Civil war in Ukraine

[Super Flanker]

Tomorrow is Emergency parliamentary session in Belarus.. The worst case scenario for US, is the merger of Russia and Belarus..

Time will tell what will happen, yes Russia might have Belarus in it's sphere of influence but Russia and Belarus getting merged? Not very sure about that, it seems Highly unlikely that something like that will happen.

 

[asianobserve]

Had seen a tweet that assuming a LNG compression ratio of 615, Europe would need 3 times the current LNG transport capacity to carry on with business as usual. Nordstream 1 alone carriew as much gas as Energy behemoth Qatar's entire LNG Exports.. Also, much of the LNG tankers, are on long term contracts to Japan, South Korea and China, and as such maybe only a part of this capacity would be diverted to Europe..
Conclusion: If Russia decides to use gas as weapon, expect a near term industrial collpase in Europe.. What gas europe has will only be used to keep people alive..

Right now Europe is subsisting on gas from various sources without Nordstrom 2. This is the demand that the US is trying to protect by looking for alternative sources should Putin stupidly decides to use gas as a weapon against its biggest client Europe.

 

[asianobserve]

600000 ukrainians emigrated out of Ukraine in a year.. even without a Russian invasion.
Median age of Ukraine is 42 and Afghanistan is around 18 or 19.
Rich western europe is within reach..
So, many would choose to make a dash to EU instead of fighting.. apart from Western Ukraine..

You're not very good at analysis.

The population of the USSR in 1986 was 286.7 million while the population of medieval Afghanistan then was a measly 11.62 million. That is a a ratio of roughly 25:1.

The population of Russia in 2021 on the other hand is only 146 million while Ukraine's population for the same year is 41.65 million. That is a ratio of only 3.5:1.

So if the barefoot Mujahadeens did not make a dash to wherever, don't expect a vastly better numbered, equipped and trained Ukrainians to make a dash somewhere in the face of Soviet wannabe.

 

[asianobserve]

Right now Europe is subsisting on gas from various sources without Nordstrom 2. This is the demand that the US is trying to protect by looking for alternative sources should Putin stupidly decides to use gas as a weapon against its biggest client Europe.

Check again. Nordstrom 2 is not yet operational.

 

[Flash12]

This is post is so outrageous that it is most likely part of Russian information warfare.

Most likely could be.

Yeah, the post of some kind of Ukrainian pro-Maidan moron is part of the Russian information war.

 

[asianobserve]

Yeah, the post of some kind of Ukrainian pro-Maidan moron is part of the Russian information war.

False flag. Why I'm not surprised. Russians are so predictable.

 

[Shashank Nayak]

You're not very good at analysis.

The population of the USSR in 1986 was 286.7 million while the population of medieval Afghanistan then was a measly 11.62 million. That is a a ratio of roughly 25:1.

The population of Russia in 2021 on the other hand is only 146 million while Ukraine's population for the same year is 41.65 million. That is a ratio of only 3.5:1.

So if the barefoot Mujahadeens did not make a dash to wherever, don't expect a vastly better numbered, equipped and trained Ukrainians to make a dash somewhere in the face of Soviet wannabe.

The remaining population under Ukrainian contol excluding Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea is a lot less than 40 million..
Also, Afghanistan was peripheral to Russian interests, and far away from Russian industrial heartland.. Unlike Ukraine, which is central to russian interests, and logistical lines are much shorter.. There will be not much of an insurgency east of the Dneiper if Russia launches a full scale invasion..
You need to take your head out of American as* and breathe some fresh air..

 

[Waanar]

You're not very good at analysis.

The population of the USSR in 1986 was 286.7 million while the population of medieval Afghanistan then was a measly 11.62 million. That is a a ratio of roughly 25:1.

The population of Russia in 2021 on the other hand is only 146 million while Ukraine's population for the same year is 41.65 million. That is a ratio of only 3.5:1.

So if the barefoot Mujahadeens did not make a dash to wherever, don't expect a vastly better numbered, equipped and trained Ukrainians to make a dash somewhere in the face of Soviet wannabe.

The barefoot mujahideen had the terrain and overstretched logistical line on their side.
Ukraine is tank country.
It's vast plains can easily be overrun and do not support a guerrilla's longevity.

Ukraine is better poised to make Russia leave but will they?
A lot depends on their morale. Time will tell if it's up to snuff.

 

[Flash12]

Russia has successfully brought Belarus to its own sphere of influence. Russia is aiming for creating buffer zones along its borders.

No, it was the West that successfully brought Belarus into the close embrace of Russia with an attempt at a color revolution in this country and sanctions (for which many thanks to the West from Russia ). President Lukashenko has previously successfully twirled his butt between the West and Russia.

 

[Jimih]

No, it was the West that successfully brought Belarus into the close embrace of Russia with an attempt at a color revolution in this country and sanctions (for which many thanks to the West from Russia ). President Lukashenko has previously successfully twirled his butt between the West and Russia.

Color Revolution will take place once Lukashenko steps down. The vested interests will try again and again.

 

[asianobserve]

The remaining population under Ukrainian contol excluding Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea is a lot less than 40 million..
Also, Afghanistan was peripheral to Russian interests, and far away from Russian industrial heartland.. Unlike Ukraine, which is central to russian interests, and logistical lines are much shorter.. There will be not much of an insurgency east of the Dneiper if Russia launches a full scale invasion..
You need to take your head out of American as* and breathe some fresh air..

Even if you take away Ukrainian rebels from the equation the population ratio of Ukraine to Russia is still far far higher than Afghanistan in the 1980s, not o mention that Ukrainians have better per capita income compared to Afghans.

But while Russia may consider to have greater interest in Ukraine than in Afghanistan, I doubt it matters to the defenders, the Ukrainians. For the Ukrainians it's WW2 all over again, a fight for their Motherland to the death.

 

[Super Flanker]

The remaining population under Ukrainian contol excluding Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea is a lot less than 40 million..
Also, Afghanistan was peripheral to Russian interests, and far away from Russian industrial heartland.. Unlike Ukraine, which is central to russian interests, and logistical lines are much shorter.. There will be not much of an insurgency east of the Dneiper if Russia launches a full scale invasion..
You need to take your head out of American as* and breathe some fresh air..

I don't what is the problem between this asianobserve guy and the Russians, he always Keeps bashing and cussing Russians.

 

[asianobserve]

The barefoot mujahideen had the terrain and overstretched logistical line on their side.
Ukraine is tank country.
It's vast plains can easily be overrun and do not support a guerrilla's longevity.

Ukraine is better poised to make Russia leave but will they?
A lot depends on their morale. Time will tell if it's up to snuff.

Ukraine's flat lands is also an ATGM country, its muddy fields a tank traps, and its cities a guerilla haven.

 

[Akim]

600000 ukrainians emigrated out of Ukraine in a year.. even without a Russian invasion.
Median age of Ukraine is 42 and Afghanistan is around 18 or 19.
Rich western europe is within reach..
So, many would choose to make a dash to EU instead of fighting.. apart from Western Ukraine..

What kind of war is there in India if it has the first place in terms of migration?

 

[asianobserve]

I don't what is the problem between this asianobserve guy and the Russians, he always Keeps bashing and cussing Russians.

I never liked the USSR and never liked its mini-me version, especially under Putin.

 

[Super Flanker]

I never liked he USSR and never liked its mini me version, especially under Putin.

I don't understand what the heck is your problem with the Russians and the USSR. You always hate them for some reason or the other.

 

[asianobserve]

Color Revolution will take place once Lukashenko steps down. The vested interests will try again and again.

Once Putin is old and senile his Soviet mini-me will simply implode. The West is playing the long game.

 

[asianobserve]

I don't understand what the heck is your problem with the Russians and the USSR. You always hate them for some reason or the other.

The USSR did not contribute anything significant to the World; the Russians are not helping World economy (just profiting from it and buying lots of yatchs); Putin is a bully and I hate bullies; Russia like the USSR is anti-democratic.

If you have a choice, would you migrate to Russia or the West (US, UK, Canada, France)?

 

[Waanar]

Ukraine's flat lands is also an ATGM country,

ATGMs nowadays usually fail at punching through modern tank armor.

its muddy fields a tank traps

Few military commanders will be stupid enough to not take weather into consideration.
These are actual living, breathing, thinking people we're talking about, not Sims NPCs.

and its cities a guerilla haven.

Which Russia has tremendous experience tackling, both historically (in Afghanistan where it was nigh impossible for mujahids to survive in cities) and in present times (Chechnya, Dagestan, Syria, Donbass).

 

[Super Flanker]

The USSR did not contribute anything significant to the World; the Russians are not helping World economy (just profiting from it and buying lots of yatchs); Putin is a bully and I hate bullies; Russia like the USSR is anti-democratic.

If you have a choice, would you migrate to Russia or the West (US, UK, Canada, France)?

Just because they practice a different form of idiology other than Democracy you will hate them? Lmao