said.

"Small buntiki that arise here and there"

According to Kornilov, social worsening already evident, brewing discontent. "Small buntiki there something here and there. It is clear that they were brutally dispersed, as we have seen from the National Bank in Kiev. But this is only the first swallow. As soon as life becomes even more hopeless, people simply will have no choice but to go out and riot, "- says Kornilov. As an example, he cited the position of the British magazine The Economist, which is "like Maidan and does not like Russia, criticizes Putin for the Ukrainian events."

"Even the magazine predicted that this year the standard of living of Ukrainians will be a third less than it was at the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union - said the analyst. - Can you imagine how impoverished inhabitants of the country, if it is even worse than in the nineties. "

The past year has demonstrated that Kolomoisky and other oligarchs use armed freemen including its corporate raids, said Kornilov. "We are already seeing how these fighters are hired to solve petty tasks: to take an apartment, squeeze the car, small property - the source said. - When the gunmen enter into the taste, they are already and the oligarchs will not be needed for this. They have become accustomed to the fact that you can profit from looting, murder and robbery. Stop the shaft of violence can only strong state. Ukraine, unfortunately, for those who live there, such is not. "
-ВЗГЛЯД / «Нарастают страх, тревога, безысходность»

seems like a biased source but with few valid points.