Can India do a Falklands war type campaign if PLAN takes over Andamans

[arya]

china has no-reason to start a direct or indirect war against India at this time. also, pakistan is not foolish enough to wage a war against India for the cause of Chinese. both china and pak have their own set of problems rather than waging war against India. all they can do is sing some duets behind a tree when china offers free weapons to pakistan.

world is not as simple as you say . life is only for stronger

 

[ace009]

I guess most people thinks this is NOT going to happen. Or as someone mentioned earlier in this thread - this cannot happen and if it does happen, then we "deserve it". So, we "deserved" Kargil and Nath La and everything else that has gone on ...

My idea is not to figure out "if this is going to happen", but to figure out how (assuming it does happen) it happens and then what India can do about it.

As for Why the PLAN will do it, I think it would be to give them a base of operations in that area of Indian Ocean. It will also let them command the Malacca straits and with naval bases in Burma, Great Nicobar and probably in SL too, they can pretty much control traffic across the IOR.

 

[Yusuf]

Ace,

I understand what you are trying to convey, but india is not Argentina. India has a better equipped armed forces. The Chinese as of now are scared of Indian Navy so to speak and vary of every move IN makes including symposiums. If we take the 2020 timeline, india will be a three, may be four carrier navy. Host of other acquisitions including latest anti submarine platforms. The Chinese navy is just not good enough to mount such an operation and no I am not underestimating them.

In all this don't forget the Americans will not allow China any foothold in IOR and expect them to be on our side with advanced intel. Who knows by 2020 we may have a base in Vietnam and that itself is a major threat to china which would be better off minding itself in the south china sea than bay of Bengal.

 

[binayak95]

The Question should not have been asked about Great Nicobar islands. The IN and IAF alone will thrash any Chinese attempts to invade the island.

A possibility may be the Chinese attacking and capturing other small island nations in the Indian Ocean Region such as Seychelles or Madagascar.
Then, it may prove necessary to initiate a Falklands type operation. Remember, we already are in the process of building naval bases there.

 

[Armand2REP]

While France is landing its troops in A&N islands, what do you think Indian forces will be doing?

Did you say "Mistral in peaceful stance can sneak up and launch a battalion before you even know it is on the island"????? Bang bang and it is over in an hour??? lol... excellent dream man.

Air craft carrier is not a toy which you can put it into your pocket and sneak it in without getting noticed. Mistrel will be accompanied by a complement of ships and it is too big to get unnoticed. If a CWG passing through the sea near the A&N islands, every movement of that CWG will be monitored. And, do you think you can take out a well fortified and completely manned and well guarded tri-service military base with a battalion with size 300–1,300 (I donno the size of French battalion)? Not possible even in dreams.

Mistral cruised 50km from Car Nicobar a few months ago, traveling a couple hours to the island and dropping off troops would have been childs play. You don't announce your attack, like Pearl Harbour. The garrison of Car Nicobar is NOTHING. A few base guards with light arms and civil police. It could be taken by a company much less a battalion, you only need the 1000 men to secure positions as there are 30,000 people on the island. Mistral can drop off her troops and equipment within an hour and be gone before India responds, which would take several days. By the time they do, there would be an operating air base with a couple Rafale squadrons, ATL 2s along with the CDG battle group with several thousand more troops. The airport at Port Blair would be dusted so no aircover except from Viraat and subcontinent bases. Stick SAMP-Ts on the island and there is constant area SAM coverage.

Now for the Indian counter attack... Since India has forgone a tanker replacement, refueling will be spotty at best. Air power will have to be provided by MKI as it is the only plane with the range to be effective. Unfortunately, it doesn't have the stand-off weapons to do much about it. With SAMP-T, it can't get close and with Rafale from land and sea would attrite the force before it could get within range. IN amphibous force is too small even if it got there to dislodge 3-4k marines. The key for France to keep the island would be securing supply routes and with Reunion to the South West, convoys could travel well out of the range of subcontinent patrols. With the capture of Car Nicobar, France would control the choke points for all of the worlds major shipping lanes, Malacca-PG-Suez-Cape of Good Hope... looking at it that way, we should pay a base rent. That is one important piece of land.

 

[Tshering22]

Quite frankly speaking in terms of foreign policy, even Burma doesn't want to depend so much on China compared to CW days when people wouldn't hesitate to totally rely on Soviet Union. Their clandestine purchase of Dhruvs from us as well as preference for Russian weapons despite cheaper yet modern Chinese alternatives means they want to balance out the CCP.

Hence eve hypothetically Burma wouldn't be interested to side totally with China against us. Pakistan might though and you could consider moving the battlefield to Western Command instead whereby China could bully CARs (via SCO) and use a supply route directly through Karachi or Gwadar straight towards Lakshadweep.

Battle at BOB though seems unlikely due to the reasons that Kunal explained brilliantly as well as above-mentioned reasons.

 

[utubekhiladi]

Mistral cruised 50km from Car Nicobar a few months ago, traveling a couple hours to the island and dropping off troops would have been childs play. You don't announce your attack, like Pearl Harbour. The garrison of Car Nicobar is NOTHING. A few base guards with light arms and civil police. It could be taken by a company much less a battalion, you only need the 1000 men to secure positions as there are 30,000 people on the island. Mistral can drop off her troops and equipment within an hour and be gone before India responds, which would take several days. By the time they do, there would be an operating air base with a couple Rafale squadrons, ATL 2s along with the CDG battle group with several thousand more troops. The airport at Port Blair would be dusted so no aircover except from Viraat and subcontinent bases. Stick SAMP-Ts on the island and there is constant area SAM coverage.

Now for the Indian counter attack... Since India has forgone a tanker replacement, refueling will be spotty at best. Air power will have to be provided by MKI as it is the only plane with the range to be effective. Unfortunately, it doesn't have the stand-off weapons to do much about it. With SAMP-T, it can't get close and with Rafale from land and sea would attrite the force before it could get within range. IN amphibous force is too small even if it got there to dislodge 3-4k marines. The key for France to keep the island would be securing supply routes and with Reunion to the South West, convoys could travel well out of the range of subcontinent patrols. With the capture of Car Nicobar, France would control the choke points for all of the worlds major shipping lanes, Malacca-PG-Suez-Cape of Good Hope... looking at it that way, we should pay a base rent. That is one important piece of land.

Oh my Goodness, i hope you are not one of those tony clans fan.

first of all, what do you think Indian navy might be doing by then? do you really think that Mistral can get past more than 50 different IN warships that are operating in that area?

Even if mistral manages to launch her so called 1000 troops (well lets make it 5000) troops on the Island and then what? it will be slaughter house. if i was commander i would not send fighters, i would send a dozen of agni's and neutralize all enemy's concentration in that island.

if Agni is not an option then i would call in neighboring IN ships to target enemy positions on that island using missiles such as brahmos.

if both of above is not an option then i will send tu-142 bombers from Chennai

if none of the above is an option then i will call in 'paratroopers'. our An32/IL-76 can airdrop them. (and this can be done within an half day)

there are 100's of options for Indian Armed forces.

so it is a sin to say "dropping off troops would have been childs play".... LOL

cursing during wartime and cursing during peacetime are two different things. lets see if mistral can cruise as close as 50km near that island during wartime.

 

[Tshering22]

Oh my Goodness, i hope you are not one of those tony clans fan.

It is TOM CLANCY man.. not TONY CLANS...

 

[Godless-Kafir]

world is not as simple as you say . life is only for stronger

Life is only for the stronger? Then how come you are not dead yet? Hitler was only 5:4ft and i did not know he should have taken steroids and worked out.

 

[ace009]

If India has to do a campaign outside it's own islands, then it would be on the OTHER SIDE of the Falklands war - i.e. it would be in the position of Britain - an overseas offensive campaign with little support from nearby locations.
I can see how Armand thinks that 2 squadrons of Rafale can destroy all MKI - he thinks MKI is full of shit! I wonder what he will say about the professional fighter aircraft rankings which puts MKI right behind F-22 and at par with EF, ABOVE Rafale!
As for CDG and Mistral, I wonder if France would like to send them in the IOR to take over Great Nicobar or Car Nicobar EVER. They were strangely reluctant to let the Mistral or the CDG go anywhere NEAR Libyan coast - and that's supposed to be their backyard!

France pulls Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier from Libya

Aug 4, 2011, 10:18 GMT

As for China, without Burmese help, they cannot do anything in the Andaman Nicobar islands - I accept that is true.

 

[utubekhiladi]

It is TOM CLANCY man.. not TONY CLANS...

Thanks for the corrections...................

 

[Armand2REP]

Oh my, to announce the intention to take the island so you can reinforce it? You think anyone including China would be that dumb? IN patrols in the area are infrequent in peace time, by the time you get a ship on scene it will be too late. IN don't put 50 ships to sea in a year, much less at once.

You call in Agni, you risk 100 MT of nukes on your cities. Going nuclear isn't an option. There is no sea launched LACM Brahmos.

So you are left with your last option of Tu-142, an obsolete aircraft to say the least. CdG will be off running fake exercises in the vicinity and will quickly get air cover when India is alerted so forget that. Call in paratroopers get shot down by Rafale. There are few options for India once the only airbase in the region is lost.

It is spelled cruising, not cursing. India won't know it is war until after the fact. They would never suspect the French because it would never happen. But you should be prepared for the Chinese to do the same anyway.

 

[ace009]

Actually I think Armand you are taking things too lightly.
Firstly, Agni can carry conventional warheads - no need for India to go nuclear.
Secondly, How many paratroopers can Rafales shoot down, especially if the paratrooper landings are supported by MKIs and Mig 29Ks?
Thirdly, For CDG to spend extended periods of time near Indian shores without alerting the IN, will be considered rude and suspicious, especially if it is done in force.
Fourthly, France has the following naval strength -

The French Navy operates one nuclear powered aircraft carrier, three helicopter carriers, two landing platform docks, four air defence frigates (FFG), nine anti-submarine frigates and six SSNs.

The Indian Navy has the following strength -

Centaur class aircraft carrier - 1

Rajput class destroyers (Kashin-II class) - 5

Godavari class frigates - 3

Veer class corvettes - 12

Abhay class corvettes (Pauk class corvettes) - 4

Khukri class corvettes - 4

Delhi class destroyers - 3

Kora class corvettes - 3

Brahmaputra class frigates - 3

Talwar class frigates - 3

Shivalik class frigates - 1

Kumbhir class landing ships ( Polish Polnocny class landing ships) - 5

Now, I am NOT a naval expert, but I believe that no matter what Armand says, IN is much bigger and stronger especially in it's backyard.

As for Rafales, I would like to see what Weg would say about Armand's post ...

 

[Yusuf]

Talking about renting AnN, I think if at all a grand alliance does come up in Asia pitted against the Chinese, we could see these islands as a base for this alliance. I don't think any other place will be more suitable than this.

 

[utubekhiladi]

IN patrols in the area are infrequent in peace time, by the time you get a ship on scene it will be too late. IN don't put 50 ships to sea in a year, much less at once.

who told you that? we have operating bases of army/navy/air forces nearby 24/7. so there is no way any French fishing boat is going to go un-detected.

FYI:
-108 Infantry Brigade of the Indian Army, which in turn includes the 21 Bihar, is deployed to the A&N Command
-The IAF has in the recent past operated its frontline SU-30MKI air superiority aircraft from its bases in Car Nicobar islands
-Not to mention the presence of IN ships as we have operation ports in there.

You call in Agni, you risk 100 MT of nukes on your cities. Going nuclear isn't an option.

you see, i am not from pakistan to think about exploding dirty bomb on my own soil. as ace009 have said, i meant conventional warhead like CL-20 and not nuclear warhead. even if we take 100 nukes first WE WILL STILL RETALIATE. to retaliate we won't need 100 MT nukes, we will need only one nuke in KT to mount incalculable damages to any nation.

FYI: DRDO just finished development of CL-20

Call in paratroopers get shot down by Rafale.

And where exactly will your rafales hide when i launch long range missiles from delhi and target all air bases on those islands? this is not libya my friend, so do not expect that your rafales will be facing only classic mig21's and 23's. as Ace009 said, how many paratroopers will rafale be able to shoot down?

plus, do not underestimate that our Mig29ks and mki's will hesitate to reach those islands; both Mig29k and su30mki can aerial refuel and buddy-refuel. plus they can always have the company of AWACS and air-tankers. mki is itself an mini AWACS. what mig29ks needs to do is escort su30mki half way by offering buddy refueling and then return to the base while su30mki will continue its mission. mki's will attack the island with full force and will raise everything to the ground that is non-indian within couple of hour.

(yes, su30mki can buddy refuel; this is one of the many secrets of our mki)

So you are left with your last option of Tu-142, an obsolete aircraft to say the least.

if it can fly and drop biggest bomb that it can carry on the enemy then it is a threat to you. Guess what? even our AN-32 can do all weather all day carpet bombing. and this is not my last option, there are 1000's of other options too.

It is spelled cruising, not cursing.

my browser do not come with spell-checker and me no born english and i am proud that i am not english.

I am not saying that the island cannot be taken, but i am trying to say that taking the island is not a child's play.

you are a fan of TOM CLANCY don't you?

 

[Yusuf]

Armand, timeline 2020, we could well be using Rafales against yours if at all you think AnN is a good place to set shop!!

 

[Ray]

I have a few questions;

1. What would be the force required by China to capture Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) Islands/

2. How (the route(s)) will this force reach Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) coast?

3. Can this Chinese force reach Andaman and Nicobar (A&N)undetected?

4. If the Chinese Force cannot reach undetected, then when detected, what will be the Indian and other interested nations reactions to include the US, and the littoral nations?

5. Will 'interested' country allow an independent Chinese presence (assuming that China captures A&N) in the Indian Ocean?

6. If China is interested in capturing A&N, can it be in total secrecy and India be surprised?

7. If not, what would be the reaction in the overall context, in the international political scene?

8. Will the other fronts not also get activated along China?

I saw a post that said that PLAN would come in from Myanmar. How would the expeditionary force reach Myanmar without detection the the India and the US and be allowed to assemble in Myanmar?

 

[ace009]

I have a few questions;

1. What would be the force required by China to capture Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) Islands/

I think PLAN would start small - first get a foothold - probably in the Island farthest from the mainland - send in a regiment strength of Marines to prepare a toehold - then push through an Engineering brigade and another regiment of light armor. Once the basic defenses (SAM, AA and anti-Ship missile batteries) are up, they can push in a division to complete their foothold.

2. How (the route(s)) will this force reach Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) coast?

The route will be, as I speculated earlier, the railroad they are building from south-western PRC border to the Chinese-built port of Dawei in Burma. From there they will use civvy boats to send in the expeditionary forces.

3. Can this Chinese force reach Andaman and Nicobar (A&N)undetected?

A regiment strength infantry force - sure - they can use a container ship to reach near Great Nicobar and then deploy fishing boats, trawlers etc and reach the shore in the cover of darkness. The larger forces later on cannot remain undetected, but they can provide air cover for these.

4. If the Chinese Force cannot reach undetected, then when detected, what will be the Indian and other interested nations reactions to include the US, and the littoral nations?

When detected, the reaction of the international community will be the same as against Pakistan in Kargil 1998 - "swift and complete condemnation and all MORAL support to India" ... The USA might do some sabre-rattling and threaten PRC with dire consequences if the try to invade Diego Garcia - but that's it!

5. Will 'interested' country allow an independent Chinese presence (assuming that China captures A&N) in the Indian Ocean?

Depends upon the financial and millitary situation of the time. Given current trends, most of the western nations are too deeply tied to PRC - they are either in debt or have too much investment riding in Chinese markets. So, the last thing they would want is an escalation to full fledged war - so they would like to mediate between PRC and India and ask for a compromise - say PRC give up most of the islands and can only keep the farthest two or some such crap.

6. If China is interested in capturing A&N, can it be in total secrecy and India be surprised?

Honestly, where an empty tanker-ship floating through the ocean, reaches Bombay shores through the Arabian sea, despite three levels of Indian maritime defence (IN, ICG and Mumbai police), then what's to unlikely about a planned PLAN marine secret attack on Great Nicobar - the island furthest from the mainland, with very little recon and defense patrols?

7. If not, what would be the reaction in the overall context, in the international political scene?

Again, your question assumes that India would find out about the invasion before the landing and can intercept the PLAN landing boats - I do not agree.

8. Will the other fronts not also get activated along China?

Yes - that is the entire premise - the A&N will be done in the cover of two pronged attacks - in the west by Pakistan and in the NE by PRC.

I saw a post that said that PLAN would come in from Myanmar. How would the expeditionary force reach Myanmar without detection the the India and the US and be allowed to assemble in Myanmar?

As explained before - through rail roads from PRC border - with the help of Burmese Junta - they will off course have "plausible deniability".

 

[Known_Unknown]

Mistral cruised 50km from Car Nicobar a few months ago, traveling a couple hours to the island and dropping off troops would have been childs play. You don't announce your attack, like Pearl Harbour. The garrison of Car Nicobar is NOTHING. A few base guards with light arms and civil police. It could be taken by a company much less a battalion, you only need the 1000 men to secure positions as there are 30,000 people on the island. Mistral can drop off her troops and equipment within an hour and be gone before India responds, which would take several days. By the time they do, there would be an operating air base with a couple Rafale squadrons, ATL 2s along with the CDG battle group with several thousand more troops. The airport at Port Blair would be dusted so no aircover except from Viraat and subcontinent bases. Stick SAMP-Ts on the island and there is constant area SAM coverage.

Now for the Indian counter attack... Since India has forgone a tanker replacement, refueling will be spotty at best. Air power will have to be provided by MKI as it is the only plane with the range to be effective. Unfortunately, it doesn't have the stand-off weapons to do much about it. With SAMP-T, it can't get close and with Rafale from land and sea would attrite the force before it could get within range. IN amphibous force is too small even if it got there to dislodge 3-4k marines. The key for France to keep the island would be securing supply routes and with Reunion to the South West, convoys could travel well out of the range of subcontinent patrols. With the capture of Car Nicobar, France would control the choke points for all of the worlds major shipping lanes, Malacca-PG-Suez-Cape of Good Hope... looking at it that way, we should pay a base rent. That is one important piece of land.

Roflmao. So the supply line for the French troops on Andaman and Nicobar is going to extend from the south of France around the Cape of Good Hope, all the way to Reunion and then to the Andamans? Hmm...that's only....what, 23,000 km long? ROFLMAO!

That's compared with India's supply line of 1500 km. You Frenchies seem to have forgotten that this isn't the 17th century anymore, and India actually has a navy this time....and a pretty good one at that.

India doesn't even have to fire a shot to take the island back. Sure, with enough forces and stealth, any island can be captured. However, after the initial surprise has worn off, all India has to do is enforce a naval blockade and sit it out until your troops starve to death.

 

[Kunal Biswas]

I think PLAN would start small - first get a foothold - probably in the Island farthest from the mainland - send in a regiment strength of Marines to prepare a toehold - then push through an Engineering brigade and another regiment of light armor ( ONLY INFANTRY NOT ARMOUR CAN BE DISMOUNT FROM TANKER ). A regiment strength infantry force ( SPECIAL FORCE ) - sure - they can use a container ship to reach near Great Nicobar and then deploy fishing boats, trawlers etc and reach the shore in the cover of darkness. The larger forces later on cannot remain undetected

Edited Part sounds bit realistic..

But again do you know the island and its observation posts ?, Its Military Base with a major command there..

Also we have Spy network in all near by ports in Burma and others, Any military movement can easily warned before they even sailed..

India doesn't even have to fire a shot to take the island back. Sure, with enough forces and stealth, any island can be captured. However, after the initial surprise has worn off, all India has to do is enforce a naval blockade and sit it out until your troops starve to death.

Armand is smoking weed, Grab your Popcorn..