China's Fast Growing Naval Might

[IndianHawk]

No, that is just my estimation based on:


1. Around 2050, the Chinese economy should be mature (or fully developed) according to original plan put out in 1980s. So, if American wants to prevent that by war, they should do that around 2040.

2. According to PLA's development plan, they need to reach 70% of USA navy + 100% of Japan & Korea & Australia navy/airforces before 2040 in order to have a chance.


So, my personal estimation is USA need to make a decision around 2040: either starts a war or give up her dominance in West Pacific.


Of course, if China’s economy follows Japan’s route, then the date will become much earlier because USA will become even stronger (Chinese will be under her leadership). Guess who is the next target.

What will a war achieve?? If it's not nuclear than it will only be small war at most. Could slow china down further for few more decades but in the end the sheer size of china makes sure that it will be ahead of USA. So either USA breaks china into multiple parts ( seems impossible given han unity and nukes) or it can try for stronger alliance to dominate china with Japan , Taiwan Europe and India .

War won't server American purpose other than war to safeguard Taiwan independence.

That's why USA wants alliance with India so that USA India and Western Europe plus japan could choke china economically while keeping balance militarily. And wait for china to become pacifist under ageing and declining population.

Now will this plan succeed is a different matter. But if USA will go alone against China it will only loose in long-term just like china is bound to loose to India in long run.

 

[asianobserve]

Dutarte is the worst of them all licking Chinese boots giving away islands just for getting loans he has to pay back.

And that's not all. He advertised himself and won on getting tough ahainst crimes especially drugs. But all he has done is turn our police force into a murder vigilanye group targetting the smallest of the drug pedflers while bigvChinese smugglers are protected and when get caught allowed to escape back to China. 80% of illegal drugs in the Philippines comes from China and Chinese smugglers!

We had the misfortune of having Marcos and Erap for President that resulted to the corruption of our government and economic hardships. But Duterte is the worst of them all!

 

[asianobserve]

Both kind, who beg money from chinks as well as yanks.

Why? US has better presence there than us.
We have always been played by double standards and don't have any kind of ally status or recognition except some sweet talk. There is no point letting someone have a free ride.

China wants to be master everywhere. I don't know if you've been sleeping all these time but China has been trying to strstdgically edge out or corner India in the Infian Ocean and South Asia. China is a bigger menace than Germany in WW1 or Ww2 because of Chinese population and ruthlessness. So more than ever, the major powers need to set aside their differences and unite to contain China.

Small countries will not matter in the. What will matter against China are the actions of its peers.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

China wants to be master everywhere. I don't know if you've been sleeping all these time but China has been trying to strstdgically edge out or corner India in the Infian Ocean and South Asia. China is a bigger menace than Germany in WW1 or Ww2 because of Chinese population and ruthlessness. So more than ever, the major powers need to set aside their differences and unite to contain China.

Small countries will not matter in the. What will matter against China are the actions of its peers.

Look no one is denying that China is biggest threat to national security India. That doesn't mean Indian establishment will lose mind & start to do things in panic without planning.

India is very clear about that it's not a part of Chinese camp. It's not part of any camp because it's not India but it's US who is confused and unable to judge whether to make India an ally or long term adversary.

That's why they keep throwing both favours & obstructions (mostly obstructions).

As there is nothing more than lip service, India too is keeping itself away from conflict.
India wouldn't want to be used as a policeman thrown under bus with US goals & face a hostile China in immediate neighbourhood when nothing comes in exchange of it.

India is next to China in population, will be ahead in next decade, improving in economic, tech and military sectors fast (it's rise is shadowed by head start China has) and is only country with a potential & trajectory to catch up with US & China and act as a net security provider. Set of actions reflect US doesn't like India getting up either. But it's only India and no other country (even US) whose rise can balance rise of China in a long span of time.


It's not that either India isn't trying to contain China. India is asserting itself in SE Asia, middle-east and Africa independently. Just not a part of US group.

 

[Assassin 2.0]

If China entered grey zone 100 times, we did double that, says Eastern Army Commander Lt Gen MM Naravane

NEW DELHI: The Indian Army conducted a massive rare exercise involving all its arms and services including tanks, artillery and helicopters, in Eastern Ladakh bordering China, for testing and improving its war-fighting capabilities.

Kashmir may not be ‘major topic’ during Modi-Xi meet: Chinese foreign ministry

If you are not strong Chinese will never take you seriously doesn't matter how many alliance you make. Chinese only push back when they feel enemy is strong enough. This is there mentality

CHENNAI: Tipped to host the proposed second edition of the India-China informal summit between PM Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, Mamallapuram has had historical defence and trade ties with China that are more than 1,700 years old.
The ancient port town, 50km south of Chennai, had a defence pact between Pallavas and the Chinese that was aimed at securing Chinese territory from Tibet. Mamallapuram also flourished as a massive business hub on the Bay of Bengal transforming into a gateway for exports and imports from China to Tamil Nadu for eight centuries till a 1,000 years back.

Chinese doesn't want a hostile india.

 

[hit&run]

Look no one is denying that China is biggest threat to national security India. That doesn't mean Indian establishment will lose mind & start to do things in panic without planning.

India is very clear about that it's not a part of Chinese camp. It's not part of any camp because it's not India but it's US who is confused and unable to judge whether to make India an ally or long term adversary.

That's why they keep throwing both favours & obstructions (mostly obstructions).

As there is nothing more than lip service, India too is keeping itself away from conflict.
India wouldn't want to be used as a policeman thrown under bus with US goals & face a hostile China in immediate neighbourhood when nothing comes in exchange of it.

India is next to China in population, will be ahead in next decade, improving in economic, tech and military sectors fast (it's rise is shadowed by head start China has) and is only country with a potential & trajectory to catch up with US & China and act as a net security provider. Set of actions reflect US doesn't like India getting up either. But it's only India and no other country (even US) whose rise can balance rise of China in a long span of time.


It's not that either India isn't trying to contain China. India is asserting itself in SE Asia, middle-east and Africa independently. Just not a part of US group.

Very good post.

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[asianobserve]

Look no one is denying that China is biggest threat to national security India. That doesn't mean Indian establishment will lose mind & start to do things in panic without planning.

India is very clear about that it's not a part of Chinese camp. It's not part of any camp because it's not India but it's US who is confused and unable to judge whether to make India an ally or long term adversary.

That's why they keep throwing both favours & obstructions (mostly obstructions).

As there is nothing more than lip service, India too is keeping itself away from conflict.
India wouldn't want to be used as a policeman thrown under bus with US goals & face a hostile China in immediate neighbourhood when nothing comes in exchange of it.

India is next to China in population, will be ahead in next decade, improving in economic, tech and military sectors fast (it's rise is shadowed by head start China has) and is only country with a potential & trajectory to catch up with US & China and act as a net security provider. Set of actions reflect US doesn't like India getting up either. But it's only India and no other country (even US) whose rise can balance rise of China in a long span of time.


It's not that either India isn't trying to contain China. India is asserting itself in SE Asia, middle-east and Africa independently. Just not a part of US group.

"Neither here nor there" is not a position. It's called fence setting and will not get you what you want.

 

[Assassin 2.0]

"Neither here nor there" is not a position. It's called fence setting and will not get you what you want.

This is called diplomacy....................

 

[AnantS]

"Neither here nor there" is not a position. It's called fence setting and will not get you what you want.

Nope, its called "Middle Path" - Many Indians have walked on it successfully since eons!

 

[IndianHawk]

"Neither here nor there" is not a position. It's called fence setting and will not get you what you want.

It is USA that is fence sitting. USA has announced tarrifs on India along with china. USA isn't ready to export f35 to India (offers obsolete f16) .

USA wants to mediate in Kashmir and provides porkistan with f16 and aim 120.

If USA wants alliance with India it needs to stop doing the above shit.

 

[asianobserve]

This is called diplomacy....................

Imagine if America just sit on the sidelines in WW2? You prioritize. Now China needs to be contained first and foremost if you want a more peaceful future in the Indian ocean or South Asia. You need to work with Japan and the West.

Russia is a lost cause. If Xi is Hitler and Tojo rolled into one then Putin is Benito.

 

[Assassin 2.0]

Imagine if America just sit on the sidelines in WW2? You prioritize. Now China needs to be contained first and foremost if you want a more peaceful future in the Indian ocean or South Asia. You need to work with Japan and the West.

Russia is a lost cause. If Xi is Hitler and Tojo rolled into one then Putin is Benito.

World is never peaceful still there are millions of people killed in different conflicts.

United States did not enter the war until the Japanese bombed the American fleet in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941.

They come when they were attacked not for some kind of fun.

It's a game of interest india had act east policies from 90s when Americans and Chinese were chilling together. It's in our interest to have a non colonial rule asia. India aims to become net security provider in indian ocean as our economy booms we will do more and more in that.

If our interest match with some other like minded countries we will work with them. Just like we invested in disputed Chinese Vietnam waters to dig in oil.

India has also established strong commercial, cultural and military ties with the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam and Cambodia.[4] India signed free trade agreements with Sri Lanka and Thailand and stepped up its military cooperation with them as well.

It will be either Chinese or india which have biggest influence on Asia . If countries don't get greedy they will find peace with peaceful india.

It's a fight for influence.

 

[asianobserve]

It is USA that is fence sitting. USA has announced tarrifs on India along with china. USA isn't ready to export f35 to India (offers obsolete f16) .

USA wants to mediate in Kashmir and provides porkistan with f16 and aim 120.

If USA wants alliance with India it needs to stop doing the above shit.

The economic front is one of the most important pillars of the alliance agsinst China. Here both Indis and the US needs to work more. But India must listen also to its biggest foreign client. It must ease on its tariffs on a lot of American goods.

Kasjmir is a side show that needs a political compromise. But US' support (if you can call it as such) for Pakistan is extremely transactional and stratdgic. For Americans, Pakistzn is a necessary evil due to Afghanistan and China (both of which India shares the same intetests as the US in that area).

So it's the Indian's that has to have a more nuanced view of international relations do as not to loose sight of the biggest and most concerning issue for it - China's aggressive rise and expansionism.

A lot of the anti-American views I see here are historical baggages from the Cold War. But the psst is the past. Remember, the most important yhing always is your long term national interest, which is the vontainment of China for peaceful future in India's neighborhood.

 

[asianobserve]

World is never peaceful still there are millions of people killed in different conflicts.

United States did not enter the war until the Japanese bombed the American fleet in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on December 7, 1941.

They come when they were attacked not for some kind of fun.

It's a game of interest india had act east policies from 90s when Americans and Chinese were chilling together. It's in our interest to have a non colonial rule asia. India aims to become net security provider in indian ocean as our economy booms we will do more and more in that.

If our interest match with some other like minded countries we will work with them. Just like we invested in disputed Chinese Vietnam waters to dig in oil.

India has also established strong commercial, cultural and military ties with the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam and Cambodia.[4] India signed free trade agreements with Sri Lanka and Thailand and stepped up its military cooperation with them as well.

It's a fight for influence.

Just imagine if the US stuck its foot early before Hitler was emboldened. But America in the 1930s was also trying to be holier than thou and playing safe.

 

[Assassin 2.0]

Just imagine if the US stuck its foot early before Hitler was emboldened. But America in the 1930s was also trying to be holier than thou and playing safe.

Just imagine what if there was no Hitler india would have been a under colonial rule just like many other nations?

In 1943 because of colonial rule of British man made famines killed more than 60.3 million indians. When million indian troops were fighting against Hitler.

History cannot be changed everything have a reason. Hitler was a idiot but there were many other evil empires just like it. He is pushed into much more bad image because he did the same thing in Europe which Europeans were doing in Asia.

History have no if and but.

 

[IndianHawk]

The economic front is one of the most important pillars of the alliance agsinst China. Here both Indis and the US needs to work more. But India must listen also to its biggest foreign client. It must ease on its tariffs on a lot of American goods.

Kasjmir is a side show that needs a political compromise. But US' support (if you can call it as such) for Pakistan is extremely transactional and stratdgic. For Americans, Pakistzn is a necessary evil due to Afghanistan and China (both of which India shares the same intetests as the US in that area).

So it's the Indian's that has to have a more nuanced view of international relations do as not to loose sight of the biggest and most concerning issue for it - China's aggressive rise and expansionism.

A lot of the anti-American views I see here are historical baggages from the Cold War. But the psst is the past. Remember, the most important yhing always is your long term national interest, which is the vontainment of China for peaceful future in India's neighborhood.

Kashmir is not a side show for India. By that argument south china sea is side show for India.
It's core Indian national interest to capture pok.

Regarding economics USA needs to follow your advice and not let puny Indian trade surplus in way of fight with china. USA must provide India greater market access with lower tarrif so that India can replace Chinese manufacturing .

If USA so shortsighted and blinded by little Indian surplus on trade then china has already won.

 

[asianobserve]

Just imagine what if there was no Hitler india would have been a under colonial rule just like many other nations?

In 1943 because of colonial rule of British man made famines killed more than 60.3 million indians. When million indian troops were fighting against Hitler.

History cannot be changed everything have a reason. Hitler was a idiot but there were many other evil empires just like it. He is pushed into much more bad image because he did the same thing in Europe which Europeans were doing in Asia.

History have no if and but.

It was the US and the British public (both Conservative and Labor parties were in favor of Indian indrpendence) and the USSR more than Hitler that pushed Britain to give India independence. Hitler simply provided the impetus.

But while UK and US granted India, Philippines and other countries indepence aftrr WW2, the Russia theough the USSR on the other expanded its imperialism in the Baltics and Eastern Uerope. What were once independent countries prior to WW2 became suddenly colonies of the USSR. And the irony is that India, who just hained indrpendence, nrver really questioned Russian/USSR's imperialism in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.

 

[Assassin 2.0]

It was the US and the British public (both Consetvative and Lzbor parties eete in gzbor of Indian indrpendence) more than Hitler that pushed Btitain to give India independence. Hitler simply provided the impetus.

But while UK and US granted India, Philippines and other countries indepence aftrr WW2, the Russia theough the USSR on the other expanded its imperialism in the Baltics and Eastern Uerope. What were once independent countries prior to WW2 became suddenly colonies of the USSR. And the irony is that India, who just hained indrpendence, nrver really questioned Russian/USSR's imperialism in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.

Yeah everything is so simple isn't they just thought let's leave india today btw why they didn't did it 70 years before? And why they did it when world war 2 was ended the reason is because British didn't had the power to maintain colonial rule with the rise of USSR separatist movements in india and they lacked the capital British took loans from US after world war 2 of 2 billion $ and By 1942-43, India was paying more than Britain towards the war, transforming its relationship with Britain from a debtor to a creditor - with Britain owing it a mind-boggling £1.3 billion by the end of the war. As the author notes, "The economic rationale of the Indian empire, if ever there was one, evaporated in the white heat of war."
They simply lacked the capabilities and they were not a global power.
New powers rised up like USSR and US nothing else. After world War 2 to till date they are just a regional power nothing else.

Cough cough i have elaborated well on previous pages to your American friend why india sided with USSR. But again we did because that was in our interest nothing else.

Let's leave past even if Americans and whole Europe gets anti india today and starts arming Pakistan we will change sides with any evil power to just protect our existence. After the fall of ussr. India had closest relationship with Russia for years india and US relationship is quite new it started from 2010 only.


In diplomatic world everything is counted on the basis of gains and loss.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

"Neither here nor there" is not a position. It's called fence setting and will not get you what you want.

We have decided what we want. As told before, it's not us but USA supplying free weapons to India's adversaries, is opposed to Indian nuclear program, watchlists for currency manipulation even after itself running a bloated economy and so on.

For USA, India should directly involve in Afghanistan and fight in South China to get nothing significant in return but to later get it's economy destroyed after taking down China so that US always remains most dominant geopolitical force.

There is no point.
First, India is a strategically autonomous country and deserves to be so because it's an exceptionally big country capable of matching anyone in its full efforts. It's not someone to be treated like NATO allies but should get an interdependent relationship like between Russia & China. Two decades later when PRC matches US in firepower, India will be left as third pole and net security provider IOR to neutralise Chinese might in world's busiest trade routes.

Second, no India isn't even treated anywhere close to even those NATO & key ally countries. It's just mired with sanctions with often getting it's economic & weapon developments sabotaged and then is expected to fight for USA in return of NOTHING.

And yeah, just like China did post Sino-Soviet split, India will still continue its trajectory upward without any alliance. Without any alliance, we have dragged our country from nothing to a mini hegemon bringing others on table.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

It was the US and the British public (both Conservative and Labor parties were in favor of Indian indrpendence) and the USSR more than Hitler that pushed Britain to give India independence. Hitler simply provided the impetus.

UK never wished to give independence to a nation from where its entire might used to come from. There were very high tensions & revolts in British Indian military and people. Indian communists had gained total public support were preparing for wars.

Managing the colony was far more difficult after WW2 moreover. US & USSR supported India on the principles of their own country (freedom and anti-imperialism). Initially, they both turned against India just after independence. US continued to be till 90s.

Indian nationalists and communists were allied to Nazi Germany & Imperial Japan and had their support to overthrow British regime.

But while UK and US granted India, Philippines and other countries indepence aftrr WW2,

UK didn't ever grant anything to India. It only drained money, manipulated history, stereotyped Indians, killed more Indians than Jews (and covered a lot of ugly crimes) and balkanized it in such a geography that there was not any hope for India to recover from it's economic stumbles, leave alone posing a threat to UK. This Kashmir quagmire and terrorist state of Pakistan is what UK has given to India. If India has any strategic, military or economic limitation, only British are to blame.

Only an idiot believes that India wouldn't have gained independence through revolts if UK didn't grant or any British soldier in India would have left alive by 400k fighters.

the Russia theough the USSR on the other expanded its imperialism in the Baltics and Eastern Uerope. What were once independent countries prior to WW2 became suddenly colonies of the USSR. And the irony is that India, who just hained indrpendence, nrver really questioned Russian/USSR's imperialism in the Baltics and Eastern Europe.

Most obviously when we were threatened of war after annexing our own territory from Portugal, pushed back by West with threats after neutralizing terrorists in 65 and were about get nuked by USA in 1971, we aren't going to badmouth a country who is backing us against them.
USSR actually helped to initiate military production and industrial installations too in India.