Chinese will not be able to do that with force, they have not a war efficiently forever and no combat experience....they might get Taiwan with their economic bribery if they keep rising buying out Taiwanese leadership with US losing its relevance steadily. Japan won't stand by either.....
The point either way is that the US has no firm commitment or obligation to defend Taiwan from attack.
Agree with the point about China not having won a proper war with any country for centuries, I had made a post about that. Same thing though, could be said about the US too. Hell, don't even consider China vs USA, take China vs Russia, even then it doesn't look good for USA.
Yes, in a nuclear war the US can destroy Russia. Russia can also destroy the US in the same war. So that hardly counts as a point in favor of the US being "more powerful" than Russia.
The notion that a war between Russia and the US/NATO in Ukraine would be a stalemate is highly questionable. The reality is that the US has not fought a peer adversary since 1945. Many military experts don't believe the US has the capability to fight a conventional war against a peer adversary, having drained all its training and resources beating up Third World countries. Based on Russian strategic doctrine, the US won't be allowed to enter a conflict in Ukraine, because every means will be denied them.
Air fields and ports will be destroyed, and the Russian air defense systems will cover Ukraine and make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for US aircraft to operate in the theater. Certainly US cruise missiles fired from US Navy ships can eventually take out the air defense - if they are allowed to remain afloat - which they won't be. Russian aircraft and subs and even corvettes sailing in Russian rivers will sink every US ship within a 1,000 km.
The real problem is any attempt by the US or NATO to involve themselves in a Ukraine conflict with Russia will almost certainly end up going nuclear as the US faces a catastrophic defeat in conventional terms. And if it doesn't go nuclear, that catastrophic defeat will alter the security situation in Europe - and possibly elsewhere - for decades.
And all this stems from America's stubbornness to militarize Ukraine.
As for your last point, I think that is probably the biggest factor stopping China from militarily making a move on Taiwan. They do not want to risk the rearmament and a comeback of Imperial Japan.
Then again, they don't have to. Considering the present economic and political system set up in Taiwan, Taiwan will offer itself up on a platter to China in a matter of years, had made a post about this too.