I think PLAN would start small - first get a foothold - probably in the Island farthest from the mainland - send in a regiment strength of Marines to prepare a toehold - then push through an Engineering brigade and another regiment of light armor. Once the basic defenses (SAM, AA and anti-Ship missile batteries) are up, they can push in a division to complete their foothold.
To understand any operations one has to understand, apart from the opposition, the terrain.
The terrain may allow a 'foothold' but armour, light or otherwise, as I understand, is definitely, would be a waste of resources.
Have we considered the artillery support and the numbers required?
When the 'toehold' operation is on, would India be inactive?
The route will be, as I speculated earlier, the railroad they are building from south-western PRC border to the Chinese-built port of Dawei in Burma. From there they will use civvy boats to send in the expeditionary forces.
A regiment strength infantry force - sure - they can use a container ship to reach near Great Nicobar and then deploy fishing boats, trawlers etc and reach the shore in the cover of darkness. The larger forces later on cannot remain undetected, but they can provide air cover for these.
When the assault of the 'toehold' operations is on, it will require artillery support. But then there will be no artillery support till there is adequate of a 'beachhead' for deployment of artillery. Therefore, in the interim, one has to depend on naval gun support in the classical beachhead ops. Therefore, my question is that how many naval ships have guns?
If civil boats or container ships are used, how will the organise the gun support required for securing the gun support?
A regiment being carried requires adequate number of ships and if they come in penny packets in a variety of crafts, the command and control in just getting them to assault and then reorganise on the beach will be one huge combat management issue.
It will be rare if a beachhead ops can be completed in one night under the cover of darkness!
When detected, the reaction of the international community will be the same as against Pakistan in Kargil 1998 - "swift and complete condemnation and all MORAL support to India" ... The USA might do some sabre-rattling and threaten PRC with dire consequences if the try to invade Diego Garcia - but that's it!
If Kargil was lost by India or the fact that Pakistan came a cropper, how did it affect US' geostrategic equation? Since it did not, they did not care who won or the fact that India won. All the US was worried is that there should be no nuclear exchange!
In the Indian Ocean Region, US rules supreme. The US Fifth Fleet at Bahrien and the Seventh Fleet are basically to ensure the Persian Gulf, East Africa and all of Indian Ocean are 'sanitised' of anti US geo strategic interest.
US would hardly allow a 'competitor' i.e. China to have a foothold in the Indian Ocean in any form.
That is the difference.
Depends upon the financial and millitary situation of the time. Given current trends, most of the western nations are too deeply tied to PRC - they are either in debt or have too much investment riding in Chinese markets. So, the last thing they would want is an escalation to full fledged war - so they would like to mediate between PRC and India and ask for a compromise - say PRC give up most of the islands and can only keep the farthest two or some such crap.
US maybe in debt, but China is in no better a position since it is holding much of that debt in US Treasury notes, which are slowly becoming 'Fools Gold'. So, while one may gloat the US sinks, but it is sinking others too and the one who hold the US debt are sinking faster and deeper!!
Honestly, where an empty tanker-ship floating through the ocean, reaches Bombay shores through the Arabian sea, despite three levels of Indian maritime defence (IN, ICG and Mumbai police), then what's to unlikely about a planned PLAN marine secret attack on Great Nicobar - the island furthest from the mainland, with very little recon and defense patrols?
I agree on that.
However, when an expeditionary force is mounted it is not just one blip on the radar!
It then becomes 'chaotic' on the screen and no expeditionary force can be mounted without info being leaked. And in this case, the US would be very interested and their resources are greater than India!
Again, your question assumes that India would find out about the invasion before the landing and can intercept the PLAN landing boats - I do not agree.
No contest.
But the US would be very interested!
Yes - that is the entire premise - the A&N will be done in the cover of two pronged attacks - in the west by Pakistan and in the NE by PRC.
Now work out the manner in which things will be falling in place.
As explained before - through rail roads from PRC border - with the help of Burmese Junta - they will off course have "plausible deniability".
Easier said and done.
Move a force by rail or road and realise how all come to know of it!
Of course it will be detected, but you won't be ready for it as there is nothing to suspect. It already got close to island this year.
108th is based at Port Blair, not Car Nicobar. There are no warships that operate under the A&N command area to stop it, just patrol, logistics and tank landing boats. Those boats would be mostly wiped out in the air raid. No way to get those troops to Car Nicobar then.
Agni doesn't have a high enough CEP to use conventional warheads. It would be pretty ineffectual and a waste of India's nuclear deterrent. US and France are the only two countries that have the missile accuracy to make a hit and we don't. India getting into a nuclear war with France would be pretty funny since they can't hit it.
FYI... don't matter
Since Agni would never be used, not worried about that. CdG would be hanging outside detection range until IN is alerted and would launch immediate air raids on Port Blair. Car Nicobar would already be flying the French flag so no airbases for India in region to use. Shooting down paratroopers is EASY.
Sorry, but India never bought refueling kits for her fighters. MKI, tankers, anything that goes up will be detected by AWACs and intercepted. If India takes it to attacks from the mainland, we will launch Scalp and Apache cruise missiles at subcontinent airbases to shut them down. Once Car Nicobar AFB is secure, we will be ferrying Rafales from Saint Denis AFB, running an airbridge and supply convoys from Reunion. You could try hunting those down, but they will be thousands of kilometres from the mainland.
Nope, IAF don't have buddy pods.
Well, French Marines come with Mistral and Roland 3 SAMs so anyone flying low enough to drop dumb bombs will be shot down. Once the follow-up fleet gets there, they will drop off 2 SAMP-T batteries so you can forget about anything flying close to the island. There really are no options when you don't have air superiority.
You don't need spell check to know the difference between cursing and cruising since it wouldn't pick it up.
Taking Car Nicobar is simple if you got suprise. Taking Port Blair would be next to impossible with its garrison which is why I didn't select it as a target. The assertion was only the US could take a single island of the chain, well it is actually US + France are the only ones who could. Set up an impenetrable SAM defence with a working airbase along with a carrier and India would be unable to mount a retake. If China started cruising an LPD there would be an immediate Indian mobilisation preventing such a scenario. Once China gets a fleet that can force a landing, India has something to be worried about.
Who is that?
I find it funny why France has to attack A&N.
France, even if it wants to do so, will not be able to sustain logistically.
Too hypothetical and far fetched!
