China's Fast Growing Naval Might

[Bhurki]

PLAN may not be a serious threat right now ,but post 2030 we are in for a big scare.The period of 2035-2050 is especially critical.China intends to match usn by 2035 and surpass it and become the global naval superpower by 2050.

Actually the most critical period will be before 2030. By 2030 IN will have capability to create stronghold in Indian ocean. However, before that, as projections show, Chinese SAG and related ships are going to match Indian navy's surface ships in quantity using their anti piracy missions.
Building at the rate of 4-5 destroyers each year, PLAN will have 60 destroyers by 2025 while IN will have about 12.

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

Actually the most critical period will be before 2030. By 2030 IN will have capability to create stronghold in Indian ocean. However, before that, as projections show, Chinese SAG and related ships are going to match Indian navy's surface ships in quantity using their anti piracy missions.
Building at the rate of 4-5 destroyers each year, PLAN will have 60 destroyers by 2025 while IN will have about 12.

They wont have enough carriers and experience in independent long range carrier ops,neither enough SSN to pose a serious threat in IOR before 2030s.

 

[Bhurki]

Type 075 35,000 ton LHD/A(?) has been painted. Launch expected within september

 

[Bhurki]

They wont have enough carriers and experience in independent long range carrier ops,neither enough SSN to pose a serious threat in IOR before 2030s.

I said SAG ( Surface action group ) not carrier or subs. Considering PLAN is adamant on duplicating USN force structure, i'm sure they might attempt to field their own SAG very soon.
A SAG with 1 055 and 3 052d will field more than 350 vls in the IOR. Approx 150 out of these will be strike length vls capable of LRCM and AShM.
They could attach a couple 054a with SJG 206 for antisub duties if they lack SSN experience.
Ships of USS Harry Truman CSG recently deployed as a SAG formation without their 'MOM'.

 

[no smoking]

Actually the most critical period will be before 2030. By 2030 IN will have capability to create stronghold in Indian ocean.

What makes you think that India doesn't have stronghold in India Ocean now? It is funny that Indian members here keep forgetting that India Ocean is sitting besides their country while China is 3000 km away from this ocean. It is stupid only considering IN for any battle within India Ocean. IN can count on IAF's support at anytime. It is more than enough to handle the whole Chinese navy fleet, not to mention that Chinese is busy confronting a far more superior enemy in their drive way - US navy.

However, before that, as projections show, Chinese SAG and related ships are going to match Indian navy's surface ships in quantity using their anti piracy missions.
Building at the rate of 4-5 destroyers each year, PLAN will have 60 destroyers by 2025 while IN will have about 12.

Don't be silly, until Chinese can find herself SAFE military bases close to Malacca strait, the logistic issue will kill any operation of a large fleet.

Opposing to what you believe, the period AFTER 2040 will put real challenge to India. Before that Chinese and Amercian will be locked in their conflict within West Pacific. Once they settle the dispute or war, they will come to India Ocean. At the time, neither side will lack military bases in the region.

 

[Bleh]

Chinese Navy exercise in Indian OceanView attachment 23254

What type of ship is that front one?

 

[Akula]

What type of ship is that front one?

Landing platform dock(LPD)-Type 071

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Opposing to what you believe, the period AFTER 2040 will put real challenge to India. Before that Chinese and Amercian will be locked in their conflict within West Pacific. Once they settle the dispute or war, they will come to India Ocean. At the time, neither side will lack military bases in the region.

How the timeline has been set to 2040?

 

[Bhurki]

What makes you think that India doesn't have stronghold in India Ocean now? It is funny that Indian members here keep forgetting that India Ocean is sitting besides their country while China is 3000 km away from this ocean. It is stupid only considering IN for any battle within India Ocean. IN can count on IAF's support at anytime. It is more than enough to handle the whole Chinese navy fleet, not to mention that Chinese is busy confronting a far more superior enemy in their drive way - US navy.

My assumption is based on the gap of numbers of ocean going fleet between PLAN and IN ships deployable constantly to IOR. This gap is certainly decreasing in the favour of PLAN due to their massive naval production.
Just a couple days ago, IN was keeping tabs on 7 PLAN ships in IOR including two counter piracy task forces exchanging hands ( proxy to expanding their footprint in IOR)
If they surge their presence in IOR unannounced, countering it will be quite a tough task as of now. However, with fleet modernisation that's going on, I think IN will have the edge in future.
Also they're not 3000 km from IOR. They have a military base in djibouti, support from bases like Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan and probably upcoming Kyaukpyu in Myanmar and although Bangladesh might not directly agree to replenish or supply then in war time due to India's pressure, even they can't deny China entry to PLAN ships to their ports in peace time on account of China economic leverage and military deals.

 

[no smoking]

How the timeline has been set to 2040?

No, that is just my estimation based on:


1. Around 2050, the Chinese economy should be mature (or fully developed) according to original plan put out in 1980s. So, if American wants to prevent that by war, they should do that around 2040.

2. According to PLA's development plan, they need to reach 70% of USA navy + 100% of Japan & Korea & Australia navy/airforces before 2040 in order to have a chance.


So, my personal estimation is USA need to make a decision around 2040: either starts a war or give up her dominance in West Pacific.


Of course, if China’s economy follows Japan’s route, then the date will become much earlier because USA will become even stronger (Chinese will be under her leadership). Guess who is the next target.

 

[Deathstar]

No, that is just my estimation based on:


1. Around 2050, the Chinese economy should be mature (or fully developed) according to original plan put out in 1980s. So, if American wants to prevent that by war, they should do that around 2040.

2. According to PLA's development plan, they need to reach 70% of USA navy + 100% of Japan & Korea & Australia navy/airforces before 2040 in order to have a chance.


So, my personal estimation is USA need to make a decision around 2040: either starts a war or give up her dominance in West Pacific.


Of course, if China’s economy follows Japan’s route, then the date will become much earlier because USA will become even stronger (Chinese will be under her leadership). Guess who is the next target.

***** Next Target : Republic of India. China is our hope actually

 

[asianobserve]

China is a very aggressive and domineering power. India needs to align itself seriously with the West, Japan, etc. to put some senses into China's head otherwise if China do not see a unified force they will simply be more aggressive in pushing the boundaries of up to where they can get away in terms of territorial grab leading to war. We are actually back to pre-WW1 situation.

 

[no smoking]

My assumption is based on the gap of numbers of ocean going fleet between PLAN and IN ships deployable constantly to IOR. This gap is certainly decreasing in the favour of PLAN due to their massive naval production.

Really? How is that?
How many ships does India have in IOR? Oh, yes, all of them!

Just a couple days ago, IN was keeping tabs on 7 PLAN ships in IOR including two counter piracy task forces exchanging hands ( proxy to expanding their footprint in IOR)

You put on a perfect example against yourselves. 2 task forces: one is coming and one is leaving. How many ships together? 7!

If they surge their presence in IOR unannounced, countering it will be quite a tough task as of now. However, with fleet modernisation that's going on, I think IN will have the edge in future.

As I pointed out again and again: in IOR, the number of PLAN ships deployed is never beyond 10, how many of IN ships? more than 100!

And you keep pretending that IAF doesn't exist.

Also they're not 3000 km from IOR. They have a military base in djibouti,

How many ships can this military base support? LESS than 10.

support from bases like Hambantota in Sri Lanka, Gwadar in Pakistan and probably upcoming Kyaukpyu in Myanmar and although Bangladesh might not directly agree to replenish or supply then in war time due to India's pressure, even they can't deny China entry to PLAN ships to their ports in peace time on account of China economic leverage and military deals.

Firstly, none of these are military bases, there is no permanent deployed PLA troops there;
Secondly, all these bases are within IAF attack circle. In other words, once the war starts, IAF can bomb any PLAN ship coming close to these ports.

 

[Deathstar]

Chinz is a very aggressive and domineering power. India needs to alogn itself seriously with the West, Japan, etc. to put some senses into China's head otherwise if China do not see a unified force they will simply be more aggressive in pushing the boundaries of up to where they can get away in terms of territorial grab leading to war. We are actually back to pre-WW1 situation.

China will start with South China sea and ASEAN nations , first of the already victims are Vietnam ans phillipines , while Vietnam is resisting , Phillipines is bowing to the Chinese pressure , soon each island will be taken over by the Chinese , currently their fishing trawlers are already causing a mayhem.
While for India , we are capable to defend our borders , we can certainly give a tough fight and bloody nose to the Chinese , its the poor SEA nations that will suffer the wrath of the Chinese dragon.

 

[asianobserve]

China will start with South China sea and ASEAN nations , first of the already victims are Vietnam ans phillipines , while Vietnam is resisting , Phillipines is bowing to the Chinese pressure , soon each island will be taken over by the Chinese , currently their fishing trawlers are already causing a mayhem.
While for India , we are capable to defend our borders , we can certainly give a tough fight and bloody nose to the Chinese , its the poor SEA nations that will suffer the wrath of the Chinese dragon.

I can tell you that the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of Filipinos are agianst China in the East Philippine Sea issue. Bit at tge same time the BAST MAJORITY of Filipinos are overwhelmingly pro-Duterte. It's like a lot of Filipinos are lobotomized. They cannot connect crazy Duterte to China.

Actually, I campaigned against crazy Duterte ptecisely because I know he is China's Manchurian candidate.

 

[Deathstar]

I can tell you that the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY of Filipinos are agianst China in the East Philippine Sea issue. Bit at tge same time the BAST MAJORITY of Filipinos are overwhelmingly pro-Duterte. It's like a lot of Filipinos are lobotomized. They cannot connect crazy Duterte to China.

Actually, I campaigned against crazy Duterte ptecisely because I know he is China's Manchurian candidate.

Seriously its necessary that SEA nations unite against China , unity is strength ,the chinese know it. Only hope is Vietnam untill Duterte is ruling Phillipines. I hope he changes his stance.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

1. Around 2050, the Chinese economy should be mature (or fully developed) according to original plan put out in 1980s. So, if American wants to prevent that by war, they should do that around 2040.

China will not much be less even in 2040. If US wants to do anything, it should do before 2030. After 2030, China will be capable of damaging USA to extent it would never recover.

2. According to PLA's development plan, they need to reach 70% of USA navy + 100% of Japan & Korea & Australia navy/airforces before 2040 in order to have a chance.

Same as above, it's not that PLAN will commission all those ships just a day before target. China is launching commissioning lot of ships of ships every decade.

Of course, if China’s economy follows Japan’s route, then the date will become much earlier because USA will become even stronger (Chinese will be under her leadership). Guess who is the next target.

We know that we will be taken down after you. That's why cheering up for ya. Go, keep fighting yanks till we reach in a position of challenging them.

 

[asianobserve]

Seriously its necessary that SEA nations unite against China , unity is strength ,the chinese know it. Only hope is Vietnam untill Duterte is ruling Phillipines. I hope he changes his stance.

SEA cannot be united against China for there are a lot of beggar-dictatorships that needs Chinese money both for tgeir own bank accounts and on the very least to keep their militaries happy (so as not to declare coups). But it rests on big powers like India and other big powers to orovide a united front.

 

[Armand2REP]

SEA cannot be united against China for there are a lot of beggar-dictatorships that needs Chinese money both for tgeir own bank accounts and on the very least to keep their militaries happy (so as not to declare coups). But it rests on big powers like India and other big powers to orovide a united front.

Dutarte is the worst of them all licking Chinese boots giving away islands just for getting loans he has to pay back.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

SEA cannot be united against China for there are a lot of beggar-dictatorships that needs Chinese money both for tgeir own bank accounts and on the very least to keep their militaries happy (so as not to declare coups).

Both kind, who beg money from chinks as well as yanks.

But it rests on big powers like India and other big powers to orovide a united front.

Why? US has better presence there than us.
We have always been played by double standards and don't have any kind of ally status or recognition except some sweet talk. There is no point letting someone have a free ride.