Can India do a Falklands war type campaign if PLAN takes over Andamans

[Suryakiran]

The distance between Great Nicobar island and Andaman is about 500 kms. Adding that to the distances you have already mentioned (1200 + 500) means that MKIs with ~3000 km ferry range, cannot reach Great Nicobar from the mainland AND do much good. Maybe with air launched Brahmos or Nirbhay they can do some strikes.
If PLAN gets a beachhead in Great Nicobar, I am not sure the tri-services would like to keep the MKI like advance jets in the Car Nicobar air-base, since it is too close to the PLAN beach head. Maybe LCAs or Mig 21 Bisons. The airbases near Port Blair might be the only one usable for the MKI.
Also, remember that if the PLAN gets a toehold in the Great Nicobar islands, the first thing they deploy will be SAM and anti-Aircraft batteries to deter IAF or IN air strikes.
The sea supply lines from Burma maybe the weakest link, but even those will be heavily guarded by fighters from the Chinese mainland flying over Burma.
Also, the Chinese have built TWO ports in Burma - Moulmein and Dawei (Tavoy) and they are building a rail link from China to Dawei (links below). Dawei is only 550 miles (~800 kms) from Great Nicobar island and can be used to supply a landing force there. Also, PLAAF fighters based in Dawei can easily reach and provide air cover to supply convoys and air defense to landing parties in the Great Nicobar area.

As for all the claims of "India can bomb the shit out of any PLA misadventure in the Andamans - that is the precise reason of this post - to figure out if it is really true, if IA/ IAF/ IN have the necessary infrastructure and if they are preparing for something like this. Also, I never said anything about Andamans, I doubt the PRC would like to invade that far north. But Great Nicobar is the southern-most island, right in the mouth of the Malacca straits and is 500 kms from Port Blair. It has a minimal garrison, no military air field (a small air field however, which can be modified by a landing force to land military planes).
Also, the nearest air base is in Car Nicobar, which in itself is not well defended. So, before the members blow this thread off, I would again appeal to you to see what PLAN/ PLAAF can do and what India needs to do to counter it.
Also remember, this is set for 2020, when IN and PLAN both will have a couple of aircraft carriers.

Asia Times Online :: War trumps investment in Myanmar
Myanmar, China agree to build rail link to seaport - Yahoo! Finance

As for Burma staying neutral, soon, it is expected that Burma will have a power struggle between two factions of the Burmese Junta. India supporting the wrong side (or NOT at all supporting the winning side) may change the Burmese position. Also, PRC is investing in Burma more and more and taking a stranglehold of Burmese foreign trade and international relations (remember, China ALWAYS supports the Junta, India does it SOMETIMES). So, given a choice between PRC and India, Burma may well decide to side with PRC in the future. In international politics, NOTHING is certain - so stating that "Burma will NEVER go with China" is meaningless.
Next, Bombing Burma indiscriminately if it sides with PRC may or may not be feasible, far less a good idea. At that point, India might be at war in two fronts already (Pakistan in the west and China in the North east). Then there would be PLAN in Great Nicobar. Opening a new front with Burma (through the Jungles in the North East) may not be the best idea. India may punish the Burmese LATER, after the war is over, but not right then. So, assume that the actions in the Bay of Bengal area will be more towards taking back Great Nicobar than in punishing Burma.

Oh bhai... Great Nicobar island and Andaman is about 500 kms, yes but you cannot add that 500 km to the already mentioned 1300km distance. An aircraft take off from some air base in southern part of India needs to travel almost same distanct to Great Nicobar island and Andaman.

Why do you think that MKI's will be moved out instead of trying to attack the invading force in case Chinese managed to land in the island?

We have another air base at Car nicobar which is getting developed as a full fledged airbase. Why do you think that a functioning ( after few years) airbase will not be fully defended? And, you forget about our aircraft carriers.

Yes, China will move in their invading forces with air cover, but IN / IAF will sit idle because they got some air cover. They will take counter measures for sure irrespctive of their air-cover and SAM's.
I have a question. Which is the nearest Chinese airbase from which China can provide air cover to the invading forces?

PLAN is not USN. It will take a lot preparations for PLAN (atleast, for the next few years) to land a strong invading forces and that will not go unnoticed by Indian security establishments. India can take enough security measures to safeguard the island from any such invading forces.

And, we are not going to attack Burma. But, we cannot sit idle if Burma allow all kind of support to attack us. We cannot sit idle even after knowing that logistical support are coming through Burma for an invasion on our land. We should act. Shouldn't we?

The distanct from China and even from Burma to A&N is not so small that an invading force with all the supporting vessels cannot sneak into that region without getting unnoticed. (India is developing Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System, which will be launched in 2011, needless to say they will be primarily used for military use).

One more thing we may take into account (I assume) US will be very much happy to see China to loose in any possible scenario and they may help us with atlease information.

 

[Suryakiran]

I still don't know what use the island would serve wasting resources in trying to get an island where they will only be sitting ducks.

They may be trying to nutralize any potential threat to their supply lines in the Malacca straight from the A&N islands. Of course, looking at the present situation, IN looks better place in this region to defend A&N islands from an invading PLAN.

 

[ace009]

Oh bhai... Great Nicobar island and Andaman is about 500 kms, yes but you cannot add that 500 km to the already mentioned 1300km distance. An aircraft take off from some air base in southern part of India needs to travel almost same distanct to Great Nicobar island and Andaman.

Why do you think that MKI's will be moved out instead of trying to attack the invading force in case Chinese managed to land in the island?

We have another air base at Car nicobar which is getting developed as a full fledged airbase. Why do you think that a functioning ( after few years) airbase will not be fully defended? And, you forget about our aircraft carriers.

Yes, China will move in their invading forces with air cover, but IN / IAF will sit idle because they got some air cover. They will take counter measures for sure irrespctive of their air-cover and SAM's.
I have a question. Which is the nearest Chinese airbase from which China can provide air cover to the invading forces?

PLAN is not USN. It will take a lot preparations for PLAN (atleast, for the next few years) to land a strong invading forces and that will not go unnoticed by Indian security establishments. India can take enough security measures to safeguard the island from any such invading forces.

And, we are not going to attack Burma. But, we cannot sit idle if Burma allow all kind of support to attack us. We cannot sit idle even after knowing that logistical support are coming through Burma for an invasion on our land. We should act. Shouldn't we?

The distanct from China and even from Burma to A&N is not so small that an invading force with all the supporting vessels cannot sneak into that region without getting unnoticed. (India is developing Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System, which will be launched in 2011, needless to say they will be primarily used for military use).

One more thing we may take into account (I assume) US will be very much happy to see China to loose in any possible scenario and they may help us with atlease information.

I assume you know the meaning of the phrase "devils advocate" - in this thread I am that. Which means - "what if ..."

Anyway, back to your points - The airbase at Car Nicobar is still not ready- although it was proposed as far back as 2001, when the AnN command was being setup. Who knows when it will be ready. Also, just because there is an airstrip, does not mean IAF will keep combat aircraft there. Having combat aircraft means added security measures and lots of expenses.
The distance between the mainland and the Great Nicobar island is > 1500 kms - try it out on a map.
If Burma is being used as a military base for PRC, thinkgs would be much further along than India having to do something about it.
PRC can indeed "sneak-in" forces for an initial "toe-hold" attack - read about it first what I proposed. Later forces will not be able to hide, but that is not the point.
I am not sure what USA will do, but indeed they might provide info.

 

[no smoking]

They may be trying to nutralize any potential threat to their supply lines in the Malacca straight from the A&N islands. Of course, looking at the present situation, IN looks better place in this region to defend A&N islands from an invading PLAN.

We don't need to lift a finger for this. If IN tries to block the supply lines in IOR, US navy will step in to protect the international free sail.

 

[ace009]

We don't need to lift a finger for this. If IN tries to block the supply lines in IOR, US navy will step in to protect the international free sail.

It depends upon what the Indian intentions are - whether it is to block ALL traffic (in which case USN will definitely intervene), I doubt that can ever happen. However, if India tries to run a selective naval blockade against ships from a few specific countries (read Pakistan, China etc) during wartime, I doubt the USN will intervene at all.

 

[Suryakiran]

We don't need to lift a finger for this. If IN tries to block the supply lines in IOR, US navy will step in to protect the international free sail.

If India tries to block the supply lines of China and ships of selected countries like Pakistan and NK, USN is not going to object it and they may even help us to do that because it is against China, not against the entire world trade. I'am sure India will not try to block the ships of other nations which will anger them.


And also if IN and USN is standing in the IOR shipping lines in between the supply lines from other countries and China, just think what can they do. I think that definitely will not be good for China. China should be more worried than feeling relived.What do you think?

 

[Suryakiran]

I assume you know the meaning of the phrase "devils advocate" - in this thread I am that. Which means - "what if ..."

Anyway, back to your points - The airbase at Car Nicobar is still not ready- although it was proposed as far back as 2001, when the AnN command was being setup. Who knows when it will be ready. Also, just because there is an airstrip, does not mean IAF will keep combat aircraft there. Having combat aircraft means added security measures and lots of expenses.
The distance between the mainland and the Great Nicobar island is > 1500 kms - try it out on a map.
If Burma is being used as a military base for PRC, thinkgs would be much further along than India having to do something about it.
PRC can indeed "sneak-in" forces for an initial "toe-hold" attack - read about it first what I proposed. Later forces will not be able to hide, but that is not the point.
I am not sure what USA will do, but indeed they might provide info.

Yes Sir, i totally understand your "what-if" point of view. You are providing a what-if scenario and i'am trying to provide a solution for that scenario which I can think off. There is nothing personal.
I'am not able to find any result for the distance between mainland and Great nicobar. So, I neither agree with you nor disagree with you.
I totally agreed that India is yet to develop a major airbase in Car Nicobar. But, I hope by the time China has the capability to sent a invading force to A&N islands, India also will have the capability to defend it.

I happened to read the news that the Car nicobad air-base is ready. Not sure whether to believe what you say or what the news paper says. You can give us some more idea about this.
IAF's Car Nicobar base battle-ready - Times Of India

In Car Nicobar, a fighter base rises from the tsunami debris

These links says that we have an airbase there which means it is not just an air strip and fighter aircraft should have been placed there.

 

[nimo_cn]

If India tries to block the supply lines of China and ships of selected countries like Pakistan and NK, USN is not going to object it and they may even help us to do that because it is against China, not against the entire world trade. I'am sure India will not try to block the ships of other nations which will anger them.


And also if IN and USN is standing in the IOR shipping lines in between the supply lines from other countries and China, just think what can they do. I think that definitely will not be good for China. China should be more worried than feeling relived.What do you think?

Learn something about the shipping industry, you won't be able to block the selected countries. Ships with flags of other countries are very likely carrying oil for China, are you going to block all of them?

 

[sandeepdg]

Blocking shipping lines is easier said than done ! The Egyptians blocked the Suez Canal during the Arab-Israeli war and it was a total blockage for international shipping. In the shipping industry, no one can determine which ship is carrying cargo for which country, since most ship prefer to fly "flags on convenience" as is known in the shipping business.

 

[proud_hindustani]

let them attack...we will chop off their balls, make masaledaar manchurian and send it to Hu Chintao

 

[ace009]

With todays globally connected economy and internet based transactions, most of the information about a ship and what cargo it carries is either publicly available or can be found out by intelligence. One of the ways the navies and customs of the countries try to curb piracy, terrorism and smuggling.
Just because you and I cannot find the information does not mean that it is not available to the intelligence community.
Especially if these are cargo containers/ tankers going from one major port to another.

 

[debasree]

And Napoleon defeated every corner of Germany and most of Europe... history is the past. Mistral in peaceful stance can sneak up and launch a battalion before you even know it is on the island. Bang bang and it is over in an hour. Any ship in range of Mistral would be sunk by Rafales in a matter of minutes.

napolean ? as he fled away from the door step of mosco ,sorry but u r not so strong as u think of yourself ,actually u r nobody without nato ,may be u can intemedate small african nation with urs millitary but india is in different league all together.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Blocking shipping lines is easier said than done ! The Egyptians blocked the Suez Canal during the Arab-Israeli war and it was a total blockage for international shipping. In the shipping industry, no one can determine which ship is carrying cargo for which country, since most ship prefer to fly "flags on convenience" as is known in the shipping business.

Any ships using the area to get thru should know there is a blockade there and risk getting sunk. Ignorance is not an excuse in a court of law or war. Similar to commercial airliners having to change their routes over conflict zones.

 

[lord]

Question should be whether china can do such an operation
1.. china cant operate so deep in international waters.. its only recently that they have used an aircraft carrier.. and it take decades to develop strategies to learn to use them.. it cant be taught in some academy or learned from friendly countries[even which they dont have]

2..suppose it captures then we have a strong population support there and decades of planning and exercising such scenarios.. also indian navy is more capable than chinese navy [they are just bigger].. navy has experience of 1.. karachi 2.. srilankan campaign 3..savind maldives 1988 Maldives coup d'état - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[sandeepdg]

Any ships using the area to get thru should know there is a blockade there and risk getting sunk. Ignorance is not an excuse in a court of law or war. Similar to commercial airliners having to change their routes over conflict zones.

Yeah, I know that. All maritime sources are well informed about such an eventuality whenever such an incidence occurs, but what I am saying is whole of East Asia's energy and trade supplies pass through IOA, so it will be easier said than done if we decide to put a blockade since no East Asian nation would like to suffer because of our actions as it will hurt them tremendously with regards to the financial aspect.

 

[sesha_maruthi27]

Indian Navy shall take all aspects into consideration, if at all they consider a blockade. But country's safety and sovereignty is more important that other factors.

 

[Godless-Kafir]

Can we even take out Burma if things get though? Could we start a thread on that issue?

 

[Phenom]

By take out, do you mean attack their ports or to occupy them, while we may do the first, the second is pretty difficult. Although Burma does have some strong rebel forces, it would not be easy to defeat the Burmese army on the ground, especially considering our infrastructure in the North East.

 

[ace009]

Guys, can we discuss the AnN scenario here and start another thread for Burma related scenario?

 

[Armand2REP]

napolean ? as he fled away from the door step of mosco ,sorry but u r not so strong as u think of yourself ,actually u r nobody without nato ,may be u can intemedate small african nation with urs millitary but india is in different league all together.

Bad news for you in this scenario, India is not an expeditionary force while France is. We would have thousands of troops there, set up an airbase and SAMP-T batteries making a huge protection bubble. Anything that entered it would be destroyed. Only way to break it is to attrite the air shield taking heavy IAF losses to gain air superiority. The real question is, how many planes would IAF lose before they can start bombing French positions. Once it goes into scores of aircraft and several ships lost, I think they would take a step back and go the diplomatic route. If IAF don't mind losing hundreds of planes and dozens of ships, France will lose for sure. We are not the US to keep such a supply chain.