Can India do a Falklands war type campaign if PLAN takes over Andamans

[ace009]

I am looking forward to the Indian HQ coming up in AnN from 2012. That would be a regiment strong for now, with infantry, light arty and armor and helos, AFAIK. A permanent IAF base in car Nicobar is also forthcoming. Once those are in place, AnN will be lot more secure.

 

[sandeepdg]

And what missiles do you have? Brahmos III is far away from service, your ballistic missiles are not accurate enough to guarantee major damage to the defences unless going nuclear, but even then French troops are NBC protected. The best SAM IN has is SA-N-7 which are no better than our modernised SM-1s. Our ships come with Asters upgraded Standards and Crotale NGs and can operate very far away from air bases on the Subcontinent making coordinated air-strikes lazy at best. Our ships, subs and aircraft carry enough Exocets to swamp the defence and sink most of what will come before it. If anything of what the USN officer said about IN is true, it won't be combat ready if it did come down to it. Between the Horizons, SAMP-T batteries and Rafales guarding the islands, the amount of airpower required to defeat it would be tremendous. We do have datalinked AWACs so our situational awareness will be much better meaning a higher IAF loss rate.

The real question is if your ballistic missiles can take out the airbase, SRBMs are useless against Aster-30 and your land launchers are too far anyway. Are there enough MRMBs to pepper the area to get enough damage to shut it down? They were not made with precision strike in mind so I think not likely. IAF has to shut down the French Navy and Air Force if it is going to retake the island or any force will not be safe making the journey. SSNs will be lurking the waterways and they do have uplinks to extensive European observation SATs, not just Helios 2 constellation but all partner constellations which is on par with US assets. Targeting ships will be easy for us, not so easy for India as they don't even know what is going on off their coast now. Throw in some SCALP attacks to degrade India's tracking assets and we can leave a big black hole.

The biggest problem will be logistics, we can set up enough for a month in the initial convoy, but it would have to be resupplied every month. Lacking A400M would require conversion of Airbus freighters to make an air bridge and we would have to charter the Ro-Ros we have for emergency transport missions. Keeping a CSG on station for more than 6 months won't happen with only one CVN, so we would have to rely on the airbase and maybe make another as a back-up. Under the protection of land based air power the task force would have to keep vigilant patrol over the island(s) and all convoys would have to come far South out of wandering IAF patrols.

Now, if Indian forces can survive a couple hundred Exocets, several hundred Asters and land enough troops to dislodge several thousand Marines, it can take it no question. Otherwise it would have to try and patrol the vast expanse of the IOR trying to hunt for our resupply convoys and Air Bridge and try to starve us out. They would be so far South, India wouldn't be able to look out there for long. In the meantime, France would control all the major choke points of the world's sea lanes: Red Sea, Persian Gulf, The Cape and Straights of Malacca. Targeting Indian shipping from these locations could bring GoI to the negotiation table before repatriation is even attempted.

Well, it all comes down to when this happens ! If this was to happen say next year, then you got it right. IN won't be able to do much and just attack your convoys to deplete you of your supplies. Since as of today, IN is no match for the French Navy, you know that and so does the whole world.

If this was to happen 10 years later, say in 2021, well then that's a different ball game all together ! With estimated 2-3 carriers, 2-3 N-subs armed with the K-15 and the K-4 missile with a range of 3500 kms, substantial naval air arm, MRCAs which may be your own Rafales, FGFAs, the Agni-5, RTA we are developing with the Russians, Brahmos-3 & Barak-8 equipped destroyers and frigates, P-8I, carrier based AWACS and numerous land based AWACS, including IL-76 Phalcons and Embraer AWACS, our own ABM shield, the Shaurya cruise missiles aboard IN ships and IAF aircrafts, our own defense satellite, Gagan GPS equipped aircrafts and ships, it will be a nightmare for your navy !

 

[Armand2REP]

Well, it all comes down to when this happens ! If this was to happen say next year, then you got it right. IN won't be able to do much and just attack your convoys to deplete you of your supplies. Since as of today, IN is no match for the French Navy, you know that and so does the whole world.

If this was to happen 10 years later, say in 2021, well then that's a different ball game all together ! With estimated 2-3 carriers, 2-3 N-subs armed with the K-15 and the K-4 missile with a range of 3500 kms, substantial naval air arm, MRCAs which may be your own Rafales, FGFAs, the Agni-5, RTA we are developing with the Russians, Brahmos-3 & Barak-8 equipped destroyers and frigates, P-8I, carrier based AWACS and numerous land based AWACS, including IL-76 Phalcons and Embraer AWACS, our own ABM shield, the Shaurya cruise missiles aboard IN ships and IAF aircrafts, our own defense satellite, Gagan GPS equipped aircrafts and ships, it will be a nightmare for your navy !

Some of what you suggest is questionable by 2021, but you know the French Navy isn't standing still. We are building a dozen FREMM and FREDA warships along with half a dozen Barracuda SSNs that will carry hundreds of SCALP Naval and triple our Asters. Add a second carrier and upgraded Rafale's with AESA and Active Cancellation Spectra, it will be a force twice as capable as today. India has a better chance now before we modernise.

 

[ace009]

I am not sure the I is such a pushover in it's backyards Armand -

The French carrier battle group looks like this ..
One aircraft carrier (CDG, 38,000 tonnes)
one Rubis Class SSN
two anti-submarine destroyers (currently F67 or F70 class)
one or two anti-air destroyers (currently Cassard class destroyers, soon helped by Horizon class destroyers)
one frigate in forward patrol (usually a La Fayette class)
one supply ship

Here is the maximum surge force structure for the CDG (2011): 30-34 fixed wing & 4-5 helos
16-18x Rafale
14-16x Super Etendard
2-3x E-2C Hawkeye
2-3 Puma/Caracal
2 Dauphin

If you want to tell me that force structure ad the 14-16 Rafales can beat up IN and IAF combined in AnN, I must tell you I am NOT convinced.

As for the future, the ONLY vessel IN should be concerned about is the new nuclear powered french carrier, IMHO.

 

[Armand2REP]

Actually, Task Force Lafayette during Libya included:

1 - CVN
2 - AAW DDG
2 - ASW DDG
2-3 Light FFG
1-2 Mistral BPC
1-2 Rubis Amythest SSN

1 Air Mobil Group
3 CAG squadrons

When necessary we can surge that much power at once and a bit more. The SEM are being retired as soon as the last batch of Rafale F1 finish upgrading to F3, which is actually about finished now. Libya was using all our old aircraft to save fatigue on newer frames. We get the last inch out of a yard.

The full wartime CAG of CdG is:

24X Rafale F3
2-3 E-3F
6-10 surface strike and SAR helos

It is not a Nimitz carrier but it is does pack quite a punch with most of the same capabilities. Backed up by the SAM compliments of the task force and air power, destroying Task Force Lafayette is a job left to an enemy who can mount massive coordinated air strikes.

 

[natarajan]

Chinese have a listening station on the Great Coco Island. The Burmese have leased it to the Chinese.

Is the coco island which was donated by our great nehru? even katchatheevu donations,we have given chinese base here

 

[Kunal Biswas]

Developments:
http://defenceforumindia.com/indian-navy/25131-amphibious-training-exercise-habu-nag-2010-a.html

 

[sandeepdg]

Some of what you suggest is questionable by 2021, but you know the French Navy isn't standing still. We are building a dozen FREMM and FREDA warships along with half a dozen Barracuda SSNs that will carry hundreds of SCALP Naval and triple our Asters. Add a second carrier and upgraded Rafale's with AESA and Active Cancellation Spectra, it will be a force twice as capable as today. India has a better chance now before we modernise.

The FREMM and Freda frigates are great, our Shivalik class are the closest we can get to these, but not enough in terms of weapons we have, but still nearly 100 warships of different sizes will be added in the next decade or so, substantially improving our capabilities on sea. Plus 25 existing frigates and destroyers are armed or will be armed with the Brahmos missiles, which include the Talwar class, Shivalik class, Godavari and Brahmaputra class frigates, 3 Rajput class destroyers, and all the Delhi and Kolkata class destroyers. Plus all the Scorpenes and P75I subs can carry Brahmos and the Nirbhay cruise missile with a 1000 km range as when it becomes available over the next 3-4 years. When it does, the Nirbhay will supplement Brahmos on vessels capable of carrying it. Nirbhay is as good as the Scalp with similar range. Although, I agree that you will be fielding more Scalps on you vessels than we will be fielding Nirbhay on our vessels, but then it has multiple platforms for launch and will be used by the Army as well as the Airforce, obviously in much greater numbers. And yeah, the Exocet block 3 and the Aster can be easily matched by the Brahmos block-3 and the Barak-8 quite well. The P-8I will substantially bolster our ASW capabilities.

You will be inducting 3 Barracuda class subs by 2021, not all 6. French Barracuda class submarine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
But then, we will also be inducting 3 Arihant class subs and the Akula for our use by that time, which I am very sure of. But the icing on the cake will be if we can induct a decent number of FGFA by that time and are able to deploy the K-4 in our Arihant class subs.

 

[sandeepdg]

Is the coco island which was donated by our great nehru? even katchatheevu donations,we have given chinese base here

No. Coco Island has nothing to do with Nehru. They were the possession of East India company and was transferred to British Burma in 1882. It has since stayed with Burma as a crown colony, and after independence in 1948, they became a part of the Union of Burma. Hence they were never an Indian property.

 

[Armand2REP]

I found a nice cutaway of the Type 071. It is a bit smaller than I thought it was...



Where are the crew quarters?

 

[Drsomnath999]

bullS*** thread ,andamans & malaca straits are india's iron curtains for china in regard to india ocean.

 

[Armand2REP]

2 infantry battalions, 4 warships and no combat aircraft... not much iron there.

 

[SPIEZ]

@Armand2REP : you forgot about the brahmos, air-launched kh 59 (300km) missiles. I dont think any Ballistic missile like AGNI series or PRITHVI will be used. Think they are specially(although they can carry other warheads) for 2nd strike

 

[Armand2REP]

How many active ships carry Brahmos right now?

 

[SPIEZ]

CLASSIFIED INFORMATION \m/

wait I ll get you that info

 

[SPIEZ]

TALWAR CLASS, SHIVALIK CLASS KOLKATA CLASS and some other destroyers. Besides few otherships might also e upgraded to fire this

 

[ace009]

bullS*** thread ,andamans & malaca straits are india's iron curtains for china in regard to india ocean.

Hmmm - iron curtain you say?

China has bought up 4 aircraft carriers - 3 from the Russians and 1 from Australia.
They are building up the Varyag and using the other three for construction help and naval training. By 2015 they will start sea testing their first indegenous conventional carrier (65000 tonnes) and by 2020 their nuke-powered carrier (95000 tonnes). The conventional carrier will carry upto 40 aircraft and the nuclear powered carrier will carry 80 aircraft. Together with the Varyag (35+ aircraft), that will be a total of 150+ combat aircraft in their CBG.
In 2020, the time this was discussed for, PLAN might attack An&N with a CBG of that size, what do you think the iron curtain will look like?

Rhetoric is nice, but underestimating the enemy and overplaying our strength is surely looking for a kick in the nuts if not more.

An&N has been neglected for a long time. Both in terms of military strategy as well as a natural resource - it should be developed in the lines of Hawaii - tourist spots and naval bases. The country will benefit from their development, rather than from empty rhetoric like it is our "iron curtain".

 

[Armand2REP]

TALWAR CLASS, SHIVALIK CLASS KOLKATA CLASS and some other destroyers. Besides few otherships might also e upgraded to fire this

3 Talwars, yet to be installed on Shivalik and no other destoyers yet. At best you could get two Talwars to the battle, you think 16 missiles will be enough against PLAN? They have significantly increased their AAW.

 

[Drsomnath999]

2 infantry battalions, 4 warships and no combat aircraft... not much iron there.

Excuse me i am talking of indian navy not of srilankan or myammar navy ..1st read about Indian navy & then post such craps .

 

[Galaxy]

3 Talwars, yet to be installed on Shivalik and no other destoyers yet. At best you could get two Talwars to the battle, you think 16 missiles will be enough against PLAN? They have significantly increased their AAW.

Who told you we have only 16 missiles to take PLAN ?

We have 100's of Missile. Missile can be launched from Island also.

1 of them is Brahmos @ Mach speed 2.8, 300 Km range. That will be deadly to take Chinese warships. In addition, we have/will have many more things on Island. 1 Squadron of MKI from WB near Kolkatta by 2014 will be dedicated specially to cover A&N Island.